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Corporate Finance Cheatsheet Zhiwei New
Corporate Finance Cheatsheet Zhiwei New
1:
Corporate
Governance
&
Objective
of
Corporate
Finance
1.
Rf
investment
must
have
no
default
risk
–
E.g.
US
govt-‐issued
T-‐Bond
Betas
are
weighted
averages
Lecture
4:
Measuring
Investment
Returns
Objective
in
decision-‐making:
Maximizing
the
value
of
the
firm
(ST:
2.
There
can
be
no
uncertainty
about
reinvestment
rates
–
Use
zero
coupon
Bottom-‐up
VS
top-‐down
beta
Cash
flow
analysis
Maximizing
stock
price)
security
with
the
same
maturity
as
the
CF
being
analyzed,
longer
maturity
the
Top-‐down
beta
(From
regression):
Returns
à
Risk
à
Fundamentals
-‐
Use
“incremental”
cash
flows
relating
to
investment
decision,
rather
than
1.
Stockholder
interests
VS
Management
interests
better.
Bottom-‐up
beta:
total
cash
flows
-‐
Small
stockholders
do
not
go
to
meetings
–
Cost
>
value
of
their
holdings
3.
Should
be
in
the
same
currency
that
CFs
are
estimated
–
Use
govt
bond
rate
1)
Find
out
𝛽!
of
other
firms
in
similar
businesses
from
their
mean/medium
à
WC
=
Current
Assets
–
Current
Liabilities
-‐
Incumbent
management
start
off
with
clear
advantage.
Proxies
that
are
not
with
the
govt
being
the
one
in
control
of
issuing
that
currency
(Or
else
it
might
levered
betas
and
mean/median
D/E
ratios.
à
𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐹 = 𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 1 − 𝑇 + 𝐷𝑒𝑝 − 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 − ∆𝑁𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑊𝐶
voted
become
votes
for
incumbent
management.
lead
to
an
overvaluation
in
currency
due
to
differences
in
inflation
rates)
𝛽! (∆𝑊𝐶 = ∆𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑊𝐶 + ∆𝑁𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑊𝐶)
-‐
Large
institutional
shareholders
can
just
vote
with
their
feet.
4.
If
there
are
multiple
govt
bonds
issued
in
the
same
currency
(e.g.
the
Euro),
𝛽!" (𝐶𝑜𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑡 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ) = !"#!
à
𝑭𝑪𝑭𝑭 = 𝑭𝑪𝑭𝑬 + 𝑰𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒏𝒔𝒆 𝟏 − 𝑻 − 𝑵𝒆𝒕 𝒅𝒆𝒃𝒕 𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒖𝒆
1 − !"
-‐
Large
institutional
investors
just
go
with
incumbent
mgmt.
(avoid
conflict?)
use
the
one
with
lowest
bond
rate.
E.g.
Greece
might
have
a
high
bond
rate
due
𝑰𝒏𝒄𝒓𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒂𝒍 𝑪𝑭 = 𝑭𝑪𝑭𝑭 − 𝑷𝒓𝒆𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒋𝒆𝒄𝒕 𝒔𝒖𝒏𝒌 𝒅𝒆𝒑𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒊𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝑻 +
*Assuming
βNOA
=
0
if
there
is
a
lot
of
cash
and
it
has
zero
sensitivity
to
mkt.
-‐
Directors
are
often
handpicked
by
mgmt/only
hold
token
shares
in
co.
so
to
its
default
risk.
𝑭𝒊𝒙𝒆𝒅 𝒆𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒏𝒔𝒆 𝒂𝒅𝒋𝒖𝒔𝒕𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 𝟏 − 𝑻
*Don’t
bother
about
ALLOCATION.
they
don’t
act
in
S/H
interests/CEOs
of
other
firms
(conflict
of
int)
5.
If
there
is
no
default-‐free
entity
e.g.
in
emerging
market,
adjust
the
local
2)
Take
WA
of
these
𝛽! .
-‐
Use
“time-‐weighted”
returns,
i.e.
value
cash
flows
that
occur
earlier
more
Divisions
don’t
have
market
values,
so
estimate
them.
A)
Obtain
industry
Board
composition
currency
govt
borrowing
rate
for
default
risk
based
on
rating
of
country
bond.
!" !"# !"#$%&!!"#$!!"#! than
cash
flows
that
occur
later
-‐
Are
majority
of
directors
outside
directors?
𝐸. 𝑔. 𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 = 10𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 $𝑏𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑎 − 10𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑈𝑆 𝑇𝑏𝑜𝑛𝑑
averages
of
=
of
publicly
traded
firms
in
each
business.
-‐
Sunk
costs
and
capital
expenditures
should
not
affect
investment
decision
!"#$% !"#"$%"&
!"
-‐
Is
the
chairman
of
the
board
independent
of
the
company?
(Not
CEO
of
co.?)
𝐸. 𝑔. 𝑅! 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑅𝑢𝑝𝑒𝑒𝑠 = 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑡 𝑟𝑢𝑝𝑒𝑒 𝑏𝑜𝑛𝑑 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 − 𝐷𝑒𝑓𝑎𝑢𝑙𝑡 𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑
B)
Obtain
estimated
EV
by
multiplying
revenue
of
division
with
the
average
.
-‐
Might
need
to
recalculate
tax
rates
for
different
years!
!"#$%
-‐
Are
the
compensation
and
audit
committees
composed
entirely
of
outsiders?
For
small
countries
with
no
credit
ratings,
do
the
analysis
in
another
!" !"# General
rule:
Invest
in
projects
with
ROC
>
WACC
-‐
Need
small
boards,
comprised
of
outsiders,
with
independent
chairman
C)
Compute
WA
for
all
of
co’s
assets.
(𝛽!" = 𝛽!" + (𝛽!"# ))
currency
where
it
is
easier
to
get
the
Rf
rate.
(But
need
to
consider
future
E/R)
!" !"
How
managers
might
put
their
own
interests
over
S/H’s
Risk
premium:
3)
Lever
up
using
firm’s
D/E
ratio
-‐
Greenmail:
Managers
of
target
of
hostile
takeover
buy
out
the
potential
1.
