TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART I: REGIONAL AND GLOBAL ISSUES ............................................................. 3

Unit 1 Globalization.................................................................................................................4
The 1914 Effect: The Globalization Counter-Reaction................................. 4
Retreat from Globalization Will Destabilize the World Economy ............. 14
Unit 2 Environment ...............................................................................................................23
The COP21 Deal: What Does It Mean for Asia? ........................................ 23
Clear Thinking Needed ................................................................................ 31
Unit 3 Economic Issues ..........................................................................................................40
The Right Way to Help Declining Places .................................................... 40
Misplaced Charity........................................................................................ 48
Unit 4 Terrorism ....................................................................................................................58
Jihad at the Heart of Europe ........................................................................ 58
Heart of Asia 2016: Phony Peacemaking for Afghanistan?........................ 66
Unit 5 Conflicts ......................................................................................................................75
Asia’s Challenge: Separatism ...................................................................... 75
Neither Peace Nor War, Just Endless Suffering......................................... .84
Unit 6 Other issues ..................................................................................................................92
Internet Age - Social Media and Democracy ............................................. .92
Asia-Pacific: Time for New Energy Solutions.......................................... 102

PART II: POWERS AND FOREIGN RELATIONS ............................................ 110

Unit 7 America.....................................................................................................................111
A Very Long Engagement......................................................................... 111
US and the Hyperpower ............................................................................ 120
Unit 8 China .......................................................................................................................128
China’s Offensive Charm: Reef Knots...................................................... 128
How to Heat up Lukewarm India–China Relations ................................. 138

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 Unit 9 Russia ......................................................................................................................146
Dancing with Bears in Putin's Shadow ...................................................... 146
Rethink the Reset ....................................................................................... 153
Unit 10 Other powerful countries .......................................................................................161
The Great Britan - British Politics is Being Profoundly Reshaped by
Populism .................................................................................................... 161
Japan - What to Expect from Abe's US Visit ............................................ 168

PART III: REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ORGANZATIONS.............. 175

Unit 11 South East Asia - ASEAN .....................................................................................176
Agreeing to agree ............................................................................................... 176
ASEAN Strategic Diplomacy Underpinning Regional Stability ..........................185
Unit 12 Asia Pacific - APEC ...............................................................................................193
The Least that East Asians Can Do to Cooperate ........................................ 193
Ever Ambivalent APEC............................................................................ 199
Unit 13 Europe - EU ............................................................................................................206
Can Europe be saved? ........................................................................................206
The road to Brexit. ............................................................................................215
Unit 14 Trade/Economic Agreements and Organisations ..................................................224
Life after Doha..... .............................................................................................224
The collapse of TPP - Trading down. ..............................................................231
Unit 15 The United Nations ..................................................................................................240
The UN in conflict zones - Peacekeepers in name only .................................240
The UN Human Rights Council Will Be Weaker If America Leaves ............251
APPENDIX 1 Language and Structures of Newspaper Headlines … ....................................259
APPENDIX 2 Guidance on Summary Writing ........................................................................261

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 PART I

REGIONAL
AND
GLOBAL ISSUES

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 Unit 1 GLOBALISATION
The 1914 Effect: The Globalisation Counter-Reaction
Globalisation is a highly disruptive force. It provoked a reaction in the early 20th
century. Are we seeing a repeat?
1. WHEN the Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in 1914, there were few
initial indications that world war would follow. In retrospect, many people have argued
that the killing was a freak event that should not have resulted in the folly of war.
2. But was the subsequent war really an exogenous event? Or was it the near-inevitable
consequence of the tensions resulting from the first great era of globalisation? If Franz
Ferdinand had survived, maybe something else would have triggered the conflict. If the
latter possibility is right, that may be a warning sign for the current era.
3. From 1870 to 1914, the first great era of globalisation saw rapid economic growth,
trade that grew faster than GDP, mass migration from Europe to the New World and
convergence of real wages between the old and new worlds. In Europe, GDP per capita
grew more than 70%; in the new world, (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada and the
United States) it doubled. Trade grew from 5.9% of global GDP to 8.2%. In many
European countries growth was much higher; nearly 15% in the UK and 18% in Belgium.
This occurred despite the restoration of tariffs in many countries in the 1880s onwards.
Transport costs were falling fast thanks to the railway and the steamship which meant that
prices for goods like wheat, iron and copper converged across the western world.
4. Migration rates were remarkable. In the decade 1901-10, 5% of those from Austria-
Hungary left the country, more than 6% of Britons, 7% of the Irish, 8% of Norwegians,
and nearly 11% of Italians. Argentina added another 30% to its population, in immigrants
alone, in that decade. Europe had lots of workers; the new world not so many. So as the
workers moved, real wages nearly doubled in Europe during the period compared with a
50% rise in America.
5. That globalisation had brought greater prosperity was recognised at the time. Keynes
famously said that in 1914
6. The inhabitant of London could order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in bed,
the various products of the whole earth, in such quantity as he might see fit, and
reasonably expect their early delivery upon his doorstep; he could at the same moment

