Professional Documents
Culture Documents
JLL Research 1q21 Metro Manila Pmo en
JLL Research 1q21 Metro Manila Pmo en
Notes:
1
Projections by the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) – Apr 2021
2 Net FDI projections by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) – Mar 2021
3
Projections by Commission on Population and Development (POPCOM) using geometric change, based on updated mid -year population projections of the
Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) – Oct 2019
4 Calculations by IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP) based on updated revenue figures – Jan 2021
5 Asian Development Bank. Asian Development Outlook (ADO) – Apr 2021
6
Projections by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas – Mar 2021
7,9, 11
Oxford Economics: Philippine Economic Forecast – Apr 2021
8 With targets unlikely to be met in the near future, Department of Tourism (DOT) will revise its projections in the National T ourism Development Plan (NTDP)
10
Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) projection is based on industry’s weak tax yield in Jan 2021.
Sources:
Asian Development Bank (ADB); Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA); Bangko Sentralng Pilipinas (BSP); Commission on Population and Development (POPCOM); IBPAP;
Department of Tourism (DOT); Oxford Economics; BIR
CONTACT US FOR OUR MAPIT
CAPABILITIES AND SERVICES
© 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Office
✓ Outsourcing and offshoring (O&O) transactions drove lease demand, up by 28.3% q-o-q; majority of leases were renewals.
✓ Overall vacancy breached double-digit territory at 14.7% from 11.0% in 4Q20 and in 7.4% 1Q20 as sizeable move outs encountered
from POGOs and O&Os.
Residential
Highlights
✓ Persistent reopening of midscale units weakened overall sales performance of RFO (net take-up of -672 units from 1,900 in 4Q20
and 269 in 1Q20) and pre-selling (-8 in 1Q21, from 111 in 4Q20 and 42 in 1Q20) markets.
✓ Lease transfers dictated the activities, but in upscale to luxury midscale segments. The general market remained challenged due to
higher number of vacant units in lower segments.
Retail
✓ Vacancy surged by 235 bps q-o-q and 371 bps y-o-y in 1Q21 as the number of store closures and pull-outs continue to surge.
✓ As some mall operators continue to cut rents to mitigate tenant moveouts and draw new tenants.
Hospitality
✓ Continued influx of repatriated overseas Filipinos (OFs) drove the demand, but at a marginal level.
✓ Average room rate declined by 18.7% q-o-q and 36.0% y-oy as most developments keep experiencing occupancy challenges.
PARAÑAQUE
CITY Bonifacio Global City Alabang and Madrigal
SM Mall of Asia
McKinley Hill Business Park
Complex Aseana City
McKinley West Filinvest City
Newport City Parañaque Others
Arca South South Park District
Pasay Others
Taguig Others Muntinlupa Others
Note:
JLL Research and Consultancy similarly includes other areas in Metro Manila apart from the aforementioned districts.
1,200,000
Existing Supply (as of 1Q21): 9.8 million sqm
Future Supply (2021E-2024E): 1.6 million sqm
1,000,000
Makati City
Mandaluyong City
800,000
Manila City
Muntinlupa City
GLA (sqm)
Paranaque City
600,000
Pasay City
Pasig City
Quezon City
400,000 Taguig City
Note:
Others
Average Annual Supply (Existing) Covers Prime and Grade
A office developments.
200,000 Average Annual Supply (Future)
Sources:
The upcoming supply (294,500 sqm) for 1Q21 that got deferred.
9.8 M 1.6 M
Pasay City
7.3%
Pasig City
16.3%
EXISTING GLA – SQM FUTURE GLA – SQM
(as of 1Q21) (2021E-2024E)
Pasig City Quezon City Note:
Sources:
Makati City
Quezon City JLL Office Leasing
15.6%
21.1% Advisory; JLL Research
& Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
owners
MANILA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
9.3% 20.3% 19.8%
MANDALUYONG CITY
Notes:
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
32.8% 19.8% 5.5% (1) Covers Prime and
Grade A office
developments.
250,000
200,000
Notes:
Pre-committedSpace
Pre-committed Remaining
RemainingSpace
Space
Space
18% 18%
10%
Notes:
1% (1) Covers
Prime and Grade A
office developments.
20% (2) Based on lease
transaction data from
1Q21 vs. 4Q20 47% 1Q21 vs. 1Q20 52% 52%
JLL Office Leasing
52% Advisory.
