Sustainability and Urban Public Transportation1

Kumares C. Sinha, F.ASCE2

Abstract: An analysis of data of the past few decades from cities around the world indicates that history is repeating itself. Although
there are significant differences in socioeconomic and technological characteristics among these cities, a remarkable similarity exists in
trends in urban transportation. The current growth in the use of automobiles in many cities of developing countries follows similar trends
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

experienced in the United States and other developed countries several decades earlier. Even though there is much awareness and
knowledge about sustainability, private vehicle ownership, and use continue to grow at an increasing pace with rising personal incomes
and desires to experience faster and more reliable transportation technology. Urban density, expressed in number of people and/or jobs per
unit of land, is the key indicator of the level of automobile ownership and use, and of associated parameters of sustainability. As personal
incomes rise, choice of residential and job location increases, causing a decrease in urban density and affecting the relative use of private
transportation and public transit. There are policy options related to land use, pricing, and technological factors that can have far reaching
influence on the long-term sustainability of urban-transportation systems around the world. The basic implication of the analysis is that
urban-transportation sustainability can be greatly enhanced if there are profound changes in urban structures and activities that can slow
or reverse the growth in the use of private automobiles and can make transit and other modes attractive and viable.
DOI: 10.1061/共ASCE兲0733-947X共2003兲129:4共331兲
CE Database subject headings: Urban transportation; Public transportation; Automobiles; Population growth; Infrastructure.

Introduction ment of the twentieth century after electrification, and interstate

In the past 150 years, transportation infrastructure and services,
vehicles, and design technologies have experienced a vast change
in response to the increasing and complex demands of society, as
well as in response to the advent of other technologies. Surface
urban passenger transportation has gone through several mile-
stones, from horse-drawn street railways, steam, and cable pow-
ered lines to electric streetcars, underground heavy rail line, and
urban bus transit. The introduction of new public transportation
technologies was primarily motivated by the desire of the user to
find faster and more reliable forms of transportation than those
that were available at the time, and this motivation eventually
resulted in the predominance of the automobile. While this pro-
gression provided an unprecedented level of mobility and per-
sonal freedom, it paid little attention to social and environmental
sustainability along the way. It was not only the technology used,
but also socioeconomic factors, urban growth policies, and chang-
ing consumer attitudes that made the private automobile the most
desirable mode of urban transportation.
The importance of the automobile was recently underscored
by the U.S. National Academy of Engineering 共NAE兲 when it
ranked the automobile as the second greatest engineering achieve-
1
This paper is derived from the Twelfth Francis C. Turner Lecture
presented at the Second International Conference on Urban Public
Transportation Systems, April 16, 2002, Alexandria, Va.
2
Edgar B. and Hedwig M. Olson Distinguished Professor of Civil
Engineering, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN 47907. E-mail:
ksinha@purdue.edu
Note. Discussion open until December 1, 2003. Separate discussions
must be submitted for individual papers. To extend the closing date by
one month, a written request must be filed with the ASCE Managing
Editor. The manuscript for this paper was submitted for review and pos-
sible publication on April 9, 2003; approved on April 9, 2003. This paper
is part of the Journal of Transportation Engineering, Vol. 129, No. 4,
July 1, 2003. ©ASCE, ISSN 0733-947X/2003/4-331–341/$18.00.
highways were listed as the eleventh. Rankings were based on the
impact of these engineering achievements on the quality of life
共NAE 2000兲.
Indeed automobiles, along with interstate highways, have had
a profound impact on our lives, particularly in metropolitan areas.
Automobile-oriented transportation systems have dramatically
changed the scale and nature of our communities and have domi-
nated many aspects of daily living. While automobiles and all-
weather roads brought unprecedented freedom in our lifestyle,
they also brought about serious adverse consequences, particu-
larly in terms of safety and the environment. In fact, trends
around the world indicate that urban areas are becoming increas-
ingly automobile-dependent with a precipitous decline in public
transit use. The deleterious effect of rapid motorization and atten-
dant urbanization raises serious concern about the sustainability
of our transportation systems, particularly in the developing
world. Due to the inadequacy of road infrastructures, cities such
as Sao Paulo and Seoul are much more congested at lower rates
of automobile ownership than cities in highly industrialized coun-
tries. At the same time, poorly maintained vehicles, in combina-
tion with slow-moving traffic, are making some cities highly pol-
luted, such as Bangkok, Thailand; Mexico City; and Teheran,
Iran. Expanding urban boundaries are also making work trips,
particularly for some of the poor, excessively long and expensive
共World Bank 1996兲.
This presentation discusses the role of public transportation in
achieving urban sustainability, and a review is made of worldwide
motorization and urbanization trends. These discussions are sup-
ported by a database of major cities around the world for the
period 1960–1990, which was also used for developing indicators
of urban-transport sustainability and for statistical analyses. The
paper concludes with suggested approaches, policies, and mea-
sures that can make public transportation relevant in the attain-
ment of sustainability.

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003 / 331

J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.

 Table 1. Selected Travel Characteristics for the Dataset of 46 Cites in 1990 and Corresponding Percentage Growth Relative to 1960
Persons/hectare Cars/1,000 people Car-km of travel/capital/year Transit boardings/capita/year
City 1990 Change 共%兲 1990 Change 共%兲 1990 Chang 共%兲 1990 Change 共%兲
Adelaide, Australia 12 ⫺30 537 135 6,690 154 76 ⫺47
Amsterdam, The Netherlands 49 ⫺50 319 393 3,977 475 325 75
Bangkok, Thailand 149 ⫺11 199 472 2,664 NA 423 NA
Boston 12 ⫺34 521 91 10,280 150 114 9
Brisbane, Australia 10 ⫺53 463 141 6,467 148 69 ⫺70
Brussels, Belgium 75 ⫺25 428 172 4,864 171 260 ⫺22
Calgary, Canada 21 ⫺23 620 95 7,913 178 94 0
Canberrra, Australia 10 0 457 89 6,744 NA 89 23
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Chicago 17 ⫺31 547 78 9,525 133 96 ⫺34

