RUNOFF & FLOOD FREQUENCY

ANALYSIS
(WATERSHED MANAGEMENT)

UNIT – III

BVRIT Rambabu Palaka, Assistant Professor

 Learning Objectives
1. Watershed Delineation
a) Data Collection
b) Preparation of Contours
c) Watershed Delineation
2. Runoff Computations from a Watershed
a) Empirical Formulae
b) Rational Method
c) SCS-CN Method
3. Flood Frequency Analysis
a) Weibull Method
b) Gumbell Method
c) Log Pearson Method
 Watershed Delineation
Delineation is a process of dividing the watershed into discrete
land and channel segments to analyze watershed behavior.

It means drawing lines on a map to identify a watershed’s

boundaries. These are typically drawn on topographic maps
using information from contour lines.

Contour lines are lines of equal elevation, so any point along a

given contour line is the same elevation.
 Watershed Delineation
Source of Data:
 Toposheets from Survey of India
 Digital Elevation Model (DEM)

DEM:
It is a digital model or 3D representation of a terrain's surface created from terrain
elevation data which can be obtained through
a) Land Surveying using Auto Level, Theodolite, Total Station, GPS, DGPS etc.
b) Remote Sensing
a) Aerial Photography
b) LIDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) that measures distance by
illuminating a target with a laser and analyzing the reflected light.
c) Satellite Images eg. CartoDEM
LAND SURVEYING
(Total Station, GPS, DGPS)
 Land Surveying

X Y Z
Location (Longitude) (Latitude) (Altitude)
R1 2050.118 1500 99.606
R2 2042.987 1406.068 99.825
R3 2056.467 1421.42 100.597
R4 2076.102 1430.173 100.457
R5 2096.715 1450.553 100.732
R6 2120.572 1463.35 100.614
R7 2151.297 1473.275 100.753
R8 2183.526 1491.928 100.165 Point Data
R9 2201.82 1505.583 101.198
Data downloaded from Total Station
Contouring by Square Method
 Land Surveying

3D Digital Model

Contours (Vector Data)

REMOTE SENSING
CartoDEM (30 m resolution) – Raster Data

Cartosat-1 was launched by PSLV-C6

on 5 May 2005
from Satish Dhawan Space Centre at Sriharikota
CartoDEM (30 m resolution)
Hillshade
Elevation
Contours
Streams
Streams
3D Model
RUNOFF
 Runoff Computations
Heavy losses and huge damages taking place in a watershed
due to occurrence of flood.

Flood is produced due to heavy rainfall and its estimation is

dependent on
 Rainfall Intensity
 Type of soil
 Shape and size of watershed
 Conditions of watershed at the time of rainfall
 Slope of waterway
 Runoff Computations
Methods of Estimation of Runoff:
1. Empirical Formulae
2. Envelope Curve
3. Physical Indication of Past Floods
4. Rational Method
5. Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Chart
6. Rating Curve
7. Unit Hydrograph Method
8. SCS-CN Method
9. Flood Frequency Analysis
 Runoff Computations
Empirical Formulae:
1. Dicken’s formula
Q = CA3/4
Where,
Q = Design Flood (m3/s)
A = Area of Catchment in KM2
C = Dicken’s Constant
North Indian Plains 6
North Indian Hilly Regions 11-14
Central India 14-28
Coastal Andhra & Orissa 22-28
 Runoff Computations
Empirical Formulae:
2. Ryve’s formula
Q = CA2/3
Where,
Q = Design Flood (m3/s)
A = Area of Catchment in KM2

C = Ryve’s Constant
Areas within 80 km from east coast 6.8
Areas within 80-160 km from east coast 8.5
Limited areas near hills 10.2
 Runoff Computations
Empirical Formulae:
3. Inglis formula
124 A
Q
A  10.4
Where,
Q = Design Flood (m3/s)
A = Area of Catchment in KM2

It is based on data of watershed in Western Ghats in Maharastra

 Runoff Computations

Major Limitation of using Empirical

Formulae is the subjective decision about
the values C to be adopted
 Runoff Computations
Envelope Curves:

Kanwarsain and Kaprov, after

collecting a large amount of
data from rivers of India,
presented two envelop curves
as shown in figure.
 Runoff Computations
Physical Indication of Past Floods:

Ancient monuments situated near the banks of river always bear the marks or
records of the past floods.