The
historical
premium
approach:
A)
Define
time
period
for
estimation.
A)
Using
estimated
EV
and
D/E
ratios
of
comparable
firms,
estimate
the
debt
for
acquirer’s
existing
stake
at
a
price
much
greater
than
the
price
paid
by
the
B)
Calculate
avg
returns
on
a
stock
index.
C)
Calculate
avg
returns
on
a
riskless
all
businesses.
Then
express
each
business
debt
as
%
of
total
estimated
debt.
B)
raider,
for
a
‘standstill’
agreement
security.
D)
Calculate
the
difference.
Adjust
to
co’s
actual
debt.
C)
EV
–
Allocated
debt
=
Estimated
equity.
D)
Find
the
-‐
Golden
parachutes:
Allowing
payment
of
a
lump-‐sum
of
CFs
over
a
period
for
-‐
Go
as
far
back
as
you
can
to
minimize
the
std
error
in
estimate
D/E
ratio
for
each
business.
managers
who
lose
their
jobs
in
a
takeover
-‐
Use
geometric
instead
of
arithmetic
premiums
for
estimates
of
LT
cost
of
Converting
real
cost
of
equity
to
nominal:
-‐
Poison
pills:
A
security,
the
rights
of
which
can
be
triggered
by
a
hostile
equity
(𝑃! = 𝑃! (1 + 𝐺𝐴)! )
1 + 𝐼!"!"#$% !
𝐾𝑒 = 1 + $ 𝐾𝑒 − 1 1 + 𝑁𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑅 = 1 + 𝑅𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝑅 1 + 𝐼
event,
usually
a
hostile
takeover,
to
make
target
firm
seem
less
attractive
Historical
premiums
for
other
markets
e.g.
Emerging
markets:
(Debt)
1 + 𝐼!.!.
-‐
Shark
repellents:
Requiring
the
assent
of
stockholders
to
institute
anti-‐ *Match
nominal
CFs
with
nominal
discount
rate!
-‐
Shorter
history
à
Tend
to
have
large
std
errors
Measuring
ROC
of
new
investments
takeover
amendments
-‐
To
determine
default
risk
spread
where
there
is
insufficient
info:
Bottom-‐up
beta
for
financial
institutions:
In
determining
risk
premium
for
FOREIGN
PROJECTS,
consider:
-‐
Overpaying
on
takeovers
à
May
lead
to
decline
in
acquiring
firm’s
stock
p.
From
bond
rate:
E.g.
Brazil
issues
dollar-‐denominated
bonds
at
a
I/R
of
6%
Don’t
have
to
determine
levered/unlevered
beta
as
it
is
difficult
to
1)
Exchange
rate
risk
Stockholder
backlash:
1)
Stockholders
vote
against
managers’
compensation
when
the
US
T-‐bond
rate
was
3.5%
à
Brazil
default
spread
=
2.5%
differentiate
operating
assets
from
financing
assets.
Just
use
average
betas
of
-‐
Adjust
cost
of
capital
for
company’s
investments
in
other
mature
markets
contracts
or
their
BOD
2)
Institutional
investors
become
more
active
in
From
bond
rating:
E.g.
India
has
no
dollar-‐denominated
bonds
but
it
has
a
comparable
banks.
E.g.
For
Deutsche
Bank
–
Split
into
commercial
banking
and
However
if
company
has
projects
in
a
large
number
of
countries,
OR
its
investors
monitoring
companies
and
demanding
changes
3)
Individuals
that
specialize
rating
of
Ba2
from
Moody’s
à
India
default
spread
=
3%
investment
banking,
then
use
the
average
beta
of
comparable
banks
(in
are
globally
diversified,
it
may
be
diversifiable
–
ignore.
in
taking
large
positions
to
drive
change,
like
Carl
Icahn
4)
Having
nominal
-‐
Add
the
default
spreads
to
the
US
risk
premium
to
determine
the
country
risk
relevant
regions)
as
estimate.
2)
Political
risk,
especially
in
emerging
markets
committees
to
select
directors
and
rewarding
them
with
stock
options
premium
Bottom-‐up
beta
for
non-‐traded
assets:
-‐
Calculate
CRP
for
emerging
market
(refer
to
Lecture
3)
2.
Stockholders’
objectives
VS
Bondholders’
objectives
Calculating
equity
spreads
Use
comparable
firms
to
estimate
betas
of
non-‐traded
assets.
-‐
Calculate
cost
of
equity
à
Add
CRP
to
MRP
Bondholders
are
concerned
about
safety
and
ensuring
they
get
paid
their
A)
Obtain
SD
in
country
stock
index
and
country
bond.
B)
Determine
default
1)
Find
out
𝛽!
of
other
firms
in
similar
businesses
from
their
mean/medium
-‐
Calculate
cost
of
capital
claims
(focused
on
minimizing
downside
risk),
while
stockholders
focus
on
spread
based
on
country
bond
rate/rating.
C)
Country
risk
premium/
CRP
levered
betas
and
mean/median
D/E
ratios.
Measuring
ROC
of
existing
investments
upside
potentials
(like
risky
projects).
(equity)
=
Default
spread
×
(SD
in
stock
index/SD
in
country
bond)
D)
Total
2)
Lever
up
the
𝛽! .
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 1 − 𝑇
-‐
Increasing
dividends:
Lenders
to
the
firm
are
hurt
as
the
company
becomes
risk
premium
for
country
=
US
risk
premium
+
CRP
for
country
Adjusting
beta
to
reflect
total
risk
rather
than
market
risk:
𝐴𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 − 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑅𝑂𝐶 =
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑎 𝐵𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 + 𝐵𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 − 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ !"#$%&'( !"#$
riskier
with
less
cash
à
Higher
default
risk
2.
The
implied
premium
approach:
A)
Calculate
CFs
using
average
yield
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑖𝑠𝑘 =
𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 𝑠𝑝𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑑 = 𝐴𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 − 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑅𝑂𝐶 − 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶
-‐
Taking
riskier
projects
than
those
agreed
at
onset
(Higher
i/r,
lower
bond
p)
(average
of
all
dividend
yields
+
Buybacks
yield)
and
est.
growth
rate.
