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Metro Manila `

PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW (1Q21)

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Macroeconomic
The economy contracted anew in 1Q21, further extending the pandemic-induced recession.
In the country where COVID-19 infections continued to rise, a successful vaccine rollout and
herd immunity would be deemed crucial for economic recovery.

Snapshot -4.2% USD 961.0 M 110.9 M USD 26.7 B


GDP GROWTH NET FDI POPULATION IT-BPM REVENUE
1Q21 Jan 2021 Jan 2021 2020
-4.1% y-o-y growth 41.5% y-o-y growth 1.3% y-o-y growth 3 1.4% y-o-y growth
FY 2021 Forecast: 6.5-7.5% 1 FY 2021 Forecast: USD 7.8 B 2 FY 2021 Forecast: USD 27.4 B 4

4.5% USD 2.8 B 7.1% 1.4 M


HEADLINE INFLATION RATE REMITTANCES UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TOURIST ARRIVALS
Apr 2021 YTD Feb 2021 Mar 2021 FY 2020
1Q21 Rate: 4.5% 6.3% y-o-y growth Feb 2021 Rate: 8.8% -82.9% y-o-y growth
FY 2021 Forecast: 4.1% 5 FY 2021 Forecast: USD 4.12 B 6 FY 2021 Forecast: 8.4% 7 FY 2021 Forecast: 10.0 M 8

PHP 48.5 PHP 327.2 M 2.0%


USD EXCHANGE RATE GAMING REVENUE INTEREST RATE
Average Apr 2021 Jan 2021 Apr 2021
Philippines Mar 2021 Rate: PHP 48.6
FY 2021 Forecast: PHP47.8 9
-68.6% y-o-y growth
FY 2021 Forecast: PHP 3.9 B 10
0 bp q-o-q
FY 2021 Forecast: 1.9% 11

Notes:
1
Projections by the National Economic Development Authority (NEDA) – Apr 2021
2 Net FDI projections by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) – Mar 2021
3
Projections by Commission on Population and Development (POPCOM) using geometric change, based on updated mid -year population projections of the
Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) – Oct 2019
4 Calculations by IT and Business Process Association of the Philippines (IBPAP) based on updated revenue figures – Jan 2021
5 Asian Development Bank. Asian Development Outlook (ADO) – Apr 2021
6
Projections by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas – Mar 2021
7,9, 11
Oxford Economics: Philippine Economic Forecast – Apr 2021
8 With targets unlikely to be met in the near future, Department of Tourism (DOT) will revise its projections in the National T ourism Development Plan (NTDP)
10
Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) projection is based on industry’s weak tax yield in Jan 2021.

Sources:
Asian Development Bank (ADB); Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA); Bangko Sentralng Pilipinas (BSP); Commission on Population and Development (POPCOM); IBPAP;
Department of Tourism (DOT); Oxford Economics; BIR
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Office
✓ Outsourcing and offshoring (O&O) transactions drove lease demand, up by 28.3% q-o-q; majority of leases were renewals.
✓ Overall vacancy breached double-digit territory at 14.7% from 11.0% in 4Q20 and in 7.4% 1Q20 as sizeable move outs encountered
from POGOs and O&Os.

Residential
Highlights
✓ Persistent reopening of midscale units weakened overall sales performance of RFO (net take-up of -672 units from 1,900 in 4Q20
and 269 in 1Q20) and pre-selling (-8 in 1Q21, from 111 in 4Q20 and 42 in 1Q20) markets.
✓ Lease transfers dictated the activities, but in upscale to luxury midscale segments. The general market remained challenged due to
higher number of vacant units in lower segments.

Retail

✓ Vacancy surged by 235 bps q-o-q and 371 bps y-o-y in 1Q21 as the number of store closures and pull-outs continue to surge.
✓ As some mall operators continue to cut rents to mitigate tenant moveouts and draw new tenants.

Hospitality
✓ Continued influx of repatriated overseas Filipinos (OFs) drove the demand, but at a marginal level.
✓ Average room rate declined by 18.7% q-o-q and 36.0% y-oy as most developments keep experiencing occupancy challenges.

