KENDRIYA VIDYALAYA NO.

1,
ST
BHUBANESHWAR (1 SHIFT)

MATHEMATICS ART INTEGRATED

PROJECT
SESSION – 2020-21

PROBABILITY

Name – Shradha Suman Mohapatra & Anwesha Kar

Class & Section – XII B
CBSE Roll No –
Subject – Mathematics
 CERTIFICATE

This is to certify that Shradha Suman Mohapatra (Roll No

10) and Anwesha Kar (Roll No 11), Class XII B of Kendriya
Vidyalaya No.1, Bhubaneshwar (1st Shift) have successfully
completed their project titled ‘Probability’ during the
academic year 2020-21 in partial fulfilment of the
Mathematics Art Integrated Project.

Signature of Internal Signature of External

Examiner Examiner

Signature of Principal
 INDEX

Sr No Topic Page Nos

1 Introduction 1-3

2 Conditional Probability 4

3 Independent event 5-6

4 Bayes’ theorem 7

5 Random Variables and 8

Probability Distribution
6 Bernoulli Trials 9

7 Binomial Distribution 10

8 Conclusion 11 - 13

9 References 14
 INTRODUCTION

WHAT IS PROBABAILITY?
Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics
that deals with the occurrence of a random event. The value
is expressed from zero to one. Probability has been
introduced in Maths to predict how likely events are to
happen.

Probability is a measure of the likelihood of an event to

occur. Many events cannot be predicted with total certainty.
We can predict only the chance of an event to occur i.e, how
likely they are to happen, using it. Probability can range
from 0 to 1, where 0 means the event that is impossible and
1 indicates a certain event. The probability of all the events
in a sample adds up to 1.

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For example, when we toss a coin, either we get head or tail,
only two possible outcomes are possible (H,T). But if we
toss two coins in the air, three possibilities of events to
occur, such as both the coins show heads or both show tails
or one shows heads and one tail, i.e. (H,H), (H,T), (T,T).
Probability theory is widely used in the area of studies such
as statistics, finance, gambling, artificial intelligence,
machine learning, computer science, game theory, and
philosophy.

PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT
Assume an event ‘E’ can occur in ‘r’ ways out of a sum of
‘n’ probable or possible equally likely ways. Then the
probability of happening of the event or its success is
expressed as-
P(E) = r/n

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The probability that the even will not occur or known as its
failure is expressed as:
P(E’) = (n-r)/n = 1-(r/n)
E’ represents that the event will not occur.
Therefore, now we can say,
P(E) + P(E’) = 1
This means that the total of all the probabilities in any
random test or experiment is equal to 1.
What are Equally Likely Events?
When the events have the same theoretical probability of
happening, then they are called equally likely events. The
results of a sample space are called equally likely if all of
them have the same probability of occurring. For example, if
you throw a die, then the probability of getting 1 is 1/6.
Complementary Events
The possibility that there will be only two outcomes which
states that an event will occur or not. Like a person will
come or not come to your house. Basically, the complement
of an event occurring in the exact opposite that the
probability of it is not occurring.
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 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
The conditional probability of ‘A’ given ‘B’ is the
probability that event ‘A’ has occurred in a trial of a random
experiment for which it is known that event ‘B’ ha definitely
occurred.
It may be computed by means of the following formula:
P(A|B) = P(A∩B)/P(B)
Suppose a fair die has been rolled and you are asked to give
the probability that it was a five. There are six equally likely
outcomes, so your answer is 1/6. But suppose that before
you give your answer you are given the extra information
that the number rolled was odd. Since there are only three
odd numbers that are possible, one of which is five, you
would certainly revise your estimate of the likelihood that a
five was rolled from 1/6 to 1/3.

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 INDEPENDENT EVENT

In probability, two events are independent if the incidence of

one event does not affect the probability of the other event.
If the incidence of one event does affect the probability of
the other event, then the events are dependent.
There is a red 6-sided fair die and a blue 6-sided fair die.
Both dice are rolled at the same time. Let A be the event that
the red die's result is even. Let B be the event that the blue
die's result is odd. The outcome of the red die has no impact
on the outcome of the blue die. Likewise, the outcome of the
blue die does not affect the outcome of the red die.
P(A)= 1/2 regardless of whether B happens or not.
P(B)=1/2 regardless of whether A happens or not.
Therefore, the events are independent.
There are 3 green marbles and 5 blue marbles in a bag. Two
marbles are drawn from the bag at random. Let G be the
event that the first marble drawn is green. Let B be the event
that the second marble drawn is blue.

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Case 1: G happens
When the first marble drawn is green, there are 7 marbles
left in the bag, and 5 of them are blue. In this case, P(B)=
5/7

Case 2: G does not happen

When the first marble drawn is blue, there are 7 marbles left
in the bag, and 4 of them are blue. In this case, P(B)= 4/7
The incidence of G affects the probability of B. Therefore,
these events are not independent. In other words, they are
dependent.