Estimate
𝑅 !
-‐
Borrowing
more
on
the
same
assets/LBO:
Making
more
existing
lenders
Key
to
value
is
earning
excess
returns
–
Economic
Value
Added
(EVA)
LT
g
using
growth
rate
of
S&P500.
B)
Calculate
IRR
which
is
=
expected
return
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝑅! + (𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝛽)(𝑅! )
worse
off
on
stocks.
C)
Implied
equity
risk
premium
=
IRR
–
T-‐bond
rate
𝐸𝑉𝐴 = 𝑅𝑂𝐶 − 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 𝐵𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 + 𝐵𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 − 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ !"#$%&'( !"#$
*Take
average
R2
of
comparable
publicly
traded
firms
Bondholders’
defense:
1)
More
restrictive
covenants
on
investment,
*Negative
rls
between
IRR
and
bond
price. If
depreciation
method
is
straight
line,
can
just
take
the
average
of
initial
How
to
lower
hurdle
rate?
financing
and
dividend
policies
incorporated
into
lending
agreements
and
𝐷 investment
and
the
salvage
value
to
compute
average
book
value.
1)
Go
public
to
reduce
cost
of
conducting
business
(But
dilution
of
bond
issues
2)
New
types
of
bonds
e.g.
puttable
bonds
(protect
from
downside
𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 = 𝑃 =
𝐼𝑛𝑖𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 + 𝐸𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑠𝑎𝑙𝑣𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
𝑟−𝑔 ownership?)
2)
Diversify
into
different
businesses
to
increase
R2.
3)
Reduce
𝐴𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝐵𝑉 =
risks),
ratings
sensitive
bonds,
and
hybrid
bonds
for
bondholders
to
convert
to
Which
one
to
use?
leverage
ratio.
2
equity
if
they
want
to
Discounted
cash
flow
measures
of
return
Use
historical
premium
when:
1)
you
want
a
statistically-‐accurate
figure
taken
Estimating
cost
of
debt:
1)
YTM
on
LT,
straight
bonds
outstanding
in
co.
2)
if
3.
Firms
and
Financial
Markets
*Cash
flows
and
discount
rate
used
should
be
defined
in
same
terms.
over
a
long
period
of
time,
2)
IERP
is
hard
to
calculate
esp.
for
countries
that
firm
is
rated,
use
rating
and
typical
default
spread
(country
+
company).
3)
If
Managers
suppress
and
delay
negative
information,
or
release
intentionally
*Due
to
inflation
rate,
exchange
rate
and
discount
rate
can
change
over
time.
are
not
U.S.
(difficult
to
estimate
LT
g)
firm
is
not
rated,
estimate
synthetic
rating,
or
use
i/r
on
its
LT
bor.
from
bank.
misleading
information
about
their
current
and
future
prospects
to
FMs.
Assuming
purchasing
power
parity:
*Using
the
historical
premium
–
you
believe
the
market
is
inaccurately
priced
Estimating
synthetic
ratings
Investors
are
irrational
and
prices
can
be
volatile
due
to:
$𝑅 $𝑅 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 !
today
and
you
are
NOT
market
neutral.
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑒𝑥𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒! ( ) = 𝐸𝑥𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑡𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑦×( )
-‐
Overreaction
by
investors
to
news
𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 =
𝑑𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑑𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑓
Use
implied
equity
risk
premium
when:
1)
you
are
market
neutral,
focusing
on
𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒
-‐
Manipulation
of
financial
markets
by
insiders
a
single
firm/stock
only,
2)
you
want
a
more
forward-‐looking
figure,
which
1 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛!"#$%&
Comparing
synthetic
and
actual
ratings:
1)
Actual
ratings
consider
more
ratios
$𝑅 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 = 1 + 𝑈𝑆$ 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 − 1
-‐
Short-‐sightedness
of
investors
makes
more
economical
sense.
and
factors,
like
country
risk.
2)
Actual
ratings
allow
for
sector-‐wide
biases
in
1 + 𝐸𝑥𝑝 𝑖𝑛𝑓𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛!"
FM
response:
1)
Payoff
to
uncovering
negative
news
is
large
today
2)
Much
Can
use
risk
premium
of
US
to
estimate
risk
premium
of
ctys
like
Ger
or
Fra,
ratings.
3)
Actual
ratings
reflect
normalized
earnings.
-‐
Currency
(CF
in
dollar,
discount
rate
also
in
dollar)
easier
to
trade
on
bad
news
today
given
option
trading
3)
Greater
access
to
assuming:
1)
The
two
markets
have
the
same
level
of
risk.
2)
Arbitrage
is
possible
*It
is
difficult
to
estimate
synthetic
ratings
for
banks
as
it
is
hard
to
define
-‐
Nominal/real
(CF
are
nominal,
discount
rate
also
real)
information
–
more
difficult
to
control
information
4)
Punishment
for
and
free
capital
flow
is
allowed.
interest
expense
on
debt
for
a
bank.
Net
Present
Value
(NPV):
Sum
of
present
values
of
all
cash
flows
from
the
misleading
information
is
quick
and
savage
Beta:
Weights
for
WACC
calculation
project
(including
initial
investment).
Accept
if
NPV>0.
4.
Firms
and
Society
Regression
equation:
𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠 = 𝑎 + 𝛽 𝑅!
Weights
used
in
WACC
computation
should
be
market
values.
(Since
it
is
more
-‐
Note
that
if
cash
flow
is
to
the
firm,
use
WACC
as
hurdle
rate.
-‐
Social
cost/benefit
cannot
be
fully
traced
back
to
the
firm.
CAPM:
𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠 = 𝑅! 1 − 𝛽 + 𝛽 𝑅!
current.)
-‐
If
cash
flow
is
to
equity
investors,
use
cost
of
equity
as
hurdle
rate.