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Metro Manila Districts
QUEZON
CITY
MANDALUYONG
MANILA CITY MAKATI CITY PASIG CITY QUEZON CITY
CITY
Ortigas Center
Eastwood City
MANILA Ortigas Center Circulo Verde
Makati CBD Ortigas Center
CITY Bridgetowne Araneta City
Binondo Rockwell Center Capitol Commons
Greenfield District Triangle Park
PASIG Taft Corridor Century City Ortigas East
Robinsons Cybergate SM North EDSA
CITY Manila Others Circuit Makati Arcovia City
Complex Fairview
MAKATI Makati Others Pasig Others
Mandaluyong Others Cloverleaf
CITY
Bridgetowne
Quezon Others
TAGUIG
CITY PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY

PARAÑAQUE
CITY Bonifacio Global City Alabang and Madrigal
SM Mall of Asia
McKinley Hill Business Park
Complex Aseana City
McKinley West Filinvest City
Newport City Parañaque Others
Arca South South Park District
Pasay Others
Taguig Others Muntinlupa Others

Note:

JLL Research and Consultancy similarly includes other areas in Metro Manila apart from the aforementioned districts.

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Grading & Classification
OFFICE RESIDENTIAL RETAIL HOSPITALITY

Economy hotels are small to


Mid-range residential condominiums medium-sized hotel establishments
refer to developments with typical that offer basic accommodations
unit selling prices of approximately with little to no services.
Prime office developments refer
PHP 1.5 million to PHP 15.0 million.
to high-tier, superb building
Midscale hotels refer to mid-income
specifications with international
The mid-range sector is further hotel properties with good
quality finishes and usually located
divided into 3 sub-segments namely: accommodations, spacious and high-
in prime locations within central
upper-mid with prices ranging from quality facilities, and wide range of
business districts (CBDs) and key Retail shopping malls refer to the
PHP 10.0 million to PHP 15.0 million, services.
business hubs. key shopping malls developed by
middle-mid with prices ranging from
major mall developers and are
PHP 5.0 million to PHP 10 million, and Upscale hotels refer to upscale hotel
Grade A office developments refer situated in prime locations such as
low-mid with prices ranging from PHP properties with refined and stylish
to modern specification buildings along major roads and/or central
1.5 million to PHP 5 million. accommodations, responsive service
with high quality finishes and business districts (CBD).
and often include a wide array of
usually located in or near central
High-end residential condominiums facilities.
business districts (CBDs) and key
refer to developments with typical
business hubs.
unit selling price of more than Luxury hotels refer to luxurious and
PHP 15 million, and are usually sophisticated hotel properties with
characterised with larger unit sizes. world-class facilities and meticulous
service.

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Office Market
1Q21
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Office Annual Supply
No developments completed in 1Q21 as supply slippages pushed to end of the year. On average, the
market observed about 669,600 sqm added to total existing supply since 2016. Meanwhile, about
403,900 sqm, on average, is foreseen to be completed until 2024.

1,200,000
Existing Supply (as of 1Q21): 9.8 million sqm
Future Supply (2021E-2024E): 1.6 million sqm
1,000,000

Makati City
Mandaluyong City
800,000
Manila City
Muntinlupa City
GLA (sqm)

Paranaque City
600,000
Pasay City
Pasig City
Quezon City
400,000 Taguig City
Note:
Others
Average Annual Supply (Existing) Covers Prime and Grade
A office developments.
200,000 Average Annual Supply (Future)
Sources:

JLL Office Leasing


Advisory; JLL Research
0 & Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E owners

The upcoming supply (294,500 sqm) for 1Q21 that got deferred.

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Office Market Share
Presence of major business districts made cities of Taguig and Makati the dominant areas for
accumulated Prime to Grade A office space. Meanwhile, Quezon City is seen to outpace Makati
City in terms of three-year supply pipeline.

Paranaque City Manila City Muntinlupa City


Others Others
1.4% 0.5% 2.5%
3.7% 2.6%
Mandaluyong City Paranaque City
5.9% 5.4%

Muntinlupa City Taguig City


Taguig City
6.8% Pasay City 22.5%
25.6%
7.6%

9.8 M 1.6 M
Pasay City
7.3%
Pasig City
16.3%
EXISTING GLA – SQM FUTURE GLA – SQM
(as of 1Q21) (2021E-2024E)
Pasig City Quezon City Note:

14.8% Makati City


22.0% Covers Prime and Grade
18.5% A office developments.

