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Question: your homework
Construction
Company is building a luxury
lakefront home in the Finger Lakes region of Ne...
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a. In order to find the critical path , we are requiredto first

calculate expected time for each activity by using
the formula
(a+4*m+b)/6 weighted mean of optimistic (a), most likely (m) and
pessimistic (b) times. The
following table gives the expected time
for actvities:

Activity Expected duration

A 8

B 7

C 12

D 5

E 10

F 9

G 15

H 7

a. Critical path is the longest path an the network diagram from

Start to Finish which is:

Start --A---C----E----G---H---Finish having maximum duration =

52 (8+12+10+15+7)

b. Expected duration of completion of project = 52 weeks

c. Probability of project being completed in 44 weeks is less

than .5 as mean time mentioned above is 52
weeks. In order to
calculate probability we first find out the standard deviation(sd)
of the critical path which
is combined sd of critical activities
namely A, C, E, G and H = Sqrt ( 16/9 + 4 + 4 + 25/9 + 16/9 ) =
SQRT(129/9) = 3.79 approx.

Standard deviation of activity = (b-a)/6 and Variance is square

of standard deviation, variance of project
duration is sum of
variances of critical activities on the critical path.

Project duration follows normal distribution with mean 52 weeks

and standard deviation 3.79

Therefore Probability that project get completed in 44 weeks =

Probability Z <= z1 where Z is standard
normal variable and z1 =
(44-52)/3.79 = -2.11 From the Standard Normal table it is .5 -
.4826 = .0174
To conclude , chances of project getting completed within 44
weeks is less than 18%

d. For probability of project taking more than 3 months or 57

weeks, the value of Z is (57-52)/3.79 = 1.32
approx

and Probability Z taking more than 1.32 from the table is =.5 -
.4066 = .0934

Therefore chances that project takes more than 57 weeks is less

than 10% more precisely 9.34%

e. The construction company can tell that the expected time to

finish the project is 52 weeks with sd of 3.79
weeks

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Davison Construction Company is building a luxury lakefront home in the Finger Lakes region of New
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Davison Construction Company is building a luxury lakefront home in the Finger Lakes region of New
York. Coordination of the architect and subcontractors will require a major effort to meet the 44-week
(approximately 10-month) completion date requested by the owner. The Davison project manager
prepared the following project network: 14. Start Finish
See answer
 Problem 9-14 (Algorithmic) Davison Construction Company is
building a luxury lakefront home in the
Finger Lakes region of New
York. Coordination of the architect and subcontractors will require
a major
effort to meet the 44-week (approximately 10-month)
completion date requested by the owner. The
Davison project manager
prepared the following project network:
See answer

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