Societal
response:
1)
Laws
and
regulations
against
flouting
of
societal
norms
𝐽𝑒𝑛𝑠𝑒𝑛′𝑠 𝐴𝑙𝑝ℎ𝑎 = 𝑎 − 𝑅! (1 − 𝛽)
-‐
By
taking
the
project,
the
company
will
increase
in
value
by
(NPV)
and
social
costs
2)
Loss
of
business
and
value
if
fail
to
meet
societal
norms
3)
*Note
that
if
the
regression
was
a
monthly
one,
the
annualized
T-‐bill
rate
must
For
interest-‐bearing
debt:
Internal
Rate
of
Return
(IRR):
The
discount
rate
that
sets
the
Investors
may
choose
not
to
invest
in
socially
irresponsible
firms
be
converted
to
monthly
as
well
(by
dividing
by
12).
Regression
should
be
! NPV=0/Percentage
rate
of
return
based
upon
incremental
time-‐weighted
cash
1 − (!!!)! 𝐵𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡
Modified
Objective
Functions:
done
against
an
index
that
is
based
on
investor’s
portfolio
as
well.
flows.
Accept
if
IRR>hurdle
rate.
𝐸𝑠𝑡. 𝑀𝑉 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 = 𝑃𝑀𝑇 +
Publicly
traded
+
Efficient
mkts
+
Protected
B/H
–
Maximize
share
price
𝑹𝟐
represents
the
proportion
of
the
risk
(variance)
of
a
firm
that
can
be
𝑟 (1 + 𝑟)! Salvage
value:
Expected
proceeds
from
selling
all
the
investment
in
the
Publicly
traded
+
Inefficient
mkts
+
Protected
B/H
–
Maximize
S/H
wealth
attributed
to
market
risk.
1-‐𝑹𝟐
is
the
firm
specific
risk
project
at
the
end
of
project
life.
Usually
=
BV
of
fixed
assets
and
working
*r
=
pre-‐tax
cost
of
debt,
since
CFs
are
pre-‐tax.
Publicly
traded
+
Inefficient
mkts
+
Unprotected
B/H
–
Maximize
firm
value
*Diversified
investors
only
care
about
market
risk
(I.e.
Beta)
when
making
capital
*If
insufficient
info,
assume
BVD
=
MVD.
BUT
CANNOT
DO
SAME
FOR
EQUITY!
Private
–
Maximize
S/H
wealth
if
B/H
are
protected,
maximize
firm
value
if
not
investment
decisions.
Terminal
value:
PV
of
all
cash
flows
that
occur
after
estimation
period
ends
For
operating
leases:
𝐶𝐹!!!
Lecture
2:
Risk
and
Return
Models
+
Hurdle
Rates
Part
I
Lecture
3:
Hurdle
Rates
Part
II
Same,
calculate
PV
of
lease
obligations
and
discount
at
pre-‐tax
cost
of
debt.
𝑇𝑒𝑟𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑡 =
Marginal
investor:
Investor
that
owns
a
lot
of
stock
and
trades
a
lot.
Determinants
of
Beta
𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 − 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑤𝑡ℎ 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒
*Effect
on
income
statement:
Adjusted
EBIT
=
Reported
EBIT
+
Interest
*Largest
investor
may
not
be
the
marginal
investor,
if
he
is
the
founder
or
1.
Product
type
(Cyclical
and
discretionary)
2.
Operating
leverage:
Higher
Possible
reasons
for
different
NPV
and
IRR
results:
Interest
=
Pre-‐tax
cost
of
debt
×
Debt
value
(PV
of
lease
payments)
manager
of
the
firm.
operating
leverage
(proportion
of
fixed
costs
over
total
costs)
à
Greater
-‐
A
project
can
only
have
one
NPV,
but
more
than
one
IRR.
(Principal
payments
are
used
to
offset
depreciation)
CAPM:
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑅 = 𝑅! + 𝛽(𝑅! )
%! !"#$%&' -‐
NPV
(dollar
surplus
value)
is
likely
to
be
larger
for
“large
scale”
projects,
earnings
variability
à
Higher
betas
à
Higher
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 𝑣𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
Convertible
bonds
CAPM
assumes
there
is
no
private
information
or
transactions
cost,
and
that
%! !"#"$%" which
IRR
(percentage)
is
higher
for
“small
scale
projects”.
3.
Financial
leverage:
Higher
interest
payments
(fixed
costs)
à
Greater
Remember
they
have
equity
portion
as
well!
Add
to
shares
value.
the
optimal
diversified
portfolio
includes
every
traded
asset.
Everyone
holds
-‐
NPV
assumes
intermediate
cash
flows
get
reinvested
at
the
“hurdle
rate”
earnings
variability
à
Higher
betas
Equity
value
=
Market
value
–
PV
of
interest
payments
&
BV
of
debt
this
market
portfolio.
There
is
only
one
source
of
risk,
which
is
market
risk.
(based
on
what
you
can
make
on
investments
of
comparable
risk,
while
the
𝐷 Choosing
hurdle
rate
*CAPM
only
applies
for
investors
of
PUBLIC
companies.
𝛽! = 𝛽! [1 + 1 − 𝑇 ]
IRR
assumes
intermediate
cash
flows
get
reinvested
at
the
IRR.
If
returns
are
measured
to
equity
investors,
choose
cost
of
equity.
Expected
R
represents
the
value
that
you
can
expect
to
make
in
the
LR
if
the
𝐸 Uncertainty
in
project
analysis:
*Always
use
MARGINAL
TR,
as
it
is
less
prone
to
changes
than
effective
TR
If
returns
are
measured
to
capital/the
firm,
choose
cost
of
capital.
stock
is
correctly
priced
and
the
CAPM
is
the
right
model
for
risk/the
return
-‐
Payback
period
*Regression
beta
is
a
levered
beta
MM
Theorem
mgrs
need
to
make
in
the
LT
for
investors
to
breakeven
à
HURDLE
RATE!
𝐷 -‐
Sensitivity
analysis
and
what-‐if
questions
Risk
free
rate:
𝑟! = 𝑟! + 1 − 𝑇! (𝑟! − 𝑟! )
-‐
Simulations
–
Incorporate
probabilistic
estimates
𝐸
Equity
analysis
(all
from
perspective
of
equity
investors)
If
S/H
sell
at
price
>
old
current
price,
there
will
be
a
wealth
transfer
from
Which
optimal
debt
ratio
to
use?
