Concept of Probability

Unit III
of
Statistical and Quantitative Methods
DSC 7701
2020-22 (Sem. - I)
by Abhikarsha S. Ray:
abhikarshasinha.ray@gdgoenka.ac.in
 In Unit 2, you have learnt how to measure “Data”!

YOU WILL ALSO LEARN THE MEASUREMENT OF DATA IN

SPREADSHEET.

Next, you need to know how to measure the sampled

data distribution under probabilistic conditions.

Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray

3.1 Randomness and Probability P1

Concept of “Randomness” :

The concept of randomness and coincidence will be obsolete when people

can finally define a formulation of patterned interaction between all things
within the universe. —Toba Beta
Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray
3.1 Randomness and Probability P2

A Covid19 World:

Part of the Here is

Population who where you
came in contact quarantine,
with an infected once you
person. So, we draw ‘+’
can say it as samples
SAMPLE FRAME from the
through contact Sampling
tracing Frame

Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray

3.1 Randomness and Probability P3

What is “Random Variable” :

Toss No. of
Heads
1st 0 or 1
2nd 0 or 1
3rd 0 or 1

X (No. of “Heads”: { 0 ; 1 ; 2; 3 }

• Example: One Covid+ Patient comes in contact with two Contact No. of re-
healthy persons. Let Y be the number of persons re-infected infected
out of the first Covid+ patient. persons
1st “- “ or “+”
2nd “-” or “+”

Y (No. of “Infected Persons”: { 0 ; 1 ; 2}

Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray
3.1 Randomness and Probability P4

Concept of “Random Event” :

o A Random Event is an event that either happens or fails to happen as a result of an experiment.

o When undergone Covid19 Testing, a randomly selected person can

be tested:

{ either POSITIVE or NEGATIVE }

o In other words, the EVENT “POSITIVE” may happen or may fail

to happen.

o If in case, the EVENT “POSITIVE” happens to be “true”, the

EVENT “NEGATIVE” is “false”.

o So, we get a set of two possible events : { POSITIVE ; NEGATIVE }

Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray
3.1 Randomness and Probability P5

Types of Events:
o Cetain Event: an event that happens with certitude at 1. Test on the persons in this white
zone is an impossible event (denoted
each repetition of a random experiment. by: Φ) as far as the event POSITIVE is
e.g. if you test a Covid+ patient repeatedly without giving concerned.

medication, every time results will come positive.

3. Tests on the
o Impossible Event: an event that NEVER happens in a persons in this blue
zone have a
random experiment. chance or
2. Test on the
persons in this red
probability to give
e.g. if you randomly test a person who never came in POSITIVE results.
zone is a certain
event (denoted
This does not
contact with a Covid+ carrier, it is IMPOSSIBLE for a person necessarily mean
by: S) as repetitive
tests will always
that tests will
to be tested positive . always be positive.
give POSITIVE
results (without
medications).
o Contrary Event : if an event (test +) occurs in a random
experiment, the other event (test -) can never occur. Two Note: 1. BLUE and WHITE zones are mutually exclusive (contrary).
possible events : POSITIVE (+) & NEGATIVE (-) are contrary 2. RED zone (I) is a sub-set of BLUE zone, which, in turn, is a sub-
set of WHITE zone.
to each other. They are also called: 3. By Transitivity, RED zone is a sub-set of white zone.

“mutually exclusive events” !

Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray
3.1 Randomness and Probability P6

Concept of “Sample Space” : Person 1

o Sample Space: a set of all possible outcomes + -

of a random experiment. + (+ , +) (+ , -)

Person 2
e.g. if you randomly pick and test TWO persons
from the BLUE set (C) in the previous slide, we
get a sample space of FOUR elements: - (- , +) (- , -)

Ω = { (+ , +) ; (+ , -) ; (- , +) ; (- , -) } Another Example:

o The ELEMENTS of a Sample Space are called

SAMPLE POINTS.
e.g. in the above example of sample space,
there are FOUR Sample Points:
(+ ,+) ;
(+ , -) ;
(- , +) ; &
(- , -) .
Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray Note: Sample space comprises fully exhaustive set of all possible outcomes !
3.1 Randomness and Probability P7

Exercise # 3.1: If all patterns in this world could have been

matched, would that be:

o an impossible event;
o a certain event; or
o a contrary event.