Copenhagen, Denmark 29 ⫺29 283 220 4,558 261 164 ⫺15
Denver 13 ⫺31 753 57 10,011 70 30 ⫺30
Detroit 13 ⫺32 693 90 11,239 NA 24 ⫺50
Edmonton, Canada 30 NA 527 96 7,062 NA 109 10
Frankfurt, Germany 47 ⫺47 478 258 5,893 195 217 NA
Hamburg, Germany 40 ⫺42 410 329 5,061 224 228 ⫺32
Hong Kong 301 NA 43 276 493 NA 570 84
Houston 10 ⫺7 608 57 13,016 91 26 ⫺8
Jakarta, Indonesia 171 NA 75 NA 1,112 NA 238 NA
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 59 NA 170 270 4,032 NA 227 NA
London 42 ⫺35 348 122 3,892 190 325 ⫺25
Los Angeles 24 7 544 18 11,587 57 55 48
Manila, Philippines 198 NA 66 NA 732 NA 481 NA
Melbourne, Australia 15 ⫺27 518 131 6,436 117 101 ⫺55
Montreal 34 ⫺41 420 118 4,746 NA 222 NA
Munich, Germany 54 ⫺5 468 258 4,202 177 404 NA
New York 19 ⫺15 484 79 8,317 105 155 ⫺23
Ottawa 31 NA 510 82 5,883 68 135 17
Paris 46 ⫺33 360 136 3,459 175 295 0
Perth, Australia 11 ⫺32 523 119 7,203 119 54 ⫺60
Phoenix 11 22 644 75 11,608 61 15 6
Portland, Ore. 12 ⫺11 764 57 10,114 141 46 21
Sacramento, Calif. 13 ⫺2 563 36 13,178 NA 15 ⫺19
San Diego 13 12 559 45 13,026 NA 29 ⫺6
San Francisco 16 ⫺3 604 48 11,933 111 112 9
Seoul 245 NA 66 NA 1,483 NA 460 NA
Singapore 87 ⫺17 102 164 1,864 338 457 NA
Stockholm, Sweden 53 ⫺19 409 186 4,638 157 348 149
Surabaya, Indonesia 177 NA 40 NA 1,064 NA 174 NA
Sydney 17 ⫺21 449 109 5,886 92 160 ⫺37
Tokyo 71 ⫺17 225 1,315 2,103 267 461 3
Toronto 42 13 606 103 5,019 NA 350 127
Vancouver, Canada 21 ⫺16 565 98 8,361 NA 117 ⫺15
Vienna, Austria 68 ⫺25 363 288 3,964 NA 422 36
Washington, D.C. 14 ⫺33 620 114 11,182 NA 106 7
Winnipeg, Canada 21 ⫺32 412 51 6,871 67 98 ⫺34
Zurich, Switzerland 47 ⫺22 444 253 5,197 NA 515 46

Sustainability more recently Meadows et al. 共1974兲, worried about population

According to the definition adopted by the U.N. World Commis-
sion on Environment and Development 共UNWCED 1987兲, ‘‘a
sustainable condition for this planet is one in which there is sta-
bility for both social and physical systems, achieved through
meeting the need of the present without compromising the ability
of future generations to meet their own needs.’’
Throughout history, serious concerns about sustainability have
been raised from time to time. About 200 years ago, Malthus, and
growth and the ability to accommodate the rising tide of people in
terms of food and other needs. While some of the dire predictions
of these early concerns have not materialized, the issue of long-
term habitability of the Earth remains to be serious in terms of
environmental, as well as social and economic consequences.
Transportation plays an important role in sustainable develop-
ment. While some earlier transportation developments also caused
land use changes and negative environmental effects, recent trans-
portation systems have more pervasive and long-term adverse

332 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003

J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.

Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Fig. 1. Trends in world population and motorization growth
consequences. For example, interconnected waterway systems af-
fected fish populations, and the westward expansion of railroads
in the United States nearly caused the extinction of the American
bison in the nineteenth century. However, the negative impact of
the motor-vehicle-oriented transportation system on land, water,
and air resources in recent years has been massive and unprec-
edented.
The notion of sustainability covers a wide range of issues. The
World Bank 共1996兲 identified the following main dimensions of
sustainable transportation: economic and financial 共cost-
effectiveness of the system兲, environmental 共pollution, land use,
energy consumption, and wildlife兲, and social 共safe and adequate
service to all segments of society兲. There are several other defi-
nitions of sustainable transportation 共Richardson 2000兲 as well.
Essentially, the sustainability of an urban transportation system
can be judged by how well it contributes to the quality of life in
the community, whether its use of physical and natural resources
ensures the ability of future generations in meeting their transpor-
tation and livability needs, how externalities are accounted for,
and how well current and future demands of diverse segments of
society are satisfied.
Changing Urban Pattern
Urban pattern is changing in cities around the world. This change
has been profound in cities of the United States and provides
important lessons. Up until World War II, cities in the United
States grew around an urban core, often in successive layers of
high-density concentric rings. However, this pattern of urban
growth changed dramatically in the 1950s. With all-weather roads
and housing programs encouraging single-family dwelling units,
this traditional growth pattern gave away to a ‘‘leapfrogging’’
phenomenon in most American urban areas, creating urban
sprawls represented by uncoordinated ribbon developments along
major highway corridors reaching deep into rural agricultural
areas. This automobile-oriented metropolitan expansion provided
an attractive way of life for millions of people who wanted space
and a less crowded environment. In the past five decades the
suburbanization of America has rapidly progressed with suburbs
giving rise to newer suburbs and so the process continues. This
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003 / 333
J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.
phenomenon has resulted in the highest single-family housing and
auto ownership rates in the world, making it possible for millions
to realize the ‘‘American dream.’’
From 1970 to 1990, the density of urban population in the
United States decreased by 23%, and the vehicle-miles of travel
almost doubled. The 1970 census revealed for the first time that
within a metropolitan area more people lived outside a central
city than inside. This emptying of central cities, in terms of both
people and jobs, has continued, and in recent years a decreasing
proportion of the metropolitan population has economic or social
ties within the central city. A low-density metropolitan area makes
the provision of urban infrastructure expensive; the per unit cost
of constructing and maintaining roads, sewers, water lines, and
other municipal services increases when these facilities and ser-
vices must be delivered over a greater geographical area. For the
same reason, most urban transit systems in the United States
could not stay in business and over the past several decades had
to be publicly acquired to provide highly subsidized services.
While the unprecedented pace of urban expansion in the past half
century has brought increased opportunity for many, it has also
been responsible for a myriad of adverse side effects. These in-
clude large infrastructure costs, high commuting time and cost,
excessive dependence on automobiles resulting in safety, conges-
tion, air pollution, and other environmental problems. Many con-
sider these issues to be serious enough to threaten the nation’s
economic productivity, environmental sustainability, and social
well-being 共APTA 1996兲.
Table 1 presents data on urban density, automobile ownership
and use, and transit ridership for selected cities around the world
for 1990 and how they have changed relative to 1960 共Newman
and Kenworthy 1999; Kenworthy and Laube 1999a兲. The cities
represent metropolitan regions and densities are defined for the
urbanized area not including undeveloped space. From the 38
cities for which consistent data were available, only four of them
had an increase in their population densities: Los Angeles 7%,
San Diego 12%, Toronto 13%, and Phoenix 22%. Despite popu-
lation increases, these cities still rank among the least densely
populated at 24, 13, 42, and 11 persons per hectare, respectively.
Only Canberra, Australia, experienced no change during the 30-
year period. The remaining cities had a decrease in population
 density, primarily through loss of population from central cities to
suburbs and by incorporating more areas into the boundaries of
urbanized areas. The main conclusion is that urban areas world-
wide are sprawling. Although Asian cities still have the highest
population densities 共Hong Kong being the highest with about
300 persons per hectare兲, there is some evidence that they are
following the same pattern as European and North American cit-
ies, but at varying rates. The data clearly indicate a direct asso-
ciation between low urban densities and high private vehicle own-
ership and uses. In fact, the role of population density in
determining urban travel characteristics has been long established
共Levinson and Wynn 1962兲.
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Worldwide Motorization and Urbanization Trends
The rapid pace of motorization and urbanization is a worldwide
phenomenon. Fig. 1 shows population, motorization, and automo-
bile use trends and projections worldwide during the period
1960–2010 共World Bank 1996兲. It is clear that the urban popula-
tion is increasing at a much faster rate than the total population,
while the growth in automobile use is soaring compared to the
automobile fleet growth. Similar trends exist in the United States,
but with much smaller rates; for example, vehicle-miles are grow-
ing at an average annual rate of 2.5%, faster than the growth rate
of 1.8% in vehicles, and twice the rate of population increase.
What is of concern is that in low- and moderate-income countries,
vehicle growth is increasing at a higher rate than the gross na-
tional product 共GNP兲 growth and at a much higher pace than the
annual growth in GNP per capita.
Motorization goes hand in hand with urbanization. A recent
study estimated that during the next 15 years the average annual
urban population growth in the least developed countries will be
4.6%, compared to 0.6% estimated for cities in industrialized
countries 共UNCHS 2001兲. The explosion of urban population
growth is creating an increasing number of megacities 共more than
10 million inhabitants兲, mostly in the developing world. The num-
ber of megacities is expected to increase from 19 to 21 during this
decade, of which only Tokyo, New York, and Osaka, Japan, will
maintain this status among cities in developed countries. The
urban population in Lagos, Nigeria, and Dhaka, Bangladesh, is
expected to increase by about 50% by the year 2010 to be ranked
as the third and sixth most populated cities in the world, respec-
tively. While by now half of the world’s population is urban, it is
estimated that by 2030 over 60% of the world’s population of 8.1
billion will be living in cities 共UNCHS 2001兲.
Therefore, it seems that the process of urbanization that started
after the industrial revolution in the eighteenth century, when the
population of cities around the world was less than 30 million,
will continue well into the twenty-first century. Rapid motoriza-
tion and attendant urbanization can bring many environmental
risks and problems that can seriously jeopardize the sustainability
of cities. In cities of developing countries, the risks and the prob-
lems are much greater because of the overwhelming scale and
speed of urbanization compared to the available resources, par-
ticularly in the emerging megacities.
Automobile Dependency and Urban Transit Decline
With the combination of motorization and urbanization has come
the gradual decline of urban transit over the past several decades.
However, the size and shape of several cities around the world
334 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003
J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.
would be much different today if not for the advents in public
transportation, as the rapid rail and electric streetcar. For example,
few American cities during the first quarter of the twentieth cen-
tury would have been able to grow as large or as rapidly without
the help of the electric rail and would not have resulted in lower
automobile dependence a century later when compared to other
smaller cities 共e.g., Miami, Houston, Phoenix, etc.兲 that were later
shaped almost from scratch by automobiles and highways that
accommodated them. Electrical and other related technologies
made the United States lead the world in public transit use by
1920 when Americans averaged about 250 transit trips per capita
on the nation’s 65,000 km of electric railway, about eight-fold the
current rate 共TRB 2001兲.
It was another transportation advancement that would soon
induce a decline in transit demand levels. In the 1920s the auto-
mobile was transformed from a recreational vehicle into the na-
tion’s most popular mode of transportation. Henry Ford’s Model
T and the affordable automobile it spurred were welcomed enthu-
siastically by many urban dwellers dissatisfied with what they
perceived as increasingly unresponsive and obsolete electric rail
service. Eventually, the automobile became the transport mode
materializing the freedom of travel, while transit was relegated to
a secondary means of transport left for those who did not have
access to the use of automobiles. In fact, a similar phenomenon is
currently taking place in the developing world, where automobile
dependency is increasing at a rapid pace. One reason for this
trend in many cities in developing countries is the lack of a rapid
transit option as their transit fleet is made up of mostly buses that
are often stuck in traffic 共Kenworthy and Laube 1999a兲. Hence,
those who have the income acquire motorized vehicles as soon as
possible to improve their travel speeds. For example, automobile
ownership in Seoul increased from 60,000 to 2 million during
1975–1998, a 33-fold increase 共Chung and Lee 2002兲. Also, those
who have visited Beijing periodically over the past 20 years
would be able to tell how the almost exclusively bicycle and
transit traffic in the early years has seen the increasing appearance
of motorcycles and then automobiles in recent years.
As we start the twenty-first century, it seems that history could
be repeating itself since the same factors that resulted in the rise
and decline of transit in cities in the United States and other
developed countries are currently being observed in cities of the
developing world: rapid urban population growth, rising personal
incomes, a general willingness of the public to have travel
choices, decreasing transit levels of service, and urban sprawl.
Some countries and cities in both developed and developing
countries have taken deliberate measures to curb the growth of
automobiles and their use through pricing and other means. Sin-
gapore is the best example of these efforts. However, even in
Singapore with centralized planning and strong government con-
trol, the ownership and use of automobiles continue to grow.
It is clear that the attraction of private automobiles over public
transportation is so overwhelming that it is not an easy task to
lure travelers to urban transit, unless land-use policies and eco-
nomic measures are combined with dramatic improvement in the
levels of transit service. Before we explore possible ways of pro-
moting transit use, it will be worthwhile to examine the interre-
lationships between transit, land use, and automobiles and how
they affect transportation sustainability.
Indicators of Urban Transportation Sustainability
Indicators can be developed to assess the sustainability of urban
transportation systems and can be used as a reference in the for-
 Table 2. Pearson Coefficients for Key Land Use—Transportation Variables
Variables 1960 1970 1980 1990 1960–1990
Urban population density
Transit boardings per capita 0.76 0.66 0.66 0.69 0.67
Total energy consumption per capita ⫺0.51 ⫺0.54 ⫺0.64 ⫺0.69 ⫺0.58
Car kilometers of travel per car ⫺0.43 ⫺0.64 ⫺0.64 ⫺0.38 ⫺0.51
Cars per 1,000 people ⫺0.78 ⫺0.79 ⫺0.80 ⫺0.82 ⫺0.71
Parking spaces in CBD per 1,000 employees ⫺0.55 ⫺0.62 ⫺0.47 ⫺0.49 ⫺0.46
Road length per capita ⫺0.70 ⫺0.60 ⫺0.65 ⫺0.67 ⫺0.61
Energy consumption by private modes per capita ⫺0.63 ⫺0.56 ⫺0.65 ⫺0.69 ⫺0.60
Car kilometers of travel per capita ⫺0.76 ⫺0.70 ⫺0.72 ⫺0.71 ⫺0.64
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Car occupant kilometers of travel capita ⫺0.80 ⫺0.73 ⫺0.74 ⫺0.72 ⫺0.66
Boardings per transit kilometer of travel 0.76 0.77 0.43 0.45 0.48
Number of cars per 1,000 people
Energy consumption by private modes per capita 0.86 0.91 0.86 0.86 0.84
Transit boardings per capita ⫺0.83 ⫺0.84 ⫺0.75 ⫺0.71 ⫺0.65
Parking spaces in CBD per 1,000 employees 0.49 0.72 0.55 0.56 0.54
Energy consumption by cars 0.90 0.91 0.84 0.85 0.83
Passenger kilometers of travel using transit per capita ⫺0.75 ⫺0.66 ⫺0.60 ⫺0.63 ⫺0.54
Road length per capita 共m兲 0.51 0.69 0.72 0.72 0.57
Boardings per transit kilometer of travel ⫺0.61 ⫺0.70 ⫺0.49 ⫺0.54 ⫺0.55
Road length per capita
Energy consumption by private modes per capita 0.50 0.65 0.72 0.74 0.63
Car kilometers of travel per capita 0.59 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.61
Transit boardings per capita ⫺0.52 ⫺0.64 ⫺0.75 ⫺0.76 ⫺0.67
Boardings per transit kilometer of travel ⫺0.53 ⫺0.65 ⫺0.70 ⫺0.71 ⫺0.63
Parking spaces in CBD per 1,000 employees 0.71 0.67 0.70 0.66 0.66
Vehicles per 1,000 people 0.56 0.75 0.78 0.74 0.60
Energy consumption by all modes per capita 0.29 0.62 0.72 0.74 0.57
Transit boardings per capita per year
Parking spaces in CBD per 1,000 employees ⫺0.61 ⫺0.71 ⫺0.66 ⫺0.71 ⫺0.64
Car kilometers of travel per car ⫺0.36 ⫺0.61 ⫺0.64 ⫺0.49 ⫺0.52
Parking spaces in CBD per 1,000 employees
Boardings per transit kilometer of travel ⫺0.50 ⫺0.59 ⫺0.46 ⫺0.55 ⫺0.52
Job density
Transit boardings per capita 0.77 0.78 0.77 0.78 0.77
Car kilometers of travel per car —a ⫺0.62 ⫺0.65 ⫺0.40 ⫺0.49
Cars per 1,000 people ⫺0.74 ⫺0.65 ⫺0.78 ⫺0.79 ⫺0.65
Road length per capita ⫺0.57 ⫺0.56 ⫺0.70 ⫺0.69 ⫺0.62
Total energy consumption per capita —a ⫺0.61 ⫺0.69 ⫺0.70 ⫺0.62
Boardings per transit kilometer of travel 0.73 0.61 0.61 0.56 0.59
a
Not significant at 95% confidence level.

