Simulation, Perception, and Prediction of the Spread of

COVID - 19 on Cellular Automata Models: a review

Rakshana B.S bs.rakshana2018@vitstudent.ac.in

Anahitaa R anahitaa.radhakrishnan2018@vitstudent.ac.in

Abstract

Some of the socio-economic issues encountered today are boosted by the prevalence of a gruesome
pandemic. The spread of a rather complex disease—COVID-19—has resulted in a collapse of social life,
health, economy and just general well-being of man. The adverse effects of the pandemic have
devastating consequences on our world and our only hope apart from a hypothetical cure for the disease
would be measures to understand its propagation and bring in effective measures to control it. This paper
analyses the role of Cellular Automata in modelling the spread of COVID -19 epidemic. Possible
solutions and perceptions regarding dynamics, trends, dependent factors, immunity, etc. have been
addressed and elucidated for better understanding. Furthermore, methods to improve and features to
consider for future works have also been presented.

1. Introduction
The spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is believed to have originated from Wuhan in China, has wreaked
havoc in our world due to its inexorable communicability and the corollary deterioration in overall health
and well-being of infected and recovered individuals, with no actual cure available yet to eradicate the
disease. This coronavirus causes a disease called ‘Covid’ in human beings and affects certain animals too.
Covid causes a plethora of symptoms very similar to that of a common cold accompanied with a fever,
but much more severe. Another worrisome fact to consider is the incubation period of the virus—the
infected individual exhibits symptoms of the disease long after the invasion and multiplication of the
virus within the host (approximately a fortnight), increasing the probability of unintentional transmission
of the virus to other healthy individuals as the unsuspecting host carries on with their mundane activities.
This means that the transmission of this disease cannot be tracked efficiently and the situation can become
grave very quickly. Exhaustion and saturation of human and medical resources respectively due to a
surfeit of patients as a consequence of exponential increase in infected individuals is the main concern of
healthcare authorities of all the nations affected by the pandemic. Due to this, untreated patients may face
severe health-related repercussions and in the worst-case scenario, cause unnecessary and avoidable
deaths. Several nations impose restrictions, quarantine and lockdowns across different regions to curb the
rate of transmission in hopes of flattening the curve along the ‘Medical Resources Vs Covid Patients’
plot, hopeful that eventually the curve would touch ‘0’.

A cellular automaton is an assembly of adjoining objects called ‘cells’, spread out over ‘n’ dimensions.
The state of each of these cells is determined by a mathematical function that takes into consideration the
previous states of their respective adjacent cells. The mathematical functions may be different and altered
according to needs to simulate and analyze patterns. Cellular automata can belong to different
dimensions. The most common dimensions worked with are 1D and 2D. With the incorporation of
complex mathematics, 3D cellular automata can also be designed and worked with.

This paper aims at thoroughly analyzing different types of cellular automata, the applications and degree
of usefulness of these automata in studying, simulating and predicting Covid pandemic wave patterns,
giving us a better perspective regarding the major factors which influence the spread of COVID - 19. This
helps us gain answers to questions regarding how the ongoing pandemic can be controlled, how
improving immunity can be a curbing factor and how else cellular automata can be used in the fields of
epidemiology and pharmacology to help come up with a plausible solution.

Cellular Automaton enables to simulate both the spatial and temporal growth of infectious diseases. This
helps policy makers with useful insights to identify critical aspects of the disease spread. The presently
vital COVID- 19 pandemic has influenced scholars to study the spread of epidemics using computational
techniques. Understanding the structure of different networks in a community can help simulate models
for the spread of illness. This will be useful for governmental organizations to anticipate transmission
patterns of an epidemic. Simulations of various control measures under different scenarios built on a
probabilistic network can help identify the most influential factor in the pandemic prevention and control.
Infectious disease dynamic models like SIRs, SEIRs, SIES, SIERS can be configured to better consider
randomness in the transmission of coronavirus, the COVID - 19 outbreak. The SEIR model can be used
to analyze asymptomatic infections as they are difficult to detect. The fight against COVID -19 has been
dealt with using two strategies. The first includes following control measures like enforcing lockdown
and social distancing to contain its spread. The second strategy is developing Herd Immunity which is
the unconstrained transmission of the virus so that a large section of the population can develop
immunity. Herd Immunity can be achieved by vaccination or developing immunity by getting cured after
infection of the Virus.The Spread of COVID - 19 can be easily controlled by tracking social contact
networks. CA simulations can include both disease specific and region specific parameters which can be
effectively used to study the dynamics of the spread.

