NIGERIA: COVID SYNOPSIS

In Nigeria, from 3 January 2020 to 6:11pm CEST, 12 August

2021, there have been 179,908 confirmed cases of COVID-19
with 2,195 deaths, reported to WHO.

On July 26, 2021, the amount of positive coronavirus (COVID-19) tests grew by 213 in
Nigeria, reaching 171,324 cases in total. As of the same date, there were about 2.1
thousand casualties and 164.8 thousand recoveries in the country. Nigeria is the
eigth highest ranked African country concerning registered cases. January 23
recorded the highest daily increase in cases in Nigeria since the beginning of the
pandemic.

With rising cases of the Delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Nigeria, there is
heightened concern about how well the country is prepared to deal with them. The
Conversation Africa’s Wale Fatade asked public health expert Doyin Odubanjo
what Nigeria should do.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) disease outbreak was a public health emergency of
international concern which eventually evolved into a pandemic. Nigeria was locked
down in March, 2020 as the country battled to contain the spread of the disease. By
August 2020, phase-by-phase easing of the lockdown was commenced and
university students will soon return for academic activities. This study undertakes
some epidemiological analysis of the Nigerian COVID-19 data to help the
government and university administrators make informed decisions on the safety of
personnel and students.
The COVID-19 data on confirmed cases, deaths, and recovered were obtained from
the website of the Nigerian Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) from April 2, 2020 to
August 24, 2020. The infection rate, prevalence, ratio, cause-specific death rate, and
case recovery rate were used to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of the
pandemic in Nigeria. Exponential smoothing was adopted in modeling the time
series data and forecasting the pandemic in Nigeria up to January 31, 2021.
The results indicated that the pandemic had infection rate of at most 3 infections per
1 million per day from April to August 2020. The death rate was 5 persons per 1
million during the period of study while recovery rate was 747 persons per 1000
infections. Analysis of forecast data showed steady but gradual decrease in the daily
infection rate and death rate and substantial increase in the recovery rate, 975
recoveries per 1000 infections.
In general, the epidemiological attributes of the pandemic from the original data and
the forecast data indicated optimism in the decrease in the rate of infection and
death in the future. Moreover, the infection rate, prevalence and death rate in
January 2021 coincided with the predictions based on the analysis. Therefore, the
Nigerian government is encouraged to allow universities in the country to reopen
while university administrators set up the necessary protocols for strict adherence to
safety measures.

COVID-19 EPIDEMIC OVERVIEW AND VACCINATION PROGRAM

The number of new cases increased again by 27.8% in June dropping to 1,152
cases compared to 1,596 registered in May despite an increase of 7.6% tests from
2.1 million people in May to 2.3 million people tested in June. The country’s
trajectory indicates that Nigeria is yet to experience a third wave of COVID-19.
Following the 4,024,000 doses of Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine received by
government through COVAX facility in March, the statistics indicate that as of 28th
June, 3,441,146 doses have so far been utilized for the 1st and 2nd dose
vaccinations, which is approximately 88% of the total AstraZeneca COVID-19
vaccine stock in the country (NPHCDA). The people that have been vaccinated
with 1st dose are 2,265,805 while those that have received 2nd are 1,175,341,
respectively. The vaccination rollout continues with the Government of Nigeria
expecting to take delivery of another 41 million additional doses of COVID-19
vaccines by the end of September 2021.
The government is focusing largely on creating awareness around second dose
and reopening of first dose administration along with vaccine rationalization in the
states. This is to ensure that those who received their first dose of the vaccine go
out and get their second dose for maximum protection. For the BAY states the
number of new cases in June dropped significantly to 45, down from 121 new
cases in the previous month. Therefore, despite overcrowded camps, poor
hygiene and sanitation and continued population displacements there is no
identified COVID-19 outbreak with the IDP population.

COVID-19 CONTAINMENT MEASURES AND COMMUNICATIONS

Travel bans for specified countries and mandatory quarantine remain in place,
however many of the internal containment measures have been relaxed. Most
entertainment businesses have reopened, adopting increased outdoor seating
where feasible. Cinemas and night clubs have now also reopened – albeit at 50%
capacity and with restricted operations after midnight. In the northeast, a recent
assessment by IOM found that 72% of respondents stated there were no specific
COVID-19 mitigation measures set up in their locality, 90% were living among host
communities while 10% were living in camps or camp-like settings.
The NCDC collaborated with other partners to strengthen data use in response to
COVID-19 by analysing existing data on COVID-19 to understand the social,
economic, and political factors that influence knowledge and perception of COVID-
19 among Nigerians.

SECURITY AND HUMANITARIAN ACCESS

With what appears to be the death of Boko Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau, a
change in strategy by OAGs in the northeast has been reported. With ISWAP and
Boko Haram announcing a peace pact, it appears that more efforts will be made to
persuade the local populations to support the insurgency in contrast to the
indiscriminate use of violence against civilians that has been seen in the past.
However, OAG attacks on population centers continue with 150,000 displaced in
Geidam and Yunusari Local Government Areas (LGAs). In addition, humanitarian
organizations in the northeast have raised concerns about the returns process,
noting that many areas of return remain unsafe—including Damasak and Dikwa
towns, which both experienced major NSAG attacks in April.
The escalating insecurity in the northeast operational context remains a major
challenge, threatening to further shrink the humanitarian space and impede
access to program sites. Illegal Vehicle Checkpoints (IVCPs) across key supply
routes in the northern and southern axes of the Borno State are also hampering
delivery of aid.
Finally flooding brought about by the onset of the rain season is further
constraining both road and air access especially to the more remote garrison
towns.

HUMANITARIAN NEEDS

A newly developed food insecurity monitoring system for inaccessible areas

indicates that communities in 4 LGAs of Borno state (Bama, Gwoza, Kukawa and
Magumeri) are at high risk of experiencing IPC level 5 (famine) food insecurity.
Levels of Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) are also estimated to be at extremely
critical (phase 5) levels in these areas. Illness and a lack of access to health
facilities are also contributing factors to a higher morbidity risk.