BAYES’ THEOREM

Bayes’ Theorem Statement:

Let E1, E2,…, En be a set of events associated with a
sample space S, where all the events E1, E2,…, En have
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nonzero probability of occurrence and they form a partition
of S. Let A be any event associated with S, then according to
Bayes theorem,
P(Ei│A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)/n∑k=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek)
for any k = 1, 2, 3, …., n
Bayes’ Theorem Proof:
According to the conditional probability formula,
P(Ei│A) = P(Ei∩A)P(A) ⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(1)
Using the multiplication rule of probability,
P(Ei∩A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(2)
Using total probability theorem,
P(A) = n∑k=1P(Ek)P(A|Ek)⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯⋯(3)
Putting the values from equations (2) and (3) in equation 1,
we get
P(Ei│A) = P(Ei)P(A│Ei)/n∑k=1 P(Ek)P(A|Ek)

RANDOM VARIABLES AND PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION

A random variable is a real valued function whose domain is

the sample space of a random experiment.
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The probability distribution for a random variable describes
how the probabilities are distributed over the values of the
random variable. This function provides the probability for
each value of the random variable. The probability
distribution of a random variable X is the system of numbers
X: x1 x2 … xn
P(X): p1 p2 … pn
n

Where, pi>0, ∑ pi=1, i=1, 2, …, n

i=1

Let X be a random variable whose possible values x 1, x2, …,

xk occur with probabilities p1, p2, …, pk respectively, the
mean of X is denoted by

The variance of a discrete random variable X measures the

spread, or variability, of the distribution, and is defined by

The standard deviation is the square root of the variance.

BERNOULLI TRIALS

A random experiment whose outcomes are only of two

types, say success S and failure F, is a Bernoulli trial. The
probability of success is taken as p while that of failure is
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q=1− p. A random variable X will have Bernoulli
distribution with probability p if its probability distribution
is
P(X = x) = px (1 – p)1−x, for x = 0, 1 and P(X = x) = 0
for other values of x.
Here, 0 is failure and 1 is the success.

Conditions for Bernoulli Trials:

1. A finite number of trials.
2. Each trial should have exactly two outcomes: success or
failure.
3. Trials should be independent.
4. The probability of success or failure should be the same
in each trial.

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Suppose a random experiment with exactly two outcomes is

repeated n times independently. The probability of success is
p and that of failure is q. Assume that out of these n times,
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we get success for x times and failure for the remaining i.e.,
n−x times. The total number of ways in which we can have
success is nCx. A random variable X will have a binomial
distribution if-
P(X = x) = p(x) = nCx px qn-x,
for x = 0, 1, … , n and P(X = x) = 0 otherwise. Here, q=1– p.
Any such random variable X is binomial variate. A binomial
trial is a set of n independent Bernoullian trials.

Conditions for Binomial Distribution:

1. Each trial results in only two outcomes i.e., success and
failure.
2. The number of trials ‘n’ is finite.
3. The trials are independent of each other.
4. The probability of success, p or that of failure, q is
constant for each trial.

CONCLUSION
Applications of Probability

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Some of the applications of probability are predicting the
outcome when you:

 Flipping a coin.
 Choosing a card from the deck.
 Throwing a dice.
 Pulling a green candy from a bag of red candies.
 Winning a lottery 1 in many millions

Examples of Real-Life probability

Example

Weather Planning:
A probability forecast is an assessment of how likely an
event can occur in terms of percentage and record the risks
associated with weather. Meteorologists around the world
use different instruments and tools to predict weather
changes. They collect the weather forecast database from
around the world to estimate the temperature changes and
probable weather conditions for a particular hour, day, week,
and month. If there are 40 % chances of raining then the
weather condition is such that 40 out of 100 days it has
rained.

Example   
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Sports Strategies:
In sports, analyses are conducted with the help of probability
to understand the strengths and weaknesses of a particular
team or player. Analysts use probability and odds to foretell
outcomes regarding the team’s performance and members in
the sport.
Coaches use probability as a tool to determine in what areas
their team is strong enough and in which all areas they have
to work to attain victory. Trainers even use probability to
gauge the capacity of a particular player in his team and
when to allow him to play and against whom.
A cricket coach evaluates a player's batting and bowling
capability by taking his average performances in previous
matches before placing him in the line-up.

Example 

Insurance:
Insurance companies use the theory of probability or
theoretical probability for framing a policy or completing at
a premium rate. The theory of probability is a statistical
method used to predict the possibility of future outcomes.
Issuing health insurance for an alcoholic person is likely to
be more expensive compared to the one issued to a healthy
person. Statistical analysis shows high health risks for a
regular alcoholic person, ensuring them is a great financial

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risk given a higher probability of serious illness and hence
filing a claim of premium money.

Example   

In Games:
Blackjack, poker, gambling, all sports, board games, video
games use probability to know how likely a team or person
has chances to win. 
When two dices are rolled simultaneously, the outcomes will
be as given below:-

Summary
Probability plays a vital role in the day-to-day life. In the
weather forecast, sports and gaming strategies, buying or
selling insurance, online shopping, and online games,
determining blood groups, and analysing political strategies.

REFERENCES

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 1. NCERT Mathematics – Textbook Class XII (Part – II)

2. Mathematics for Class XII – R S Aggarwal

3. Mathematics for Class XII – R D Sharma

4. Google Scholar Articles on Probability

5. Wikipedia

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