Sources:
q-o-q y-o-y Monthly Rent: PHP 550-1,000 per sqm across the handover
conditions: bare shell,
Growth q-o-q y-o-y
-3.0% -5.2% Growth
warm shell, as is, and
partially fitted.
-0.7% -4.9%
(3) Figures in
percentages refer to
PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY growth rates across all
existing developments.
Monthly Rent: PHP 900-1,750per sqm Monthly Rent: PHP 800-1,800 per sqm
Sources:
q-o-q y-o-y q-o-q y-o-y
Growth Growth
-0.4% -1.0% -0.4% -0.4% JLL Office Leasing
Advisory; JLL Research
& Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
owners
PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY
Monthly Rent: PHP 1,200-1,500per sqm Monthly Rent: PHP 600-980 per sqm
q-o-q y-o-y q-o-q y-o-y
Growth Growth
-2.2% -6.4% -0.6% -1.4%
PASIG CITY
Capital Value:
PHP 120,000 – 329,300 per sqm Notes:
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth (1) Covers Prime
-2.4% -5.5% and Grade A
office developments.
40,000
Manila City
20,000 Muntinlupa City
Parañaque City
Pasay City
15,000 Pasig City
Quezon City Note:
Taguig City
10,000 Covers midscale to
Others luxury developments.
Annual Average Supply (Existing)
Sources:
5,000 Annual Average Supply (Future)
JLL Research &
Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
0 owners
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
The initial supply projection for 1Q21 was around 6,000 units.
Actual completions reached 7,300 units.
CONTACT US FOR OUR MAPIT
CAPABILITIES AND SERVICES
© 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Residential Market Share
Quezon City continued to dominate existing market share at 21.7%, reflecting its stance as the most populated city
in the metro. Makati City (17.8%) and Taguig City (12.9%) follow, which house primary business districts. Pasay City
is seen to take the lead in the next three years with 18.9% of pipeline share due to high-density multi-tower
developments, followed by Quezon City with 17.4%.
Muntinlupa City
Others Manila City 3.0%
Muntinlupa City
2.3% 4.6%
3.0%
Parañaque City
5.8% Others Pasay City
Quezon City
Pasay City 5.3% 18.9%
21.7%
6.5% Makati City
8.1%
96,300
Mandaluyong City
9.4%
423,200 Mandaluyong City
9.0% Quezon City
EXISTING UNITS Makati City UPCOMING UNITS 17.4%
Pasig City (as of 1Q21) (2021E-2024E) Note:
17.8%
10.3% Covers midscale to
luxury developments.
Pasig City
10.1% Sources:
Manila City
Taguig City Taguig City
10.3% JLL Research &
Parañaque City Consultancy; various
12.9% 12.0%
11.5% developers, brokers, or
owners
MANILA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
12.0% 11.6% 0.6%
MANDALUYONG CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
4.8% 3.9% 3.9%
MAKATI CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 PASIG CITY Notes:
9.2% 8.9% 5.0% 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
(1) Based on a market
8.3% 8.2% 3.5% basket of RFO semi-
furnished studio
to 2BR units in midscale
to luxury segments, as
of 1Q21.
PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY
(2) Figures in
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 percentages refer to
8.4% 7.5% 3.0% 8.7% 7.8% 6.0% vacancy rates.
Sources:
QUEZON CITY
YTD Net Take-up: -90 units
MANILA CITY 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 Notes:
YTD Net Take-up: -43 units 93.1% 94.7% 94.2% (1) Based on a market
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 basket of RFO semi-
98.0% 100.0% 78.9% MANDALUYONG CITY furnished studio
to 2BR units in midscale to
YTD Net Take-up: -98 units luxury segments, as of
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21.
QUEZON CITY
Selling Price:
PHP 88,000 – 269,100 per sqm
MANILA CITY
q-o-q y-o-y
Selling Price: Growth Notes:
PHP 60,800– 232,600 per sqm -1.2% -1.1%
(1) Based on a market
q-o-q y-o-y MANDALUYONG CITY basket of RFO semi-
Growth furnished studio to 2BR
-1.6% -9.9% Selling Price: units in midscale to
PHP 146,000 – 289,200 per sqm luxury segments, as of
1Q21.
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth (2) Figures (in PHP) refer
-1.5% 3.6% to average asking
MAKATI CITY selling prices.
Selling Price: PASIG CITY
(3) Percentages refer to
PHP 142,700 – 457,000per sqm Selling Price: selling price growth on
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 118,000 – 370,180 per sqm quarter-on-quarter and
Growth q-o-q y-o-y year-on-year bases.
