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Disaster Management Plans in View of Recent Earthquakes: Arun Bapat
Disaster Management Plans in View of Recent Earthquakes: Arun Bapat
Disaster Management Plans in View of Recent Earthquakes: Arun Bapat
The present decade could be called as magnitude (M > 7.5) earthquake. The from the magnitude 8.0 earthquake. Only
disaster management decade. There have probability of occurrence of such an tall structures (h > 17 m) have suffered
been a number of large mega geo events event is of the order of about 0.986 (refs heavy damage. Structures with one, two
such as Sumatran earthquake of magni- 1 and 2). In case such an earthquake or three floors did not suffer any damage
tude 9.3 in December 2004, and destruc- occurs, the damage would be almost or the damage was almost minimal. Dur-
tive earthquakes in India (Bhuj astronomical within the epicentral area. ing the Bhuj (Gujarat) earthquake, tall
earthquake of magnitude 7.8 on 26 Janu- Further, tall structures of more than 17 m buildings in Ahmedabad city located at a
ary 2001), Pakistan (Kashmir earthquake height, in the National Capital Region of distance of about 320 km from the epi-
of magnitude 7.9 on 8 October 2005) and Delhi could suffer heavy damage. centre have suffered heavy damage. Dur-
China (Sichuan earthquake of magnitude The Sumatran earthquake was perhaps ing the Kashmir (Pakistan) earthquake, a
8.0 on 12 May 2008). About half a mil- the most powerful earthquake. Some 10-storey building in Islamabad had to-
lion lives have been lost in these seismic post-seismic hind-casting exercises have tally collapsed. A recent example from
disasters. As each earthquake has a dif- led to new findings. The sea surface Guwahati is quite interesting. Bhutan had
ferent signature, each earthquake teaches temperature (SST) of the area above the experienced a magnitude 6.25 earthquake
something new. It is the duty of earth- epicentral region was higher by 3.0– on 21 September 2009, with epicentre at
quake researchers and disaster managers 5.0°C for about a week or so before the 27.3°N and 91.5°E. A tall building in
that the lessons learnt from these seismic occurrence of earthquake. The SST and Guwahati (located at a distance of about
contingencies should be scientifically also the land surface temperatures are 150 km from the epicentre) has tilted by
studied; analysed and significant infer- available almost on an hourly basis from about 4°–5°. Had the magnitude of the
ences and conclusions should be taken to various satellite pictures. This has shown earthquake been 7.0 or more the structure
the common man with a view of increas- that the temperatures of the potential epi- could have suffered heavily. Keeping in
ing the seismic safety of the society in central region rise. One day before the view these field observations, it would
general and human lives in particular. It occurrence of the Kashmir earthquake of be necessary to draw vulnerability map
is a fact that despite several laudable re- 8 October 2005, the temperatures in the of tall structures situated within 550 km
searches in the fields of earthquake and epicentral area were about 8.0–10.0°C from the probable epicentre in NW
disaster management, it has not been above the normal temperatures. Keeping Himalayas for locations like Delhi,
possible to save a single life during any this in view, watch could be kept on dif- Noida, Gurgaon, Ghaziabad, Jaipur,
earthquake (except one in China). The ferent locations in NW Himalayan re- Agra, etc. Incidentally, the Bureau of
hind-casting exercises of above earth- gion. It has been observed from the daily Indian Standards Seismic Code was re-
quakes have indicated a number of weather reports for the period 1 January vised after the Bhuj earthquake. But it
highly reliable seismic precursors. The 2009 till the time of writing (March does not have any revision to account for
situation appears to be moving in skew 2010) of India Meteorological Depart- the effect of Rayleigh waves on tall
directions. On one hand scientists have ment (IMD) that the maximum and structures located within the vulnerable
been coming forward with sufficient minimum temperatures of Shimla, Srina- distance from the epicentre.
degree of confidence about reliable seis- gar and Dehradun have been above It was widely reported that prior to the
mic precursors and on the other hand, the normal by 2.0–4.0°C on lower side and Wenchuan (Sichuan) earthquake of mag-
disaster management experts vehemently as high as 8.0–12.0°C on higher side. nitude 8.0 on 12 May 2008, in China a
say that earthquakes cannot be predicted. The Bhuj earthquake of 26 January large number of toads were leaving
The result is more concentration of 2001 in India and the Kashmir earth- ponds and roaming on nearby road. The
equipments, instruments, and remedial quake of 8 October 2005 have shown the abnormal animal behaviour (which can-
measures during the post-seismic period likely damaging effect of Rayleigh not be explained within the presently
by the disaster management experts. waves from large magnitude earthquake. established framework of science) should
Unfortunately, it could be observed that Bapat3 has discussed this effect observed be accepted as a reliable seismic precur-
the present disaster management plans during Gujarat earthquake. The Rayleigh sor. Whether a suitable explanation
almost do the work of clearing of debris waves which are long-period waves (pe- is available or not till it works, one
and corpses during the post-seismic peri- riod 12–18 s) from a large earthquake of should accept this precursor and use it to
ods. This has to be changed positively magnitude more than 7.5 have a special save lives of people. This has also been
and immediately. It is essential that new property. These waves adversely affect mentioned in the ancient Indian literature
policies have to be formulated. These tall structures, height more than 17 m, Brihatsamhita of Varahamihira. Recent
have to be based on the lessons learnt situated beyond a distance of 150 km and research in US has shown that the num-
from various earthquakes. less than 550 km from the epicentre. ber of charged particles in atmosphere
The NW Himalayan region comprising Such a phenomenon was observed for the increases several times than the normal4.
of conglomerate of Himachal and Utta- first time during the Mexican earthquake The excessive charged particles could
rakhand has been identified as the most of September 1985. Mexico city is be a likely reason for the abnormal ani-
vulnerable seismic region with large located at a distance of about 550 km mal behaviour. It is also reported that in