Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Teehankee 2016 - Mamasapano
Teehankee 2016 - Mamasapano
Julio C. Teehankee
To cite this article: Julio C. Teehankee (2016): The Philippines in 2015: the calm before the
political storm, Philippine Political Science Journal
Introduction
The visit of Pope Francis to the Philippines was an auspicious beginning for 2015. It was only
the fourth time that a sitting pontiff has visited the third largest Catholic country in the
world.1 Less than two years into his papacy, Pope Francis has eschewed the worldly trappings
of his office and articulated progressive views on Church-related issues such as the care of
the poor and marginalized (Gutierrez 2015).
Previous papal visits had delicately touched on political issues despite the religious nature
of these events. In 1970, Pope Paul VI reminded President Ferdinand Marcos of Catholic-
inspired public policy amidst the government’s early implementation of its family planning
policy. Then the “halo effect” or the political influence of the papacy in this predominantly
Catholic country was first experienced during the papal visit of Pope John Paul II in 1981
when the pontiff denounced Marcos’s dictatorship in his presence. Marcos had lifted Martial
Law to coincide with the pope’s visit but continued exercising his authoritarian powers
(Gutierrez 2015).
In 2015, some political observers hoped that the visit of Pope Francis would result in a
“halo effect” and influence the choice of the next president in the upcoming 2016 elections
(Villacorta 2016). Similar to the previous papal visits, politics was not avoided as President
Benigno Aquino complained to the pope about local church leaders whom the president
accused of being critical of his administration but remaining silent about the alleged cor-
ruption of his predecessor. For his part, Pope Francis challenged everyone to reject any form
of corruption and work for the poor and all sectors of society.
Indeed, the papal visit from 15 to 19 January was a tremendous success as huge crowds
warmly welcomed the pope in Manila and in Tacloban (the province heavily damaged by
Typhoon Haiyan in 2014). Close to 6 million Filipinos attended his final outdoor mass at the
historic Luneta Park (Wyatt 2015).
Mamasapano incident
However, the “halo effect” brought about by the papal visit lasted for less than a week. On 25
January, a police operation led by Special Action Force (SAF) of the Philippine National Police
(PNP) codenamed “Oplan Exodus” was launched in Mamasapano, Maguindanao on the island
of Mindanao. Its objective was to capture or kill Malaysian terrorist Zulkifli bin Hir alias Marwan
and other Malaysian terrorists or high-ranking members of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom
Fighters (BIFF) – a breakaway faction of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The Aquino
government was in the midst of concluding a peace agreement with the secessionist MILF.
However, the poorly coordinated operation resulted in a free for all that led to the deaths of
44 SAF troopers, 18 from MILF and BIFF, and five civilians, as well as Marwan.2
President Benigno S. Aquino III admitted that former PNP chief, Director General Alan
Purisima, who was then under a six-month preventive suspension, ordered by the
Ombudsman due to graft charges, continued to advise him on the Oplan Exodus (Santos
2015). In the aftermath of the failed operation, there was speculation regarding its real
objective and the possible involvement of American military personnel in the gun battle
against the terrorists. After the findings of the government committee tasked with investi-
gating the incident were released on 17 September, Aquino averred, in a statement that he
delivered at Heroes Hall of the Malacañang, that it was the SAF troopers who killed Malaysian
terrorist Marwan in Mamasapano. Furthermore, he also debunked other narratives on who
actually eliminated the terrorist.3
(Legaspi 2016). According to Drilon, Congress was on its way to approving the BBL but the
political environment suddenly became “very toxic” due to the tragedy.
In the aftermath of the incident, Aquino suffered his lowest approval, trust, and net satis-
faction ratings since assuming the presidency amidst public outrage over the Mamasapano
incident. In the Pulse Asia Research’s March 2015 Ulat ng Bayan Survey, Aquino scored a 38%
national approval rating and 36% trust ratings, while in the Social Weather Station’s First Quarter
2015 Social Weather Survey, 47% of the respondents were satisfied with Aquino’s performance,
17% were undecided, and 36% were dissatisfied, resulting in a net satisfaction rating of +11.