-1.5% -5.9% Growth
-1.3% 3.6% (4) Stock addition from
upper midscale to
PASAY CITY upscale developments
Selling Price: TAGUIG CITY in Mandaluyong City, Pa
PHP 186,900 – 383,500 per sqm Selling Price: ranaque City, Pasay
City, and Pasig City
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 151,200 – 474,500 per sqm pulled up over-all y-o-y
Growth q-o-q y-o-y weighted selling prices.
-1.4% 3.3% Growth
-1.2% -5.5% Sources:
PARAÑAQUE CITY JLL Research &
Selling Price: MUNTINLUPA CITY Consultancy; various
PHP 98,500 – 212,600 per sqm Selling Price: developers, brokers, or
owners
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 155,600 – 286,900 per sqm
Growth q-o-q y-o-y
-1.6% 3.9% Growth
0.5% -3.1%
CONTACT US FOR OUR MAPIT
CAPABILITIES AND SERVICES
© 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Residential Sales | Future Projects
Similar to the RFO market, the pre-selling market fell to negative territory as total net take-up registered -8 units in 1Q21, from
111 units in 4Q20 and 42 units in 1Q20. Continued unit re-openings in the midscale pre-selling market pulled down the
overall performance – including net sales and cumulative sales rate.
QUEZON CITY
MANILA CITY
YTD Net Take-up: 31 units
YTD Net Take-up: -4 units
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
91.8% 94.2% 99.8%
72.0% 78.9% 99.9% Notes:
QUEZON CITY
Selling Price:
PHP 94,000 – 305,900 per sqm
MANILA CITY q-o-q y-o-y
Selling Price: Growth
-0.1% -5.0% Notes:
PHP 97,100– 252,000 per sqm
q-o-q y-o-y MANDALUYONG CITY (1) Based on a market
Growth basket of pipeline semi-
-1.9% 3.9% Selling Price: furnished studio to 2BR
PHP 129,000 – 294,000 per sqm units in midscale to
luxury segments, slated
q-o-q y-o-y to complete in the next
MAKATI CITY Growth three years.
-1.1% -3.1%
Selling Price: (2) Figures (in PHP) refer
PHP 211,100 – 415,600 per sqm PASIG CITY to average asking
q-o-q y-o-y Selling Price: selling prices.
Growth
-1.5% -3.4% PHP 89,900 – 316,800 per sqm (3) Percentages refer to
q-o-q y-o-y selling price growth on
Growth quarter-on-quarter and
-1.1% -1.2% year-on-year bases.
PASAY CITY (4) Pipeline
Selling Price: TAGUIG CITY addition from upper
PHP 156,900 – 375,000 per sqm Selling Price: midscale developments
in Manila City pulled up
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 110,400 – 417,000 per sqm over-all y-o-y weighted
Growth q-o-q y-o-y selling price.
-0.6% -9.5% Growth
-1.3% -4.6% Sources:
PARAÑAQUE CITY JLL Research &
Selling Price: MUNTINLUPA CITY Consultancy; various
PHP 92,600 – 402,700 per sqm Selling Price: developers, brokers, or
owners
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 85,100 – 222,700 per sqm
Growth
1.7% -4.9% q-o-q y-o-y
Growth
0.1% -1.5%
CONTACT US FOR OUR MAPIT
CAPABILITIES AND SERVICES
© 2021 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved.
Retail Market
1Q21
CONTACT US FOR OUR MAPIT
CAPABILITIES AND SERVICES
Retail Annual Supply
No completions observed in 1Q21 with most of 2021 upcoming supply to be completed by 2H21.
No confirmed developments in Metro Manila foreseen post-2023. On average, the market observed
about 224,108 sqm added to total existing supply since 2016. Meanwhile, about 55,400 sqm is
foreseen to be completed until 2024.
500,000
Makati City
300,000 Mandaluyong City
GLA (in sqm)
Manila City
Muntinlupa City
Parañaque City
Pasay City
200,000 Pasig City
Quezon City
Note:
Taguig City
Others Covers shopping malls.
100,000 Average Annual Supply (Existing)
Sources:
Average Annual Supply (Future)
JLL Research &
Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
owners
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
The upcoming supply (464,500 sqm) for 1Q21 that got deferred.
