Population and associated issues

Introduction
India, like many other countries, has come a long way from the initial days of
evolution under conditions of high mortality due to famines, accidents, illness,
infections and war, when relatively high levels of fertility was essential for species
survival. In the world of seven billion people, India along with China already occupies
a place in the Billionaire club and is likely to overtake China by 2025.

Population Growth
As per UN estimates, World population grew at annual rate of 1.23 per cent
during 2011-2020 with developing countries like India registering a higher growth rate.
The population of developed countries like Japan & USA grew at a slower pace with
Russia even witnessing a decline in population. China registered a much lower growth
rate. It is now estimated that India will overtake china as the most populous country
by 2025-30 despite the fact that the growth rate has slowed down even in case of
India. Decadal growth rate in case of India was 17.7 % compared to 21.5 % in the
previous decade.

Demographic Transition:
India, at present, is at stage three of the four stage model of demographic
transition.

Stage 1: less developed countries, high birth rate, high number of deaths due to
preventable causes, stable population
Stage 2: Death rates fall due to improved public health but high fertility due to limited
access to health and contraceptive services, spurt in population

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

Stage 3: Birth rate also falls, population continues to grow due to large no. of people
in reproductive age group
Stage 4: Stable population, low birth & death rates, high social & economic
development

Population Structure
Population Pyramids represent complex changes in age structure of the
population. In developed countries, the shape is almost cylindrical instead of a pyramid
because of the high life expectancy, low fertility and relatively low population in
reproductive age group. In these countries, advantages of stable population are
challenged by higher dependency ratio since the working age population is less.
In contrast to the above, population of most of the developing countries including
India consists of large proportions of children and persons in reproductive age group.
For now and the near future , population projections for India augur well since it will
have a large segment of population in the working age group , with considerably
decreased dependency ratio putting it in a position to reap demographic dividend.

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

Sex wise composition:

After an all-time low sex ratio (No. of females per thousand males) of 927 in
1991, the sex ratio of India has shown improvement during last two decades. Sex
ratio, as per the 2011 census is 943 which is largely comparable to the best
performance (941 in 1961) in last fifty years. Several steps, including gender equality
awareness campaigns were taken by the government to arrest the trend of declining
sex ratio.
As per results of Census 2011, persons aged 0-6 years accounted for about
13.6 % of total population with the proportion in case of males being 13.8 % and
females being 13.2 %. Consequently, the sex ratio in the age group 0-6 years was
about 919 (much lower than the overall national average of 943. Preferences of male
child is still prevalent in a large part of the society.

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

State-wise comparison with all India Averages:- As per census 2011, the lowest
sex ratio among the States has been recorded in Haryana (877), Jammu & Kashmir
(883) and Sikkim (889). Among the UTs the lowest sex ratio has been recorded in
Daman & Diu (618), Dadra & Nagar Haveli (775) and Chandigarh (818). Comparatively,
prosperous states of Haryana and Punjab had sex ratio less than 850 in case of age
group 0-6 years.

Increase/decrease in sex ratio at state level:- Among the major States, Bihar, Jammu
Kashmir and Gujarat have experienced a fall in the sex ratio. The decline ranged
from 2 points in Gujarat to 9 points in Jammu & Kashmir. Other smaller Union
Territories showing steep decline are Dadra & Nagar Haveli (37 points) and Daman
and Diu (92 points). Perceptible increase has been observed in the major States
such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh,
Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Punjab and all the
States located in the North East. It is interesting to note that States having historically
low sex ratio such as Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Chandigarh have shown appreciable
increase in the sex ratio in Census 2011 with Chandigarh & Delhi showing an
improvement of more than 40 points compared to 2001. Majority of the States
identified as gender critical for special attention and intervention as part of the Census
2011 have shown increasing trend in the sex ratio as per the provisional results.

Some reasons commonly forwarded (Registrar General of India, 2011) for declining
sex ratio are:

• Sex determination before birth and eliminating female foetuses (Female births);
• Killing of girl children (Female infanticide);
• Neglect of girl children—denial of adequate nutrition and access to health;
• Facilities and imposition of household chores at a tender age;
• In spite of declining infant mortality rates, the relative gap between males and
females has been increasing
• High maternal mortality;