2. CA For Modeling Bilogical Systems

Spread of epidemics is a complex subject to understand and quite difficult to simulate accurately.
Therefore, several CA models which may differ mathematically can be compared to study regular and
patch-movement based spread of diseases[1].Various epidemiology models such as SEIS with various
influential parameters such as contact rate, activation rate and curing rate can be analyzed with the help of
suitable automata[2] with the von Neumann neighborhood. Multilevel simulators[3] built upon
hierarchical CAs serve to be of notable use in epidemiology as well. High speed low cost pattern
classifiers built around CAs have gained tremendous amounts of attention, as they can be incorporated in
any field of research (such as medicine, economics, etc). A particular category of CA, termed as Multiple
Attractor Cellular Automata (MACA),[4] has been developed by Genetic Algorithm (GA) formulation to
carry out the task of pattern classification. The fluidity of the model is quite noteworthy. Competitive
growths [5] can be modelled and explained using CAs too. For instance, the growth and succession
process of underwater species such as P. pectinatus and C. aspera may be studied in a water body that has
been completely or partially eutrophicated.Biofilm growth [6] and bioreactors with biofilm—core
research subjects in microbiology—could be efficiently modeled with the help of a 2D automaton, where
the mathematical model takes into account substrate diffusion, its utilization, growth and displacement of
microorganisms and death of microorganisms. The 1D density and porosity distributions obtained
allowed for quantitative comparisons to be performed for the biofilm structure.

Transmittable diseases [7] are a major cause of human deaths today. The study of trends pertaining to
development of a disease and spread provides a great basis in determining ways for prevention and
regulation of the spread of infectious diseases.This paper examines an epidemic spread model
Susceptible-Latent-Infected-Recovered-Dead-Susceptible (SLIRDS) based on cellular automata. Various
factors like literacy rates, economic development and characteristics of a population in an area are also
taken into account to study the transmission of infectious disease. The aspect of noise or randomness[8] in
the study of complex population patterns is often overlooked. Sun et al., present an epidemic model
utilizing cellular automation with noise and explored the dual role of noise on disease spread i.e., to cause
the emergence and disappearance of the disease. The effect of significant levels of noise can cause the
extinction of disease in a resonant manner.The outcome acquired indicate that noise plays immensely in
the spread of the disease state, which can suggest to prevent, and in due course eliminate,
disease.Mosquito-transmitted diseases[9] like chikungunya, yellow fever, dengue and malaria are a
problem in tropical countries. Pereira et al., study the dengue using population modelled by Cellular
Automata. This paper consists of a flexible model for dengue spread with one, two or three different
serotypes existing together in the same population.The problem of precise grouping of medical images
from various modalities for effective content- based retrieval [10] is studied. Klyeko et al., propose the
solution positioned on the principles of hyper-dimensional computing jointly with the usage of cellular
automata (CA).

Cellular Automata has become a favourable tool in the Pharmaceutical industry[11] especially in the
branch of Drug Dissolution System (DDS) modelling due to its ability to simulate a wide range of
reactions at small levels. Marija et al., present various parallelization techniques to enhance the working
of CA models for intricate drug formulations. One of the main constituent determining Drug Dissolution
pertains to the thickness of physical coating compared to the central sphere of drug.The uncoverings of
the speed up analysis presented in the paper using MPI, Openmp and Hybrid approaches is useful in
enabling the integration of various relations at small-scale allowing for configuring solution.An
electrocardiographic (ECG) signal [12] is a digital signal which indicate the electrical activity of the heart
over a period of time. Vazquez presents digital architectures based on chaotic cellular automata for
Compressed Sensing (CS) of electrocardiographic (ECG) signals.

3. CA For Modeling COVID-19

3.1 One-dimensional Cellular Automata

Some of the primary objectives of [13] include: developing a new 1D hybrid cellular automata
classifier to predict trends of several covid hotspots in India, handling various parameters (such as
infection control, virus reproduction and spread rate), etc. The accuracy reported in this paper is
approximately 91.5%, which is higher compared to other ML-based approaches like SVM, K-means,
Decision-tree, etc. It proved to be unique, robust, flexible and efficient. This approach can be utilized by
administrative authorities in order to follow and monitor the rising hotspots in a nation. The predictions
seemed to be congruent with real data observed.

3.2 Two-dimensional Cellular Automata

A cellular automaton consists of regular cells or ‘grids’, each containing a ‘state’. In 2D CAs, the
dimension may be mxn, where m, n>=2. The grid can be any finite number of dimensions where each
cell’s state changes in an iterative manner according to certain rules, which determine the consequent
state based on the current state of the neighboring cells. The current state of a particular cell and its eight
other adjacent cells influence the rules associated to determine the next state of a particular cell in 2D
CA. The rules that govern the automaton are usually static, unless the automaton is stochastic. Typically,
the cells may possess 2 states (on and off), sometimes more than that but never less. They may be
classified into four different classes: class 1 (homogenous), class 2(homogenous with some randomness),
class 3(pseudo-random) and class 4(complex). The next state of any cell in a linear CA can be determined
by XOR operation of the states of its adjacent cells affiliated with the rule. If a different rule is practised
for all the cells of m rows and n columns included in a particular 2D cellular automata configuration, it
is called hybrid. Otherwise, the CA is known as uniform.

