From Technologies to Markets

COVID-19 impact

A Yole
Perspective

© 2020
 A CONCOMITANCE WITH POTENTIALLY WORSENING FACTORS
WHAT HAS HAPPENED
WHAT COULD HAPPEN
Q1 2020
Spread of COVID-19 around
the world Snow-ball effect!
Q1 2020
Oil Price shock between Russia and
Saudi-Arabia 2021- 2022
At the same
time, or in close Geographic supply
January 2018 Q1 2020
proximity, there chain reorganization
have been Start of a new trade General or partial lockdown,
various situations progressively around the world
or shocks war between USA and
undermining China. 2021- 2022
global Q1- Q2 2020
sustainability and Looming economic
the global Historical economic recession due and financial crises
economy. to simultaneous negative shock on
December 2019 supply and demand
The first official case of
Q3 –Q4 2020
COVID-19 has ben confirmed
in China Revival of USA-China trade war

2018 2019 2020 2021+

COVID-19 impact - A Yole Perspective | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2020 2
AN UNLIKELY CONJUNCTION!

The current situation is an

COVID-19 pandemic effect has unlikely conjunction of 3
been worsened by other factors: crises!
o In March 2020, an oil price
war began between Russia COVID-19
and Saudi Arabia, and the
demand for oil products
dramatically decreased due to
the lockdown!
o The trade war between the
USA and China seems to have Oil crisis USA/China
been relaunched as a result of trade war
tension over China's
management of the health
crisis.

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WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF SIMULTANEOUS NEGATIVE SUPPLY AND DEMAND SHOCKS?
A significant reduction in the generated wealth
Price
• Simultaneous negative supply and demand
shocks on economy make initial curves S & D
D move to new curves Sc & Dc;
• Compared to equilibrium situation, we have:

Sc
• Strong destruction of the wealth created by
Dc producers (they sell at a slightly higher price but
in greatly reduced quantities);

E’
P’ • Large loss for consumers who pay a slightly
Consumer Surplus E’’’ S higher price though strongly reduce the
P’’’ Producer Surplus quantities consumed.
E
p
E’’
P’’

q’’’ q’’ q’ q
Quantity

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 DIFFERENT IMPACTS ON DIFFERENT MARKETS
How strong is the negative impact on the market
© Yole Développement, April 2020
High

Automotive & Civil aviation

Mobility

Automotive
Medium

* This includes both wired and wireless telecom (although dynamics

are different for each, we believe confinement is a factor pushing the
Low

deployment of new technologies (for 5G, data centers, transceivers

…) Time Scale

Short-term (6 months to 1 year) Mid-term (1 year to 3 years) Long-term (3 years +)

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 PRE-COVID SITUATION: 2019 MARKET DATA
DRAM (exabits)
NAND (GB)

10 000
CIS
Fan Out APU
1 000
BioMEMS
Sensing & Computing for ADAS
Shipments (millions)

Thermal Detectors
Point of Need
100
Radar

10
Si Photonics Computing hardware for HPC
GaAs (6’’ wafers)
Thermal Imagers
1
Computing hardware for Cloud Gaming
AI Hardware for Auto
SiC (6’ wafers)
0.1
Sensors for Robotic Vehicles

Power GaN (6’’ wafers) RF GaN (4’’ SiC & 6’’ Si wafers)

$10M $100M $1B $10B $100B

Market value ($M) COVID-19 impact - A Yole Perspective | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2020 6
 COVID IMPACT: 2020 MARKET DATA
DRAM (exabits)
Devices for which COVID-19 will have little/no impact NAND (GB)

Devices that will be negatively impact by COVID-19

10 000 CIS

Fan Out
APU
1 000 BioMEMS
Point of Need
Thermal Detectors
Shipment (millions)

Sensing and Computing for ADAS

100
Radar

10
Si Photonics Computing hardware for HPC
Thermal Imagers
Computing hardware for Cloud Gaming
1 GaAs (6’’ wafers)

AI hardware in Automotive
SiC (6’’ wafers)
0.1
Sensors for Robotic Vehicles
Power GaN (6’’ wafers) RF GaN (4’’SiC & 6’’ Si wafers)

$10M $100M $1B $10B $100B

Market value ($M) COVID-19 impact - A Yole Perspective | Report | www.yole.fr | ©2020 7