Sources:
Makati City
Quezon City JLL Office Leasing
15.6%
21.1% Advisory; JLL Research
& Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
owners

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Office Vacancy
Significant POGO and O&O moveouts pushed average Metro Manila vacancy up to 14.7% in 1Q21
from 11.0% in 4Q20 and in 7.4% 1Q20. Same situation was observed in 4Q20 where the market
recorded double-digit average vacancy, owing to moveouts from both traditional offices and POGOs. QUEZON CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
22.2% 16.9% 14.4%

MANILA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
9.3% 20.3% 19.8%
MANDALUYONG CITY
Notes:
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
32.8% 19.8% 5.5% (1) Covers Prime and
Grade A office
developments.

MAKATI CITY (2) Figures in


percentages refer to
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 PASIG CITY vacancy rates across all

14.6% 11.2% 5.1% 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 existing developments.

12.0% 10.3% 6.4% Sources:

JLL Office Leasing


Advisory; JLL Research
& Consultancy; various
PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY developers, brokers, or
owners
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
7.5% 8.0% 6.6% 9.3% 6.4% 7.0%

PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY


1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
20.0% 9.5% 0.4% 12.2% 13.1% 5.7%

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Office Pre-commitment
Pipeline developments in 2022 recorded with the highest aggregated pre-commitment rate of
52.6% relative to other developments slated to complete in the next three years.

250,000

200,000

Notes:

(1) Covers Prime and


150,000 Grade A office
developments.
GLA (sqm)

(2) Figures in sqm refer


to total pipeline supply
per district per year.
100,000
(3) Figures in
percentages refer to
90% pre-commitment rate
per district per year.
57%
50,000 Sources:

JLL Office Leasing


30% Advisory; JLL Research
& Consultancy; various
17% 33% 42% 32% 8% developers, brokers, or
2% 8% 2%
0 owners
Taguig City Makati City Quezon City Pasay City Pasig City Paranaque Muntinlupa Makati City Taguig City Pasig City Quezon City Taguig City Quezon City Muntinlupa Taguig City
City City City

2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E


2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E

Pre-committedSpace
Pre-committed Remaining
RemainingSpace
Space
Space

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Office Demand Drivers
O&O renewals dominated lease transactions in 1Q21, taking up an average of 2,000 sqm.
Historically, O&O take-up rose by 28.3% q-o-q, but still down by 54.2% y-o-y. Regardless, O&O
firms consistently make up majority of lease transactions.

18% 18%
10%
Notes:

1% (1) Covers
Prime and Grade A
office developments.
20% (2) Based on lease
transaction data from
1Q21 vs. 4Q20 47% 1Q21 vs. 1Q20 52% 52%
JLL Office Leasing
52% Advisory.

(3) Inner donut refers to


reference historical
quarter, while outer
70% 30%
donut refers to current
30% quarter.

Sources:

JLL Office Leasing


Advisory; JLL Research
& Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
owners

O&O Traditional Government O&O Traditional Government

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Office Rents
Average Metro Manila rent moved sideways by -0.8% q-o-q and -3.0% y-o-y, registering at PHP 1,120
per sqm per month. Landlords of high-vacancy developments discounted asking rents to attract new
tenants. QUEZON CITY
Monthly Rent: PHP 700-1,000 per sqm
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth
-1.2% -1.3%
MANILA CITY
Monthly Rent: PHP 600-700 per sqm
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth MANDALUYONG CITY
-5.6% -6.5%
Notes:
Monthly Rent: PHP 600-1,200 per sqm
q-o-q y-o-y (1) Covers Prime and
Growth Grade A office
-3.5% -1.9% developments.

MAKATI CITY (2) Based on asking


rents of available
Monthly Rent: PHP 800-1,950per sqm PASIG CITY existing office space

q-o-q y-o-y Monthly Rent: PHP 550-1,000 per sqm across the handover
conditions: bare shell,
Growth q-o-q y-o-y
-3.0% -5.2% Growth
warm shell, as is, and
partially fitted.
-0.7% -4.9%
(3) Figures in
percentages refer to
PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY growth rates across all
existing developments.
Monthly Rent: PHP 900-1,750per sqm Monthly Rent: PHP 800-1,800 per sqm
Sources:
q-o-q y-o-y q-o-q y-o-y
Growth Growth
-0.4% -1.0% -0.4% -0.4% JLL Office Leasing
Advisory; JLL Research
& Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
owners
PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY
Monthly Rent: PHP 1,200-1,500per sqm Monthly Rent: PHP 600-980 per sqm
q-o-q y-o-y q-o-q y-o-y
Growth Growth
-2.2% -6.4% -0.6% -1.4%

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Office Capital Values
Additional reopening of available office units in the secondary market pulled average
capital value down by 7.9% q-o-q and 9.6% y-o-y at PHP 216,100 per sqm.