Kermack and McKendrick developed an epidemic model known as the SIR model to simulate
transmission of diseases in 1920. This model symbolizes the changes in the number of individuals
susceptible (S), infected (I), and recovered (R) within the selected population. This system serves as a
great mechanism for Medical Researchers, and Government personnel to gain insights into the
transmission of diseases, control measures and interaction of people.

Artificial Intelligence can be employed to resolve the issues of predicting scale, dynamics, sensitivity of
outbreak to mitigation measures undertaken to combat an epidemic. This paper [14] deals with the usage
of 2D cellular automata in order to achieve this by simulating the spread of COVID-19 disease. CA-based
numerical framework helps create a comprehensive data. The SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious,
and Recovered) model has been utilized to judge the epidemic trends in countries such as Spain, France
and Poland with the help of new parameters. The observations recorded the impact of structure and
actions of the population on vital parameters such as mortality and infection rates. Empirical data revealed
the correlation between age of infected people and the level of mortality, so it was taken into
consideration for the system probability of death which is dependent on age demographics of the
populations under analysis. One per two days contact of infectious people apparently leads to infection of
over three different individuals. Ideal response time during the initial tenure of the pandemic was also
analyzed and taken as basis for introducing appropriate actions.A 2D cellular automaton built based on
the SI model used in epidemiology is utilized to select the most desirable testing frequency [15]and
diagnose COVID in order to effectively isolate individuals in an attempt to curb the spread of the
pandemic. The combination of model parameters seems to represent cost-efficient intervention compared
to others and it has proved that small-scale interventions are the best options as local communities can
self-organize testing and effectively monitor infected cases.

The SIER model is implemented using 2D Cellular Automata in [16] to simulate the spread of a disease
after the public health interventions. There were several limitations encountered in this study, but the CA
efficiently predicted simulated results despite impedance.In order to simulate and analyze epidemic
evolution along with the propagation of COVID-19, [17] uses a 2D cellular automaton model. A simple
community with parameters such as sex ratio, population movement, age demographics, immunity,
treatment period, etc. has been considered to validate the model. Dai et al., proposed a model based on
the SIR model. The individual states include susceptible (S), self-isolated (Si), infected (I), recovered (R),
confirmed (C), hospitalized (H), and dead (D). Asymptomatic patient plays a crucial role in SARS-CoV2
infections so a parameter is established to include the possibility of becoming an asymptomatic patient.
COVID-19 data from NYC and Iowa were used so as to achieve validation for the proposed model. The
outcome of comparisons of NYC’s real time data and simulated numbers showed that the curves of
hospitalized and dead individuals were similar to the trend of the daily confirmed. However, the peak
value of the hospitalized and dead groups was way less than that of the confirmed, which reports that
most infected individuals can recover without any assistance. Downward trend was recorded with the
simulated number of daily confirmed in NYC. The daily confirmed cases are reduced constantly. The
second simulation case about the epidemic outbreak in the city of Iowa recorded an increase with the
daily confirmed cases unlike NYC. Since, there are different in COVID 19 restrictions in different states
which results in different outcomes. NYC adopted prevention measures more promptly than Iowa. The
yielded results supported the claim that synergistic action of self-isolation and diagnostic testing can be
effective in preventing transmission of diseases with pandemic potential. The tests performed under
longer intervals with larger scale prove to yield better results than when carried out at shorter intervals
and small scale.

Yaroslav et al., recommend ways [18] to enhance the interaction rules of agents in the SIR model of
epidemiology with 2D CA. The modelling of spatial distribution of covid is done in a single location with
individual regions that interact with one another by transport, considering components such as shops,
educational institutions, gyms, places of worship, etc. Impact of restrictions, quarantine, mask regime,
incubation period, etc are taken into consideration to assess the situation. Calculations provide insight
regarding the accurate matching of the forecast model with real data. The responsiveness of the model to
different protocols to contain infection was deconstructed, and both the absolute and complex
effectiveness of these protocols were determined. Restrictions on the work of shops, places of worship
and adhering to strict quarantine and sensibly obeying social distancing protocols in places such as parks
prove to be effective.

As asymptomatic infections are transmissible and hard to be noticed, the authors [19] established an SEIR
model for those diagnosed with asymptomatic infections. Distribution of asymptomatic infections is
simulated using the data from the Beijing Municipal Health Commission and integrated with the 4 states
of cellular automaton model which are susceptible, infected, asymptomatic, and recovering. China
implemented rigid measures such as “home order” 10 days after the epidemic breakout. The simulations
exhibited a notable decline in the prevalence of asymptomatic infections after the “home order” .

