This document is being provided for the exclusive use of MIKE MCGLONE at BLOOMBERG/ INTELLIGENCE NEW YORK.

Not for redistribution.

Bitcoin, Gold and Long Bonds May Rule 2H

BI Commodities, Global Dashboard
Mike McGlone
Team: Strategy
BI Commodity Strategist

Bitcoin, Gold & Long Bonds: Three Amigos for 2H Appreciation?

(Bloomberg Intelligence) -- The U.S. Treasury 30-year yield sustaining below 2% has bullish
implications for gold and Bitcoin. Unlike the stock market, the old analog store-of-value and new
digital version share substantial corrections within enduring bull markets, dynamics that we see
tilting the trio toward the top of 2H performers. (08/23/21)

1. `TINA' May Be Shining on Bitcoin and Gold

Gold and Bitcoin have high potential to continue advancing in price, notably if U.S. Treasury yields
resume their enduring downward trajectories, following Japan and most of Europe. We believe the
mantra "There is no alternative" -- or TINA -- that's been keeping the market afloat may be losing
some luster to assets that are more likely to appreciate on the back of entrenched trends amid
rising quantitative easing and debt-to-GDP levels. Our graphic depicts the Bitcoin-Gold-Bond index
outperforming the S&P 500 since the end of 2015, notably from the start of 2020, along with the
rapidly rising level of G4 central-bank balance sheets.

The Bitcoin-Gold-Bonds index includes the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
and iShares 20+ T-Bond ETF (TLT). The index rebalances quarterly to equal weights. (08/23/21)

Bitcoin-Gold-Bonds; Advancing Alternatives?

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

2. This May Be the Only Chart That Matters in 2H

Bitcoin, gold and long bonds are top assets set to outperform in 2H, we believe. The fact that the
metal and Treasury bond prices have been advancing for decades and recently dipped enhances
their relative value, yet gold appears increasingly exposed if not paired with Bitcoin. The crypto
represents rapidly advancing technology pressuring inflation and supporting quantitative easing,
which buoys the stock market. Our graphic depicts Bitcoin potentially reasserting its leadership
status in 2021, with a 2H gain of about 40% to Aug. 20.

Juxtaposed are crude oil down about 14% and rising Treasury bond prices. Copper and crude may
have peaked in 1H, and high correlations indicate greater downside risks if the stock market
falters. (08/23/21)

This report may not be modified or altered in any way. The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service and BLOOMBERG Data are owned and
distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance LP ("BFLP") and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India,
Japan and Korea (the ("BFLP Countries"). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg LP ("BLP"). BLP provides BFLP with all the global
marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP
subsidiary in the BLP Countries. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice, and nothing herein shall constitute an offer
of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates.

Bloomberg® 08/23/2021 06:45:10

 This document is being provided for the exclusive use of MIKE MCGLONE at BLOOMBERG/ INTELLIGENCE NEW YORK. Not for redistribution.

Enduring Bull Markets - Bitcoin, Gold, Bonds

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

3. Bitcoin the Reserve Asset and Dollar Currency

The dollar's more than 300% advance vs. peers since President Richard Nixon ended the gold peg
in 1971 is evidence the greenback is the least-worst currency, but we believe Bitcoin represents
the digital future. The first-born crypto may have solved the age-old problem of a global reserve
asset that's easily transportable and transactionable, has 24/7 price discovery, is relatively scarce
and is nobody's liability or project. Our graphic depicts the upward trajectory of the trade-weighted
broad dollar, which has regained buoyancy with the advent of Bitcoin.

It's not a spurious connection, as evidenced by the about $110 billion market cap of digital-dollar
crypto tokens, noted at Bretton Woods: The Realignment. We foresee a future of Bitcoin, the digital
reserve asset, complementing the dollar reserve currency. (08/16/21)

Free Markets, Digitalization and Bitcoin

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

4. Gold Underpinnings and Declining Bond Yields

The increasing probability that U.S. Treasury bond yields are a stock bear-market away from
following Japan and Europe into negative territory is a primary bullish factor for gold, in our view.
The metal was one of the worst-performing major assets in 1H, but is poised to resume its
enduring bull market in 2H. Underpinnings for gold will gain strength, particularly if bond yields
have peaked. Our graphic depicts the yield on the U.S. Treasury long bond on track to catch up to
the German 30-year. It's a question of what forces -- all have mostly low probabilities -- might
reverse the downward migration.

It was when the long bond breached 2% support in 2020 that solidified the gold breakaway above
$1,400 an ounce. At about 1.9% on July 29, trends appear favorable for the metal. (07/30/21)

This report may not be modified or altered in any way. The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service and BLOOMBERG Data are owned and
distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance LP ("BFLP") and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India,
Japan and Korea (the ("BFLP Countries"). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg LP ("BLP"). BLP provides BFLP with all the global
marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP
subsidiary in the BLP Countries. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice, and nothing herein shall constitute an offer
of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates.

Bloomberg® 08/23/2021 06:45:10

 This document is being provided for the exclusive use of MIKE MCGLONE at BLOOMBERG/ INTELLIGENCE NEW YORK. Not for redistribution.

Minus U.S. Yields May Be Stock Bear-Market Away

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence

To contact the analyst for this research:

Mike McGlone at mmcglone8@bloomberg.net

This report may not be modified or altered in any way. The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service and BLOOMBERG Data are owned and
distributed locally by Bloomberg Finance LP ("BFLP") and its subsidiaries in all jurisdictions other than Argentina, Bermuda, China, India,
Japan and Korea (the ("BFLP Countries"). BFLP is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Bloomberg LP ("BLP"). BLP provides BFLP with all the global
marketing and operational support and service for the Services and distributes the Services either directly or through a non-BFLP
subsidiary in the BLP Countries. BFLP, BLP and their affiliates do not provide investment advice, and nothing herein shall constitute an offer
of financial instruments by BFLP, BLP or their affiliates.

Bloomberg® 08/23/2021 06:45:10