mulation of future policies. The main database used in the present
analysis covered decennial data during the period 1960–1990
from 46 cities in the United States, Australia, Canada, Western
Europe, and Asia 共Kenworthy and Laube 1999a兲. The time period
in the database includes years when automobiles started to pen-
etrate European cities, significantly lagging cities in the United
States by several decades, as well as the period in which cities in
developing countries started the massive adoption of motorized
transport. This database was augmented by data on transport, en-
vironment, safety, and expenditure from 37 international cities for
the year 1990 共Newman and Kenworthy 1999兲. Table 1 summa-
rizes some of the data from these databases.
The analysis consisted of simple bivariate regressions to show
whether or not there existed certain basic relationships across the
international sample and whether or not these relationships are
consistent across time and across cities. Key sustainability indi-
cators were regressed at each other and against main socioeco-
nomic and demographic variables. The Pearson product-moment
correlation was considered as the measure of correlation and
P-values were set at the 5% significance level to test the hypoth-
esis that the statistic was zero. These pairwise correlations mea-
sure the strength of the linear relationship between two variables.
If an exact linear relationship exists, the correlation will be 1 or
⫺1, depending on whether the slope of the relationship is positive
or negative. A correlation of 0 indicates that neither variable has
any linear relationship with the other 共although they may have a
nonlinear relationship兲. A similar procedure was used in previous
studies 共Kenworthy and Laube 1999b; Ingram and Liu 1999兲.
However, the emphasis of the earlier studies was on the patterns
and costs of automobile dependence, without explicitly consider-
ing the issue of sustainability or attempting to analyze the avail-
able panel data.
Table 2 presents a partial list of the Pearson correlations for
land use transportation variables for cross-sectional decennial
data as well as for a four-point decennial panel data of world
cities during the period 1960–1990. All values were statistically

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003 / 335

J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.