Zhou et al., implemented a dynamic CA - SEIR model [20] with different isolation rates. It is inferred that
greater the ratio of isolation, lower the number of individuals affected . As proof, the city of Wuhan
closed down all means of public transport on 23rd January, 2020 which significantly led to the surge in
the isolation ratio. The number of infected individuals became stable after a 10 day buffer period and
then slowly diminished, which showed that strict implementation of Lockdowns and traffic restrictions
yielded a positive effect on curbing the transmission of the virus. Also, the proposed model was used to
simulate conditions with different contact numbers. As it is possible for a large number of susceptible
people to be infected by the asymptomatic patients when they gather for large festivals. To illustrate, there
was a major outbreak among the church worshippers that began in the city of Daegu, South Korea on
February 18 after a church worshipper was identified to be infected with COVID-19. This resulted in
more than 6,000 infected cases confirmed in the next two weeks. In the beginning of the outbreak, South
Korea did not regulate domestic mobility and people gathered in large numbers for various events.
Effective isolation and quarantine measures will need to be implemented without any further delay in
such cases to curb the transmission. The number of infected people before carrying out the preventive
measures for the pandemic can also be used to ascertain the initial transmission rate of the pandemic. The
effect of medical resources such as isolation beds and the number of medical workforce plays a direct
role as to whether the confirmed cases are diagnosed and treated effectively. At the beginning of the
COVID -19 outbreak, the medical resources in Hubei province faced a severe shortage of medical
resources, and could not handle the outbreak. However, the Chinese government rapidly built hospitals
and restocked the medical resources to accommodate more patients. This succeeded in slowing down the
infection rate.

The impact of control measures on pandemic regulation have been studied in [21], where a non-linear
cellular automaton with hybrid rules is employed to aid this study. This model has proved to be better
than deep learning models—predicting infections, recoveries, deaths, etc. – with an accuracy of about
78.8% on its own. Such predictions enable the respective governing bodies of healthcare sectors to plan
accordingly.

3.3. Probabilistic Cellular Automata / Stochastic Cellular Automata:

Stochastic or Probabilistic cellular automaton is a locally interacting Markov Chain, also known as a
random cellular automaton. It is a dynamic system where each state is discrete. The state of each cell is
updated according to some simple homogenous rule. The new states are chosen according to probability
distributions. Some examples of PCA include Majority cellular automaton which works on Toom’s rule,
Cellular Potts model, Non-Markovian generalization, etc. In the transition rules, randomness is involved
to a certain degree in PCAs and the outcome is the corresponding stationary distribution. The rules which
govern the automaton change accordingly in PCA.

PCA has been used in [22] in order to analyze the impact of social isolation on the population of Brazil,
simulate the number of casualties due to COVID-19 and saturation of hospital resources, and analyze
healthcare system responses to the crisis. The SIER (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed) model has
been elucidated in terms of PCA with the help of ordinary differential equations to trace the transmission
of COVID-19. This approach can be used to estimate the impact on society for a myriad of scenarios.
According to the analysis, if social distancing and isolation procedures increased from 40 to 50% in
Brazil, it would suffice to purchase 150 ICU and mechanical ventilators per day to keep up with the
requirements of the healthcare system. Furthermore, premature relaxations of curfew showed to be
detrimental, as they would inevitably lead to subsequent waves of contamination.

Similarly, PCA is used in [23] to study the impact of strict measures to curb the effects of the spread of
the pandemic using a data-driven approach on an epidemiology model. This provides spatial and temporal
insight, as the transitions are based on several factors such as chronology, symptoms, pathogenesis,
transmissivity, etc. Epidemic dynamics are studied for various countries using this model. Tunable
parameters are linked with other practical factors such as population density, testing efficiency, general
immunity, health-care facility, awareness among the public, etc. The study results in the findings of firm
ground for the changes in distribution (peak position, sharpness of rise, lifetime of epidemic, asymmetric
long-tailed fall etc.) driven by its parameters.
In this research [24], Brazilian dataset was used and the simulation model was implemented to simulate
the pandemic, taking into due consideration the mutation rate of Sars-CoV-2 virus and vaccination rate of
individuals yet unaffected. The study considered a vaccine with an efficiency of 50%. High mutation rates
can result in more deaths and elongation of the pandemic period. Nevertheless, two positive outcomes
have been observed: vaccination reduces the number of mutations and the number of deaths due to covid.
A direct relationship between the number of successful mutations and the number of death cases has been
established.

Supplying this stochastic model with demographic elements such as age ratio, prior health conditions if
any can help in simulating a robust model to predict similar outbreaks in the future. Joydeep et al.,
present a predictive model [25] to illustrate the effect of dependent population in terms of demography
dynamics on the spread of disease. The proposed model is also validated with the case of coronavirus
spread in New York State and was found to agree with the real data. The predictions also showed that an
extension of lockdown likely upto 180 days can notably reduce the menace of a possible second wave.

Saumyak et al., use two simulations[26] to model the pandemic - a refined SIR model and a stochastic
CA to comprehend the ongoing crisis. One of the key outcomes inferred from this study is the
importance of time dependence of rate of infection. For instance, the rate of transmission is always high
in the beginning as the reason for the spread is often unknown but decreases as awareness increases
among the people. Measures such as quarantine and social distancing to limit the spread of the disease
turned out to be effective in this study. Also, the longer the incubation period of the virus, the higher is
the chance for an individual to be asymptomatic. An asymptomatic individual can pose a great threat to
the susceptible population.

