CLIMATE OUTLOOK and REVIEW

from PROFESSOR ROGER STONE

Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments
University of Southern Queensland
Toowoomba
(includes a special segment on ‘climate change’)

“Probability of receiving ‘normal’ summer rain above normal

for many regions for this time of the year.
La Nina pattern ‘gains traction’ ”.

1st December 2007:

The aim of this review is to provide a critical analysis of climate forecasts and
associated information from a wide range of credible sources.

Overview update:

Climate forecasts:
Most long-term climate models continue to suggest a somewhat subdued ‘La Nina’
pattern for the remainder of this year and into early 2008, although it is worth
pointing out that many ocean-climate models are suggesting some enhanced
development of the current pattern. This type of pattern suggests higher than
climatological odds for rainfall for the Dec-Feb period for many regions in Australia,
especially eastern Australia.

The rainfall probability outputs associated with the ‘SOI phase system’ suggest the
chances of receiving the long-term median for the December – February period this
year are above 60% to 70% for many regions in eastern Australia, with values in
some regions approaching 80% in some regions of eastern Queensland (see map
below, courtesy of Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries).
Note that this refers to total rain over that period.

Previous forecast maps that have been referred to here are now also displayed
below.

Bureau of Meteorology/National Climate Centre climate outlooks for the above

period suggest the region in south-east Queensland and north-eastern NSW as a
region with higher than normal chances of above normal rain for this period.

Updated information on the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) can be found at

(http://www.apsru.gov.au/mjo/index.asp). Normal passage return rates would
suggest the next phase of this event would be due in late December or early
January.

Independent verification in real time results:

Results from Bureau of Meteorology assessment of the climate forecast systems
used in these analyses is presented in the Appendix.
Source: Stone, R.C., Hammer, G.L., and Marcussen, T. (1996) Nature, 384, 252-255, 21 November
1996.
Map source: Courtesy of and available at: http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/

Particularly useful forecast maps are available on the longpaddock web site
(http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/) and useful information is available on
http://www2.dpi.qld.gov.au/climate/.

Key Bureau of Meteorology information is available on

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/

Useful United States Climate Prediction Center information and forecasts are
available on http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Very useful UK Government Met Office information and forecasts are available on
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/seasonal/index.html.

ECMWF information is available at:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/seasonal/forecast/seasonal_range_
forecast/group_public/seasonal_charts_public_rain!rain!4%20months!East%20Asia!/
(or simply do a ‘Google’ on ECMWF).
Some comments on the ‘climate change issue’.
Following some discredited comments on varying media sources currently I thought
it may be timely to provide an opinion on ‘the climate change issue’.

• Why concern over climate change?

The main credible source of information concerning future climate change is the
output from ocean-atmosphere-earth surface general circulation models that can
simulate future changes in global circulation patterns. These models can simulate
changes in circulation patterns and impacts on the earth surface both incorporating
natural emissions (eg: solar irradiance, volcanic aerosols into the troposphere and
stratosphere) and, importantly, when anthropogenic/CO2 emissions are included
using the emission scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC).

The climate change models show, for instance, that parts of the central and eastern
Pacific Ocean can warm substantially under climate change. Note, that a change of
only 0.5 deg C in the ocean temperature in the central Pacific Ocean leads to an El
Niño event. It is well known that El Niño events have a major impact on Australia’s
rainfall and water resources. Note that this is a different set of arguments compared
to ‘is it hotter (or colder) today than at this time last year’ that seems to be currently
popular in discussing climate change.

• What is the world’s most credible source of information on this issue?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is part of the UN World

Meteorological Organisation. Input into IPCC statements comes from many
thousands of respected scientists throughout the world. In my opinion they could be
described as ‘conservative scientists’ of many years standing.

Output from the latest IPCC report makes the following statements of
relevance to Queensland and Australia:

• “There is an improving understanding of projected patterns in precipitation.

Increases in precipitation very likely in high latitudes (ie regions far away from
the Equator) – but decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions
continuing observed patterns in recent trends’ (eg: Southern Queensland
and cities such as Brisbane are in ‘the sub-tropics’).

• By mid-century annual river runoff and water availability are projected to

increase by 10-40% at high latitudes (ie: regions closer to the North and
South Poles) and in some wet tropical areas (ie on or near the Equator), but
decrease by 10-30% over mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of
which are presently water stressed areas (eg: southern Queensland and
northern NSW are in the ‘mid-latitudes’).

• ‘El Niño events are becoming more common’ and ‘more El Niño-like
mean conditions’ may prevail in the future (from the IPCC Third
 Assessment Report). (Note: that is different from ‘more El Niño events’ but
rather to say “more El Niño-like mean conditions”).

I would recommend readers access the ‘Summary for Policymakers’ from IPCC on
the following web-site: http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/spm22-01.pdf

I would also recommend:

http://www.dar.csiro.au/information/climatechange.html
http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/science/accsp/index.html
http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/
http://www.ucar.edu/research/climate/future.jsp
and, usefully:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/index.html

• Why the confusion?

In my opinion some scientists and some media have overly focussed on comments
on current single weather events as justification (or otherwise) for ‘climate change’ or
‘global warming’. While study of recent and past trends and patterns is important for
alerting us to issues related to climate variability and climate change, single events,
in particular, can also often be described in terms of natural variability and so an
unresolved argument can eventuate.

It is therefore important instead to assess the best available scientific

information for future climates as a way to move forward on this issue,
especially to refer to output from agencies such as the US National Centre for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate
Research, and the Australian CSIRO for detail of their climate model outputs
for the future.

Other confusion seems to arise from over the term ‘global warming’ as if the whole
earth’s surface has already heated up to an extent that we cannot possibly have cold
snaps or even cold seasons any more. In the first instance, if trends over the past
100 years for Australia are examined it is obvious that it is minimum temperatures
that have risen mostly (ie the temperatures we experience overnight and early in the
morning) rather than maximum temperatures. As an example, the frost season
(especially date of first and last frost) in many parts of north-east Australia has
contracted markedly over the past 50 years.

Additionally, the patterns of global circulation systems mean that any

temperature changes in the future would not necessarily be evenly distributed
(‘like icing on a cake’) around the globe anyway. Climate change model
projections show major regional differences around the globe for the future for
both temperature and rainfall.

In any case, it seems to me that the main issue associated with that ‘global warming’
is that it is likely to cause rapid and major shifts to our circulation patterns that would
likely change our rainfall patterns and shift us into a different climate regime, rather
than issues associated with temperature rise per se. .
 • Who to believe in this ‘debate’?

There over 1,000 scientists reporting to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change.

Most of these scientists have backgrounds and high qualifications at PhD level in
climate science, oceanography, and atmospheric chemistry. Note, that it is not
necessarily a background in day-to-day meteorology that is relevant here. Many of
these scientists, if I may be allowed to say so, have high-level qualification and
backgrounds in atmospheric and oceanographic circulation systems, not in some
other type of science. It is these types of qualifications that are important.

For any feedback please email me at stone@usq.edu.au

Best wishes
(Prof) Roger Stone PhD
Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments
University of Southern Queensland
APPENDIX

Previous issues of the climate forecast maps referred to on this site.

2007
2007
2007
 2007

2007
SOI phase system –
verification results - all
forecasts x each month’s
output over 8 years.