 Table 3. Regression Results and Elasticity Values for Major Cities Around the World
336 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003

Elasticity Semielasticity 共A兲

Independent variable 共x兲 Dependent variable 共y兲 Equation R2 共at mean兲 Elasticity 共B兲
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Urban population Cars per 1,000 people y⫽627.58*e ⫺0.0106X 0.8378 ⫺0.0106X 共⫺0.57兲 共A兲 An increase of 10 persons/ hectare in population density
density decreases the number of cars per 1,000 people by 10.6%.
共persons/ha兲
Urban population Transit boardings y⫽138.37Ln共X兲⫺273.54 0.7045 关Ln共X兲⫺1.9769] ⫺1 共A兲 A 10% increase in population density increases transit
density per capita/year 共0.50兲 boardings per capita per year by about 14.
共persons/ha兲
Urban population Transportation energy y⫽277,345X ⫺0.6358 0.7973 ⫺0.636 共B兲 A 10% increase in population density decreases
density consumption by private transportation energy consumption by private modes per capita
共persons/ha兲 modes 共MJ/capita兲 per year by 6.4%.
Urban population Car kilometers of travel y⫽65,743X ⫺0.7351 0.8273 ⫺0.735 共B兲 A 10% increase in population density decreases car
density per capita per year kilometers of travel per capita per year by 7.4%.
共persons/ha兲
Urban population Carbon dioxide emissions y⫽18,189X ⫺0.5992 0.8117 ⫺0.599 共B兲 A 10% increase in population density decreases carbon
density from transportation dioxide emissions from transportation per capita per year by 6%.
共persons/ha兲 共kg/cap/year兲
Urban population Transit cost y⫽0.2696Ln共X兲⫺0.3511 0.6219 关Ln共X兲⫺1.3023] ⫺1 共0.35兲 共A兲 A 10% increase in population density increases transit
density recovery factor recovery factor by 0.027.
共persons/ha兲
Transit boardings per Transportation energy y⫽⫺17,130Ln共X兲⫹122,749 0.731 关Ln共X兲⫺7.1657] ⫺1 共A兲 A 10% increase in transit boardings per capita per year
capita/year consumption 共⫺0.54兲 decreases transportation energy consumption per capita per year
共MJ/ capita/year兲 by 1,713 MJ.
Cars per 1,000 people Transit boardings y⫽673.63e ⫺0.0036X 0.4985 ⫺0.0036X 共A兲 An increase of 10 in the number of cars per 1,000 people
per capita/year 共⫺1.551兲 decreases transit boardings per capita per year by 3.6%.
Car kilometers of travel Transit boardings y⫽642.17e ⫺0.0002X 0.7413 ⫺0.0002X 共A兲 An increase of 100 car kilometers of travel per capita per
per capita per year per capita/year 共⫺1.285兲 year decreases transit boardings per capita per year by 2.0%.
Journey to work Annual fatalities y⫽21.671X ⫺0.2331 0.2424 ⫺0.233 共B兲 A 10% increase in the share of work trips done by transit
by transit 共%兲 from crashes decreases annual fatalities from crashes per 100,000 people by
per 100,000 people 2.3%.
Journey to work CO2 emissions y⫽⫺1,291.8Ln共X兲⫹6,505.6 0.6367 关Ln共X兲⫺5.0361] ⫺1 共A兲 A 10% increase in the transit share of work trips decreases
by transit 共%兲 共kg/capita/year兲 共⫺0.60兲 CO2 emissions per capita per year by 130 kg.
Road length Cars per 1,000 y⫽165.78Ln共X兲⫹237.2 0.6996 关Ln共X兲 ⫹ 1.4308] ⫺1 共A兲 A 10% increase in road length per capita increases the
共m/capita兲 population 共0.34兲 number of cars per 1,000 people by 17.
Road length Car kilometers of travel y⫽2,262.1X 0.7031 0.7629 0.703 共B兲 A 10% increase in road length per capita increases car
共m/capita兲 per capita/year kilometers of travel per capita per year by 7%.
Parking spaces Transit boardings y⫽474.5e ⫺0.0036X 0.6622 ⫺0.0036X 共A兲 An increase of 10 parking spaces per 1,000 employees
per 1,000 employees per capita/year 共⫺1.27兲 decreases transit boardings per capita per year by 3.6%.
Road expenditures per Journey to work y⫽52.895e ⫺0.006X 0.3772 ⫺0.006X 共A兲 An increase of $10 in road expenditures per capita per year
capita/year 共$兲 by transit 共%兲 共⫺0.90兲 decreases the share of transit of work trips by 6%.
Extra private mode Journey to work y⫽74.537X⫹7.1046 0.3216 (1⫹0.09532X) ⫺1 共0.97兲 共B兲 At the mean, an increase of 10% in the additional travel cost
cost/km of travel 共$兲 by transit 共%兲 per kilometer by car as compared to transit fare per kilometer
results in an increase of 9.7% in the share of transit of work trips.

J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.

Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
Fig. 2. Impact of urban population density on transit and private car demand
significant at the 95% confidence interval, except in two cases.
The main conclusion is that certain basic and systematic relation-
ships exist and are consistent across time and across cities. Urban
population density and job density were positively and signifi-
cantly correlated with transit boardings per capita per year, as
identified by Pearson coefficients of 0.67 and 0.77, respectively,
during the 30-year period. On the contrary, per capita demand for
transit was strongly and negatively correlated with the provision
of roads 共⫺0.67兲, number of parking spaces per employee in cen-
tral business district 共CBD兲 共⫺0.52兲, private vehicle ownership
共⫺0.65兲, and automobile use 共⫺0.52兲. As for the energy con-
sumed per capita for transportation purposes, it was negatively
correlated with the urban population density and job density
共⫺0.60兲, but positively correlated with the provision of roads
共0.57兲 and the demand for private vehicles 共0.84兲. As for emis-
sions and fatalities from passenger travel activity, available data
for the year 1990 showed a statistically significant negative cor-
relation between the percentage of work trips made by transit
with carbon-dioxide emission by all modes 共⫺0.76兲 and number
of fatalities per 100,000 population 共⫺0.33兲. Similarly, the share
of work trips by transit was negatively correlated with invest-
ments in roads 共⫺0.54兲 and the price of gasoline 共⫺0.7兲.
Table 3 shows the regression equations, corresponding coeffi-
cients of determination, and elasticity values obtained from bi-
variate trend analyses for key variables for the most recent year
for which data were available for the sample of world cities
共1990兲. Although most of the coefficients of determination were
relatively high, urban population density explained the largest
amount of variation when regressed against other variables. Fig. 2
shows the curves obtained when regressing urban population den-
sity against transit boardings per capita per year and car kilome-
ters of travel per capita per year. The sensitivity of these relation-
ships was most critical in cities with relatively low densities 共less
than 75 persons per hectare兲. Similar conclusions can be drawn
when urban activity density 共population and jobs兲 is regressed
against transit and private car demand variables, indicating the
importance of having a high level of mixed land uses within
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003 / 337
J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.
urban areas. Urban activity density also significantly explained a
large percentage of the variability in the amount of energy con-
sumed by passenger car travel 共80%兲 and associated CO2 emis-
sions 共81%兲, as well as in the need for more road capacity 共88%兲.
The relationship between road provision and urban population
density, as shown in Fig. 3, further illustrates the critical role of
low-density developments. The need for road infrastructure rose
drastically even for a small decrease in density in already low-
density areas, adding to the need for increased travel. Literature
suggests the overall elasticities of vehicle-miles of travel with
respect to lane-miles of capacity to be between 0.5 and 1.0, indi-
cating that a 10% increase in capacity increases the demand for
travel by between 5 and 10% 共STTP 2001兲. The results of the
present analysis indicate that road length per capita 共a proxy for
road capacity兲 explained 70 and 76% of the variability in auto-
mobile ownership and automobile use, respectively. Furthermore,
higher population densities resulted in higher transit recovery fac-
tors, explaining 62% of their variation. Similarly, as the cost of
travel per kilometer by private modes of transport increased with
respect to that by transit, the share of work trips by transit in-
creased, explaining 32% of the variation.
Elasticity values indicate the sensitivity of a dependent vari-
able due to a given rate of change in the independent variable.
Table 3 gives the elasticity or semielasticity values associated
with each of the regression equations. For example, a 10% in-
crease in urban population density could decrease transportation
energy consumption by private modes per capita per year by 6.4%
and CO2 emissions from transportation per capita per year by 6%.
Similarly, a 10% increase in transit boardings per capita per year
could decrease transportation energy consumption per capita per
year by about 1,700 million joules or a 10% increase in the transit
share of work trips can decrease CO2 emissions per capita per
year by about 130 kg. At the same time a 10% increase in parking
spaces per 1,000 people could decrease transit boardings per
capita per year by about 3.6%.
Figure 4 shows a plot of transit ridership elasticity against
population density. Elasticities are much higher at low-density
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.

Fig. 3. Urban population density and road provision

levels and become asymptotic beyond about 100 persons/hectare.
Densities of most American cities were in the range of 12–15
persons/hectare and Asian cities in the sample were in the range
of 100–300 persons/hectare, with the cities in Europe having 50–
100 persons/hectare. The implication is that even a small increase
in the density in American cities can bring about a dramatic
change in their transportation systems.
Can Transit Ensure Sustainability?
The statistical analyses of the available data clearly indicate that
increased transit use is indeed associated with overall sustainabil-
ity. However, the fundamental variable that holds the key to in-
creased transit use and transportation sustainability is urban popu-
lation density, or more specifically, the activity density
共population and jobs兲. Increased density is associated with less
ownership and use of automobiles, less road and parking facili-
ties, and high transit use. Increased density can also be expected
to induce higher walking and other nonmotorized trips, contribut-
ing further to sustainability. All these contribute to less energy
consumption, less air pollution, less use of land and other re-
sources, and thus to the assurance of a sustainable and a livable
community. For example, the present analysis indicates that an
additional person per hectare in Boston could potentially increase
transit boardings by 19 per capita per year. This would also re-
duce automobile ownership by six per 1,000 people and automo-
bile use by 634 car-kilometers per capita per year. These changes
would mean reductions in transportation energy consumption by
3,100 MJ per capita per year and transportation CO2 emissions by
212 kg per capita per year, respectively.
The issue is then how can we arrest the progression of low-
density urban sprawl. So far the response to congestion has been
to continue to invest in highways. Most critics of current land-use
trends in the United States believe that our investment policies
should be redirected from highways to mass transit. Transit ori-

Fig. 4. Transit ridership elasticities as function of urban population density

338 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003

J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.