Critics argued that the Mamasapano incident in addition to the dreadful handling of the
massive disaster caused by Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan) in 2013 turned Aquino into a lame
duck president and significantly diminished his power to act as a kingmaker in the 2016
presidential elections. Aquino himself admitted in an interview five days before he stepped
down that the Mamasapano incident was among the major disasters of his presidency
(Gonzalez 2016).
Traffic crisis
There was an evident failure on the part of the Aquino administration to solve traffic woes
and ease the suffering of commuters in the capital Manila. Moreover, the inconsistent state-
ments issued by Department of Interior and Local Governments (DILG) Secretary Mar Roxas
and Department of Transportation and Communication (DOTC) Secretary Joseph Emilio
Abaya with regard to the burgeoning traffic situation did not help placate the irate
commuters.
During the annual national convention of the Philippine Sugar Technologists Association
in Cebu in August 2015, Roxas stated that the traffic crisis arose from prosperity, adding that
it was “Because there is money. Because there is economic activity” (Macas 2015). On the
other hand, Abaya was heavily criticized for stating in a television interview that traffic was
not “fatal”, although he later clarified that what he meant was that traffic was “not burden-
some to the daily lives of the people” (Porcalla 2015).
Nevertheless, on 8 September 2015 multitudes of commuters experienced the worst
traffic situation in Manila. On that date, thousands of furious commuters had to endure the
so-called “carmageddon” – a term coined to describe arguably 2015’s most atrocious traffic.
In relation with this, then-Communications Secretary Herminio Coloma Jr. blamed the “car-
mageddon” on heavy rainfall and flashfloods (Bacani 2015; Sabillo 2015a). According to him,
the efforts of the Aquino administration “to improve traffic flow along Edsa and major thor-
oughfares were greatly hindered ... by heavy rains and flash floods that were experienced
during the rush hour of homeward-bound commuting”.
Tanim-bala scandal
The Ninoy Aquino International Airport (NAIA) may have finally been removed from the
ignominious list of the world’s worst airports in 2015. However, a new controversy plagued
the airport.
In the last quarter of 2015, several passengers, mostly Overseas Filipino Workers (OFW),
were targeted by a bullet-planting (“tanim-bala”) extortion scheme allegedly committed by
airport personnel. Authorities decided to launch investigations following the proliferation
not only of these incidents but also of the criticisms against the airport and DOTC personnel
in mishandling the fiasco (Bacani 2015; Corrales 2015).
Aquino did not dismiss Abaya although he was urged by the public to do so, and with
the embarrassing attention that the scandal received from both the local and international
press. At a press conference in November 2015 in an Association of Southeast Asian Nations
summit held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, Aquino even played down the airport fiasco and
questioned whether such bullet-planting incidents actually took place. Aquino asked, “Is
there proof that will confirm or deny the tanim-bala scam?” (Pazzibugan 2015).
over a year later (Cabuenas 2015). Around 250,000 commuters would have benefited from
the LRT-1 Cavite Extension.
The Metro Rail Transit system was also dogged by controversies. On 1 December 2015,
the Office of the Ombudsman filed criminal charges against former Metro Rail Transit 3
(MRT3) general manager Al Vitangcol III and five executives of the Philippine Trans Rail
Management and Services Corporation (PH Trams) over the awarding of a $1.5 million MRT3
provisional maintenance contract in 2012 without going through a public bidding process
(Adel 2015; Marcelo 2015). One of the PH Trams executives, Arturo Soriano, is the uncle of
Vitangcol’s wife. Seven days after the Ombudsman’s filing of charges, the Third Division of
Sandiganbayan stated that they found probable cause to put Vitangcol and the five PH Trams
executives on trial (Tubadeza 2015).
Obviously, the dysfunctional and inefficient train systems of the country exacerbated the
suffering of commuters. Instead of quality services, the public were at the losing end primarily
because of broken promises and anomalous contracts which further raised concerns about
Aquino’s competence in handling the transportation crisis.
On 24 April 2015, Standard & Poor’s reaffirmed the BBB Stable long-term sovereign credit
rating of the Philippines, which was the highest rating ever recorded in the country’s history.
