Role of PMP Atlas in Design Flood Estimation

M. Raghuram
Director
Presentation Outline

 Introduction
 Methods of PMP Estimation
 Data Requirements in PMP Studies
 PMP atlases and Details
 Usage of PMP Atlas
 Example & Case Studies
 Guidelines in using PMP Atlas

#2
Design Flood
 Based on the type of Water Resources Structure and down stream
impacts, BIS specifies the design flood .

 Design Flood for Storage Dams (IS:11223-1985)

Classification Gross Storage  Static Head at FRL  Design Flood 

(MCM) (M)
Small 0.5‐10 7.5‐12 100 Year Flood
Intermediate 10‐60 12‐30 SPF

Large >60 >30 PMF

 Barrages and Weirs (IS:6966 Part I-1989)

• Other than free board – 50 year flood
• Free Board - 500 year flood
Hydrometeorological Approach

Basin Response Function
UG

Design 
Flood (SPF/PMF/
Return Period Flood)

Design Storm (SPS/PMP/
Return Period Storm)
Isopluvial Maps of Different Return Periods

5
SPS & PMP Analysis

#6
Definitions of SPS & PMP
 The Standard Project Storm is the one, which is reasonably
capable of occurring over the basin under consideration and
is generally the heaviest rain storm, which has occurred in
the region of the basin during the period of rainfall records.

 Probable Maximum Precipitation is an estimate of the

physical upper limit to storm over the catchment, and is
obtained by studying all the storms that have occurred over
the region and maximising them for the most critical
atmospheric conditions. PMP = SPS* MMF (or MAF)
 PMP is the precepitation resulting from a storm induced by the
optimal dynamic factor and the maximum moisture factor
symultaneously.

#7
PMP Estimation - Methods
 Methods
 Physical Method
Local Storm Method
Transposition Method

 Statistical Method - Hershfield method

 Approaches
 Watershed Approach
 Storm Area Approach
Estimation of PMP Watershed Approach
PMP Estimation (Physical Method)
 Definition of PMP
Data Procurement
It is defined as the theoretically the greatest depth of precipitation for a given
duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular
Daily Rainfall Data Dew Point Data Hourly Rainfall Data
geographical location at a certain time of year.
Rainstorm Analysis Time Distribution 
Analysis
Storm 
 Methods of estimation
Transposition Heavy Rain spells 
1. Storm model approach
Isohytel Maps Average Percent 
2. Maximization and transposition of actual storms.
Time Distribution  
3. Use of generalized depth-area-duration data
Standard Project Strom (SPS) ( 6,12, 24, 48, 72 
4. Statistical analyses of extremeMoisture Adjustment Factor (MAF)
rainfalls Hours)
Strom Maximization

PMP  for 1, 2, 3 Days

#9
PMP Estimation - Data & Subjectivity
 Severe Rainstorm Data and their Synoptic Situation
 Daily Rainfall Data for the concerned Period
 Isohyetal Pattern of the storms
 Persisting Dew Point Temperature during Storm Period
 Highest persisting Dew point data at project location
 Topography
 Storm Transposition
 SRRG Data for Temporal Distribution

 PMP Studies are data intensive and require rigorous

analysis as well as indepth Meteorological
Knowledge
#10
PMP Atlas

#11
Estimation of PMP Storm Area Approach
PMP Estimation (Physical Method)
 Definition of PMP
Data Procurement
It is defined as the theoretically the greatest depth of precipitation for a given
duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular
Daily Rainfall Data Dew Point Data Hourly Rainfall Data
geographical location at a certain time of year.
Rainstorm Analysis Time Distribution 
Analysis
Storm 
 Methods of estimation
Transposition Heavy Rain spells 
1. Storm model approach
Isohytel Maps Average Percent 
2. Maximization and transposition of actual storms.
Time Distribution  
3. Use of generalized depth-area-duration data
( 6,12, 24, 48, 72 
Depth‐ Duration  analyses
4. Statistical of extreme rainfalls
Depth‐Area‐ Hours)
(DD) Duration (DAD)
Clock Hour 
Standard Project Strom (SPS) Correction

