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Deutsche Bank Issues Warning On Rising Inflation
Deutsche Bank Issues Warning On Rising Inflation
investopedia.com/deutsche-bank-issues-warning-on-rising-inflation-5188430
By Mark Kolakowski
Key Takeaways
Deutsche Bank projects a significant burst of inflation in 2022.
The report says the culprits are "off the charts" fiscal stimulus and "increased
tolerance for inflation" at the Federal Reserve.
If the Fed allows inflation to exceed 4%, history indicates that attempts to rein it in
will spark a "significant recession" and global "financial distress."
In a recent research paper, Deutsche Bank predicts that inflation is bound to accelerate,
as the result of the biggest policy shift in 40 years, in which governments have made
various social goals a bigger priority than controlling inflation and the rise of government
debt. The key issue discussed in the paper is whether this uptick in inflation is a passing
phenomenon, or a long-term issue with critical implications for the health of the global
economy. "Either way, higher inflation is coming and policymakers are about to face their
toughest battle in 40 years," Deutsche Bank warns.1
Below is a summary of the key points raised in this paper, which bears the title of
"Inflation: The defining macro story of this decade." This is the first in a new series of
occasional reports that Deutsche Bank plans to release under the banner of "What's in the
tails?" 2
After the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08, the high and rising levels of sovereign debt
became a key concern of policymakers. However, voters around the globe indicated that
their own chief concerns were about inequality and slow economic growth, leading to
gains for "populist parties and unconventional leaders." At the same time, continued low
inflation and low interest rates in the face of rapidly rising government debt led a growing
number of economists to become "more relaxed" about the levels of debt that countries
could sustain.3
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In the U.S., the Federal Reserve typically used to raise interest rates when it forecasted
that inflation was on track to overshoot its target. The Fed now indicates that, instead, it
will not act preemptively in this fashion, preferring to wait until inflation actually has
exceeded its target. This shift in policy, in the view of the report, "only increases tolerance
for inflation," even as stimulative fiscal policy has gone "off the charts."3
The U.S. federal deficit is likely to be about $3 trillion, roughly 14-15% of GDP in both
2020 and 2021, and remain in the mid-to-high single digit range thereafter. By
comparison, the deficit in 2009 was $1.8 trillion in 2020 dollars, or 10% of GDP.4
The last time that the U.S. federal government ran deficits that represented similar
percentages of GDP was during World War II, when the deficits ranged between 15% and
30% of GDP for four years, from 1942 to 1945. In the three immediate postwar years from
1946 to 1948, the annual inflation rates were, respectively, 8.4%, 14.6%, and 7.7%.5
Pointing to recent history, the report indicates that the Fed has failed to achieve a soft
landing for the economy whenever it has pursued monetary tightening after allowing
inflation to exceed 4%. "Policymakers are about to enter a far more difficult world than
they have seen for several decades," the authors conclude.4
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