PASIG CITY
Capital Value:
PHP 120,000 – 329,300 per sqm Notes:
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth (1) Covers Prime
-2.4% -5.5% and Grade A
office developments.

MAKATI CITY (2) Based on


asking prices of
Capital Value: available existing office
space across the
PHP 170,500 - 335,100 per sqm handover conditions:
q-o-q y-o-y bare shell, warm shell,
Growth as is, and partially
-3.1% -6.0% fitted.
TAGUIG CITY
Capital Value: (3) Figures in
percentages refer to
PHP 232,100 - 428,600 per sqm growth rates across all
q-o-q y-o-y existing developments.
Growth
MUNTINLUPA CITY -3.6% -9.9% Sources:
Capital Value:
JLL Research &
PHP 206,000 – 272,000 per sqm Consultancy; various
q-o-q y-o-y developers, brokers, or
Growth owners
-1.7% -2.3%

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Residential Market
1Q21
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Residential Annual Supply
The completion of 14 developments added about 7,300 units to total existing supply. Upcoming supply
for 2024 sees greatest expansion, followed by 2021 with an additional 26,200 units. On average, the
market observed about 25,960 units added to total existing supply since 2016. Meanwhile, about 24,100
units are foreseen to be completed until 2024.

40,000

35,000 Existing Supply (as of 1Q21): 423,200 units


Future Supply (2021E-2024E): 96,300 units
30,000

25,000 Makati City


Mandaluyong City
Units

Manila City
20,000 Muntinlupa City
Parañaque City
Pasay City
15,000 Pasig City
Quezon City Note:
Taguig City
10,000 Covers midscale to
Others luxury developments.
Annual Average Supply (Existing)
Sources:
5,000 Annual Average Supply (Future)
JLL Research &
Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
0 owners

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E
The initial supply projection for 1Q21 was around 6,000 units.
Actual completions reached 7,300 units.
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Residential Market Share
Quezon City continued to dominate existing market share at 21.7%, reflecting its stance as the most populated city
in the metro. Makati City (17.8%) and Taguig City (12.9%) follow, which house primary business districts. Pasay City
is seen to take the lead in the next three years with 18.9% of pipeline share due to high-density multi-tower
developments, followed by Quezon City with 17.4%.

Muntinlupa City
Others Manila City 3.0%
Muntinlupa City
2.3% 4.6%
3.0%
Parañaque City
5.8% Others Pasay City
Quezon City
Pasay City 5.3% 18.9%
21.7%
6.5% Makati City
8.1%

96,300
Mandaluyong City
9.4%
423,200 Mandaluyong City
9.0% Quezon City
EXISTING UNITS Makati City UPCOMING UNITS 17.4%
Pasig City (as of 1Q21) (2021E-2024E) Note:
17.8%
10.3% Covers midscale to
luxury developments.
Pasig City
10.1% Sources:
Manila City
Taguig City Taguig City
10.3% JLL Research &
Parañaque City Consultancy; various
12.9% 12.0%
11.5% developers, brokers, or
owners

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Residential Vacancy
Average Metro Manila vacancy moved upwards to 7.3% in 1Q21 from 7.0% in 4Q20 and 3.5% in
1Q20, as districts saw drop in lease demand – specifically in the luxury segment.
QUEZON CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
4.4% 3.8% 2.5%

MANILA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
12.0% 11.6% 0.6%
MANDALUYONG CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
4.8% 3.9% 3.9%

MAKATI CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 PASIG CITY Notes:
9.2% 8.9% 5.0% 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
(1) Based on a market
8.3% 8.2% 3.5% basket of RFO semi-
furnished studio
to 2BR units in midscale
to luxury segments, as
of 1Q21.
PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY
(2) Figures in
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 percentages refer to
8.4% 7.5% 3.0% 8.7% 7.8% 6.0% vacancy rates.

Sources:

JLL Research &


Consultancy; various
PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY developers, brokers, or
owners
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
4.5% 4.4% 2.1% 12.2% 13.1% 5.7%

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Residential Rents
Average Metro Manila rent dropped by 1.2% q-o-q and 19.8% y-o-y to PHP 38,700 per month. Rental decline
can be attributed to the slowdown in general lease activity used to be driven by halfway home seekers
and expatriate housing. QUEZON CITY
Monthly Rent:
PHP 10,000 – 70,000
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth
MANILA CITY -1.6% -5.2%
Monthly Rent:
PHP 10,000 – 80,000 MANDALUYONG CITY Notes:

q-o-q y-o-y Monthly Rent: (1) Based on a market


Growth basket of RFO semi-
-1.8% -7.5% PHP 12,000 – 55,000 furnished studio to 2BR
q-o-q y-o-y units in midscale to
Growth luxury segments, as of
-1.6% -7.5%
MAKATI CITY 1Q21.

