Washing Machine Example - Working

Customer ComplaintsBrand
No. Problem Symptom

CS001100 W-12A2 Belt Sudden
CS001101 B-13AR3 Belt Sudden
CS001102 WB-1C1 Belt Sudden
CS001700 WB-1C1 Belt Shake and Noise
CS001701 B-13AR3 Belt Shake and Noise
CS001704 W-12A2 Belt Shake and Noise
CS001900 B-13AR3 Motor Sudden
CS001901 WB-1C1 Motor Sudden
CS001902 W-12A2 Motor Sudden
CS002000 B-13AR3 Motor Shake and Noise
CS002001 WB-1C1 Motor Shake and Noise
CS002003 W-12A2 Motor Shake and Noise
CS002900 B-13AR3 Drum Sudden
CS002904 WB-1C1 Drum Sudden
CS002906 W-12A2 Drum Sudden
CS002940 WB-1C1 Drum Shake and Noise
CS002941 B-13AR3 Drum Shake and Noise
CS002951 W-12A2 Drum Shake and Noise
Probabilities
Belt (B) Drum(D) Motor(M)
Sudden(S) 0.1 0.08 0.45 0.63
Shake and Noise(N) 0.3 0.02 0.05 0.37
0.4 0.1 0.5 1
P(B) 0.4 P(BS) 0.1

P(D) 0.1 P(DS) 0.08
P(M) 0.5 P(MS) 0.45
P(S) 0.63 P(BN) 0.3

P(N) 0.37 P(DN) 0.02
P(MN) 0.05
P(B/S) 0.1587301587
P(D/S) 0.126984127
P(M/S) 0.7142857143
P(B/N) 0.8108108108
P(D/N) 0.0540540541
P(M/N) 0.1351351351
Count - Customer Complaints No. Problem
Symptom Belt Drum Motor Total Result
Shake and Noise 10.00% 8.00% 45.00% 63.00%
Sudden 30.00% 2.00% 5.00% 37.00%
Total Result 40.00% 10.00% 50.00% 100.00%
Q4.31
Initial Prob. Conditional Prob. Joint Prob. Revised Prob.
A 0.1 0.05 0.005 0.05376344086
B 0.4 0.12 0.048 0.51612903226
C 0.5 0.08 0.04 0.43010752688
0.093
Q4.32
Joint Prob. Of Revised Prob.

Initial Prob. Incorrect Filling Incorrect filling Of Incorrectly
of orders filling of orders
Alex 0.3 0.2 0.06 0.4743083004

Alicia 0.45 0.12 0.054 0.42687747036
Juan 0.25 0.05 0.0125 0.09881422925
0.1265
a) 0.45
b) 0.901185770750988
c)
d)
Q4.33
Joint Prob. That

Market Share Rated healty in a market a Revised Prob.
lawn is rated
healthy
Tristate 0.72 0.3 0.216 0.79411764706

Greenchem 0.28 0.2 0.056 0.20588235294
0.272
Q4.34
Training(Conditional
Classification Conditional Prob. Revised Prob.
Prob)
Small 0.7 0.18 0.126 0.33870967742
Large 0.3 0.82 0.246 0.66129032258
Q4.27 Qualified Workers Qualified Workers

Economy 0.15 0.31 0.46
Economy 0.22 0.32 0.54
0.37 0.63 1
a) 0.405405405405405
b) 0.326086956521739
c) 0.407407407407407
d) 0.32
Q4.28 Email Email

To Do List 0.108
To Do List 0.432
0.54 0.46 1
a) 0.108
b) 0.432
c) 0.8
Q4.29
Software Not
Software Purchased
Purchased
Hardware
0.3589 0.0111 0.37
Purchased
Hardware
not 0.1811 0.4489 0.63
Purchased
0.54 0.46 1
a) a. .03
b) b. .2875
c) c. .3354
d) d. .9759
Q4.18
Urban Non-Urban
Care 0.11 0.04 0.15
Careful 0.67 0.18 0.85
0.78 0.22 1
Q4.19
Stock Holder Non-Stock Holder
Degree 0.3225 0.0475 0.37
Non-Degree 0.1075 0.5225 0.63
0.43 0.57 1
a) 0.57 a. .57
b) 0.3225 b. .3225
c) 0.6775 c. .4775
d) 0.5225 d. .5225
e) 0.4775 e. .6775
f) 0.0475 f. .0475
Revised Prob.
Of correctly
filling of
orders
0.5256916996
0.5731225296
0.9011857708

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Customer ComplaintsBrand

No. Problem Symptom

P(B) 0.4 P(BS) 0.1

P(S) 0.63 P(BN) 0.3

Joint Prob. Of Revised Prob.

Alex 0.3 0.2 0.06 0.4743083004

Joint Prob. That

Tristate 0.72 0.3 0.216 0.79411764706

Q4.27 Qualified Workers Qualified Workers

Q4.28 Email Email

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