 ented developments 共TOD兲, some believe, is the key to reversing
the current trend of ‘‘boundless sprawl’’ and ‘‘dying cities’’
共APTA 1996兲. In this concept, urban growth would be accommo-
dated by the development of compact, pedestrian-scale communi-
ties centered on transit stations and linked with one another by a
regional transit system. This way transit systems could become
the critical elements in metropolitan planning and design. What-
ever the approach may be, the fact that traffic and the demand for
travel may be controlled by deliberately guiding land use has
been seriously recognized only recently by public officials. Con-
sequently, urban transit lines, neotraditional development, transit
villages, and ‘‘smart growth’’ are becoming common themes in
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
many communities in the United States today 共Sinha 2000兲.
While urban-transportation sustainability is directly linked
with transit and transit’s viability depends on urban density, it is
essential that we pursue a combination of efforts to achieve sus-
tainable transportation systems. Mere marketing or even efforts to
improve levels of service will not make much difference unless
these initiatives are supported by other factors, mainly policies
that encourage mixed land uses and higher population densities
and that internalize the societal costs of private modes of trans-
portation and urban sprawl to influence household choices for
travel mode and residential and job location. Following is a set of
possible actions that need to be addressed in order for transit to
help ensure sustainable urban transportation systems. Not all of
these approaches are equally applicable in developed and devel-
oping countries and in cities of different income levels.
• Long-Range Land Use Transportation Policies: These should
promote compact and mixed-use developments that balance
work and housing locations and provide appropriate transpor-
tation infrastructure, including adequate transit systems to
allow residents in central cities to access jobs in suburbs and to
provide a viable alternative to suburbanites who commute to
central cities or other areas in the suburbs. Markets would be
stimulated for flexible, short haul public transit services and
private transportation options such as hybrid cars, station cars,
other alternative fuel vehicles, and even human-powered ve-
hicles. In addition, developments should be planned to have as
many activities as possible located within easy walking dis-
tance of transit stops.
• Smart Growth in Central Cities and Suburbs: Traditional
means of land-use control, mainly through local zoning, are
not effective in achieving livable communities. There is a need
for coordinated regional land-use policies based on the con-
cept of growth guidance rather than control.
• National, Regional, and Local Coordination: Sustainability is-
sues cross jurisdictional boundaries, making it difficult for any
single community to address them. Coordination is necessary
in instituting major transportation investments and policies
among local, regional, and national authorities. A major prob-
lem for coordination has been the existence of many jurisdic-
tions with fragmented and often conflicting decision making. A
recent example of area-wide effort for sustainable transporta-
tion is Atlanta where integrated transportation planning is
being pursued at a regional level to deal with the issues of
urban growth, mobility, clean air, and the development of a
regional transportation system. The leverage of transportation
funding has been effectively used to make suburban counties
join a regional bus system providing a significant boost for the
Georgia Regional Transportation Agency in its efforts to man-
age traffic congestion by curbing automobile use 共Firestone
2002兲.
• Pricing: Policies are needed to internalize the societal costs
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003 / 339
J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.
resulting from automobile use and urban sprawl. These poli-
cies would give nonmotorized and transit modes a fair chance
to compete, particularly at the local and neighborhood levels.
Measures should not be restricted to higher automobile and
fuel taxes and higher parking costs, but they should also in-
clude charges for driving in certain areas and on certain times
of the day, charges for the extent of the use of the vehicle, and
higher impact fees for the choice of living in low density
areas. Additional revenues generated can be used for improv-
ing public transit and road safety, developing vehicle and fuel
technologies, and instituting emergency services and other
programs. It should be noted that the concept of congestion
pricing appears to be within the realm of possible implemen-
tation with advances in information and communication tech-
nologies. Singapore is leading the way with electronic road
pricing and it will be interesting to see how other cities follow
suit.
• Balanced Investments in Transportation Supply: Improve-
ments in transportation, whether physically or by means of
technological advances, should be based on the principle that
automobiles are only one part of the transportation system
rather than the focus. Discouraging the overreliance on pri-
vately owned cars will not succeed unless people are given
comparable fast and efficient transportation alternatives,
whether bus, light rail, subway, walking, or cycling.
• Adequate Infrastructure for Nonmotorized Transportation:
Unless the needs of nonmotorized modes of travel are met, it
will not be possible to achieve any sustainable transportation
system. If the infrastructure design does not meet the require-
ments of walking and other nonmotorized modes, all modes of
transport operate in suboptimal conditions. The role of nonmo-
torized transportation is particularly critical in many cities in
developing countries where a high percentage of trips is still
made by walking and biking.
• Use of Technology to Reorganize Urban Functions: Transit
agencies, local governments, and private corporations, work-
ing together, can use information and communication tech-
nologies to recenter urban areas and to spatially reorganize its
functions in order to make public transit more effective and to
expand the transit options available to citizens.
What is the Role of Technological Innovations?
It is obvious that if transit has to compete with the use of private
automobiles under existing conditions of land use and other fac-
tors, its level of service has to be dramatically improved without
driving the cost astronomically high. Emerging information and
communication technologies can play an important role to im-
prove transit levels of service through increased operating effi-
ciency, service reliability, and greater access to information on
systems operation in real time. There are several efforts underway
in the United States and other parts of the world under the um-
brella of Advanced Public Transportation Systems 共APTS兲 tech-
nologies that can reduce the resistance to transit use, make it user
friendly, and reduce both in-vehicle and access travel times. Al-
though there is little information available from specific transit
systems on impacts of the use of these technologies, estimated
benefits projected for all APTS technology deployment in the
United States that are currently operational, under implementa-
tion, or planned over the period 2000–2009 would range from as
low as $3.9 billion to as high as $9.6 billion in year 2000 dollars
共Goedell 2000兲. Although no corresponding figures for costs are
 available, transit agencies that have deployed APTS technologies
have concluded that the potential benefits of these technologies
outweigh the capital and operating expenses.
APTS deployments can lead to measurable improvements in
transit service and access, but whether these improvements would
appreciably change public perception about using transit is yet to
be seen 共Casey and Labell 2000兲. A recent study revealed that
passengers value features that APTS technologies offer, but con-
cluded that expected ridership increase resulting from these tech-
nologies is moderate 共Peng et al. 2002兲. In fact, technology by
itself will not be able to improve transit ridership, as there are
many reasons why people do not use transit, such as incompatible
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
land use patterns, free or inexpensive parking, lack of comfort
and privacy, affordability of driving, and unsuitability for trip-
chaining and carrying packages. Most of these factors cannot be
overcome by APTS applications 共Casey and Labell 2000兲.
While the potential exists for improving transit service through
technological innovations, it is debatable if the expected benefit in
terms of increased ridership would be justified for the cost of
implementing these technologies. An important consideration
from the users’ perspective is that transit ridership is intrinsically
linked to land use, and time and cost of travel by private modes of
transportation. In fact, recent emphasis on applications of Intelli-
gent Transportation Systems 共ITS兲 technologies to improve the
level of service of automobile travel may further widen the gap
that exists between transit and private automobiles. Even if tech-
nologies could dramatically improve the level of service of transit
