2 Valuasi Dengan Free Cash Flow & EVA-R.5-TPD - Text.marked

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EXECUTIVE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
– Second level
E N
EXECUTIVE DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM
• Third level
– Fourth level
E M
Valuasi dengan
» Fifth level
A J
Free Cash Flow & EVA
AN
M
P M
PPM Manajemen
Fax : (021) 2302051

P
Jl. Menteng Raya 9, Jakarta 10340 Telp. (021) 2300313
1
PPM Manajemen
Jl. Menteng Raya 9, Jakarta 10340 Telp. (021) 2300313 Fax : (021) 2302051
www.ppm-manajemen.ac.id
4/5/2021 www.ppm-manajemen.ac.id
Valuasi
– Second level
E N
M
• Proses
• Thirduntuk
level menentukan nilai (value) sebuah
E
perusahaan
– Fourth level
• Model valuasi:
» Fifth level
• Discounted cash flow:
A J
• Free cash flow
• EVA
AN
M
• Multiple
• Option
P M
P 2
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Valuasi
– Second level
E N
• Third level
– Fourth level
Valuation
E M
» Fifth level
A J
N
Free Cash Intrinsic Cost of
A
Flow (FCF) Value Capital
Financial
M
M
Market External
Market
P
Value Factors
Condition
P 3
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Komponen Valuasi – 1/6
– Second level
E N
• Third level
– Fourth
NWC M
Current Assets  Current Liabilities
level
E
» Fifth level
A J
NOWC  (Cash  Account Receivable  Inventory ) 
N
( Account Payable  Accrual )
A
Invested capital
M
M
IC  NOWC  Fixed Assets  Investment
P
P
IC  Financing Liabilities  Equities
4
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–
N
•
Komponen
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Valuasi 2/6
– Second level
• Third level
M E
– Fourth level
NOPAT  EBIT (1  t )
» Fifth level
J E
N A
NOPAT  EAT  Interest (1  t )
ROIC  M A
NOPAT
P M Invested Capital
P 5
4/5/2021
• Click to editKomponen
Master text styles
– Second level
Valuasi – 3/6
E N
• Third level
EVA –Fourth
E M
level  WACC ) x Invested Capital
( ROIC
» Fifth level
EVA  Spread x Invested A

J
N
Capital
EVA  EAT  (k xA
M Equity)e
P M
EVA  NOPAT  (WACC x Invested Capital )
P 6
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Master text styles
– Second level
Valuasi – 4/6
E N
• Third level
– Fourth level
E M
 D 
» Fifth level
WACC  k d (1  t )   k e 
 D  E   A J
 E 

 D  E  
AN
M
Keterangan:
WACC = weighted average cost of capital
M
D = debt, utang
E = equities, ekuitas, modal sendiri
kd
ke
P P
=
=
cost of debt
cost of equity
7
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Komponen Valuasi – 5/6
– Second level
E N
M
Free cash flow
• Third level
– –Fourth
EBIT (1 t) level
+ Depreciation
» Fifth & amortization (DA)
level
JE
A
- Capital Expenditure
N
- Working capital change
=
A
Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF)
M
Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF)
M
- Interest expense (1 – t)
P
- Principal repayment
+ New debt issues
=
P
Free cash flow to the Equity (FCFE)
8
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N
•
Free cash
flow
– Second level
• Third level
M E
– Fourth
Free cashlevel
Fifth level
flow To»Firm CFO +
JE CFI
A
(FCFF)
AN
Free cash
M
M
flow To Investor Creditor
P
Equity
(FCFE)
P 9
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Valuasi – 6/6
Master text styles
– Second level
E N
M
Free• cash flow
Third level
– Fourth level
FCFF  NOPAT
» Fifth level Net Investment
J E
A
FCFF  ( NOPAT  Depreciation)  Gross Investment  NOWC
N
A
Net Investment  Gross Investment  Depreciation  NOWC
M
P M
P 10
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FCF Valuation
– Second level Revenue
E N
• Third level
– Fourth level
E M
Operating cost Operasi
» Fifth level
FCFF
A J Tax
AN Depreciation
M
Capex Investasi
FCFF
(1+WACC)
M
Δ NOWC
P P (1+WACC)
Cost of debt
Cost of equity
Pendanaan
11
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N
•
Value &
Growth
– Second level
• Third level
ME
– Fourth level
» Fifth level Long-term
JE
A
growth
Intrinsic
ANROIC
M
Value
P M WACC
P 12
4/5/2021
Two
• Click to edit – text
Master
– Second level
Stage
styles Growth Model
E N
• Third level
– Fourth level
E M
» Fifth level
A J
Growth
High Growth
Period
AN
M
Rate
Stable
M
Growth
P
Period
P Time
13
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FCF – Two Stage
– Second level
E N
• Third level
V 
t n
– Fourth level FCFFt