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

Consequences of population growth

Environmental and ecological consequences
• In many developing countries continued population growth has resulted in pressure
on land, fragmentation of land holding, collapsing fisheries, shrinking forests, rising
temperatures, loss of plant and animal species.
• Rapid population growth, developmental activities either to meet the growing
population or the growing needs of the population as well as changing lifestyles
and consumption patterns pose major challenge to preservation and promotion of
ecological balance.
• Severe pressure on the forests due to both the rate of resource use and the
nature of use. The per capita forest biomass in the country is only about 6 tons
as against the global average of 82 tons.
• Conversion of habitat to some other land use such as agriculture, urban
development. Some 70-80% of fresh water marshes and lakes in the Gangetic
flood plains has been lost in the last 50 years.
• Increase in agricultural area, high use of chemical fertilizers pesticides and
weedicides for the fulfilling food demand.
• Encroachment on habitat for rail and road construction thereby fragmenting the
Habitat. increase in commercial activities such as mining and unsustainable
resource extraction.
• Degradation of coastal and other aquatic ecosystems from domestic sewage,
pesticides, fertilizers and industrial effluents.
• Diversion of water for domestic, industrial and agricultural uses leading to increased
river pollution and decrease in self-cleaning properties of rivers.
• Increasing water requirement leading to tapping deeper aquifers which have high
content of arsenic or fluoride resulting health problems.
• Disturbance from increased recreational activity and tourism causing pollution of
natural ecosystems with wastes left behind by people.

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

Urbanization
The rapid growth of urban population also poses some serious challenges.
Urban population growth has outpaced the development of basic minimum services;
housing, water supply, sewerage and solid waste disposal are far from adequate;
increasing waste generation at home, offices and industries, coupled with poor waste
disposal facilities result in rapid environmental deterioration. Increasing automobiles
add to air pollution. All these have adverse effect on ecology and health. Poverty
persists in urban and peri-urban areas; awareness about the glaring inequities in
close urban setting may lead to social unrest.

Rural population and their development

Though poverty has declined over the last three decades, the number of rural
poor has in fact increased due to the population growth. Poor tend to have larger
families which puts enormous burden on their meagre resources, and prevent them
from breaking out of the shackles of poverty. In States like Tamil Nadu where
replacement level of fertility has been attained, population growth rates are much
lower than in many other States; but the population density is high and so there is
a pressure on land.

Water supply
In many parts of developed and developing world, water demand substantially
exceeds sustainable water supply. In India, water withdrawal is estimated to be twice
the rate of aquifer recharge; as a result water tables are falling by one to three
meters every year; tapping deeper aquifers have resulted in larger population groups
being exposed to newer health hazards such as high fluoride or arsenic content in
drinking water. At the other end of the spectrum, excessive use of water has led to
water logging and increasing salinity in some parts of the country. Eventually, both
lack of water and water logging could have adverse impact on India's food production.

Food security:
It is a matter of concern that while the cereal production has been growing
steadily at a rate higher than the population growth rates, the coarse grain and pulse

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

production has not shown a similar increase. Consequently there has been a reduction
in the per capita availability of and coarse grains.

Economic Implications:
The early Malthusian view was that population growth is likely to impede
economic growth because it will put pressure on the available resources, result in
reduction in per capita income and resources; this, in turn, will result in deterioration
in quality of life. Contrary to the Malthusian predictions, several of the East Asian
countries have been able to achieve economic prosperity and improvement in quality
of life inspite of population growth. This has been attributed to the increase in
productivity due to development and utilisation of innovative technologies by the young
educated population who formed the majority of the growing population. These
countries have been able to exploit the dynamics of demographic transition to achieve
economic growth by using the human resources as the engine driving the economic
development; improved employment with adequate emoluments has promoted saving
and investment which in turn stimulated economic growth.
However, not all countries, which have undergone demographic transition, have
been able to transform their economies. Sri Lanka in South Asia underwent
demographic transition at the same time as South East Asian countries but has not
achieved the economic transition. It is now realized that population growth or
demographic transition can have favourable impact on economic growth only when
there are optimal interventions aimed at human resource development (HRD) and
appropriate utilisation of available human resources. For India the current phase of
demographic transition with low dependency ratio and high working age group
population, represents both a challenge and an opportunity. The challenge is to
develop these human resources through appropriate education and skill development
and utilise them fully by giving them appropriate jobs with adequate emoluments; if
this challenge is met through well planned schemes for HRD and employment
generation which are implemented effectively, there will be improved national
productivity and personal savings rates; appropriate investment of these savings will
help the country to achieve the economic transition from low economic growth - low
per capita income to high economic growth - high per capita income.

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

Migration
Given the combination of high population growth, low literacy and lack of
employment opportunities in the poorly performing States, there may be increasing
rural to urban migration as well as interstate migration especially of unskilled workers.
Such migration may in the short run assist the migrants in overcoming economic
problems associated with unemployment. However, the migrant workers and their
families may face problems in securing shelter, education and health care.