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and by the same means adventure his wealth in the natural resources and new enterprises
of any quarter of the world, and share, without exertion or even trouble, in their
prospective fruits and advantages.
7. Capital flowed freely. Britain financed the railways of Latin America; France the
economic expansion of Russia. In his 1909 book, The Great Illusion, Norman Angell,
argued that war between the great powers was futile because of the economic damage it
would cause.
8. And yet in 1914, the great powers “sleepwalked” into war, as one author put it.
Globalisation then went into reverse. It wasn’t until the 1960s or 1970s that trade
recaptured its share of global GDP or countries like America started to re-open their
borders to immigrants in a substantial way. Capital flows weren’t freed until the 1980s.
The intervening period saw two world wars and a great Depression.
9. Globalisation was one of the forces that helped created the First World War because
it has profoundly destabilising effects, effects we are also seeing today. In large part
globalisation is about the more efficient allocation of resources—labour, capital, even
land—and that creates losers. People don’t like change, especially when they lose from it.
Clearly, the mid-19th century was a period of enormous change that were not just
economic. In America, the industrial north defeated the agricultural south; Germany and
Italy became nation states, and the multi-national Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires
sunk into terminal decline.
10. Germany and America were able to catch up and, in the latter’s case, surpass the
British economy. The pax Britannica in which Britain supported global trade through its
powerful navy and financial system was weakened; the Bank of England needed loans
from other central banks when Barings collapsed in 1890.
11. Industrialisation meant that new sources of power emerged to challenge the old
aristocratic elites—industrialists and factory workers. Workers were able to use their
muscle to demand more rights and, increasingly, the vote. Elites turned to nationalism as
a way of distracting voters from economic issues and shoring up their support. This
nationalism led to clashes with the other great powers where their interests diverged;
between Britain and Russia in Asia; Russia and Austria in the Balkans; Germany and
France in north Africa.

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12. As the powers sought to head off these challenges, they split into the triple entente
of Britain, Russia and France and the triple alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary and
Italy. Britain worried about the growing economic power of Germany and entered a naval
race; Germany worried about the growing power of Russia and wanted a war sooner
rather than later. Confrontation looked more attractive than collaboration.
13. Globalisation also meant that events in other part of the world become more
important; if anything ought to have been an event in a “far way country of which we
know nothing”, it was the assassination of an archduke in Sarajevo. But it dragged Britain
into a war that ultimately sabotaged its status as a great power.
14. At the same time, the great powers had to deal with much unrest at home. What
George Dangerfield called "The Strange Death of Liberal England" saw a potential civil
war in Ireland, mass strikes and suffragette protests. The Russian regime nearly fell in
1905. France was convulsed by the Dreyfus affair, which divided society as clearly as
Brexit or the Trump presidency. And then there were assassinations: Tsar Alexander II,
the Italian king, the Spanish prime minister, the Empress of Austria and the American
president William McKinley. In some cases, the murderers were immigrants; the clichéd
picture of the anarchist with a bomb in hand dates from this era.
15. To sum up, globalisation disrupted both international power structures and domestic
ones. This rapid change caused a reaction that was often violent. World War One was not
inevitable but it was unsurprising.
16. So let us move to the current era of globalisation, during which the export share of
global GDP has more than doubled since the 1960s. New economic powers have emerged
to challenge American dominance; first, Japan, and now China and potentially India.
Imperial overstretch threatens America as it did Edwardian Britain. The ability and, more
recently, willingness of America to act as global policeman has been eroded. Indeed,
unlike Britain in 1914, America is a net debtor not a creditor. Can it hold China’s
ambitions in check in the Pacific, counterbalance Iran and the terrorists of Islamic State in
the middle east and deal with a nationalist Russian regime? It seems clear that other
powers think it can’t. They are pushing to see whether America will react.
17. Migration has increased again, not quite to pre-1914 levels but in another direction:
from the developing world to the developed. This has led to cultural and economic
resentment among voters and imported the quarrels of other countries. We see terrorists