The flood discharge is obtained from the Formula, Q = A.V

Where
A = Cross section of Valley during dry season
V = Velocity of flow can be calculated from Manning’s N

Usually, factor of safety about 1.5 is used to obtain maximum flood

 Runoff Computations
Rational Method:
It is most effective in urban areas with drainage areas of less than 200 acres. The
method is typically used to determine the size of storm sewers, channels, and other
drainage structures.
Q = (C.I.A) / 3.6
Where
C = Runoff Coefficient
I = Rainfall Intensity in mm/h
A = Area of Catchment in KM2

Note: Rainfall Intensity (i) can be found from the Intensity–Duration–Frequency

(IDF) curves corresponding to Time of Concentration and Return Period
Runoff Computations
If IDF curves are not available,

where,
P = Rainfall
tR = Duration of Rainfall
tc = Time of Concentration

If Time of Concentration is not

known ic = P / tR
 Runoff Computations
Runoff Co-efficient (C):
 Runoff Computations
Rational Method:
Assumptions:
 The drainage basin characteristics are fairly
homogeneous
 Rainfall duration equal to the time of concentration
results in the greatest peak discharge

The time of concentration is the time required for runoff

to travel from the most distant point of the watershed to
the outlet.

Time of Concentration, tc = Hydraulic Length / Velocity

 Runoff Computations
Rational Method:
Time of Concentration can be found using
 Runoff Computations
Probable Maximum Precipitation Chart:
PMP Charts have been prepared by Meteorological Department of India for some
states such as Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Rajasthan using following methods.

1. Meteorological method
2. Statistical Study of Rainfall data,
PMP = Avg. Rainfall + K.σ

where
K = Frequency Factor depends on statistical distribution series, no. of years
record and the return period.
σ = Standard Deviation
 Runoff Computations
Rating Curve:
It is a graph of discharge versus stage for a given point on a stream, usually at
gauging stations, where the stream discharge is measured across the stream
channel with a flow meter.
 Runoff Computations
Unit Hydrograph Method:
It is a linear model of the catchment which is used to find out the volume of direct
surface runoff (DSR) due to 1 cm of rainfall excess. If rainfall comes to the
catchment producing 2 cm of excess rainfall, the ordinates of the DSR will be twice
as much as the UH ordinates and volume of DSR will be two times of the volume of
unit hydrograph.

Assumptions:
1. The rainfall is of spatially uniform intensity with in its specified time
2. The effective rainfall is uniformly distributed throughout the whole area of
drainage basin
 Runoff Computations
Unit Hydrograph Method:
 Runoff Computations
SCS – CN Method:
The curve number method was developed by the USDA Natural Resources
Conservation Service, which was formerly called the Soil Conservation Service or
SCS.

The curve number is based on the area's hydrologic soil

group, land use, treatment and hydrologic condition.
 Runoff Computations
SCS – CN Method:

Where
P = Rainfall
Ia = Initial Abstractions
S = Potential maximum retention after runoff begins
Hydrologic Soil Groups:
HSG Group A (low runoff potential): Soils with high infiltration rates
even when thoroughly wetted. (final infiltration rate greater than 0.3
inches/hour).

HSG Group B: Soils with moderate infiltration rates when thoroughly

wetted. (final infiltration rate of 0.15 to 0.30 inches/hour)

HSG Group C: Soils with slow infiltration rates when thoroughly wetted.
(final infiltration rate 0.05 to 0.15 inches/hour)

HSG Group D (high runoff potential): Soils with very slow infiltration
rates when thoroughly wetted. (final infiltration rate less than 0.05
inches/hour).
FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS
(Estimation of Design Flood)
 Flood Frequency Analysis
Return Period:
A return period, also known as a recurrence interval (sometimes repeat
interval) is an estimate of the likelihood of flood or a river discharge flow to
occur.