Tn
E M
0 » Fifth level
t 1
t
A J
(1  WACC ) (1  WACC ) n
FCFF A
N
T  M n 1
M
(WACC  g )
n
P
n n
P 14
4/5/2021
Click to edit Master title style Cakrawala
Inputs for Valuation
FCFF – Two
Two Stage Model

Stage – 1/4
– Second level
Base year
Current revenues of the firm
Current Inputs
E N Rp
2012
100.000
M
Operating expenses as a % of revenues 70,0%
• Third level Tax rate on corporate income 30,0%
– Fourth level
E
Current depreciation Rp 6.000
J
Current capital expenditures for the firm Rp 12.000
» Fifth level Change in working capital in last year Rp 1.500
A
Working capital as a % of revenues 15,0%
N
Current invested capital in the firm Rp 150.000
Value of current debt outstanding Rp 45.000
A
Percentage debt in financing investments 30%
Number of shares outstanding 200
M
Cost of equity 12,25%
Cost of debt 8,00%
High Growth Period
M
Growth rate in revenues for the next 5 years 12,0%
Growth rate in capital expenditures & depreciation 12,0%
P
Stable Growth Period
P
Growth rate in revenues 6,0%
Note:
Operating expenses include depreciation: This is equal to (1-Pre-tax Operating Margin)
15
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FCFF – Two Stage – 2/4
– Second level Cakrawala
E N
M
Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
• Third level
– Fourth level Base
» Fifth level 2012
1
2013
2
J
2014
E3
2015
4
2016
5
2017
A
Growth in Revenue - % 12,0% 12,0% 12,0% 12,0% 12,0%
N
Growth in Depreciation - % 12,0% 12,0% 12,0% 12,0% 12,0%
Operating expense - % 70,0% 70,0% 70,0% 70,0% 70,0% 70,0%
A
Tax Rate - % 30,0% 30,0% 30,0% 30,0% 30,0% 30,0%
Revenues 100.000 112.000 125.440 140.493 157.352 176.234
M
Operating Expenses 70.000 78.400 87.808 98.345 110.146 123.364
EBIT 30.000 33.600 37.632 42.148 47.206 52.870
Tax 9.000 10.080 11.290 12.644 14.162 15.861
EBIT (1-t)
+ Depreciation
P M 21.000
6.000
23.520
6.720
26.342
7.526
29.503
8.430
33.044
9.441
37.009
10.574
P
- Capital Expenditures 12.000 13.440 15.053 16.859 18.882 21.148
- Change in WC 1.500 1.800 2.016 2.258 2.529 2.832
= FCFF 13.500 15.000 16.800 18.816 21.074 23.603
Terminal Value 587.990
16
4/5/2021
FCFF – Two Stage – 3/4
– Second level
E N
• Third level
– Fourth level Cakrawala
E M
J
Cost of Capital
» Fifth level
N
1
2013
A 2
2014
3
2015
4
2016
5
2017
A
Cost of Equity 12,25% 12,25% 12,25% 12,25% 12,25%
Proportion of Equity 70,00% 70,00% 70,00% 70,00% 70,00%
M
After-tax Cost of Debt 5,60% 5,60% 5,60% 5,60% 5,60%
Proportion of Debt 30,00% 30,00% 30,00% 30,00% 30,00%
Cost of Capital 10,26% 10,26% 10,26% 10,26% 10,26%
M
Cumulative WACC 110,26% 121,56% 134,03% 147,77% 162,93%
P P
17
4/5/2021
• Click to edit FCFF –styles
Master text
– Second level
Two Stage – 4/4
E N
• Third level
– Fourth level
E M
J
Cakrawala
» Fifth level Firm Valuation - FCFF
N
1
2013
A 2
2014
3
2015
4
2016
5
2017
A
FCFF 15.000 16.800 18.816 21.074 611.592
Discount Factor 0,9070 0,8226 0,7461 0,6767 0,6138
M
Present Value 13.605 13.820 14.039 14.261 375.380
Value of Firm 431.104
M
- Value of Debt 45.000
Value of Equity 386.104
P
Value of Equity per Share 1.931
P 18
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EVA Valuation
– Second level
E N
Revenue
• Third level
– Fourth level
E M
NOPAT
Operating
cost
» Fifth level
A
ROIC
J Tax
EVA
AN Invested
Fixed
asset
M
capital
EVA WACC NOWC
(1+WACC)
P M Cost of
debt
P
(1+WACC)
Cost of
equity
19
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EVA – Two stage
– Second level
E N
• Third level t  n
V0  IC  
– Fourth level EVAt