Strom Maximization

Moisture Adjustment Factor (MAF)
PMP  for 1, 2, 3 Days

Grid Point PMP
#12
Depth Area Duration (DAD) Analysis

#13
Prepared PMP Atlases
 In 1997, PMP Atlases were prepared for
• Chambal, Betwa, Sone and Mahi basin.
• Godavari and other east flowing rivers.
• Cauveri and other east flowing rivers
• Mahanadi and adjoining river basin.
• Narmada, Tapi, Sabarmati, Banas and Luni River
Systems and Rivers of Saurashstra and Kutch Region.
• West Flowing Rivers of Western Ghats
 In 2007, PMP Atlases were prepared for
• Indus basin
• Krishna Basin
 Updating of PMP Atlas
 Preparation of New PMP atlases for

– Ganga River Basin

– Brahmaputra River basin

 Updation of existing PMP atlases for

– Cauvery and other East Flowing River Basins

– Godavari and other East Flowing River Basins

– Mahanadi and Adjoining River basins

– Chambal, Betwa, Sone and Mahi River Basins

– Narmada, Tapi, Sabarmati, Banas and Luni

River systems and Rivers of Saurashtra and
Kutch Region

– West Flowing Rivers of Western Ghats

#15
PMP Atlas - Deliverables
 Documentation of all rainstorms affecting the basins

 Synoptic situation and their Tracks of severe rainstorms.

 Isohyetal maps of 1, 2, 3-day durations for each of the selected

severe rainstorms

 DAD (Depth- Area-Duration) analysis for all identified rainstorms

 Estimation of SPS and PMP over different sub- basins

 Grid wise and sub basin Matrix of contributing storms

 Grid PMP depths at 1o X 1o grid points for each of the basins and
Maps

 Area reduction factors for conversion of point PMP depths into areal
depths

#16
Deliverables - Contd.,
 Estimation of point PMP for the durations of 1, 2 and 3-day storms
based on Hershfield’s method and preparation of PMP maps

 Estimation of 2.33, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000
year return period rainfall for all stations

 Time-distribution of PMP in 12, 24, 48 & 72 hours duration

 Clock-hour correction

 All the Maps in GIS format

 Maps showing the snow fed areas and rain fed areas.

#17
Godavari Basin Study

#18
Salient Features of Godavari Basin
 Godavari is the third largest river basin in India extending over an
area of 3,12,812 sq. km.

 It starts in Nasik district of Maharashtra at an elevation of 1,067 m.

and after flowing for about 1,465 km it falls into the Bay of Bengal.

 The annual rainfall of Godavari basin varies from 3,000 mm to

600 mm.

 Godavari basin is divided into 7 sub-basins and assigned numbers

from 311 to 317 in the study.
Sub Basin Map
Selection of severe rain storms

 Daily rainfall data of 343 stations were used to determine the

rainstorms over the Godavari River Basin.
 The criteria of rain spells having recorded rainfall of 200 mm or
more in 1-day, 250 mm or more in 2-day, and 300 mm or more in
3-day duration at the center of the storm was applied to select the
rainstorms.
 Finally 79 rainstorms used in this study.
• 79 rainstorms for 1-day,
• 38 rainstorms for 2-day
• 21 rainstorms for 3-day.

#21
List of Analyzed Storms

#22
Storm Centre Location Map

#23
Synoptic Situation of Severe Storms

 Severe rainstorm of 25-27 June 1914

A severe rainstorm lasting for the 4 days from 24 to 27 June
occurred over the upper and lower Godavari catchment. The
rainstorm was caused by a cyclonic storm of moderate intensity,
which was developed in the Bay of Bengal on 24 June. The
system moved west-northwest and after crossing the coast on
the night of 24 June was centered near Gopalpur. From here the
system moved slowly into Madhya Pradesh and was centered
near Khandwa on 27 June and then moved slowly westward.

The center of the rainstorm was located at Parbhani which

recorded 401 mm, 557 mm and 559 mm of rainfall in 1-day
maximum rainfall on 27 June, 2-day maximum rainfall for 26-27
June and 3–day maximum rainfall for 25-27 June.

