10631585 – Forecasting Methods & Applications

An-Najah National University, Department of Industrial Engineering

Fall 2021/2022
Instructor:
Dr. Yahya Saleh Salahat
Industrial Engineering Department
Faculty of Engineering &IT
Office No. 2600 (so-far), Engineering Building, 2nd Floor)
Telephone: +970 (9) 2345113, Ext. 2520
E-mail: ysaleh@najah.edu
Office Hours: Will be posted on my office door or by appointment via email.
Course Schedule: Monday and Wednesday, (9:30-11:00 AM).
Class Room: 111060 (Engineering Building, 1st Floor).
Course Summary
This course covers topics in time series analysis and some statistical techniques on forecasting. More
specifically, basic quantitative methods of forecasting will be introduced. Exploratory, time series and
qualitative forecasting methods will be discussed. In this respect time series decomposition,
exponential smoothing, regression and Box-Jenkins models will be covered. Judgmental forecasting
methods will also be briefly mentioned. Applications in various fields will be introduced and
engineering applications will be emphasized.
Prerequisites: Production Planning & Inventory Control (10631431)

Course Objectives
 Introducing IE students to many approaches of analyzing time series data where analysis and
research of time series are prevalent.
 Equipping IE students with adequate statistical tools and knowledge to make precise decisions,
based on forecasts obtained from the statistical analysis of historical data.

Intended Learning Outcomes (ILOs) and their relationships to IE Program Outcomes

At the end of this course, students will be able to:
1. Formulate real life problems using regression and forecasting models. (30%)
2. Collect appropriate data to estimate the models and understand which data are useful in
solving the problem. (25%)
3. Use statistical software to estimate the models from real data. (25%)
4. Draw conclusions from the estimated models to solve the real life problems. (20%)

Note: Outcomes 1,2 and 4 will be assessed by the project.

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Course Textbooks
 Makridakis, S. Wheelwright S.C. and Hyndman R.J. Forecasting Methods and Applications,
1998, 3rd Ed. John Wiley.
 Hyndman, R, Athanasopoulos, G. Forecasting: Principles and Practice. 2 nd Edition, 2018.
Supplemental Texts
 Mills, T. Applied Time Series Analysis: A Practical Guide to Modeling and Forecasting. 2019.
Academic Press.
 Nikolopoulos, K., Thomakos, D. Forecasting with Theta Method: Theory and Applications. 2019,
John Wiley and Sons.
 Box, J., Jenkins, G, Reinsel, G, Jung, G. Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. 5 th Edition,
2016, John Wiley and Sons.

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 Grading
All exams are written, closed-book-and-notes exam covering the all the material covered in class up
to that date.
Assessment Criteria Percent (%)
Midterm Exam 25 %
Paper Presentation (7%) and Summary Report (8%) 15%
Project: Presentation (10%) and Report (10%) 20%
Final Exam (TBD) 40 %

Course Format: Class will be a mix of lectures, in-class exercises, using Minitab software, case
discussions and presentations.

Software: Minitab 19.

Project: Individual or group projects will be assigned in one of the following fields (in the local or in
the regional or global contexts) chosen by the student(s):

 New product demand forecasting

 Forecasting in financial markets
 forecasting of carbon-trade prices
 Forecasting of demand of electric or hybrid cars
 Energy demand forecasting.
 Covdi-19 –related forecasting (prevalence of virus, demand on vaccines, death rate,
vaccination rate, hospitalization rate)
 Weather forecasting
 Electricity consumption forecasting
 Water consumption forecasting
 Any other field (contest of the instructor)

Note: Some introductory reading material will be given in each topic. However the main literature
search, data collection (or finding) and data analysis, a written report and a presentati0n are the
requirements of the project

Course Conduct Policy

1. All students and the instructor of the course are expected to

 Respect each other.

 Help each other in creating a suitable environment for learning.
 Help each other to have fair assessment of the work done.

2. Attendance is mandatory and students who will miss a class should inform the instructor in advance.
Class participation is required and students may need to prepare before the class.

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3. Academic misconduct is not tolerated, and violations will be dispatched in accordance with the
University policy.
4. All exams will be in class, closed books and notes. In each written exam, you will be asked to sign the
following statement:

Academic integrity is expected of all students of An-Najah National University at all times, whether
in the presence or absence of members of the faculty. Understanding this, I declare that I shall not
give, use or receive unauthorized aid in the examination.
5.   Discussion of the course material and working in groups are effective ways of learning.  Homework

problems will be suggested, collected and occasionally will be graded. However, this does not mean
that you can copy the homework from one of your colleagues. You can discuss the solution of a
problem with your friends, but you should be alone, without any written solution in front of you, when
you actually solve the problem. It is extremely important to understand the value of this exercise in
the process of learning.
6. In the unlikely event the instructor does not show up at the beginning of the class, please wait for 10
minutes before you decide to leave.
7. Class attendance and participation is of a great value as it brings different viewpoints that enhance
everyone’s knowledge in the class. Students are highly encouraged to attend all class sessions in order
to get the most benefit from their time spent in traveling to the university, the expenses of tuition fees
and many other activities given up to obtain the master degree. To this end, attendance will be taken
at the end of each session.
8. Correct English spelling, syntax and grammar are expected from all students in exams and any other
submitted printed or hand-written materials.

Course Outline(*)

WEEK DATE TOPIC

1 Mon. 6/9/2021 Syllabus, Introduction and forecasting perspective
Thurs. 9/9/2021
2-3 Mon. 13/9/2021 Basic forecasting tools + Paper and Project Groups Formation
Thurs. 16/9/2021
4 Mon.20/9/2021 Times series decomposition
Thurs. 23/9/2021
6 Mon. 27/9/2021 Exponential smoothing
Thurs. 30/9/2021
7 Mon. 4/10/2021 Simple regression
Thurs. 7/10/2021
8 Mon. 11/10/2021 Multiple regression + Midterm Exam (25%) (Thursday 14/10/2021 in
Thurs. 14/10/2021 class)
9 Mon. 18/10/2021 Box Jenkins Methods and ARIMA Models
Thurs. 21/10/2021
10 Mon. 25/10/2021 Paper Presentations and Summary Reports (15%)
Thurs. 28/10/2021

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11 Mon. 1/11/2021 Box Jenkins Methods and ARIMA Models
Thurs. 4/11/2021
12 Mon. 8/11/2021 Advanced Forecasting Models
Thurs. 11/11/2021

13 Mon. 15/11/2021 Forecasting the Long Term

Thurs. 18/11/2021
14 Mon. 22/11/2021 Judgmental forecasting
Thurs. 25/11/2021 Forecasting in Practice
15 Mon. 29/11/2021 Project Presentations and Reports Submission (20%)
Thurs. 2/12/2021
16 TBD Final Exam (Comprehensive) (40%)
(*):This is a tentative outline and the instructor reserves the right to modify the elements of the
outline as he sees necessary.