Later, on 24 September 2015, Fitch Ratings granted the country a BBB-Positive Investment
Grade rating. By the last quarter of the year, on 14 December 2015, Moody’s Investors Service
granted a Baa2 Stable Investment Grade rating (Official Gazette 2015a)
The Aquino administration capped its impressive performance in managing the economy
with a 6.3% growth in the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of
2015. This brought the entire GDP for 2015 to 5.8%, a few percentage points below the 6.1%
growth recorded in 2014 (Rappler 2016).
APEC summit
For the second time since 1996, the Philippines hosted the yearly summit of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation (APEC) from 18 to 19 November. Unlike the Ramos administration,
which decided to hold the high-security event in the former American Naval Base at Subic
Bay, Zambales, the Aquino administration opted to hold the event in Manila. The tight secu-
rity and road rerouting for the foreign leaders and delegates further exacerbated the traffic
situation in the metropolis, resulting in much distress and consternation among the ordinary
daily commuters.
Nonetheless, Aquino basked in the international limelight as the official host to more
than 7000 delegates from all over the world. They included 20 world leaders such as US
President Barack Obama, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry
Medvedev, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. APEC first-timers included Canadian
Prime Minister Trudeau, and Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull. President Aquino
also hosted two pre-summit state visits for Chilean President Michelle Bachelet and Mexican
President Enrique Peña Nieto.
In the aftermath of the terrorist attack in France, APEC leaders collectively issued a strong
statement on addressing the root causes of terrorism and radicalization. Moreover, the sum-
mit also outlined new economic strategies for sustained and quality growth beyond 2020.
These include: (1) building inclusive economies; (2) fostering the participation of micro, small,
and medium-sized enterprises; (3) building sustainable and resilient communities; and (4)
enhancing the regional economic integration agenda. However, academic and former mem-
ber of the House of Representatives Walden Bello observed,
APEC is an organization whose time has passed, whose neoliberal premises have been left
behind by reality. What we [witnessed] in Manila [was] a time warp, the enactment of the dip-
lomatic rituals that mask the fact that APEC now simply lurches from one summit to the next,
with no clear direction.
itinugon, ako’y mananahimik na lang. [The question: Is the current path we are taking correct?
If we say not, it is like saying that we ought to just go back to the crooked path. If that is your
response, then I will just keep quiet.] (Official Gazette 2015b)
It is significant to note that throughout Aquino’s term, Interior Secretary Manuel Roxas,
his preferred successor, was consistently underperforming in presidential surveys.7Jejomar
Binay, although pestered by numerous allegations of corruption throughout his term as vice
president, was the consistent front-runner among 2016 presidential aspirants. On 20 August
2015, the Blue Ribbon Committee of the Senate marked its anniversary of hearings on the
accusations against Binay. During the year-long hearings, the issues covered by the com-
mittee include the allegedly overpriced Makati City Hall Building II, “ghost senior citizens”
benefiting from the Makati’s Blu Card Program, dubious Home Development Mutual Fund
(Pag IBIG) housing loans, the so-called “Hacienda Binay”, and alleged irregularities around
the free birthday cakes for Makati senior citizens (Cepeda 2015; Nicolas 2015).
Allegations of corruption and legislative probes, however, did not stop Binay from topping
the survey results of two major polling firms.
As per the December 2015 survey of Pulse Asia Research, Binay was still the most preferred
successor to Aquino as he garnered a rating of 33% in the Pulse Asia Research survey (an
increase of 14% from its September 2015 survey). Binay was followed by Duterte (23%), Poe
(21%), Roxas (17%), and Defensor-Santiago (4%). In a separate December 2015 survey con-
ducted by the Social Weather Stations, Binay and Poe were the top contenders, both gar-
nering a rating of 26%. They were followed by Roxas (22%), Duterte (20%), and
Defensor-Santiago (4%).
The surveys were conducted amidst the decisions of separate divisions of the Commission
on Elections to disqualify Senator Grace Poe from the presidential race and the filing of a
third petition before the Commission on Elections (COMELEC) to cancel the candidacy of
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte due to errors in the Certificate of Candidacy filed by
Martin Diño of Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban), whom he substi-
tuted for in the race (Esmaquel II and Geronimo 2015; Santos 2015).