Monthly Rent: (2) Figures (in PHP) refer


PHP 15,000 – 240,000 PASIG CITY to average monthly
asking rents.
q-o-q y-o-y Monthly Rent:
Growth PHP 15,000 – 110,000 (3) Percentages refer to
-1.5% -9.2% rental growth on
q-o-q y-o-y quarter-on-quarter and
Growth year-on-year bases.
-1.1% -1.9%
PASAY CITY (4) Stock addition from
Monthly Rent: upper midscale to
PHP 19,000– 120,000 TAGUIG CITY upscale developments
in Mandaluyong City an
q-o-q y-o-y Monthly Rent: d Parañaque City pulled
Growth PHP 10,500 – 350,000 up over-all y-o-y
-1.1% -7.7% weighted rents.
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth Sources:
-1.0% -9.3%
PARAÑAQUE CITY JLL Research &
Monthly Rent: MUNTINLUPA CITY Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
PHP 10,000 – 89,500
Monthly Rent: owners
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 14,500 – 150,000
Growth
-0.2% 4.4% q-o-q y-o-y
Growth
-1.9% -9.7%
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Residential Sales | Existing Projects
Metro Manila RFO sale market saw a decline as total net take-up of -672 units in 1Q21, from 1,900 units in 4Q20 and 269 units in 1Q20,
on the back of continued unit re-openings mostly observed in luxury segment.

QUEZON CITY
YTD Net Take-up: -90 units
MANILA CITY 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 Notes:
YTD Net Take-up: -43 units 93.1% 94.7% 94.2% (1) Based on a market
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 basket of RFO semi-
98.0% 100.0% 78.9% MANDALUYONG CITY furnished studio
to 2BR units in midscale to
YTD Net Take-up: -98 units luxury segments, as of
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21.

MAKATI CITY 97.4% 99.4% 97.3% (2) Figures in percentages


refer to cumulative sales
YTD Net Take-up: -255 units rates since launch period.
PASIG CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
YTD Net Take-up: -88 units (3) Stock addition from
97.2% 99.8% 95.5% recently completed almost
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 to fully sold-out
developments in Makati
96.7% 97.0% 91.4% City, Mandaluyong City,
Manila City, Muntinlupa City
, Paranaque City, and Pasig
PASAY CITY City led to higher cumulativ
YTD Net Take-up: -42 units e sales rate compared to
TAGUIG CITY 1Q20 figures.
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 YTD Net Take-up: 0 units
98.2% 99.6% 99.9% 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 Sources:
95.9% 99.9% 97.3% JLL Research &
Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
PARAÑAQUE CITY owners
YTD Net Take-up: -49 units MUNTINLUPA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 YTD Net Take-up: 0 units
93.9% 99.6% 89.7% 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
97.2% 97.2% 76.4%

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Residential Selling Prices | Existing Projects
Average Metro Manila RFO selling price fell in 1Q21 to PHP 186,600 per sqm, down by 1.7% q-o-q and 0.5% y-o-y with most developers
retaining and discounting prices to stimulate sales.