Muntinlupa City
5.9%
Parañaque City
6.2%
Makati City
12.6%
Quezon City
Pasig City
27.3%
6.6%
6.5 M 277,000
Taguig City
Taguig City Quezon City
14.8%
6.8% 48.0%
MANILA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
3.3% 1.6% 0.4%
MANDALUYONG CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
4.5% 3.7% 1.7%
MAKATI CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 PASIG CITY
13.2% 6.1% 3.9% 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
36.6% 20.5% 5.7%
Notes:
Sources:
6,000
4,000
Makati City
Mandaluyong City
Rooms
Manila City
3,000 Muntinlupa City
Parañaque City
Pasay City
2,000 Pasig City
Quezon City Note:
The upcoming supply (2,500 rooms) for 1Q21 that got deferred.
6,800
7.8%
40,200
9.2%
Parañaque City
8.6% UPCOMING ROOMS Note:
EXISTING ROOMS Taguig City
(2021E-2024E)
(as of 1Q21) 12.5%
Covers economy to
luxury hotels and
Quezon City Pasay City Parañaque City serviced apartments.
9
8.2
8
7.1
Tourist Arrival (in millions)
7 6.6
5.9
6
5.3
4.8
5
3
Note:
Source:
1 Department of Tourism
(DOT)
0.03
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q2021
MANILA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
72.0% 78.9% 99.9% MANDALUYONG CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 Notes:
(3) Figures in
percentages refer to
occupancy rates.
TAGUIG CITY
PASAY CITY Sources:
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 JLL Research &
20.4% 22.2% 49.4% Consultancy; various
20.6% 21.3% 28.2% developers, brokers, or
owners
Thank you!
Paul Ryan Cuevas
SENIOR ANALYST
RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Paul.Cuevas@ap.jll.com
ASIA PACIFIC
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK
Nicole Alfaro
ANALYST
RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Nicole.Alfaro@ap.jll.com
Disclaimer Pte Ltd or its affiliates (together, “JLL”). It is not a research report and is not intended as such. This document should not be used as a basis for
trading in the securities or loans of the companies named herein or for any other investment decision. This document does not constitute an
offer to sell the securities or loans of the companies named herein or a solicitation of proxies or votes and should not be construed as
consisting of investment advice. This document is based solely on publicly available information or information you have prov ided to us (or
otherwise provided to us under your permission) and all discussions between JLL and you at this time must be on that basis. This document is
neither an expressed nor an implied commitment by JLL to act in any capacity with respect to you, which commitment shall only be set forth in
an engagement letter to be executed between you and JLL. This document and your receipt thereof do not restrict JLL from being engaged by,
or otherwise acting with, any other party in any capacity. JLL has not cleared conflicts with respect to any specific assignment and would need
to clear any specific assignment through our internal conflicts clearance process before conducting further analysis or committing to work with
you. Please also note that JLL has close relationships with companies in the sectors referenced herein and may be engaged in similar work for
others with respect to any of the companies named herein, and may ultimately work with another party on an assignment relating to any of the
matters discussed in this document. JLL acts as independent contractors and nothing contained herein shall be deemed to create a fiduciary,
agency or other relationship between JLL, on the one hand, and you or your shareholders, directors, officers, employees or creditors, on the
other, nor shall any of the foregoing persons rely on this document or the presentation thereof. Information contained in this document was
obtained from publicly available sources or the data room as to which you have provided us permission to access and has not been
independently verified by JLL and does not constitute a recommendation from JLL to you or to any other party. JLL has relied upon the
accuracy and completeness of all of the financial, accounting and other information discussed with or reviewed by it and has assumed such
accuracy and completeness for purposes of this document. This document contains statements that are not purely historical in nature but are
forward-looking. These include, among other things, hypothetical illustrations and discussions describing potential future outcomes and
developments. Such illustrations and discussions are based upon certain assumptions that JLL in its discretion considers appropriate. JLL
does not makes any representation about the likelihood of any future outcome, development or other event discussed in this document and
this document should not be relied upon as a prediction or guarantee of any future event. Actual events are difficult to predict, are beyond the
control of JLL, and may differ from those assumed, and such differences may be material. JLL does not make any representation or warranty,
express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document and any liability therefore (including in
respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. This document does not purport to contain all of the
information that may be required to evaluate any potential transaction and should not be relied upon in connection with any potential
transaction. JLL does not undertake or expects to update or otherwise revise this document. JLL does not provide legal, accounting or tax
advice and you are strongly advised to consult your own independent advisors on any legal, tax or accounting issues that may be relevant to
you. The receipt of this document by any recipient is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by JLL to that recipient, nor
to constitute such person a client of JLL.