In order to study the spread of SARS-CoV-2 focusing on the symptomatic and asymptomatic cases during
the infection, Monteiro et al., devised a model [27] using probabilistic cellular automata to he study of
long-term behavior of this transmissible infection.

The knowledge about possible disease transfer and identification of vulnerable groups of population is
essential. Gwizdałła studies [28] two problems of creating a graph for simulating communities and
modeling the illness transmission. This paper uses the Barabasi-Albert (BA) model to observe graphs
illustrating growth of networks in a community. The Epidemic curves are presented on the number of
recovered, new cases and examination of reducing contact among the people in a community. It is
imperative to find the exchange of interaction between infected and susceptible to model the transmission
of illness. Three types of graphs are used (i) the BA graph (ii) a graph constructed on allotment to one of
four groups with feigned sizes (iii) a graph constructed on allotment to one of 16 groups with sizes based
on the number of inhabitants in Lodz, a city in Poland. The probability of meeting, as we cannot fall
sick without transfer of pathogens and the probability of infection is presented as the main basis for
construction of the model in this paper. This paper specifies the SEIR model by involving realistic times
in which an individual stays exposed to the virus or infectious to others in a community. According to
Tomasz's opinion, the most significant property of the proposed model is its ability to include stochastic
character of the disease transmission as this allows for individualizing the features to every possible
contact in a network. This will be useful in deciding the factors involved in the disease spread between
two individuals. The proposed model also permits various types of interventions such as new likely
diseases. The results of procedures such as vaccination and quarantines can be easily simulated which can
aid the government in the decision making process to curb the spread. Forecast of the epidemic duration
can also be estimated using the suggested model.

The authors in [29] focus on the study that time of herd immunity evolution had on people, by taking into
consideration several vulnerables and resilience. Studies have found that the slower attainment of herd
immunity is relatively less fatal compared to rapid immunization. Slow progress towards attainment of
herd immunity is hindered by several intervening factors whose impact can be studied much more in
detail with the help of PCA. The propagation dynamics of the disease exhibit essential similarities with
that of a complex chemical reaction, both of which rely upon time dependence. SIR model is used to
examine the repercussions of achieving herd immunity without vaccine or drugs in the pandemic context.
It can be concluded that delayed attainment of immunity saturation is relatively less fatal, based on the
observation of non-linear trends in the dependence of the cured and dead population on the early
population of vulnerables.

Spatial Markov-Chain CA model has been made use of in [30] to track the spread of COVID-19 virus
and two methods for parameter estimation. Networking topologies are considered for the progression
mapping of epidemics using this model, by taking each individual on a grid and using stochastic
principles to find the transitions between different states. Maximum likelihood estimation and Bayesian
estimation methods were used on simulated data to estimate parameters, which were found to be
relatively accurate. Algorithms called Metropolis Hastings algorithm and the Metropolis-Adjusted
Langevin algorithm (MALA) were used too. An important finding was that the recovery rate parameter µ
is crucial for determining the number of susceptible, recovered and dead people, as long as the infection
probability rate λg was larger than 0.3 (relative error of λg was generally in the range of 1-3%).

Designing a data-driven, spatial framework which can be utilized to estimate parameters pertinent to the
spread of the pandemic is the main goal of [31], using PCA to model the infection dynamics and driving
factors of the spread of pandemics. In order to determine propagation parameters, a Sequential Genetic
algorithm is used and a sequential genetic algorithm is used to optimize the parameters of the cellular
automaton. This approach is extremely flexible and robust, enabling estimation of time trajectories of
epidemics. The final observations recorded predictions extremely congruent with observed trends. It can
be further enhanced with the aid of demographic and socio-economic features.

3.4 Lattice Gas CA

Lattice gas Cellular Automaton—the precursor form of the Lattice Boltzman methods—is a specific form
of CA which is widely used to simulate fluid flows. This cellular automaton consists of a lattice with a
certain number of states or particles which travel with certain velocities. The simulation is performed with
the progression of each discrete time step, where the state of the particle is determined by relevant
mathematical formulae. The particle may be in the ‘propagation’ state or ‘collision’ state. In the
propagation state, movements are determined by the velocities of particles. There exists a principle called
the ‘exclusion principle’, which prevents two particles from travelling along the same link with the same
velocity at the same time, although it must be noted that two particles can travel along the same link in
opposite directions. Similarly, collision handling techniques determine what happens to the particles after
they collide with one another i.e., reach the same site at the same time, while maintaining mass
conservation and total momentum. A pseudo-random process can choose a random output in case of
several possibilities for a given collision condition. Hexagonal model and HPP square model may be used
to implement the Lattice Gas CA and these individual models have their own fair share of advantages and
disadvantages, thus necessitating experts to choose best suited models accordingly. For instance, the HPP
model does not facilitate diagonal movement of particles, making it an-isotropic and lacking rotational
invariance. The Hexagonal model on the other hand lacks Galilean invariance and has statistical noise. It
is also rather difficult to expand the model to solve 3D problems which may require more dimensions and
sufficient symmetrical grid.