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on the streets of London, Manchester, Paris and Boston; all inspired by events thousands
of miles away. Economic integration means that financial crises can quickly spread; just
as American subprime mortgages hit the world in 2008, Chinese bad debt may do so in
future.
18. Within the economy two big changes have occurred. Manufacturing capacity has
moved from the developed world to Asia. Technology has rewarded skilled workers and
widened pay gaps. Voters have rebelled by turning to parties that reject globalisation.
This didn’t happen in France but generally it has made life more difficult for centre-left
parties and turned centre-right parties more nativist. America’s Republicans used to be
enthusiasts for free trade. Now they have elected Donald Trump.
19. Just as in the first era, globalisation has disrupted international and domestic power
structures. Thankfully this does not mean that another world war is inevitable. But it is
easy to imagine regional conflicts: Iran against Saudi Arabia, or an American attack on
North Korea that provokes a Chinese reaction.
20. But we will see more resistance to globalisation from governments, as they calculate
that voters will reward nativism. Foreign takeovers will be blocked. Domestic companies
will be subsidised or favoured in government programmes. Tit-for-tat trade embargoes
and tariffs will be imposed; the WTO could come under threat. Immigration will be
discouraged, even of high-skilled workers. Populism can emerge from the left (higher
taxes and nationalisation) as much as from the right; see Britain.
21. The real danger is that this a zero-sum game. Governments will appear to grab a
larger share of global trade for their own countries. In doing so, they will cause trade to
shrink. That might make voters even angrier. From the early 1980s to 2008, most
companies could count on a business-friendly political environment in the developed
world. But it looks as if that era has ended with the financial crisis. Globalisation has
caused another counter-reaction.
22. The best hope is that technology can deliver the economic growth and rising
prosperity voters want. If that happens, these threats will not disappear but they will be
much reduced. But for all the hype about new technology, productivity has been sluggish.
The omens are not great.

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 Guide to Study
A. Notes:
This article was published in Buttonwood column of The Economist on June 14th, 2017.

B. Pre-reading exercises:
Read the title, subtitle of the article carefully and try to answer the questions below.
1. What do know about globalization?
2. What are advantages and disadvantages of globalization?
3. Write down three questions to which you expect to find the answers in the article.

C. Reading for the gist:

Read the article and then write down what it is about in one complete sentence.

D. Comprehension questions:
Answer the following questions in your own words.
1. What were the effects of the first phase of globalization?
2. Why was globalization considered as the cause of the First World War?
3. How did globalization affect social classes?
4. Why could elites distract voters by using nationalism?
5. How did globalization disrupt both international power structures and domestic ones?
6. What is the situation of America now?
7. What are potential disadvantages that globalization can bring about?
8. What will governments do to deal with bad effects of globalization?
9. How do you understand the last sentence of the article?

E. Words and expressions:

Explain the meaning of the following words and phrases, as used in the article.