#24
Tracks of Severe Storms

#25
Isohyetal Map of 27th June, 1914 Storm (1 Day)

26
DAD Curve of 25-27 June, 1914 Storm

Storm  Peak  Area (sqkm)

Date Rainfall
100 500 1000 2000 3000 50000
27.6.1914 401 398 390 376 350 327 149
26‐27 June 558 554 546 538 524 512 278
25‐27 June 559 556 548 540 526 515 319

#27
MMF of Severe Storms

#28
Sub Basin wise PMP Estimation

#29
Sub Basin Map
Sub Basin wise PMP Estimation

 Rainstorms contributing to the sub basin including transposable

storms of different durations are identified.

 DAD curves of the relevant storms are used to construct the

Enevelop DAD Curve of different durations for the sub basin

 SPS depths for 1, 2 and 3 - Day durations are read from the
relevant Enevelop DAD curve and values are tabulated for different
areas

 The relavant PMP (insitu) values are estimated using SPS values
and the MMFs of the concerned storms

#31
Sub Basin wise PMP Estimation

The SPS and PMP values of Upper Godavari Sub Basin

#32
PMP Estimation at Grid Points

#33
 PMP Estimation at Grid Points

 Point of intersection in a 10 latitude X 10 longitude grid network termed as grid

points for the 7 sub basins of the Godavari River Basin identified

#34
Estimation Procedure

 Identification of Rainstorms contributing at the Grid Points

 Estimation of SPS depths at Grid Points using Envelop Curve of

Sub Basin

 MAF Calculation for the Relevant Rainstorms

 Estimation of PMP for Grid Points

 Preparation Grid Point PMP maps for different areas

#35
 SPS and PMP depths at Grid Points
Envelope Depth Area Duration Curve (1‐Day)
600
WRD‐1, WRD‐2,  WRD‐3
500
Precipitation in mm

400

300

200

100

0
0 10 20 30 40 50
Area in 1000  sq. km.

#36
Grid PMP – 1 Day Duration for 1, 000 sq km

#37
Estimation of Time Distribution

#38
Time Distribution

#39
Statistical Estimates of PMP

#40
PMP by Statistical approach

#41
PMP by Statistical approach

#42
Usage of PMP Atlas

#43
Usage of PMP Atlas

 The PMP atlases are comprehensive data banks which will be

useful not only for quick assessment of design storm for a
small or medium catchment but also in detailed project
specific storm studies.

 Grid Point PMP Values

Ideally suited for projects with small and medium size drainage
areas with Catchments with one of the grid points close to its
centre

Preferred for small and medium drainage areas

 Sub Basin wise Envelope DAD Curve

SPS value is read from Envelop DAD Curve and MAF is

calculated

Usually gives heigher values due to Envelope curve

#44
Using PMP Atlas

 Identifying the Critical Storms and Using DAD Curve

DAD curves give higher values in comparison to isohyetal

map

 Catchment Specific Storm Studies

Most Preferred Method and can be adopted for any

catchments

Data such as list of storms, storm centres, synoptic

situation, Isohyetal maps, dew point temperature is readily
available in atlas

 Statistical Point PMP Values

 Point PMP values with Area Reduction Factors can be used

 Not preferred, however, useful for cross checking

#45
Example Problem

#46
Problem

Estimation of one day areal PMP for a project on Wardha tributary

having Catchment Area of 4205 sq km
 Grid PMP values

Area WRD‐4 (mm) WRD‐5(mm) WNG‐3(mm)

4000 sqkm 469 489 439
5000 sqkm 456 476 428
4205 sqkm 466 486 437

Average value of one day PMP = 460 mm
 Envelop DAD Curve of Sub Basin

Area (sqkm) SPS (mm)
MAF at the Project Location    1.18
4000 376
5000 356 The PMP value                        438.8 mm
4205  371.9
Transposing Isohytel Map
Transposable Storms for the Project Site
Storm Centre Storm Peak
18 July 2000 Paoni 407
12 July, 1994 Chandur Railway 468
27 June, 1914 Parbhani 401

Transposed Storm Depth at the Project
Storm Centre Transposed depth
18 July 2000 Paoni 338
12 July, 1994 Chandur Railway 222
27 June, 1914 Parbhani 274

