Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia

Vicerrectoría Académica y de Investigación

Syllabus of the Course Theory of Decisions
Code 212066

Activity Guide and Evaluation Rubric – Task 1 Pre Knowledge

1. Activity Description

Type of activity: Individual

Evaluation moment: Initial
Highest score of the activity: 25 points
The activity starts on: Monday, August The activity ends on: Sunday, September
23, 2021 5, 2021
With this activity, you are expected to achieve the following learning
outcomes:

1. Recognize the methods of solving decision problems in different environments, risk,

uncertainty and Markov.
The activity consists of:

In the Learning environment, consult the bibliographic reference Sharma, J. (2016).

Operations Research: Theory and Applications. (pp. 347-378), New Delhi: Laxmi
Publications Pvt Ltd, v. Sixth edition of the Unit 1.
Decision models under risks, to review the topic related to probabilities, graphical
solution of equations and operations with matrices.

The student in a first exercise must remember thematic of probabilities to identify the
conditions of the events that will later allow you to make decisions with the use of
different models applied in later units of the course.

In a second exercise they must understand from a graph of solutions that satisfy the
restrictions and conditions of the problem and their behavior according to events that
determine the game success of certain players conditioned by others that intervene in
the system.

In a third exercise we will remember elementary operations of matrices, such as

multiplication of vector by a matrix or matrices by matrices in order to facilitate the
development of finite or infinite state decision problems with application of Markov
labels.

1
Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event:

Suppose two faces of a die are painted red, three faces green, and one face blue. What
is the probability, at rolling the die four times, of getting,

1) The first three faces green and the last face red
2) Only the first three faces red
3) that in the first three throws blue is obtained?

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations:

Using the algebraic graphical method, determine the cut-off point and solution that
satisfies the following system of equations:

3𝑥 + 5𝑦 = 33
12𝑥 − 7𝑦 = 51

For values of 1 and 0 of the variable x in each of the equations. That is, replacing in
each equation first if x takes value of 1 and if it takes the value of zero to graph its
lines.

Exercise 3. Matrix operations:

The Markov chains use probabilities of previous states, from there that the matrix
multiplication is very important to solve this type of problems. Given the following
matrices of size (n * m) or (m * m) solve the product of them, (A * B)

𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟑
1. A= [𝟎. 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟒] B= [𝟎. 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟒]
𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟑

𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟔 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟏 𝟎. 𝟐
2. A=[𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟔] B= [𝟎. 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟒 𝟎. 𝟑]
𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟐 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟑 𝟎. 𝟓 𝟎. 𝟓

Finally, individually, evidence in a xls (Excel) format document the report to be

delivered, present it in the general forum of the course (Learning environment) to
demonstrate its development and deliver it in the Evaluation environment for its
qualification.

2
For the development of the activity consider that:

In the Initial Information Environment, you must: Consult and review the agenda of
the course.

In the Learning Environment, you must: Consult the reference proposed in the required
educational resources of Unit 1. Decision models under risks. Present in the general
forum of the course, the contributions and progress on development and solving the
problems raised above.

In the Evaluation environment, you must: Deliver the report individually according to
its specifications and availability scheduled in the Course Agenda.
Evidences of individual work:
The individual evidence to be submitted is:
Document in xls (Excel) format, entitled Solution of recognition problems, which must
contain the following information and presentation:

Cover page. Identifying the activity, the title, the author, the tutor, the course, the
institution, the school, the program and the year.

Content:

Exercise 1. Probabilities of a given event.

a. Answer to question 1 of the problem.

b. Answer to question 2 of the problem.
c. Answer to question 3 of the problem.

Exercise 2. Graphic solution of equations.

a. Request the system of equations for equalization to 0 and 1.

b. Graph the equations on the Cartesian plane.
c. Find the solution of the system of equations.

Exercise 3. Matrix operations.

a. Solve according to the matrix solution methods in Exercise 1.

b. Solve the matrix solution methods in Exercise 2.

Bibliography (with APA standard).

3
File Extension: xls (excel)
Identification: Task 1_Name of the student.
Evidences of collaborative work:
No collaborative evidence is required in this activity.

2. General Guidelines for the Development of Evidences to Submit

For Individual evidences, consider the following:

• You must present the progress of the activity in the general forum of the
course during the time allocated for the activity.

• Before delivering the requested product, you must check that it meets all the
requirements indicated in this activity guide.