QUEZON CITY
Selling Price:
PHP 88,000 – 269,100 per sqm
MANILA CITY
q-o-q y-o-y
Selling Price: Growth Notes:
PHP 60,800– 232,600 per sqm -1.2% -1.1%
(1) Based on a market
q-o-q y-o-y MANDALUYONG CITY basket of RFO semi-
Growth furnished studio to 2BR
-1.6% -9.9% Selling Price: units in midscale to
PHP 146,000 – 289,200 per sqm luxury segments, as of
1Q21.
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth (2) Figures (in PHP) refer
-1.5% 3.6% to average asking
MAKATI CITY selling prices.
Selling Price: PASIG CITY
(3) Percentages refer to
PHP 142,700 – 457,000per sqm Selling Price: selling price growth on
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 118,000 – 370,180 per sqm quarter-on-quarter and
Growth q-o-q y-o-y year-on-year bases.
-1.5% -5.9% Growth
-1.3% 3.6% (4) Stock addition from
upper midscale to
PASAY CITY upscale developments
Selling Price: TAGUIG CITY in Mandaluyong City, Pa
PHP 186,900 – 383,500 per sqm Selling Price: ranaque City, Pasay
City, and Pasig City
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 151,200 – 474,500 per sqm pulled up over-all y-o-y
Growth q-o-q y-o-y weighted selling prices.
-1.4% 3.3% Growth
-1.2% -5.5% Sources:
PARAÑAQUE CITY JLL Research &
Selling Price: MUNTINLUPA CITY Consultancy; various
PHP 98,500 – 212,600 per sqm Selling Price: developers, brokers, or
owners
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 155,600 – 286,900 per sqm
Growth q-o-q y-o-y
-1.6% 3.9% Growth
0.5% -3.1%
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Residential Sales | Future Projects
Similar to the RFO market, the pre-selling market fell to negative territory as total net take-up registered -8 units in 1Q21, from
111 units in 4Q20 and 42 units in 1Q20. Continued unit re-openings in the midscale pre-selling market pulled down the
overall performance – including net sales and cumulative sales rate.

QUEZON CITY
MANILA CITY
YTD Net Take-up: 31 units
YTD Net Take-up: -4 units
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
91.8% 94.2% 99.8%
72.0% 78.9% 99.9% Notes:

(1) Based on a market


MANDALUYONG CITY basket of pipeline semi-
MAKATI CITY YTD Net Take-up: -40 units furnished studio
to 2BR units in midscale
YTD Net Take-up: -78 units 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 to luxury segments,
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 89.3% 97.8% 99.4% slated to complete in
the next three years.
90.5% 80.9% 99.9%
PASIG CITY (2) Figures in
percentages refer to
YTD Net Take-up: -40 units cumulative sales rates
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 since launch period.

PASAY CITY 87.8% 90.3% 99.8% Sources:


YTD Net Take-up: -21 units JLL Research &
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 TAGUIG CITY Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
98.5% 96.4% 99.7% YTD Net Take-up: 5 units owners
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
89.4% 96.9% 99.9%
PARAÑAQUE CITY
YTD Net Take-up: -184 units MUNTINLUPA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 YTD Net Take-up: -3 units
84.1% 90.6% 98.7% 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
95.0% 90.0% 97.5%

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Residential Selling Prices | Future Projects
Like RFO selling prices, average Metro Manila pre-selling price dropped to PHP 215,600 per sqm, by 1.5% q-o-q and 3.5%
y-o-y as developers continue to employ more flexibility through better discounts and payment terms.

QUEZON CITY
Selling Price:
PHP 94,000 – 305,900 per sqm
MANILA CITY q-o-q y-o-y
Selling Price: Growth
-0.1% -5.0% Notes:
PHP 97,100– 252,000 per sqm
q-o-q y-o-y MANDALUYONG CITY (1) Based on a market
Growth basket of pipeline semi-
-1.9% 3.9% Selling Price: furnished studio to 2BR
PHP 129,000 – 294,000 per sqm units in midscale to
luxury segments, slated
q-o-q y-o-y to complete in the next
MAKATI CITY Growth three years.
-1.1% -3.1%
Selling Price: (2) Figures (in PHP) refer
PHP 211,100 – 415,600 per sqm PASIG CITY to average asking
q-o-q y-o-y Selling Price: selling prices.
Growth
-1.5% -3.4% PHP 89,900 – 316,800 per sqm (3) Percentages refer to
q-o-q y-o-y selling price growth on
Growth quarter-on-quarter and
-1.1% -1.2% year-on-year bases.
PASAY CITY (4) Pipeline
Selling Price: TAGUIG CITY addition from upper
PHP 156,900 – 375,000 per sqm Selling Price: midscale developments
in Manila City pulled up
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 110,400 – 417,000 per sqm over-all y-o-y weighted
Growth q-o-q y-o-y selling price.
-0.6% -9.5% Growth
-1.3% -4.6% Sources:
PARAÑAQUE CITY JLL Research &
Selling Price: MUNTINLUPA CITY Consultancy; various
PHP 92,600 – 402,700 per sqm Selling Price: developers, brokers, or
owners
q-o-q y-o-y PHP 85,100 – 222,700 per sqm
Growth
1.7% -4.9% q-o-q y-o-y
Growth
0.1% -1.5%
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Retail Market
1Q21
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Retail Annual Supply
No completions observed in 1Q21 with most of 2021 upcoming supply to be completed by 2H21.
No confirmed developments in Metro Manila foreseen post-2023. On average, the market observed
about 224,108 sqm added to total existing supply since 2016. Meanwhile, about 55,400 sqm is
foreseen to be completed until 2024.