Poe, the adopted daughter of the late popular movie actor and defeated presidential
candidate Fernando Poe Jr., appears to be a more viable candidate than Aquino’s heir appar-
ent Roxas, who despite building the ruling Liberal Party into the largest political party in the
country, consistently struggles with his survey ratings. Not surprisingly, a series of cases in
the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) and the COMELEC have been filed against Poe questioning
her citizenship and qualification to run for president. She was a foundling left in the Jaro
Metropolitan Cathedral and was later adopted by Fernando Poe Jr. She won her case in the
SET, but was disqualified by the COMELEC. She filed a petition at the Supreme Court and
was granted a Temporary Restraining Order (TRO) against the COMELEC.
Meanwhile, Duterte decided not to contest the presidency in 2016. The maverick mayor
from Mindanao, credited with bringing peace and prosperity to his city through an iron-
fisted law and order rule, filed for reelection instead of the presidency on 15 October 2015.
Earlier, Duterte, who had “rejoined” the PDP-Laban party, toured the country to push the
federalist agenda. Nonetheless, PDP-Laban member Martin Diño filed his Certificate of
Candidacy for president as a substitute for Duterte. However, in the rush to file his certificate,
Diño committed a number of typographical errors that may prove fatal to his candidacy,
and the possibility of Duterte substituting for him. The COMELEC is set to decide on the
issue.
8 J. C. TEEHANKEE
election. Losing the election will not only endanger this administration’s legacy but also
mark an end to the post-1986 Aquino regime narrative. He should be ready for the impending
political storm that is the 2016 elections.
Notes
1.
The first pope to visit the Philippines was Pope Paul VI in 1970. He was followed by Pope John
Paul II who twice visited in 1981 and 1995 (see Gutierrez 2015).
2.
According to police investigations, the Mamasapano incident was a case of “pintakasi”, the
local expression for collective work. One police officer claimed “every time government forces
operate in a particular Moro, they would encounter members of the Moro Islamic Liberation
Front, Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters and other armed groups fighting side by side
with each other”.
3.
Aquino was heavily criticized, particularly in social media, for deciding to attend the inauguration
of a Mitsubishi factory rather than personally receive the bodies of the SAF personnel at the
airport. This highlighted the widespread perception of his lack of empathy and sympathy.
4.
The survey itself also revealed that the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM)
region is split. Maguindanaoans and Maranaws support the BBL while Tausugs (Moro
National Liberation Front, MNLF) do not. This is important since the peace process was not
that inclusive.
5.
Chief Justice Renato Corona was impeached and found guilty for failing to disclose and
accurately declare his bank deposits and properties in his Statement of Assets, Liabilities and
Net Worth (SALN). A total of 20 senators voted against him including Estrada, Revilla, and
Enrile (see Rappler.com 2012. “Corona Found Guilty, Removed from Office,” Rappler.com. July 2.
http://www.rappler.com/nation/special-coverage/corona-trial/6099-corona-found-guilty).
6.
The interim award sets the ground for the final ruling to be made by the PCA in 2016 (see
Gupta, Sourabh. 2015. “What the Philippines–China Arbitration Ruling Means for the South
China Sea.” East Asia Forum. November 16. http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2015/11/16/what-
the-philippines-china-arbitration-ruling-means-for-the-south-china-sea/).
7.
Manuel “Mar” Roxas II is the grandson of the Liberal Party founder and fourth Philippine
president. He was set to run for the presidency in 2010 when he decided to give way to Benigno
S. Aquino III at the height of the political emotions brought about by the death of former
president Corazon C. Aquino.
Acknowledgements
The author acknowledges the assistance of Kevin Nielsen Agojo in the preparation of this year-end
report. He is also grateful for the comments and suggestions of the members of the PPSJ Editorial Board
who reviewed early drafts of the report. However, he assumes full responsibility for the final manuscript.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes on contributor
Julio C. Teehankee is Full Professor of Political Science and International Studies at De La Salle University
where he also serves as the Dean of the College of Liberal Arts. He is the Executive Secretary of the
Asian Political and International Studies Association (APISA) and sits in the Board of the Philippine
Political Science Association (PPSA). He completed his postdoctoral studies at the Graduate Schools
of Law and Politics at the University of Tokyo, Japan and obtained his PhD in Development Studies
from De La Salle University.
10 J. C. TEEHANKEE
ORCID
Julio C. Teehankee http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1335-5594
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