MAF for the 18 July, 2000 storm at Project           1.24
PMP value for the Project  419 mm
Statistical Method

1 day PMP read from Spatial Pattern Map is              470 mm 
Areal Reduction for project CA is                                   0.85
The PMP value for the CA is                                           400 mm
Case Studies

#53
Case Study – Sukta Project, MP
Sukta Project – Grid Point PMP

Grid Point PMP
104M‐2 452
104M‐3 479
103U‐1 451
103U‐2 475
Mean 464
Grid Points- Critical Storms

 The critical storms and MAF vary from grid point to grid point yielding
descrete values at grid points

Grid Critical Storms Area (SQKM) MAF

Points
104 M‐2 21 Aug 1916 Dug  Up to 200 1.32
03 Jul 1930 Seoni >200 1.20
104M‐3 15 Sep 1998 Gharadengri Up to 1000 1.02
03 Jul 1930 Seoni >1000 1.19
103U‐1 12 Jul 1994 Chandur railway Single  1.23
103U‐2 15 Sep 1998 Gharadengri Up to 1000 1.01
03 Jul 1930 Seoni >1000 1.15

 This variabilty from Grid Point to Grid Point restricts its utilisation for large
catchmnets

#56
Sukta Project – DAD curve of 15 Sep 1998 Gharadengri

SPS 472
MAF 1.02
PMP 481

#57
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Sukta Project – Isohyetal Map

Method PMP Value
(mm)
Grid Point PMP 464
DAD Curve 481
Detailed Storm Study 478
Bansujara Project - MP

#63
Areal Rainfall by DAD curve Vs Isohyetal map

Catchment Area of Bansujara Project 3225 sq km

Areal rainfall from DAD curve 490 mm
Areal Rainfall by DAD curve Vs Isohyetal map

Method Areal RF 

Depth (mm)
DAD Curve 490
Isohyetal Pattern 346

#65
Bansujara Project - Grid Points

#66
RRB Project, Narmada River

#67
RRB Project – Transposed Storm

#68
RRB Project – Transposed Storm at CG of total CA

#69
RRB Project – Transposed Storm at CG of Basania CA

#70
RRB Project – SPS values for different storm Positions

 SPS values for different storm positions

S.No. Storm Position Raghavapur Rosara Basania

1 At the CG of total CA 316.7 274.3 175.6
2 At the CG of Raghavapur CA 325.3 229.3 134.5
3 At the CG of Rosara CA 214.0 349.1 285.0
4 At the CG of Basania CA 192.2 314.7 349.6

 PMP values are computed considering the above SPS avlues and MAF as
1.21

 PMF computations fom the Case -1 & 2 yielded maximum values

#71
RRB Project – Grid Points

#72
Case Studies

S.N Project Name River  Catchment  One day PMP by  One day PMP 

Basin Area (sqkm) Grid Point values  by detailed 
(mm) storm analysis 
(mm)
1 Sukta Project, Narmada 450 464 478
Madhya Pradesh
2 Willingdon Dam Cauvery 130 712 658
Project, Tamilnadu
3 Mohanpura Chambal 3825 413 425
Project, Madhya
Pradesh
4 Raghavapur, Narmada 3164/ 4255/ Cannot be Different
Rosara Basania 4796 estimated as scenarios were
Project, MP project consists generated to
of cascading find out critical
dams situation for
each project
#73
Use of PMP Atlas
 Grid Point SPS/PMP is preferred for the catchment areas upto 200
sqkm .

 If elongation ratio is less than 1.5 and one of the grid point is close
to centre of catchment, grid Point SPS/PMS values can be used for
catchments up to 500 sqkm

 Envelop DAD values can be used for the catchments up to

500 sqkm

 For catchmnents of more than 500 sqkm, detailed storm study is

recommended.

 When an existing dam intercepts the project catchment, detailed

storm study is preferred.

#74
 The  PMP atlases are comprehensive data banks 
which will be useful not only for quick assessment 
of  design storm for a small or medium catchments 
but also for detailed  project specific storm 
studies. 

Thank You
#75
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