500,000

Existing Supply (as of 1Q21): 6.5 million sqm


Future Supply (2021E-2024E): 277,000 sqm
400,000

Makati City
300,000 Mandaluyong City
GLA (in sqm)

Manila City
Muntinlupa City
Parañaque City
Pasay City
200,000 Pasig City
Quezon City
Note:
Taguig City
Others Covers shopping malls.
100,000 Average Annual Supply (Existing)
Sources:
Average Annual Supply (Future)
JLL Research &
Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
owners
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E

The upcoming supply (464,500 sqm) for 1Q21 that got deferred.

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Retail Market Share
Quezon City holds most of the total existing retail supply with 27.3%, reflective of the market
catchment as it is the most populous city in Metro Manila. It is expected to dominate almost half
of upcoming stock at 48.0% a mix of expansion plans and new developments in
emerging townships.

Muntinlupa City
5.9%
Parañaque City
6.2%

Makati City
12.6%

Quezon City
Pasig City
27.3%
6.6%

6.5 M 277,000
Taguig City
Taguig City Quezon City
14.8%
6.8% 48.0%

EXISTING GLA – SQM FUTURE GLA – SQM


Mandaluyong City (2021E-2024E)
6.9%
(as of 1Q21) Note:

Others Covers shopping malls.


11.9%
Makati City Sources:
8.1% Others
JLL Research &
24.5%
Consultancy; various
Pasay City Manila City developers, brokers, or
9.0% 11.4% owners

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Retail Vacancy
Average Metro Manila vacancy surged to 6.6% in 1Q21, up by 235 bps q-o-q and 371 bps y-o-y, as
store closures and pull-outs continued to outpace openings.
QUEZON CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
3.0% 2.1% 1.0%

MANILA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
3.3% 1.6% 0.4%
MANDALUYONG CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
4.5% 3.7% 1.7%

MAKATI CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 PASIG CITY
13.2% 6.1% 3.9% 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
36.6% 20.5% 5.7%
Notes:

(1) Covers shopping


PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY malls.

1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 (2) Figures in


percentages refer to
6.7% 8.2% 7.0% 2.6% 1.4% 1.1% vacancy rates across all
existing developments.

Sources:

JLL Research &


PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 owners
3.6% 2.8% 2.1% 12.7% 6.4% 0.8%

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Hospitality Market
1Q21
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Hospitality Annual Supply
In light of the recent situation, aggregate supply stock remains at 40,200 rooms. Due to prolonged
restrictions, projects slated for completion in 1Q21 were delayed. On average, the market observed
about 2,200 rooms added to total existing supply since 2016. Meanwhile, about 2,200 rooms are
foreseen to be completed until 2024.

6,000

Existing Supply (as of 1Q21): 40,200 rooms


5,000
Future Supply (2021E-2024E): 6,800 rooms

4,000
Makati City
Mandaluyong City
Rooms

Manila City
3,000 Muntinlupa City
Parañaque City
Pasay City
2,000 Pasig City
Quezon City Note:

Taguig City Covers economy to


Others luxury hotels and
1,000 serviced apartments.
Annual Average Supply (Existing)
Sources:
Annual Average Supply (Future)
JLL Research &
0 Consultancy; various
developers, brokers, or
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q21 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E owners

The upcoming supply (2,500 rooms) for 1Q21 that got deferred.

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Hospitality Market Share
Given the absence of completions, bulk of the existing stock remained concentrated in the cities
of Makati, Pasay, and Manila. Meanwhile, most upcoming supply are still saturated in cities of
Quezon, Paranaque, and Pasay as these areas were observed to have a growing leisure market
focused on hotel-casinos.

Mandaluyong City Others


3.2% 0.4% Manila City
Muntinlupa City 2.8%
Pasig City
5.1% Others
3.2%
5.6%
Mandaluyong City

Taguig City 3.5%


Makati City Quezon City
5.3%
24.8% 23.7%
Pasig City
Makati City

6,800
7.8%

40,200
9.2%

Parañaque City
8.6% UPCOMING ROOMS Note:
EXISTING ROOMS Taguig City
(2021E-2024E)
(as of 1Q21) 12.5%
Covers economy to
luxury hotels and
Quezon City Pasay City Parañaque City serviced apartments.

