Overview

Urbanization and globalization

• P/D/U/E in the news
• Urbanization processes (R/U)
• Settlement systems (single country, multi-city)
• Globalization (multi-country, multi-city)
Stuart H. Sweeney
Department of Geography
University of California, Santa Barbara

Winter 2004

P/D/U/E interactions Urbanization processes

• Trends
Population Development
-processes (B,D,M) -processes
-patterns -patterns
• Types of cities

• Two sector model (rural-urban)

Urbanization Environment
-processes -processes-L,H,A,B
-patterns -patterns
• Balanced urbanization / complex problems

Urbanization processes: Trends Urbanization processes: Trends

• urbanization – long run settlement history

- hunter-gatherer agricultural revolution
- villages
- ‘urban’ is feature of the settlement system but
is not the dominant form

• modern urbanization – 1800 to present

- acceleration in urban / rural balance
 Population History of Selected Capitals of Preindustrial Epoch
Urbanization processes: Trends Location Period Population Comment
Rome A.D. 100 650,000 World's largest city
600-800 50,000 Barbarian invasions
900 40,000
1000 35,000
1377 17,000 Pope returned from exile
1400 33,000
1500 35,000
1600 109,000

Alexandria 730 216,000 Sixth largest in world

860 100,000 After several sieges
1365 plundered by Cypriotes
1400 40,000
1634 "Heaps of ruins"

Mexico City 1500 80,000 Spanish conquest begins

1524 30,000 After destruction by Spaniards
1600 75,000 Rebuilt

Baghdad 765 480,000 Caliphate established in A.D. 750

932 1,100,000 World's largest city
Declining power of Caliphate

1000 125,000 Tenth largest in world

1258 Sacked by Mongols
1400 90,000 Tamerlane attacks; city sacked in 1401
1638 30,000

Urbanization processes: Types of cities Urbanization processes: Two-sector model (R U)

• Is there a pattern for urbanization trajectories?
• Why do cities exist?
• Is that pattern related to context of urbanization?
- Trading cities
- Yes, logistic growth curve
- Market cities
- Yes, development context and historical period. (U.S. 1/4 to 1/25)
- Industrial cities
- Rapid urbanization can be problematic
- Other pure functions (government, religion, outpost)

Urbanization processes: Two-sector model (R U) Urbanization processes: Two-sector model (R U)

Push factors: (Why leave the rural sector?) Pull factors: (What is the utility of urban areas?)

1. High birth rates & surplus labor 1. Agglomeration

- internal versus external scale economies
- safety net, land tenure laws, famines
2. City as engine of growth (base multiplier concept)
2. Labor saving technologies
- employment is self-reinforcing (positive feedback)
3. Consumer tastes (parity ratio for agricultural sector)
3. Decision context of potential rural to urban migrant
4. Economic viability of “small” farms - choice under uncertainty
- low prices, price fluctuations, government intervention, mechanization and
- expected probability of employment in rural versus urban
credit crunch.
- expected wage rate in rural versus urban
- vagaries of youth and perceived immortality
Urbanization processes: Two-sector model (R U) Urbanization processes: Two-sector model (R U)
Economic context: urbanization & sectoral composition

1. Primary sector: agriculture, mining, lumber, livestock

2. Secondary sector: manufacturing
3. Tertiary sector: services
4. Quaternary sector: research & administration

Urbanization processes: Balanced urbanization / complexity Settlement Systems: Patterns

• What types of problems are related to urbanization?
• Problems with rapid growth (in-migration)
- Ghettos / shanty towns
- urban services and infrastructure
- perception and migration decisions

• Problems of advanced urban areas

- urban core (CBD)
- out-migration
- decreasing returns to scale
- crime, congestion, pollution

Settlement Systems: Patterns Settlement Systems: Patterns

Settlement Systems: Patterns Settlement Systems: Patterns

Settlement Systems: Patterns Settlement Systems: Patterns

Settlement Systems: Rank size rule Settlement Systems: Rank size rule

• Settlement ‘chains’ = rank size distribution 25,000,000

Hypothetical Rank-size Distribution

Hypothetical perfect rank size dist.

• Rank size rule 20,000,000
Population

15,000,000

a. P(rank) = P(1)/rank, let rank=r 10,000,000

b. P(r) = a r-b 5,000,000

0
c. ln(P(r)) = ln(a) – b ln(r) 0 200 400 600
Rank 800 1000 1200

• Examples 100,000,000
Hypothetical Rank-size Distribution
25,000,000
Hypothetical Rank-size Distribution

10,000,000
y = 2E+07x-1
• Implication: binary and primate distributions 1,000,000
20,000,000
R2 = 1
100,000
Population
Population

15,000,000
10,000
10,000,000
1,000
100
5,000,000
10
1 0
1 10 100 1000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Rank Rank
Settlement Systems: Rank size rule Settlement Systems: Rank size rule
Rank-size Distribution of 1990 MAs Oregon: Rank-size Distribution of 1990 Places

20000000 500000
18000000 450000
16000000 Empirical distribution for U.S. metro areas 400000 Empirical distribution for Oregon places
14000000 350000

Population
Population

12000000 300000
10000000 250000
8000000 200000
6000000 150000
4000000 100000
2000000 50000
0 0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Rank Rank

Rank-size Distribution of 1990 MAs Rank-size Distribution of 1990 MAs Oregon: Rank-size Distribution of 1990 Places Oregon: Rank-size Distribution of 1990 Places

100000000 60000000 1000000 3000000

y = 5E+07x-1.0967
10000000 50000000 R2 = 0.9795 100000 2500000
1000000
40000000 10000 2000000 y = 3E+06x-1.5545
Population

Population
Population
100000
Population

R 2 = 0.805
10000 30000000 1000 1500000

1000 20000000 1000000

100
100
10000000 10 500000
10
1 0 1 0
1 10 100 1000 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1 10 100 1000 0 50 100 150
Rank 200 250 300
Rank Rank Rank

Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory
• Centrality • Excess Profits Spatial Competition
• Threshold: minimum market size needed to earn profit

Threshold

Range

• Range: max. dist. consumer is willing to travel to purchase product.

Delivered Price

Demand

Demand

• Central place hierarchy, ordering, nesting

Distance Price Distance

Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory
• Excess Profits Spatial Competition • Excess Profits Spatial Competition

Threshold Threshold

Range Range

• Central place hierarchy, ordering, nesting • Central place hierarchy, ordering, nesting
Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory
• Excess Profits Spatial Competition • Excess Profits Spatial Competition

Threshold Threshold

Range Range

• Central place hierarchy, ordering, nesting • Central place hierarchy, ordering, nesting

Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory

• Assumptions:
1. Uniform spatial distribution of population/income
2. Isotropic transport surface
3. Consumers patronize nearest store
4. No excess profits (range=threshold)

Given 1-4, spatial equilibrium yields hexagonal trade areas

Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory

y Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory
y
Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory Settlement Systems: Central Place Theory

• Central Place Theory (cont.)

– Relax Assumptions:
> Population/income variation
> Transport surface
> Consumer behavior
> Profits