Exercise # 3.2: Conceptually differentiate between “Sampling

Frame” and “Sample Space” .

Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray

3.1 Randomness and Probability P8

What is Probability ? Probability in our continued example:

“+” with
Impossibility

“+” with some “+” with

Chance Certainty
In Classical Probability:

1. P (Φ) = 0 (probability of getting a “+” is impossible) ;

2. P (Ω ) = 1 (probability of getting a “+” is certain); and
3. 0 < P ( Blue Space ) < 1.
Probability is lying between 0 and 1 , both 0 and 1 inclusive !

Φ Ω

say, when you toss an unbiased coin, “Heads” or “Tails” are equally likely !
Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray
3.1 Randomness and Probability P9

Classical Probability Definition: Probability in our continued example:

In our example:
Probability of “+” Event = (22 / 100) = 0.22 ≡ 22 %

In rolling-a-die example:
Probability of “any side” of the die = (1/ 6) = 0.17 ≡ 17 %

Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray

3.1 Randomness and Probability P 10

Axioms of probability:
Here, A and B are disjoint or independent !

2. P (A U B ) = P(A) + P(B)

Here, A is a sub-set of B !
Here, A and B are NOT disjoint and dependent !

3. P (A U B ) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A∩B) 4. If A ⊆ B, P (A) ≤ P (B)

A∩B
Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray
3.1 Randomness and Probability P 11

Independent Dark-blue dots (> 60 years) = 9 people

Red dots ( > 25 years & < 60 years) = 6 people
Event: Random Sky-blue dots ( < 25 years) = 3people
Sampling With Total = 18 people
Replacement: Under Independent Event:
microscopic
If you pick one person randomly from this set:
view
a) Probability of picking > 60 years = 9/18 = 0.50
b) Probability of picking 25- 60 years = 6/18 = 0.33
c) Probability of picking < 25 years = 3/18 = 0.17
So, With Replacement:
General view Probability of picking > 60 years OR 25-60 years OR <
Replace back
Randomly pick
to quarantine 25 years = 0.50 X 0.33 X 0.17 = 0.028 = 2.8%
Number of people and administer What you are doing here ?
after
who got infected and drug 1. Each time you randomly select a person and after
administering
hence quarantined. drugs administering drugs, you are replacing him/her
back to the box. Again, if you draw randomly,
probabilities will remain the same.
Independent event: The occurrence of one event 2. Each draw is INDEPENDENT of other draws.
does not affect the probability of the second event. 3. What if, you send the person to a recovery room
after administering drugs (i.e. do not replace back
Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray
to the box, which is the Quarantine Centre) ?????
3.1 Randomness and Probability P 12

Dependent Event: Dark-blue dots (> 60 years) = 9 people

Random Sampling Red dots ( > 25 years & < 60 years) = 6 people
Sky-blue dots ( < 25 years) = 3 people
Without Total = 18 people
Replacement:
Under Dependent Event:
microscopic
view If you pick one person randomly from this set:
a) Probability of picking > 60 years = 9/18 = 0.50
… now send him/her to a recovery room after drug;
b) Probability of picking 25-60 years = 6/17 = 0.35
General view … now send him/her to a recovery room after drug;
Randomly pick and Administer drug
c) Probability of picking < 25 years = 3/16 = 0.19
… now send him/her to a recovery room after drug.
Send to a Recovery Room after
Number of people administer drug So, Without Replacement:
who got infected and
hence quarantined. Recovery Probability of picking > 60 years OR 25-60 years OR <
Room
25 years = 0.50 X 0.35 X 0.19 = 0.033 = 3.3 %
Dependent event: The occurrence of one event does Notice that probability of picking-up without
depend on the probability of the preceding event(s). replacement either of the three categories is slightly
higher than the probability with replacement !!!!
Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray
3.1 Randomness and Probability P 13

Exercise # 3.3: Is Covid19 Infection Spread itself:

o an independent event (if yes or no, why ?); or

o a dependent event (if yes or no, why ?).

Exercise # 3.4: In the example of the finding probabilities of picking

up a Covid19 infected person of different age groups without
replacement, carry on the exercise step-by-step till such time when
only ONE person is left in the Sample Frame !!! What is your
conclusion ?
Prepared and compiled by Mr. Abhikarsha S. Ray