9.0% 18.1% 21.3% Sources:

JLL Research &


Pasay City Consultancy; various
Manila City developers, brokers, or
18.2%
17.6% owners

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Tourist Arrivals
Travel restrictions here and around the world continue to negatively affect the number of visitors to the Philippines. In 1Q21, the country
welcomed 29,383 visitors, a 97.9% drop from the 1.4-million arrivals recorded in the same period last year. With targets unlikely to be met in
end-2021, DOT has decided to revisit its initial tourist arrival projection (10 million) and observe further progress in the meantime.

9
8.2
8
7.1
Tourist Arrival (in millions)

7 6.6
5.9
6
5.3
4.8
5

3
Note:

Tourism data obtained


2 1.5 as of 1Q21.

Source:
1 Department of Tourism
(DOT)
0.03
0
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1Q2021

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Hospitality Occupancy
Average Metro Manila occupancy settled at 20.9% in 1Q21, from 22.0% in 4Q20 and 35.7% in
1Q20. Most establishments were still temporarily barred from accepting guests with operational
establishments catering mostly to returning OFs. QUEZON CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
18.3% 19.1% 22.2%

MANILA CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
72.0% 78.9% 99.9% MANDALUYONG CITY
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 Notes:

18.5% 16.0% 53.2% (1) Covers economy to


luxury hotels and
serviced apartments

MAKATI CITY PASIG CITY (2) Based on a market


basket of existing
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 economy to luxury
20.6% 22.0% 41.6% 26.0% 31.7% 44.9% hotels and serviced
apartments.

(3) Figures in
percentages refer to
occupancy rates.
TAGUIG CITY
PASAY CITY Sources:
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 JLL Research &
20.4% 22.2% 49.4% Consultancy; various
20.6% 21.3% 28.2% developers, brokers, or
owners

PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY


1Q21 4Q20 1Q20 1Q21 4Q20 1Q20
18.8% 20.9% 34.7% 29.2% 31.4% 42.6%

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Hospitality Room Rates
Average Metro Manila rate declined by 18.7% q-o-q and 36.0% y-oy to PHP 5,400 per room per night as most hotels
aim to revive occupancies in 1Q21. The bust in demand due to the lack of tourist arrivals is expected to continue to
exert downward pressure on average daily rates in the near to medium term.
QUEZON CITY
Room Rate:
PHP 1,400 – 4,800 per night
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth
MANILA CITY -11.2% -24.5%
Room Rate:
PHP 1,900 - 4,000 per night MANDALUYONG CITY
Room Rate: Notes:
q-o-q y-o-y
Growth PHP 1,300 – 11,000 per night (1) Based on a market
-11.9% -39.2%
q-o-q y-o-y basket of existing
Growth standard and deluxe
-2.5% -4.5% rooms in economy to
luxury segments.
MAKATI CITY PASIG CITY
Room Rate: Room Rate:
(2) Figures (in PHP) refer
to average
PHP 1,500 - 4,800 per night PHP 2,000 – 6,000 per night published room rates.
q-o-q y-o-y q-o-q y-o-y
Growth Growth
(3) Percentages refer to
-27.3% -34.9% 0.4% -29.7% room rate growth on
quarter-on-quarter and
year-and-year bases.
PASAY CITY TAGUIG CITY
Sources:
Room Rate: Room Rate:
PHP 3,000 – 11,500 per night PHP 4,800 – 12,000 per night JLL Research &
Consultancy; various
q-o-q y-o-y q-o-q y-o-y
Growth Growth developers, brokers, or
-19.2% -25.4% -2.5% -36.1% owners

PARAÑAQUE CITY MUNTINLUPA CITY


Room Rate Room Rate:
PHP 1,700 – 16,700 per night PHP 1,700 – 6,000 per night
q-o-q y-o-y q-o-q y-o-y
Growth Growth
-20.1% -28.3% 1.4% -38.8%
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Janlo de los Reyes
HEAD
RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
UNLOCKING VALUE IN
REAL ESTATE: Janlo.DelosReyes@ap.jll.com
THE POST PANDEMIC GUIDE TO
ASSET ENHANCEMENT

Thank you!
Paul Ryan Cuevas
SENIOR ANALYST
RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Paul.Cuevas@ap.jll.com
ASIA PACIFIC
REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK

Nicole Alfaro
ANALYST
RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
Nicole.Alfaro@ap.jll.com

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