Please keep in mind that all individual or collaborative written products must comply
with the spelling rules and presentation conditions defined in this activity guide.
Regarding the use of references, consider that the product of this activity must comply
with APA style.
In any case, make sure you comply with the rules and avoid academic plagiarism. You
can review your written products using the Turnitin tool found in the virtual campus.

Under the Academic Code of Conduct, the actions that infringe the academic order,
among others, are the following: paragraph e) Plagiarism is to present as your own
work all or part of a written report, task or document of invention carried out by
another person. It also implies the use of citations or lack of references, or it includes
citations where there is no match between these and the reference and paragraph f)
To reproduce, or copy for profit, educational resources or results of research products,
which have rights reserved for the University. (Acuerdo 029 - 13 de diciembre de
2013, artículo 99)

The academic penalties students will face are:

a) In case of academic fraud demonstrated in the academic work or evaluation, the
score obtained will be zero (0.0) without any disciplinary measures being derived.
b) In case of proven plagiarism in academic work of any nature, the score obtained
will be zero (0.0), without any disciplinary measures being derived.

4
3. Evaluation Rubric Template

Activity type: Individual

Time of assessment: Initial
The maximum possible score is 25 points
High level: The student develops and presents all the
First evaluation activities proposed in the general forum of the course.
criterion: If your work is at this level you can get between 4
points and 5 points
Use the general
forum of the course Medium Level: The student develops and presents some
to develop and activities proposed in the general forum of the course.
present Task 1. If your work is at this level you can get between 2
points and 3 points
This criterion
represents 5 points Low level: The student does not develop and present the
out of the total 25 activities proposed in the general forum of the course.
points of the If your work is at this level you can get between 0
activity. points and 1 point
High level: The student correctly applies the solution
Second evaluation methods according to the probability theory in the
criterion: development and solution of the problem posed, correctly
determining all the requested aspects.
Recognizes the If your work is at this level you can get between 4
theories of points and 5 points
probability,
combinations, and Medium Level: The student applies some solution
permutations that methods according to the probability theory in the
lead you to solve a development and solution of the problem posed, partially
problem as part of determining the requested aspects.
the course If your work is at this level you can get between 2
preservers. points and 3 points

This criterion Low level: The student does not correctly apply any of
represents 5 points the solution methods in the development and solution of
out of the total 25 the probability problem.
points of the If your work is at this level you can get between 0
activity. points and 1 point.

5
Third evaluation High level: The student correctly analyzes the graphical
criterion: method in the development and solution of the equation
problem, correctly determining all the requested aspects.
Recognizes the If your work is at this level you can get between 4
approach and solution points and 5 points
of a system of
equations according Medium Level: The student partially analyzes the graphic
to the conditions set method in the development and solution of the equation
as part of the problem, partially determining the requested aspects.
preschool activity of If your work is at this level you can get between 2
the course. points and 3 points

This criterion Low level: The student does not apply the graphical
represents 5 points method in the development and solution of the problem
out of the total 25 of equations.
points of the If your work is at this level you can get between 0
activity. points and 1 point.
Fourth evaluation High level: The student correctly applies the matrix
criteria: solution methods, correctly determining all the requested
aspects.
Recognizes the If your work is at this level you can get between 4
methods of solution in points and 5 points
matrices, according to
multiplication vector Medium Level: The student partially applies the matrix
- matrix and matrix as solution methods, determining some of the requested
part of the Pre aspects.
Knowledge of the If your work is at this level you can get between 2
course. points and 3 points

This criterion Low level: The student does not apply the matrix solution
represents 5 points methods in the development and solution of the problem.
out of the total 25 If your work is at this level you can get between 0
points of the points and 1 point
activity.

6
 High level: The student presents the report with the
development and correct solution of the problems posed,
with excellent writing, spelling, citations and bibliographic
references in accordance with the APA standard in its
content.
Fifth evaluation If your work is at this level you can get between 4
criterion: points and 5 points

Report Solving Medium Level: The student presents the report with the
Probability, Equation, development and partial solution of the problems posed,
and Matrix Problems. with writing, spelling, citations and / or bibliographic
references in accordance with the APA standard in its
This criterion content.
represents 5 points If your work is at this level you can get between 2
out of the total 25
points and 3 points
points of the
activity.
Low level: The student does not present the report with
the development and solution of the problems posed.
If your work is at this level you can get between 0
points and 1 point.