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1. a highly disruptive force (subtitle)
2. an exogenous event (P. 2)
3. adventure his wealth (P. 6)
4. the great powers “sleepwalked” into war (P. 8)
5. the pax Britannica (P. 10)
6. the old aristocratic elites (P. 11)
7. sought to head off these challenges (P. 12)
8. suffragette protests (P. 14)
9. convulsed (P. 14)
10. imperial overstretch (P. 16)
11. America is a net debtor not a creditor (P. 16)
12. subprime mortgages (P. 17)
13. nativism (P. 20)
14. tit-for-tat trade embargoes (P. 20)
15.populism (P. 20)

F. Translation:
Translate the last four paragraphs into Vietnamese (from “Just as in the first era….” to
“..... are not great”).

G. Summary:
Summarize the article in about 150 – 200 words.

H. Language:
Add more synonyms of the following words:

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1. Embargo:
2. Counterbalance:
3. Sabotage:

I. Extended questions for discussion:

1. Do you support or oppose globalization? Why?
2. In what ways do you think developing countries like Vietnam can benefit from
globalization?
3. In the article, the author mentions centre-left and centre-right parties (P. 18) as well as
the left and the right (P. 20). What do you know about them?

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 Retreat From Globalization Will Destabilize The World Economy
Hostility in the UK and US to structures such as the EU, World Bank and IMF will lead
to increasing instability for everyone.
1. The retreat of the advanced
economies from the global economy – and,
in the case of the UK, from regional
trading arrangements – has received a lot
of attention lately. At a time when the
global economy’s underlying structures are
under strain, this could have far-reaching
consequences.
2. Whether by choice or necessity, the
vast majority of the world’s economies are
part of a multilateral system that gives
their counterparts in the advanced world –
especially the US and Europe – enormous
privileges. Three stand out.
3. First, because they issue the world’s
main reserve currencies, the advanced
economies get to exchange bits of paper
that they printed for goods and services
produced by others. Second, for most
global investors, these economies’ bonds
are a quasi-automatic component of
portfolio allocations, so their governments’
budget deficits are financed in part by
other countries’ savings.
4. The advanced economies’ final key
advantage is voting power and
representation. They command either veto
power or a blocking minority in the
Bretton Woods institutions (the
International Monetary Fund and the
World Bank), which gives them a
disproportionate influence on the rules and
practices that govern the international
economic and monetary system. And,
given their historical dominance of these
organisations, their nationals are de
facto assured the top positions.
5. These privileges don’t come for free
– at least they shouldn’t. In exchange, the
advanced economies are supposed to fulfil
certain responsibilities that help ensure the
system’s functioning and stability. But
recent developments have cast doubts on
whether the advanced economies are able
to hold up their end of this bargain.
6. Perhaps the most obvious example
is the 2008 global financial crisis. The
result of excessive risk-taking and lax
regulation in the advanced economies, the
financial system’s near-meltdown
disrupted global trade, threw millions into
unemployment, and almost tipped the
world into a multi-year depression.
7. But there have been other lapses,
too. For example, political obstacles to
comprehensive economic policymaking in
many advanced economies have
undermined the implementation of
structural reforms and responsive fiscal
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policies in recent years, holding back
business investment, undermining
productivity growth, worsening inequality,
and threatening future potential growth.
8. Such economic lapses have
contributed to the emergence of anti-
establishment political movementsthat are
looking to change – or are already
changing – long-established cross-border
trade relations, including those within
the European Union and the North
American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA).
9. Meanwhile, a prolonged and
excessive reliance on monetary policy,
including direct central-bank involvement
in market activities, has distorted asset
prices and contributed to resource
misallocation. And the advanced
economies – particularly Europe – have
shown little appetite for reforming
outdated elements of governance and
representation at the international financial
institutions, despite major changes in the
global economy.
10. The result of all this is a multilateral
system that is less effective, less
collaborative, less trusted, and more
vulnerable to ad hoc tinkering. Against this
background, it should not be surprising
that globalisation and regionalisation no
longer command the degree of support
they once did – or that some rising political
movements on both sides of the Atlantic
are condemning both concepts to win more
support for their own causes.
11. It is not yet clear whether this is a
temporary and reversible phenomenon or
the beginning of a protracted challenge to
the functioning of the global economy.
What is clear is that it is affecting two
important relationships.
12. The first is the relationship between
small and large economies. For a long
time, small, well-managed, and open
economies were the leading beneficiaries
of the Bretton Woods system and, more
generally, of multilateralism. Their size not
only made them crave access to outside
markets; it also made other market actors
more willing to integrate them into
regional pacts, owing to their limited
displacement potential. Membership in
effective international institutions brought
these countries into consequential global
policy discussions, while their own
capabilities allowed them to exploit
opportunities in cross-border production
and consumption chains.
13. But, at a time of surging
nationalism, these small and open
economies, however well managed, are
likely to suffer. Their trading relationships
are less stable; the trade pacts on which
they depend are vulnerable; and their
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participation in global policy discussions is
less assured.
14. The second relationship is that
between the Bretton Woods institutions
and parallel institutional arrangements. For
example, while they pale in significance to,
say, the World Bank, China-led institutions
have proved appealing to a growing
number of countries; most US allies have
joined the Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank, despite American opposition.
Similarly, bilateral payment agreements –
which, not long ago, most countries would
have opposed via the IMF, owing to their
inconsistency with multilateralism – are
proliferating. The concern is that these
alternative approaches could undermine,
rather than reinforce, a predictable and
beneficial rules-based system of cross-
border interactions.
15. The Bretton Woods organisations,
instituted after world war two to maintain
stability, risk losing their influence, and the
countries with the clout to bolster
themseem unwilling at this stage to press
ahead boldly with the needed reforms. If
these tendencies continue, developing
countries will probably suffer the most; but
they won’t be alone. In the short term, the
world economy would face slower
economic growth and the risk of greater
financial instability. In the longer term, it
would confront the threat of systemic
fragmentation and proliferating trade wars.
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 Guide to Study
A. Notes:
The article was written by Mohamed El-Erian and published in The GuardianonJan 30th,
2017. Mohamed El-Erian is chief economic adviser at Allianz and was chairman of
Barack Obama’s Global Development Council.