!"# !"#$%&
-‐
Accounting
returns:
𝑅𝑂𝐸 = > 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦
remaining
shareholders
to
selling
S/H.
-‐
Depends
on
objective
of
analysis
–
E.g.
if
want
to
issue
lot
of
debt,
choose
the
Framework
for
analyzing
dividend
policy
!" !" !"#$%&
1)
#
of
shares
repurchased
=
Excess
debt
capacity/Repurchase
price
2)
one
that
gives
highest
optimal
ratio.
-‐
If
using
DCF
model:
CFs
=
CFs
after
debt
payments
to
equity
investors,
hurdle
Premium
paid
to
selling
S/H
=
#
of
shares
repurchased ×
(repurchase
price
–
-‐
Standard
cost
of
capital,
enhanced
cost
of
capital
and
APV
are
ABSOLUTE
rate
will
be
cost
of
equity
current
old
price)
3)
Premium
paid
to
remaining
S/H
=
Increase
in
firm
value
–
optimals
–
Solely
determined
by
firm’s
characteristics.
Relative
analysis
is
a
-‐
𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐸 = 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑎𝑓𝑡𝑒𝑟 𝑖𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑒𝑠𝑡 𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑠 + 𝐷𝑒𝑝 − 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑒𝑥 −
Premium
paid
to
selling
S/H
4)
∆Price
=
(Premium
to
remaining
S/H)/#
of
RELATIVE
optimal
–
benchmarked,
which
explains
difference.
∆𝑁𝑜𝑛𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑊𝐶 + 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑢𝑒
remaining
shares
Designing
debt
Comparing
NPVs
with
unequal
lives
Limitations
of
Cost
of
Capital
approach
Maturity
–
Long,
if
long
term
projects,
many
intangible
assets
Use
the
equivalent
annuity
approach.
1)
It
is
static.
EBIT
is
most
critical
in
analysis
–
if
EBIT
changes,
optimal
debt
Currency
–
Mixed
if
currency
of
CFs
are
mixed
(esp
if
sensitive
to
stronger
1.
Calculate
each
project’s
NPV
over
its
lifetime
ratio
changes.
2)
Assumes
EBIT
will
remain
fixed
as
the
debt
ratio
and
rating
dollar)
2.
Compute
each
project’s
Annuity
(N=life,
I/Y=WACC
of
project,
PV=NPV,
changes,
and
does
not
consider
possible
indirect
bankruptcy
costs.
3)
Beta
and
Fixed/floating
–
Floating
if
CFs
move
with
inflation/greater
uncertainty
of
FV=0,
CPT
PMT)
ratings
–
assumes
how
market
risk
and
default
risk
get
borne
as
firm
borrows
future/High
pricing
power
(*Interest
rates
move
with
inflation)
3.
Select
project
with
the
higher
EAA.
more
money
and
the
resulting
costs.
If
borrow
a
lot
à
Low
ratings
à
Junk
Straight/convertible
–
Convertible
if
cash
flows
are
low
now
but
high
expected
Lecture
5:
Capital
Structure
bondholders
≈
shareholders?
(Should
use
Hamada
equation
as
well?)
growth
(Since
convertible
bonds
have
lower
i/r,
thus
lower
financing
cost)
Advantages
of
debt:
1)
Tax
benefit
–
Int.
expenses
are
tax-‐deductible
while
Enhanced
Cost
of
Capital
Approach:
Indirect
costs
of
bankruptcy
are
built
Lecture
6:
Dividend
Policy
FCFE
are
not.
(Better
if
marginal
tax
rate
is
higher)
Can
borrow
more
to
reduce
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑠 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
into
expected
operating
income.
As
rating
declines,
operating
income
is
tax
bill.
2)
Added
discipline
–
Pressure
from
creditors
to
pay.
à
When
𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑝𝑎𝑦𝑜𝑢𝑡 = 𝐷𝑖𝑣𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑑 𝑦𝑖𝑒𝑙𝑑 =
adjusted
to
reflect
this
indirect
cost.
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝐼𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 𝑆𝑡𝑜𝑐𝑘 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒
separation
between
managers
and
stockholders
increases,
benefits
to
using
à
Estimate
drop
in
EBITDA
for
rating
à
Adjust
interest
coverage
ratio
à
debt
goes
up.
Recalculate
cost
of
debt
à
Recalculate
cost
of
capital
(Benefit
of
borrowing
is
The
dividends
don’t
matter
school:
MM
Hypothesis
Disadvantages
of
debt:
1)
Expected
bankruptcy
cost
=
Probability
of
going
reduced)
Dividends
don’t
affect
value.
If
a
firm’s
investment
policies
don’t
change,
the
bankrupt
×
Cost
of
bankruptcy
(Direct
+
Indirect)
à
Firms
with
more
stable
To
analyze
financial
service
firms
value
of
the
firm
cannot
change
as
it
changes
dividends.
If
a
firm
pays
more
in
earnings
and
lower
bankruptcy
cost
should
borrow
more.
2)
Agency
cost
–
Due
to
difficulty
of
estimating
operating
debt
from
financing,
it
is
hard
to
dividends,
it
will
have
to
issue
new
equity
to
fund
the
same
projects
à
Reduce
Actions
that
benefit
equity
investors
may
hurt
lenders,
due
to
higher
i/r
or
estimate
interest
expenses
for
banks.
Thus,
focus
only
on
long-‐term
debt
to
price
appreciation
on
the
stock
but
will
be
offset
by
a
higher
dividend
yield.
covenants.
à
Firms
with
less
intangible
assets
where
lenders
can
control
how
calculate
interest
coverage
ratio,
and
look
at
book
value
of
equity
capital.
Investors
are
indifferent
to
receiving
either
dividends
or
capital
gains,
if
their
money
is
being
used
should
be
able
to
borrow
more.
3)
Loss
of
flexibility
Estimating
debt
capacity
based
on
regulatory
capital:
Find
out
what
is
the
personal
taxes
are
involved.