Using cellular automata, a lattice model is designed to observe the spread of the epidemic. The driving
algorithm of the cellular automaton is framed in such a way that it can capture the effects of getting
infected despite having recovered from the illness. In [32], the incubation period has also been taken into
account. Kermack-McKendrick SIR model is clubbed with cellular automata to produce the desired
results and glean insightful observations from it. Rate of growth of the infection over the space is
provided. Growth of correlations as a function of length can be used. The observations include a giant
growing cluster of infected people, congruent with observations made in real life and the circular front of
the infected cluster moves linearly in time. The effects of medication have also been incorporated with the
model too and agree quite well in previously proposed models of variants of the KM model.

Léon[33] has made use of the Lattice-gas cellular automaton model to simulate the spread of the COVID-
19 in Chilean cities. This model includes a mobility indicator to elucidate actuality of the Chilean cities
with respect to the quarantine system and normal mobility of the population. The study indicated that the
strategy of partial quarantines to combat the spread was inadequate to control the development of the
pandemic. It is likely that the implementation of sanitary barriers was actually passable by the infected
individual and therefore, an outbreak occurs in the virus-free zone when an individual leaves the outbreak
zone.

Salcido [34] proposed a model to study the COVID -19 spread in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area
(MCMA). Influence of people’s mobility on the growth of the epidemic, number of infected individuals,
death rate and duration of the epidemic was analyzed and predicted using the model.All particles are
assumed to represent the susceptible population and were spread randomly covering the lattice by 4.5
particles per site. A small amount of Infectious people (0.001 particles per site) is dispersed at random in
the lattice. Salcido’s approach on the model can help formulate policies to control the pandemic.
3.5 Fuzzy CA

Generally, cellular automata are discrete. Fuzzy cellular automata are continuous. The rules which govern
the CA are fuzzified rules of a normal Boolean CA. Random, smoothing or homogenous background may
be used for the initial fuzziness of background. Fuzzy behavior usually destroys Boolean values as all
values become homogeneous or heterogeneous fuzzy. Different fuzzified rules produce a variety of
space-time patterns. Space-time patterns can be generally classified as static, periodic, complex or
chaotic. Fuzzy cellular automaton is a sharper tool specifically used to detect the properties associated
with ‘chaotic behaviour’ of patterns. It can also be used to analyse complex dynamics of the shifting
rules. The most important use of fuzzy CA is to determine spatial distribution and temporal change, and
estimate changes in environment.

Sumita et al., employs measurable variables [35] and parameters by means of Crisp Cellular Automata
model. Uncertainty evolved due to impropriety is called fuzzy uncertainty and it can be eliminated with
the usage of Fuzzy CA. The discrete dynamical system where the measurements of parameters are
incorrectly defined are modelled by Fuzzy Difference Equations or Fuzzy Cellular Automata. Fuzzy CA
is used for the dynamic system representing MERS and COVID-19 virus spread. In this experiment, a
moderately large time period is divided into short equal intervals of time. Growth of the number of
infected people is designed by the Fuzzy CA in each of the time intervals. Alternate usage of Fuzzy CA
and temporally hybrid Fuzzy CA seemed to explain the model better.

3.6 Kinetic Monte Carlo CA

This type of cellular automaton is used to simulate time evolution for naturally-occurring processes.
These automata contain transition rates which usually act as rules. KMC may be of two types: Rejection-
free KMC—where the rates are taken into consideration for a more complex mathematical approach—
and Rejection KMC, where the latter is standard. Monte Carlo algorithm, which forms the basis for this
specific kind of CA, solves problems through the use of random input. It is widely used in probability-
dependent problems and relies solely on randomness to do so. These CA work best when used to simulate
problems pertaining to kinematics—associated with motion or movements—like surface adsorption,
diffusion, material growth, etc.

Distribution of Inherent susceptibility[36][37] which largely depends on the immunity of an individual

and external infectivity is often inadequately addressed in the development of an infectious
disease.Mukherjee, S. et al., have resolved this issue by performing Kinetic Monte Carlo Cellular
Automata (KMC-CA) simulations. This is a significant improvement over the naive SIR model to
simulate a more realistic version of the Pandemic.

4. Future Work

Based on the discussions made in this paper, more strategies can be explored to assist better decision-
making. It is necessary to study the spread of infection based on the data analysis to frame feasible
policies. Including new parameters will allow for the analysis of various scenarios for different diseases
which will aid decision-makers in determining the critical factors for disease control. It is apparent over
the last few months that the spread of the COVID-19 virus depends on several factors that are difficult to
contain. Not only should we consider mitigation measures, but also medical resources such as vaccines,
number of available beds to accommodate infected patients in order to increase the model’s accuracy.
Further factors like ventilation and indoor environments could be beneficial for better assessment of the
virus transmission.

