COVID-19 Update:

August 31, 2021

Geographic
distribution of
COVID-19 case
rates by local
health area
of residence,
Aug 15-21, 2021

2
Geographic
distribution
of COVID-19
cumulative
case counts
by local health
area of
residence
Jan 2020-July
2021

3
Geographic
distribution
of COVID-19
vaccinations by
local/community
health area
of residence
August 23, 2021

4
Average daily rate of new cases per 100,000 population
by local health area, August 20 to 26, 2021

5
Daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths
Jan 1 to Aug 24, 2021

161,969 total cases

8,500 ever hospitalized

1,802 deaths

154,669 removed
from isolation

6
Daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths by health authority,
Jan 1 to Aug 24, 2021

7
Rate of cases and hospitalizations by vaccination status,
Jul 1 – Aug 26, 2021

8
Epidemic curve, COVID-19 cases in BC by health authority,
February 2020 – August 26, 2021

9
Daily case count by age January 2020 to August 26, 2021

19-39

40-59

0-4
80+

10
 New daily COVID-19 hospitalization counts and rates per 100,000
January 1 2021 to August 23, 2021

Counts

Rates

11
 Percentage distribution of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations,
ICU admissions and deaths by age, Jan 15, 2020 – Aug 14, 2021

12
Vaccination progress in BC over time by age group and dose number
up to August 24, 2021

13
Over the past month (Jul 30 – Aug 26), fully vaccinated individuals
accounted for 15% of cases and 13% of hospitalizations

Deaths continue to occur

primarily among older individuals
(see next slide), >90% of whom
6%
are vaccinated, which explains
the higher relative % of deaths
among the fully vaccinated

67%

Note: relative size of donuts not to scale

14
COVID-19 health outcomes by vaccination status and age, July 30 – August 26, 2021

Note: relative size of donuts not to scale

15
COVID-19 case rate
by vaccination
status and
health authority,
July 1 – Aug 27,
2021

Crude case rate among

the unvaccinated is
~10x higher than
among fully vaccinated

16
COVID-19 case rate
by vaccination
status and age,
July 1 – August 27,
2021

17
COVID-19
hospitalization rate
by vaccination
status and
health authority,
July 1 – Aug 23, 2021

Crude hospitalization
rate among the
unvaccinated is
~17x higher than
among fully vaccinated

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COVID-19
hospitalization
rate by
vaccination
status and age,
July 1 – Aug 23,
2021

19
After adjusting for age differences, unvaccinated individuals are at much
greater risk of infection, hospitalization, or death from COVID-19
than fully vaccinated individuals

20
 Dynamic modeling: Rt is near 1 in most regions of BC
Estimates are shown for last week → this week, with 90% range of possible values given next to most recent estimate.

BC 1.06 → 1.07 [0.9–1.2] Fraser 1.09 → 1.08 [0.9–1.2] Vancouver Coastal

1.11 → 1.11 [0.9–1.2]

Interior Vancouver Island Northern

0.98 → 1.00 [0.7–1.1] 1.16 → 1.15 [0.7 – 1.4] 1.14 → 1.12 [0.7–1.3]

Solid line: median Rt , modeled using all reported cases up to August 26, 2021; Red band: 5%-95% credible interval; Green band: estimate based on partial data. Purple bars: all reported cases.
Due to lag from symptom onset to reporting, most recent case counts and Rt are not shown. Only January 2021 onward shown here. Data source: BCCDC HA linelist.

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 Dynamic modeling: context and limitations
November 2020 Modelling

Single projection with 50% • Models do not predict what will happen,
and 90% uncertainty but project what may happen given certain
Province-wide conditions. Models can highlight what are
restrictions Nov 19
the important drivers of the epidemic.

• We know that if cases increase, local measures

Lower Mainland
restrictions Nov 7 will be implemented, which then impact
Reported cases
transmission and occurrence of severe
disease. We also know that people change
their behaviour in light of case reports and
other factors.
April 2021 Modelling
• Two examples of past modelling projections
are shown here from November 12th 2020 and
April 15th 2021 press briefings. Both illustrate
Circuit breaker
March 30 how changes in actions changed the epidemic
trajectory.

Reported cases

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 Dynamic modeling: context and limitations
June 2021 Modelling • It is useful to compare a variety of models
and scenarios, as this helps to clarify what
parameters – and how – might be influencing
Reported cases transmission. Example from June modelling
indicates how changes in contact behaviour
and further vaccination could impact cases.

• Models help to reveal the uncertainty inherent

in projecting future cases. Small changes in
parameters can lead to large changes in
outcomes, such as higher than expected
infectious contact rate in Interior Health in July
and August in the context of lower vaccination
coverage.

• Extrapolating too far into the future leads to

highly uncertain or erroneous conclusions.
This is why going forward, projections will
80% infectious
be limited to a one month time horizon.
contact

70% infectious
contact

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 Potential trends: lower transmission scenario

The above plot summarizes the lower transmission scenario where levels of transmission are equivalent to an initial 𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = 1.1 in the projected
vaccination scenario and 𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = 0.94 in the potential vaccination scenario. Shading indicates uncertainty due to effectiveness of vaccination with
90% confidence interval and 50% confidence interval shown.

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 Potential trends: moderate transmission scenario

The following plot summarizes the moderate transmission scenario where levels of contact that result in transmission are equivalent to an initial
𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = 1.25 in the projected vaccination scenario and 𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = 1.07 in the potential vaccination scenario. Shading indicates uncertainty due to effectiveness
of vaccination with 90% confidence interval and 50% confidence interval shown.

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Vaccines prevent thousands of cases and hospitalizations from occurring

The above plot compares three vaccination scenarios under moderate transmission where levels of contact that result in transmission are equivalent to an initial 𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = 1.25
in the projected vaccination scenario, 𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = 1.07 in the potential vaccination scenario, and 𝑅𝑅𝑡𝑡 = 3.54 in the scenario with no vaccination. Shading indicates uncertainty due
to effectiveness of vaccination with 90% confidence interval and 50% confidence interval shown. These scenarios do not include further public health measures that may
be implemented.

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 Summary

• Vaccines are making a difference in our province

• The most important actions we can take to stop transmission are
to decrease infectious contacts, while increasing our vaccination rate
• Public health will continue to closely monitor the data and apply
regional measures where needed

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 COVID-19:
Prepared for BC Ministry of Health
August 2021