Lecture
7:
Valuation
–
Using
up
available
debt
capacity
today
means
you
cannot
draw
on
it
in
the
equity
capital
allowed
under
regulatory
requirement,
and
how
much
more
Dividends
are
“bad”
school
Three
approaches
to
valuation:
1)
Intrinsic
valuation
–
Function
of
CFs,
future.
à
Firms
that
can
forecast
future
funding
needs
better
or
with
better
equity
is
needed
from
existing
equity
to
give
desired
equity/capital
ratio.
*Capital
gains
are
preferred
due
to
tax
considerations
à
Capital
gains
–
Can
growth
and
risk
(DCF
model)
2)
Relative
valuation
–
Based
upon
what
access
to
capital
markets
should
be
able
to
borrow
more.
Determinants
of
the
Optimal
Debt
Ratio:
pay
taxes
on
the
gains
in
future
when
you
sell
stock,
which
can
be
timed
to
investors
are
paying
for
similar
assets,
usually
by
comparing
price
multiples
3)
Estimating
duration/currency
breakdown
of
debt
! 1)
Marginal
tax
rate
–
The
higher
the
marginal
TR,
the
greater
the
benefit
to
match
the
fall
in
gains
in
other
investments.
Dividends
–
Have
to
pay
taxes
now
Contingent
claim
valuation
–
Use
of
option
pricing
models
(e.g.
Black-‐Scholes)
borrowing.
2)
Pre-‐tax
CF
return
–
Firms
that
have
more
in
operating
income
upon
receipt
of
dividends.
(PV
OF
MONEY!)
when
CFs
are
contingent
on
an
external
event
(Usually
used
for
financially
𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛: 𝑊! = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑝 𝑜𝑓 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡/𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠; 𝐷𝑢𝑟 = 𝑊! ×𝑡 (𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟)
and
CFs,
relative
to
firm
value,
should
have
higher
optimal
debt
ratios
(due
to
Before/after
ex-‐dividend
day
distressed
co.
since
they
are
similar
to
out-‐of-‐money
options)
!!!
*Duration
of
debt
can
be
split
into
two.
greater
ability
to
take
on
debt)
Assuming
investor
is
indifferent
btw
selling
before
and
after
ex-‐dividend
day:
Intrinsic
valuation
!"#$%&
Currency
breakdown:
Find
out
how
much
of
CFs
are
in
foreign
currency,
then
à
𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑓𝑙𝑜𝑤 𝑝𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑎𝑙 = .
(Note:
Growth
firms
have
𝑷𝒃𝒆𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒆 − 𝑷𝒂𝒇𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝟏 − 𝒕𝒐𝒓𝒅 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆 !!!
!"#$%& !"#$% !" !"#$%&!!"#$ =
𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐹/𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐸 𝑖𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑡
portion
debt
that
is
=
to
foreign
CF
value
out
as
the
foreign
currency
debt.
lower
CFs
in
general
as
%
of
firm
value
which
is
very
large
and
thus
lower
𝑫 𝟏 − 𝒕𝒄𝒈 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚/𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 =
(1 + 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶/𝑘𝑒)!
Finding
the
right
financing
mix
optimal
debt
ratios)
3)
Operating
risk
–
Firms
facing
more
variable
operating
Assumptions:
1.
All
investors
are
paying
same
marginal
TR
on
dividends
(same
!!!
Cost
of
capital
approach:
Optimal
debt
ration
minimizes
the
WACC
of
firm,
tord
income)
2.
No
tax
timing
option
à
tc
might
be
lower
with
better
timing
*Dividend
discount
model
is
a
specialized
case
of
equity
valuation,
where
it
is
income
have
lower
optimal
debt
ratios,
due
to
higher
unlevered
betas
(result
and
maximizes
firm
value
(NPV).
option.
believed
that
S/H
only
get
dividends
for
CFs.
à
Esp.
for
financial
svc
of
greater
earnings
variability)
and
high
cost
of
equity,
AND
lower
bond
𝐹𝐶𝐹(1 − 𝑔) Dividend
arbitrage
companies
(Difficult
to
estimate
FCF,
hard
to
measure
capex
and
WC),
or
high-‐
ratings
and
thus
higher
default
spread
and
higher
cost
of
debt.
4)
(Non-‐firm
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 =
E.g.
if
price
drop
on
ex-‐dividend
day
=
90%
of
dividend
(𝑃!"#$%" − 𝑃!"#$%
=
90%
dividend
co.
May
undervalue
low-‐dividend
paying
co.
𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶 − 𝑔 specific)
Equity
vs
Debt
risk
premiums
–
Issue
debt
when
cost
of
debt
is
low…
𝑭𝒊𝒓𝒎 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆𝒐𝒍𝒅 (𝑾𝑨𝑪𝑪𝒐𝒍𝒅 − 𝑾𝑨𝑪𝑪𝒏𝒆𝒘 ) ×
D),
BUY
before
ex-‐dividend
day
at
Pbefore,
sell
at
Pafter.
Net
profit
=
-‐
Pbefore
+
*If
debt
ratio
not
expected
to
change
over
time,
use
FCFE.
The
APV
Approach
to
Optimal
Capital
Structure:
Value
of
the
firm
=
Sum
of
∆𝑭𝒊𝒓𝒎 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 =
Pafter
+
Dividend
*If
debt
ratio
changes
over
time,
use
FCFF.
(Calculating
FCFE
is
troublesome)
(𝑾𝑨𝑪𝑪𝒏𝒆𝒘 − 𝒈) the
value
of
the
firm
without
debt
and
the
effect
of
debt
on
firm
value
Why
issue
dividends?
1.
Estimating
cash
flows
𝐷 𝐷 𝐷 𝑭𝒊𝒓𝒎 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 = 𝑼𝒏𝒍𝒆𝒗𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒅 𝒇𝒊𝒓𝒎 𝒗𝒂𝒍𝒖𝒆 + 𝑻𝒂𝒙 𝒃𝒆𝒏𝒆𝒇𝒊𝒕𝒔 𝒐𝒇 𝒅𝒆𝒃𝒕 −
=( )/(1 − )
1.