5. Conclusion

Some of the papers discussed previously talk about the measures that are used to regulate the spread of
covid-19. The impact of various social restrictions, herd immunity, driving factors of the pandemic, etc.
have also been analysed thoroughly to get a better idea of how the pandemic affects human beings across
different parts of the world, thereby enabling us to come up with worthwhile solutions for this prevalent
issue. The pandemic caused by the Sars-CoV-2 virus and its variants has been modelled and simulated,
and its dynamics elucidated after further studies. Asymptomatic individuals have also been considered in
the equation of modelling. Trends across various regions and suggestions for effective control measures
have also been provided as a result of the studies conducted. Several factors which lead to uncertainty
have also either been eliminated or made lucid. Several future possibilities considering the prevailing
aspects have also been discussed. Although the papers discussed cover most of the aspects, there are
certain limitations too which could be eliminated in future works and optimizations. Limited availability
of data, non-homogenous nature of the pandemic, factors susceptible to variations according to
geographical constraints are some to be taken into due consideration. Once these challenges are
overcome, it would open up many more options and tactics to solve issues pertaining to the pandemic.

REFERENCES

1. Senthil Athithan, Vidya Prasad Shukla, Sangappa Ramachandra Biradar, "Dynamic

Cellular Automata Based Epidemic Spread Model for Population in Patches with
Movement", Journal of Computational Environmental Sciences, vol. 2014, Article ID 518053,
8 pages, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/518053
2. J. Ilnytskyi, P. Pikuta, H. Ilnytskyi, Stationary states and spatial patterning in the cellular
automaton SEIS epidemiology model, Physica A (2018),
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2018.06.001
3. Monica Dascalu, Gheorghe Stefan, Adrian Zafiu, and Anca Plavitu. 2011. Applications of
multilevel cellular automata in epidemiology. In Proceedings of the 13th WSEAS
international conference on Automatic control, modelling & simulation (ACMOS'11).
World Scientific and Engineering Academy and Society (WSEAS), Stevens Point,
Wisconsin, USA, 439–444.
4. Pradipta Maji, Chandrama Shaw, Niloy Ganguly, Biplab K. Sikdar, and P. Pal Chaudhuri.
2003. Theory and Application of Cellular Automata For Pattern Classification. Fundam.
Inf. 58, 3–4 (August 2003), 321–354.
5. Chen, Q., A. Mynett and A. Minns. “Application of cellular automata to modelling
competitive growths of two underwater species Chara aspera and Potamogeton pectinatus
in Lake Veluwe.” Ecological Modelling 147 (2002): 253-265.
6. Skoneczny, Szymon. "Cellular-automata based modeling of heterogeneous biofilm growth
for microbiological processes with various kinetic models." Chemical and Process
Engineering 40.2 (2019): 145-155.
7. Bin S, Sun G, Chen C-C. Spread of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis of Different
Factors on Spread of Infectious Disease Based on Cellular Automata. International Journal
of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2019; 16(23):4683.
https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph16234683
8. Sun, GQ., Jin, Z., Song, LP. et al. Phase transition in spatial epidemics using cellular
automata with noise. Ecol Res 26, 333–340 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11284-010-0789-9
9. F.M. Pereira, P.H. Schimit, Dengue fever spreading based on probabilistic cellular
automata with two lattices, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 499 (2018)
75–87, doi:10.1016/j.physa.2018.01.029.
10. D. Kleyko, S. Khan, E. Osipov and S. Yong, "Modality classification of medical images with
distributed representations based on cellular automata reservoir computing," 2017 IEEE
14th International Symposium on Biomedical Imaging (ISBI 2017), 2017, pp. 1053-1056,
doi: 10.1109/ISBI.2017.7950697.
11. Bezbradica, Marija & Crane, Martin & Ruskin, Heather. (2016). Applications of High
Performance Algorithms to Large Scale Cellular Automata Frameworks Used in
Pharmaceutical Modelling. Journal of cellular automata. 11. 21-45.
12. S. D. Á. Vázquez, D. E. T. Romero and M. S. Ramírez, "Digital architectures based on
chaotic cellular automata for compressed sensing of electrocardiographic (ECG) signals,"
2018 IEEE International Autumn Meeting on Power, Electronics and Computing
(ROPEC), 2018, pp. 1-6, doi: 10.1109/ROPEC.2018.8661405.
13. Pokkuluri Kiran Sree and Smt. S. S. S. N Usha Devi. N, “COVID-19 Hotspot Trend
Prediction Using Hybrid Cellular Automata in India ”, Engineering Science & Technology,
vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 54-60, Dec. 2020.