E M
Tn
J
(1  WACC ) (1  WACC ) n
n» Fifth level t
A
t 1
AN
M
EVAn 1
Tn 
(WACC n  g n )
P M
P 20
4/5/2021
EVA – Two stage – 1/2
– Second level
E N
• Third level
– Fourth level
Cakrawala
E M
J
Calculation of Invested Capital
» Fifth level
A
Base 1 2 3 4 5
N
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
WACC 10,26% 10,26% 10,26% 10,26% 10,26% 10,26%
A
ROIC 15,68% 16,62% 17,56% 18,49% 19,40% 16,56%
Invested Capital 150.000 158.520 168.062 178.750 190.720 236.846
M
Initial 150.000 150.000 158.520 168.062 178.750 190.720
+ Net Cap Ex 6.720 7.526 8.430 9.441 10.574
M
+ Chg in WC 1.800 2.016 2.258 2.529 2.832
Ending 150.000 158.520 168.062 178.750 190.720 204.126
P
Cumulated WACC 110,26% 121,56% 134,03% 147,77% 162,93%
P
Note: Adjustment in 2017 to reflect terminal ROIC.
21
4/5/2021
EVA – Two stage – 2/2
– Second level Cakrawala
E N
M
Firm Valuation - EVA
• Third level
E
Base 1 2 3 4 5
– Fourth level
J
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
» Fifth level
A
EBIT (1-t) 21.000 23.520 26.342 29.503 33.044 37.009 39.230
- WACC 15.383 16.256 17.235 18.331 19.558 24.289
N
EVA 8.138 10.086 12.269 14.713 17.451 14.941
Terminal EVA 351.143
A
Discount Factor 0,9070 0,8226 0,7461 0,6767 0,6138
PV 7.381 8.297 9.154 9.957 226.234
M
PV of EVA 261.022
+ Invested Capital 150.000
+ PV of change in IC in year 5 20.083
M
= Firm Value 431.104
- Value of Debt 45.000
P
Value of Equity 386.104
P
Value of Equity per Share 1.931
Notes:
PV of change in Invested Capital in year 5 to reconciles the assumptions on stable growth, ROIC and Invested
Capital.
22
4/5/2021
Catatan atas Model Valuasi
•– Model
Second valuasi
level
E N
M
dengan EVA maupun
• Third level
E
FCFF secara teoritis akan menghasilkan
– Fourth level
J
value yang sama.
» Fifth level
A
• Pada praktiknya seorang analis akan
N
memilih salah satu metode saja.
• Keunggulan:
M A
• Model EVA unggul pada munculnya
elemen-elemen yang lebih intuitif
P M
(lihat diagram)
• Model FCFF unggul karena lebih
Psederhana dan lebih banyak dipakai
23
4/5/2021
– Second level
E N
• Third level
TERIMA KASIH
– Fourth level
E M
» Fifth level
A J
AN
M
P M
P 24
4/5/2021

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Fax : (021) 2302051

EVA  Spread x Invested A

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Psederhana dan lebih banyak dipakai

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