Clientele
effect
–
Investors
in
low
tax
brackets
and
are
older
might
prefer
-‐
CF
to
equity:
Dividends/augmented
dividends
(+Stock
buybacks)/FCFE
𝐸 𝐷+𝐸 𝐷+𝐸 𝑬𝒙𝒑𝒆𝒄𝒕𝒆𝒅 𝒃𝒂𝒏𝒌𝒓𝒖𝒑𝒕𝒄𝒚 𝒄𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒇𝒓𝒐𝒎 𝒅𝒆𝒃𝒕
𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
*Must
be
market
values
of
debt
and
equity.
1.
Estimate
the
unlevered
firm
value
by
estimating
the
unlevered
beta,
the
cost
dividends
à
Lower
tax
on
dividends/stability
AND
higher
beta
stocks
pay
𝐸𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 = 𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐸
Estimating
optimal
WACC
of
equity
and
valuing
the
firm
using
this
cost
of
equity
(which
is
=
cost
of
lower
dividends
2.
Dividends
send
a
signal
–
If
investing
in
new
markets,
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
= 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 × (1 − 𝐸𝑅𝑅)
1.
Estimate
unlevered
beta
for
the
firm.
(Bottom-‐up
or
start
with
levered
beta)
capital
since
firm
is
unlevered)
OR
Unlevered
firm
value
=
Current
MV
of
firm
continue
paying
dividends,
invest
in
new
markets,
issue
new
stock
to
cover
-‐
CF
to
firm
2.
Get
current
financials
(EBIT
adjusted
for
leases,
and
interest
expenses)
–
Tax
benefits
of
Debt
(Current)
+
Expected
Bankruptcy
cost
from
Debt
2.
shortfall
(don’t
cut!)
BUT
for
growth
companies,
it
may
signal
co.
is
running
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
3.
Calculate
cost
of
equity
for
each
D/(D+E),
D/E
ratio
and
levered
beta.
Estimate
tax
benefits
(PV
of
all
future
tax
savings)
at
different
levels
of
debt.
out
of
good
investment
opportunities.
3.
Dividend
increases
may
be
good
for
𝑅𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒(𝑅𝑅) =
à
𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑏𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑓𝑖𝑡𝑠 = 𝐷𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑎𝑟 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 × 𝑡𝑎𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 3.
Estimate
a
probability
of
stocks
but
bad
for
bonds,
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇 1 − 𝑇
4.
Estimate
cost
of
debt
by
estimating
a
synthetic
rating
for
firm
at
each
debt
Assessing
Dividend
Policy:
The
Cash/Trust
Assessment
2.
Discount
rates
level.
à
D/(D+E)
×
Market
value
of
firm
=
Debt
value
à
Interest
expense
=
bankruptcy
at
each
debt
level,
and
multiply
by
cost
of
bankruptcy
(including
Using
FCFE:
Should
be
consistent
with
the
riskiness
and
type
of
CF
being
discounted.
both
direct
and
indirect)
to
estimate
expected
bankruptcy
cost
Pre-‐tax
cost
of
debt
×
Debt
value
à
Interest
coverage
ratio
à
Synthetic
rating
𝑭𝑪𝑭𝑬 = 𝑵𝒆𝒕 𝒊𝒏𝒄𝒐𝒎𝒆 𝒂𝒇𝒕𝒆𝒓 𝒊𝒏𝒕𝒆𝒓𝒆𝒔𝒕 𝒑𝒂𝒚𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 + 𝑫𝒆𝒑 − 𝑪𝒂𝒑𝒆𝒙 − à
Cost
of
equity
for
FCFE/dividends,
and
WACC
for
FCFF
(If
synthetic
rating
is
different
from
previous
year,
use
new
int.
rate
to
Relative
analysis:
Comparing
w
industry
average
with
subjective
adjustmts
∆𝑵𝒐𝒏𝒄𝒂𝒔𝒉 𝑾𝑪 + 𝑵𝒆𝒕 𝒅𝒆𝒃𝒕 𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒖𝒆 ∆𝑫
*Cost
of
equity
and
WACC
can
change
over
time,
due
to
converging
of
bottom-‐
recalculate
interest
expense
and
check
interest
coverage
ratio
for
consistency.)
-‐
Higher
tax
rates
à
Higher
debt
ratios
(Tax
benefits)
*Include
any
acquisition
amounts
as
well.
up
beta
towards
1
(become
an
average
comp
in
industry)
5.
Calculate
after-‐tax
cost
of
debt
(Tax
rate
here
needs
to
be
adjusted
-‐
Lower
insider
ownership
à
Higher
debt
ratios
(Greater
discipline)
Account
for
Dividends
and
Cash
3.
Expected
growth
-‐
More
stable
income
à
Higher
debt
ratios
(Lower
bankruptcy
costs)
accordingly.
If
int.
exp
<
EBIT,
t
=
marginal
TR.
If
int.
exp
>
EBIT,
t
=
!"#"!$%!& !"
!"#$ × !"#$%&"' !" -‐
More
intangible
assets
à
Lower
debt
ratios
(More
agency
problems)
𝑭𝑪𝑭𝑬 − 𝑫𝒊𝒗𝒊𝒅𝒆𝒏𝒅𝒔 = ∆𝑪𝒂𝒔𝒉
DDM:
𝑔 = 𝑅𝑅 × 𝑅𝑂𝐸 = 1 −
.
(check,
esp
if
EBIT
is
given
and
int
exp
can
be
found)
!" !" !" !"#$%&
!"#$%$&# !"#
(Insert
variables)
To
assume
a
stable
debt
ratio
to
fund
reinvestment:
!"
Full
valuation
approach
(Effect
on
firm
value)
FCFE:
𝑔 = 𝐸𝑅𝑅 × 𝑅𝑂𝐸 = 𝐸𝑅𝑅 ×
𝐸𝐵𝐼𝑇𝐷𝐴 𝑭𝑪𝑭𝑬 = 𝑵𝑰 − (𝟏 − 𝛅)[𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐞𝐱 − 𝐃𝐞𝐩 + ∆𝑾𝑪]
!! !" !"#$%&
1.