and attract choice riders, cities in most developing countries will
not be able to bear the cost of these technologies and there are
other innovative and cost-effective approaches to making transit
attractive. An example is the implementation of rapid bus transit
共busways兲 in Curitiba, Brazil. There are also successful innova-
tive experiences in the United States of achieving sustainability
through viable and competitive transit systems by integrating land
use, transportation, and information and communication technolo-
gies. The Blue Line TeleVillage 共BLTV兲 project in California
demonstrated how telecommunication networks can be employed
to create utilities that are normally found in a traditional village or
town center near a public transit station. Among these, the center
included a telework facility to allow telecommuting.
The key to the innovation is the use of information and com-
munication technologies to provide a seamless intermodal trans-
portation so that transit can play a significant role in metropolitan
transportation by being competitive and this can slow down the
growth in automobile ownership. A recent study concluded that
the existence of a seamless intermodal system is necessary, not
only to avoid shifting from transit to automobiles, but also to
prevent increases in multivehicle households 共Karlaftis and
Golias 2002兲.
The growing popularity of telecommuting and use of the In-
ternet for shopping and business may, in the long run, have a
negative effect by encouraging further dispersion of urban activi-
ties, making provision of transit service more difficult. However,
with integrated planning of land use and transportation systems,
supported with appropriate pricing policies, it can indeed be pos-
sible to harness potentials of emerging technologies to create liv-
able communities with sustainable transportation. With a fully
functioning information-technology oriented society, new urban
developments and even existing cities can be a collection of thriv-
ing neighborhoods where automobiles will exist, but not as an
absolute necessity 共Sinha 2000兲. Neighborhoods can include ge-
neric workstations as well as facilities for most shopping and
entertainment needs. Transportation can mostly be by foot, bi-
340 / JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003
J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.
cycle, green vehicles, or transit, minimizing parking needs and
travel externally. Once a good part of our daily commuting and
other automobile trips can be eliminated, available arterial road
capacity can be allocated for regional bus rapid transit to provide
a competitive level of service. Public transportation can thus be
economically viable by linking local neighborhood services with
regional rapid transit.
Conclusions
Sustainability, transit, land use, and technology are intrinsically
related. Their strongest and most effective relationship is materi-
alized in the existence of seamless and intermodal transportation
systems, which is essential for the success of urban transit and for
the long-term viability of cities around the world. Countermea-
sures to burgeoning problems of motorization will undoubtedly
involve the use of technology to enhance the operation of the
transportation network. Technological innovations have the po-
tential to create sustainable transportation systems by promoting
transit use and presenting it as a viable alternative to private
modes of transport and a facilitator for livable communities. Pro-
found changes are, however, needed in current policies and regu-
lations that promote urban sprawl and automobile use. This will
not be achieved unless there is political will and desire to com-
promise on some conflicting interests. In this regard, there is a
need to manage growth rather than controlling it and this should
be done at both urban cores and suburbs. Concerted efforts must
therefore be made to revitalize metropolitan areas as a collection
of livable communities with transit integrated into a seamless
transportation system connecting suburbs with suburbs and with
central cities.
Specific efforts will obviously vary from city to city. However,
even the most robust land use and transportation policies and
plans will not succeed unless these are complemented by mea-
sures that can induce significant changes in the travelers’ choices
and behaviors. Those who choose to own and use private vehicles
for their transportation and those who opt to live in low-density
suburbs should pay for the externalities of their decisions through
an equitable and fair pricing mechanism. Recent campaigns to
raise awareness regarding the consequences of the increasing
popularity of sport utility vehicles in the United States indicate
that public opinions about limitless growth of automotive con-
sumption may be shifting.
To think that the process of urbanization or continued depen-
dence on private modes of travel can be stopped or reversed is a
faulty assumption. The most one can expect is to slow and guide
the process sufficiently. Similarly, to rely solely on transit and
technology in achieving sustainable transportation systems is not
realistic. We must think in terms of a comprehensive approach
involving land use, transportation planning, pricing, technology
and management innovations that can help in making the playing
field even for all competing transportation modes and thus even-
tually in fulfilling the goals of sustainability.
Acknowledgments
I gratefully acknowledge the effort of my graduate student, Ashad
Hamideh, whose help has been invaluable. I am also thankful to
Chris T. Hendrickson and Herbert S. Levinson for their thoughtful
comments. In addition, I thank my secretary, Jaclyn Whiteley, for
her skillful assistance.
 References
American Public Transit Association 共APTA兲. 共1996兲. ‘‘Mobility for the
21st century.’’ APTA 21st Century Task Force, Alexandria, Va.
Casey, R., and Labell, L. 共2000兲. ‘‘Advanced public transportation sys-
tems: The state of the art 2000.’’ Federal Highway Administration,
Washington, D.C.
Chung, J.-H., and Lee, D. 共2002兲. ‘‘A structural model of automobile
demand in Korea.’’ Presented, 81st Transportation Research Board
Annual Meeting, TRB, Washington, D.C.
Firestone, D. 共2002兲. ‘‘Overcoming a taboo, buses will now serve subur-
ban Atlanta.’’ New York Times, April 8, A14.
Goedell, D. 共2000兲. ‘‘Benefits assessment of advanced public transporta-
Downloaded from ascelibrary.org by North Carolina State University on 12/30/12. Copyright ASCE. For personal use only; all rights reserved.
tion system technologies.’’ Federal Highway Administration, Wash-
ington, D.C.
Ingram, G., and Liu, Z. 共1999兲. ‘‘Determinants of motorization and road
provision,’’ Essays in transportation economics and policy: A hand-
book in honor of John R. Meyer, Brookings Institution Press, Wash-
ington, D.C., 325–356.
Karlaftis, M., and Golias, J. 共2002兲. ‘‘Automobile ownership, autoless
households and urban traffic parameters: Are they related?’’ Pre-
sented, 81st Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, TRB,
Washington, D.C.
Kenworthy, J., and Laube, F. 共1999a兲. An international sourcebook of
automobile dependence in cities 1960–1990, University Press of
Colorado, Boulder.
Kenworthy, J., and Laube, F. 共1999b兲. ‘‘Patterns of automobile depen-
dence in cities: An international overview of key physical and eco-
nomic dimensions with some implications for urban policy.’’ Trans-
portation Research Part A 33, Transportation Research Board,
Washington, D.C., 691–723.
Levinson, H. S., and Wynn, F. H. 共1962兲. ‘‘Effects of density on urban
JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING © ASCE / JULY/AUGUST 2003 / 341
J. Transp. Eng. 2003.129:331-341.
transportation requirements.’’ Highway Research Record 2, Highway
Research Board, Washington, D.C.
Meadows, D., et al. 共1974兲. The limits to growth, Universe Books, New
York.
National Academy of Engineering 共NAE兲. 共2000兲. ‘‘Greatest engineering
achievements of the 20th century.’’ NAE, Washington, D. C., 具http://
www.greatachievements.org典.
Newman, P., and Kenworthy, J. 共1999兲. ‘‘Costs of automobile depen-
dence: Global survey of cities.’’ Transportation Research Record
1670, Transportation Research Board, Washington, D.C.
Peng, Z.-R., Yu, D., and Beimborn, E. 共2002兲. ‘‘Transit user’s perceptions
of AVL benefits.’’ Presented, 81st Transportation Research Board An-
nual Meeting, TRB, Washington, D.C.
Richardson, B. 共2000兲. ‘‘Role of motor-vehicle industry in a sustainable
transportation system.’’ Transportation Research Record 1702, Trans-
portation Research Board, Washington, D.C., 21–27.
Sinha, K. C. 共2000兲. ‘‘Can technologies cure transportation ills?’’ 6th Int.
Conf. on Applications of Advanced Technologies in Transportation
Engineering, National Univ. of Singapore, Singapore.
Surface Transportation Policy Project 共STTP兲. 共2001兲. 10 years of
progress 1991–2001: building better communities through transpor-
tation, Washington, D.C.
Transportation Research Board 共TRB兲. 共2001兲. Special Report 257—
Making Transit Work: Insight From Western Europe, Canada, and the
United States, Washington, D.C.
United Nations Center for Human Settlements 共UNCHS兲. 共2001兲. The
state of the world’s cities, Kenya.
United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development
共UNWCED兲. 共1987兲. Our common future, Oxford University Press,
Oxford, U.K.
World Bank. 共1996兲. Sustainable transportation, Washington, D.C.