Education
Growing numbers have made it harder to improve schooling. India has had a poor
outcome even with the low educational expenditures it manages. Only just over half
the population completes more than four years of education, and the average quality
of education is low.

Rise in Unemployment
When a country becomes overpopulated, it gives rise to unemployment as there are
fewer jobs to support a large number of people. The rise in unemployment gives rise
to crime, such as theft, as people want to feed their families and provide them basic
amenities of life.

High Cost of Living

As the difference between demand and supply continues to expand due to
overpopulation, it raises the prices of various essential commodities, including food,
shelter, and healthcare. This means that people have to pay more to survive and
feed their families.

Pandemics and Epidemics

Poverty is linked to many environmental and social reasons, including overcrowded
and unhygienic living conditions, malnutrition and inaccessible, inadequate, or non-
existent health care, for which the poor are more likely to be exposed to infectious
diseases. Further, high densities of population increase the chance of the emergence
of new pandemics and epidemics.

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

Solutions
Better Education
One of the first measures is to implement policies reflecting social change. Educating
the masses helps them understand the need to have one or two children at the most.

Education for Girl Child

Entrenched gender norms and child marriage further disrupt their access to education.
The girl who receives less education is more likely to have children early and
vulnerable to exploitation.

Making People Aware of Family Planning

As the population of this world is growing at a rapid pace, raising awareness among
people regarding family planning and letting them know about serious after-effects of
overpopulation can help curb population growth. One of the best ways is to let them
know about various safe sex techniques and contraceptive methods available to avoid
any unwanted pregnancy.

Tax Benefits or Concessions

The government of various countries might have to come up with various policies
related to tax exemptions to curb overpopulation. One of them might be to waive a
certain part of income tax or lowering rates of income tax for those married couples
who have single or two children. As we humans are more inclined towards money,
this may produce some positive results.

Knowledge of Sex Education

Imparting sex education to young kids at the elementary level should be a must.
Most parents feel shy in discussing such things with their kids that results in their
children going out and look out for such information on the internet or discuss it with
their peers. Mostly, the information is incomplete, which results in sexually active
teenagers unaware of contraceptives and embarrassed to seek information about the
same. It is, therefore, important for parents and teachers to shed their old inhibitions
and make their kids or students aware of solid sex education.

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

Social Marketing
Social marketing has already been started by some societies to educate the public
on overpopulation effects. The intervention can be made widespread at a low cost.
A variety of print materials (flyers, brochures, fact sheets, stickers) can be distributed
in places such as at local places of worship, sporting events, local food markets,
schools and at car parks.

Actions required on the national level

• In high fertility developing countries, governments should …
• Generously fund family planning programs
• Make modern contraception legal, free and available everywhere, even in remote
areas
• Improve health care to reduce infant and child mortality
• Restrict child marriage and raise the legal age of marriage (minimum 18 years)
• Empower women, assuring equal rights, treatment and opportunities for both
genders Provide information and access to reproductive health care, including all
types of low cost, safe, effective contraception
• Make sterilization free, for men and women, or at least covered under all
healthcare plans Legalize abortion without restrictions or social stigma
• Integrate family planning and safe motherhood programs into primary health care
systems Make population and environmental issues and sex education part of the
basic educational curriculum Disincentivize third and further children non-coercively,
by limiting government support to the first two children Create a national population
policy built around an optimal population size, and work to achieve it.

Possible benefits of an increasing population are listed below:

• If the population is above the optimum size, the country will be able to make
better use of its resources.
• The size of markets will increase. This should enable firms to take greater
advantage of economies of scale.

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas

Population and associated issues

• There may be an increase in factor mobility if the rise has resulted from an
increase in the birth rate or immigration. Expanding industries can recruit new
workers to the labour force. These people are likely to be familiar with new
ideas and methods. If this is the case, firms’ training costs will be reduced.
• Extra demand will be generated. This is likely to stimulate investment and this
may lead to introduction of new technology.

If the fertility rate of a nation drops below the replacement rate, it means its
population is ageing faster than the young ones reaching the age where they can
join the active workforce. Once fertility decline is underway, it’s hard to flip it back.
India enjoys one of the youngest global population with average national age at
around 29 years, while 41 percent of our population is under 18 years of age,
according to the last census. This means that most Indians have a majority of their
working years ahead of them. This population can contribute to nation-building and
economy, if equipped with the right skills, training and jobs.

Join Telegram : https://t.me/AnsWritingUPSC 09894998421 ©Prayaas