Estimate
CFs
to
firm.
𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 = 𝑎 + 𝑏 𝑇𝑎𝑥 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 + 𝑐 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑣𝑎𝑟. + 𝑑( )
FCFE
for
financial
institutions
FCFF:
𝑔 = 𝑅𝑒𝑖𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 × 𝑅𝑂𝐶 = 𝑅𝑅 × (
!"#$(!!!)
)
𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒
2.
Back
out
implied
g
in
current
market
value
(equity
value
+
debt
value).
à
Obtain
coefficients
from
industry
firms
𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐸!"#$ = 𝑁𝐼 − ∆ 𝑅𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 𝐵𝑜𝑜𝑘 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑟 𝑙𝑜𝑎𝑛 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒
!" !" !"#$%"&
𝑔 = (𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 × 𝑊𝐴𝐶𝐶!"# − 𝐶𝐹 𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚)/(𝐹𝑖𝑟𝑚 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 + 𝐶𝐹 𝑡𝑜 𝑓𝑖𝑟𝑚)
*g
is
determined
by
1)
what
is
the
reinvestment
2)
how
good
is
the
reinvestmt.
𝑅𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑐𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 = 𝐴𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡 𝑏𝑎𝑠𝑒 × 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜
4.
Terminal
value(
constant
g
formula,
cf
nxt
period)
3.
Revalue
firm
with
new
WACC,
using
firm
value
equation,
to
find
the
increase
Framework
for
analyzing
Capital
Structure
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 = 𝑅𝑂𝐸 × 𝑅𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
in
firm
value.
*Assuming
g
is
constant
(perpetuity)
𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐸 = 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒 − 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑖𝑛 𝑟𝑒𝑔𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑦 𝑖𝑛𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑒
*Stable
constant
g
CANNOT
be
>
growth
rate
of
economy
(e.g.
GDP,
risk
free)
Repurchase
price
Share
repurchases
in
US(other
ways,
k
reduce,
stock
split/div,
distn
in
To
buyback
own
company
shares,
what
is
the
maximum
price
the
mgmt.
*Recalculate
RR
and
EBIT(1-‐T)…
etc
after
change
in
g
to
get
stable
FCFF,
which
specie)
is
=
EBIT(1-‐T)
–
Total
reinvestment.
should
pay?
If
investors
are
rational
and
want
the
same
share
of
firm
value
OMbuyback:
buys
shares
from
OM
at
mkt
price
increase
as
those
who
remain,
Period
of
high
growth:
1)
Stable
growth
–
No
high
g
2)
2-‐stage
growth
–
High
g
!"#$%&'% !" !"#$ !"#$%
Fixed
Tender
price:
fixed
no.
of
shares
at
fixed
price,
if
oversub,
buyback
at
for
a
period,
then
drop
to
stable
g
3)
3-‐stage
growth
–
High
g
for
a
period,
then
Increase
in
value
per
share
=
prorate
!"#$%& !" !!!"#$ !"#$#%&!"#$ decline
gradually
to
stable
g.
New
stock
price
=
Current
price
+
Increase
in
value
DutchAuction:
firm
say
going
to
buyback
how
many
shares,
sh
submit
bid
&
DEPENDS
ON:
1.
Size
of
firm
(Large
firm
in
mature
market,
shorter
high
g
General
Formula:
clear
at
last
tenderd
price.
Targeted
share
repurchase:
buy
from
certain
periods.
Small
firm
in
large
mkt,
longer
high
g
period.)
2.
Current
g
(High
g
in
1)
#
of
shares
repurchased
=
Excess
debt
capacity/Repurchase
price
holders
past,
longer
high
g
period)
3.
Barriers
to
entry
(If
high,
longer
high
g
period)
2)
#
of
remaining
shares
=
Shares
outstanding
-‐
#
shares
repurchased
transferable
put
right:
reverse
rights
issue
At
stable
growth
(when
co
becomes
mature),
beta
will
converge
to
1.
3)
Equity
value
after
buyback
=
New
Firm
Value
–
New
Debt
Value
Offmkt
(sing):
=access,(cap
not
more
than
5%
above
ave
closing
p
for
last
5
à
Adjust
risk,
cost
of
equity
and
cost
of
capital.
4)
Value
per
share
=
Equity
value/#
of
remaining
shares
day)
20%
From
firm
value
to
equity
value
per
share
If
S/H
sell
at
price
=
old
current
price,
there
will
be
a
wealth
transfer
from
Reasons
for
repurchase
!" !"!# !!"#$% !" !"#$%& !"#$!%& !"#$% !" !"#"$%&'
tax:
k
gain,
is
lower
rate
than
div.
Signaling:
undervalued(not
in
sing
as
FCFE:
𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑒𝑞𝑢𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑝𝑒𝑟 𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 =
selling
S/H
to
remaining
S/H.
!"#$%& !" !!!"#$
1)
#
of
shares
repurchased
=
Excess
debt
capacity/Repurchase
price
(Increase
regulator
restrict).
Takeover
defense:
takes
shares
from
holders
wanting
to
FCFF:
𝑃𝑉(𝐹𝐶𝐹𝐸) = 𝑂𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑡𝑠 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 + 𝐶𝑎𝑠ℎ & 𝑛𝑒𝑎𝑟 𝑐𝑎𝑠ℎ 𝑖𝑛𝑣 +
in
debt
to
reduce
equity)
2)
#
of
remaining
shares
=
Shares
outstanding
-‐
#
sell.
Earning
mgmt:
manage
EPS(EY>
ATCOB).
ESO.
Distn
one
time
gain
𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑐𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑜𝑡ℎ𝑒𝑟 𝑐𝑜 − 𝐷𝑒𝑏𝑡 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔
shares
repurchased
3)
∆Price
=
Increase
in
firm
value/#
of
remaining
shares
Is
firm
takeover
target?
See
size,
insider
ownership
and
Jensen’s
Alpha.
à
Can
determine
over
or
undervaluation