B. Pre-reading exercises:
Read the title, subtitle of the article carefully and try to answer the questions below.
1. What do you think the article is about?
2. What do you think of the trends of globalization and retreating from globalization?
3. Write down three questions to which you expect to find the answers in the article.

C. Reading for the gist:

Read the article and the write down what it is about in one complete sentence.

D. Comprehension questions:
Answer the following questions in your own words.
1. Why does the author say that multilateral system gives the advanced
economiesenormous privileges?
2. According to the author, what should those advanced economies do in return for the
privileges they are given? Have they done it?
3. What are the reasons and consequence of the 2008 global financial crisis?
4. What about other failures of those advanced economies? And their results on countries’
politics?
5. How have some advanced economies, especially Europe, reacted to the need of
conducting reform?
6. How has the multilateral system been affected by all the discussed problems?
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7. What does the author think of the impacts made by the advanced economies’ trend of
retreating from the global economy on two significant relationships?
8. According to the author, if those trends keep happening, who will suffer from what?

E. Words & Expressions:

Explain the meaning of the following words and phrases, as used in the article.
1. a quasi-automatic component of portfolio allocations (P. 3)
2. their nationals are de facto assured the top positions (P.4)
3. to hold up their end of this bargain (P. 5)
4. the financial system’s near-meltdown (P. 6)
5. anti-establishment political movements (P. 8)
6. ad hoc tinkering(P. 10)
7. limited displacement potential (P. 12)
8. parallel institutional arrangements (P. 14)
9. pale in significance (P. 14)
10. the countries with the clout to bolster them (P. 15)

F. Translation
Translate paragraphs 6 to 10 of the article into Vietnamese, from “Perhaps the most
obvious example…” to “… to win more support for their own causes.”

G. Summary
Summarize the article in about 150-200 words.

H. Language
Distinguish the following words/phrases:
1. Recess, crisis, depression, and down turn
2. Organization, institution, establishment, and arrangement

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I. Extended questions:
1. What does the author mean by “certain responsibilities” that the advanced economies
are supposed to take?
2. Why are the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund called Bretton Woods
institutions? What do you know about the Bretton Woods system?
3. What is the current level of involvement and interest of Vietnam in Bretton Woods
alternative institutions (e.g. the AIIB)?

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