14. Medrek, M, and Z Pastuszak. “Numerical simulation of the novel coronavirus spreading.”
Expert systems with applications vol. 166 (2021): 114109. doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2020.114109
15. Lugo, Igor & Alatriste Contreras, Martha. (2020). Intervention strategies with 2D cellular
automata for testing SARS-CoV-2 and reopening the economy. 10.21203/rs.3.rs-40739/v1.
16. Wang, SiYou & Fang, Hui & Ma, ZhiHong & Wang, XiuFen. (2020). Forecasting the 2019-
ncov Epidemic in Wuhan by SEIR and Cellular Automata Model. Journal of Physics:
Conference Series. 1533. 042065. 10.1088/1742-6596/1533/4/042065.
17. Dai J, Zhai C, Ai J, Ma J, Wang J, Sun W. Modeling the Spread of Epidemics Based on
Cellular Automata. Processes. 2021; 9(1):55. https://doi.org/10.3390/pr9010055
18. Vyklyuk, Yaroslav et al. “Modeling and analysis of different scenarios for the spread of
COVID-19 by using the modified multi-agent systems - Evidence from the selected
countries.” Results in physics vol. 20 (2021): 103662. doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103662
19. Xiao, Meng, Qiyuan Zhan, and Yanqing Li. "Research on Combating Epidemics based on
Differential Equations and Cellular Automata." Journal of Physics: Conference Series. Vol.
1865. No. 4. IOP Publishing, 2021.
20. Zhou, Yimin et al. “The global COVID-19 pandemic at a crossroads: relevant
countermeasures and ways ahead.” Journal of thoracic disease vol. 12,10 (2020): 5739-5755.
doi:10.21037/jtd-20-1315
21. Pokkuluri, K. S. ., & Devi Nedunuri, S. U. . (2020). A Novel Cellular Automata Classifier
for COVID-19 Prediction. Journal of Health Sciences, 10(1), 34–38.
22. Schimit, P H T. “A model based on cellular automata to estimate the social isolation impact
on COVID-19 spreading in Brazil.” Computer methods and programs in biomedicine vol. 200
(2021): 105832. doi:10.1016/j.cmpb.2020.105832
23. Ghosh, S., Bhattacharya, S. Computational Model on COVID-19 Pandemic Using
Probabilistic Cellular Automata. SN COMPUT. SCI. 2, 230 (2021).
https://doi.org/10.1007/s42979-021-00619-3
24. Schimit, Pedro, An Epidemiological Model to Discuss the Mutation of the Virus SARS-
CoV-2 and the Vaccination Rate (March 10, 2021). Available at SSRN:
https://ssrn.com/abstract=3801658
25. Munshi, Joydeep et al. “Spatiotemporal dynamics in demography-sensitive disease
transmission: COVID-19 spread in NY as a case study.” arXiv: Populations and Evolution
(2020): n. pag.
26. Mukherjee, Saumyak & Mondal, Sayantan & Bagchi, Biman. (2020). Dynamical Theory
and Cellular Automata Simulations of Pandemic Spread: Understanding Different
Temporal Patterns of Infections.
27. Monteiro, L.H.A. et al. “On the spread of SARS-CoV-2 under quarantine: A study based on
probabilistic cellular automaton.” Ecological Complexity vol. 44 (2020): 100879.
doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2020.100879
28. Gwizdałła, Tomasz. “Viral disease spreading in grouped population.” Computer methods
and programs in biomedicine vol. 197 (2020): 105715. doi:10.1016/j.cmpb.2020.105715
29. Mondal, Sayantan et al. “Mathematical modeling and cellular automata simulation of
infectious disease dynamics: Applications to the understanding of herd immunity.” The
Journal of chemical physics vol. 153,11 (2020): 114119. doi:10.1063/5.0018807
30. Lu, Jenny. "A Spatial Markov Chain Cellular Automata Model for the Spread of the
COVID-19 virus: Including parameter estimation." (2020).
31. Ghosh, Sayantari and Saumik Bhattacharya. “A data-driven understanding of COVID-19
dynamics using sequential genetic algorithm based probabilistic cellular automata.” Applied
Soft Computing 96 (2020): 106692 - 106692.
32. Datta, Agniva & Acharyya, Muktish. (2021). Modelling the Spread of an Epidemic in
Presence of Vaccination using Cellular Automata.
33. León A. Study of the effectiveness of partial quarantines applied to control the spread of the
Covid-19 virus. medRxiv; 2021. DOI: 10.1101/2021.04.03.21254727.
34. Salcido, Alejandro. (2021). A Lattice Gas Model for Infection Spreading: Application to the
COVID-19 Pandemic in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area. Results in Physics. 20C.
103758. 10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103758.
35. Basu, Sumita & Ghosh, Sreeya. (2020). Fuzzy Cellular Automata Model for Discrete
Dynamical System Representing Spread of MERS and COVID-19 Virus. 10.1007/978-981-
15-8097-0_11.
36. Mukherjee, Saumyak & Mondal, Sayantan & Bagchi, Biman. (2020). Origin of Multiple
Infection Waves in a Pandemic: Effects of Inherent Susceptibility and External Infectivity
Distributions.
37. Mukherjee, S. et al. “Persistence of a pandemic in the presence of susceptibility and
infectivity distributions in a population: Mathematical model.” medRxiv (2021).