For example, a 10 year flood has a 1/10=0.1 or 10% chance of being

exceeded in any one year. This does not mean that if a flood with such a
return period occurs, then the next will occur in about ten years' time -
instead, it means that, in any given year, there is a 10% chance that it will
happen, regardless of when the last similar event was.
 Flood Frequency Analysis
Return Period is a statistical measurement typically based on historic data
and is usually used for risk analysis (e.g. to decide whether a project should
be allowed to go forward in a zone of a certain risk, or to design structures
to withstand an event with a certain return period).

Methods:
1. Weibull Method
2. Gumbell Method
3. Log Pearson Method
 Flood Frequency Analysis
Weibull Method
In probability theory and statistics, it is a continuous probability distribution

 Most commonly used method

 If ‘n’ values are distributed uniformly between 0 and 100 percent
probability, then there must be n+1 intervals, n–1 between the data
points and 2 at the ends.

Probability, P = m / n+1

where, m = rank
 Rainfall Frequency Analysis – Weibull’s Method

Descending order

Return Period
Rainfall Arranged Data Probability,
Year Rank, m (Years)
(mm) (mm) P = m/(n+1)
Tr = 1/P

2009 546 945 1 0.142857143 7.00

2010 857 857 2 0.285714286 3.50

2011 567 661 3 0.428571429 2.33

2012 661 567 4 0.571428571 1.75

2013 945 546 5 0.714285714 1.40

2014 423 423 6 0.857142857 1.17

 Rainfall Frequency Analysis
Logarithmic Curve
(Weibull's Method)
1800

1600

1400 y = 237.69ln(x) + 518.25

Rainfall 1200
(mm)
1000

800

600

400

200

0
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101

Return Period (Years)

 Flood Frequency Analysis
Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution Method:

E.J. Gumbel in 1941 was consider that annual flood peaks are extreme values of
floods in each of the annual series of recorded data. Hence, floods follow the
extreme value distribution.

–y
Probability, P = 1 – e –e
Return Period, T = 1/P

Where
y = reduced variate = [1.282 (Q – Q) / σ] + 0.577
e = base of Naperian Logarithm
 Flood Frequency Analysis
Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution Method:

Flood Magnitude for a given Return Period, QT = Q + KT σ

Where
Frequency Factor,

T = Return Period

Q = Mean
σ = Standard Deviation
 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -
Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution Method
Return Period
Probability, P
Year Rainfall (mm) Reduced Variate, y (Years)
Tr = 1/P

2014 423 -0.99 0.93 1.07

2009 546 -0.20 0.71 1.42

2011 567 -0.07 0.66 1.52

2012 661 0.54 0.44 2.27

2010 857 1.80 0.15 6.58

2013 945 2.38 0.09 11.26

Mean 666.32
–y
S.D. 198.80 Probability, P = 1 – e –e
 Rainfall Frequency Analysis
Gumbel’s Extreme Value Distribution Method
1600
y = 208.1ln(x) + 459.46
1400

1200

1000
Rainfall
(mm) 800

600

400

200

0
1.00 10.00 100.00

Return Period (Years)

 Flood Frequency Analysis
Log Pearson Type III Distribution Method:

Person (1930) developed this method. In this method, it is recommended to convert

the data series to logarithms and then compute the following.
1. Compute Logarithms of flow log Q
2. Estimate Average of log Q
3. Compute Standard Deviation σ log Q
4. Compute Skew Coefficient,
Cs = (N Σ (log Q – log Q)3) / (N-1)(N-2) (σ log Q)3
5. QT = log Q + K (σ log Q)
where K = log Pearson Frequency Factor based on Cs & Return Period
 Rainfall Frequency Analysis -
Log Pearson Type III Distribution Method
Year Rainfall (mm) log Rainfall
2014 423 2.63
2009 546 2.74
2011 567 2.75
2012 661 2.82
2010 857 2.93
2013 945 2.98
log Mean 2.81
log S.D. 0.13

QT = log Q + K (σ log Q)
 Reference
Watershed Management
by
Madan Mohan Das
Mimi Das Saikia

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