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Financial Analysis: Lecture: M.Fin Le Thi Khuyen Class: D02
Financial Analysis: Lecture: M.Fin Le Thi Khuyen Class: D02
ANALYSIS
TEAM 2
Hồ Sĩ Cư Lê Thị Mỹ Hạnh
Trần Thị Mỹ Duyên Đặng Thị Hồng Hạnh
Võ Thị Mỹ Duyên Trần Thị Mỹ Hảo
Nguyễn Trần Dũng Nguyễn Minh Hậu
Lê Thị Hồng Điệp Trần Thị Diệu Hiền
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY NOVALAND
& RECOMMENDATION
Novaland Group (NVL) is a company operating in the field of Investment and Development in Real Estate.
The report consists of 3 main parts:
1. Macro Analysis: Analyze the factors of interest rate, GDP, FDI... affecting the real estate industry.
2.Industry Analysis: An overview of the real estate market in Vietnam, competitive pressures among
enterprises in the industry.
3.Business activities of NVL: analysis of balance sheet, income sheet, and financial ratios of NVL.
From the perspective of investors, we suggest a NOT BUY recommendation on NVL. The following factors warrant
the NOT BUY recommendation:
1. THE SITUATION OF COVID-19 EPIDEMIC AFFECTS THE REAL ESTATE
The COVID-19 pandemic has gravely wounded the world economy with serious consequences. The real estate
was also affected, making profits decreased sharply. Real estate businesses have faced high competition with
other businesses in the market. Therefore, the rate of enterprise dissolution is very high. Besides, Real Estate
Markets Freeze Amid a Global Lockdown. The real estate market has not identified potential customers, leading to
high-end apartments accounting for a large proportion, but cheap apartments serving the majority are rare. Thus,
Covid-19 has restrained investors, causing investors to worry that investing in real estate at this time will face many
risks and low returns.
4. PROFITABILITY HAS GREAT VARIABILITY AND WAS BELOW THE COMPETITORS FOR ALMOST
RATIOS
In the period 2018-2020, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic has had a great impact on the real estate industry
in general and Novaland in particular.
NVL's return on invested capital (ROI) has fluctuated continuously, especially due to market volatility, which has
caused this index to decrease by nearly half in 2019 compared to 2018. In 2020, although there was an increase by
10.21%, still lower than VHM (12.78%). The ROA and ROE ratios were also more volatile than the competitor, VHM's.
In 2020, NVL's ROA was lower than 4.29%, and ROE was lower than 10.02% compared to VHM's
Market Ratios: The company's Price to Book ratio (P/B) decreased over the years, but only slightly decreased
(down 0.45% from 2018 to 2020). Similar to P/B, P/E also decreased over the years. But P/E dropped sharply,
especially in 2019 and 2020 (down 6.68). Compared to Vinhomes, the company's P/E is still lower and the P/E
difference has widened.
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION NOVALAND
Chairman of
BUI the Board of
THANH Directors of
NHON Novaland
group
COMPANY PROFILE
Company’s name: NOVALAND GROUP
Stock code: NVL
Field of activities: real estate
Vision:
Leading economic groups in the fields of:
Real Estate, Creating a tourist destination,
Development of transport infrastructure.
Mission: Community building, Build
destination, Cultivate joy.
.
FIGURE 1: Ownership Structure
In the current shareholder structure of
Novaland, Chairman Bui Thanh Nhon is the
largest shareholder with 21.28% of the
shares. In addition, his wife and son also
own a total of 10% of the family's company.
NOVALAND
MACRO - ECONOMIC
ANALYSIS
5. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
In the field of real estate, businesses must pay attention
to factors affecting the industry such as: climate,
working enviroment, legal compliance, technology
improvement.
After the land fever to the beginning of Q2 2021, the
market began to level off. In Dong Nai: Through the
review to 2021, Dong Nai has so far had 39 projects
delayed putting land into use with a total area of
507.53ha. In particular, the People's Committee of Dong
Nai province has issued decisions and documents
directing the recovery and cancellation of decisions on
land allocation and leasing for 12 projects with a total
area of 33.85ha. Real estate projects are simultaneously
revoked most violations of delays, delays in land use,
delays in putting into use.
INDUSTRY NOVALAND
ANALYSIS
GLOBAL REAL ESTATE MARKET
According to a report by the Foreign Investment Agency, the amount of FDI into domestic
real estate in the first seven months of 2021 only reached 1.17 billion USD, decreased more than
1.6 billion USD, corresponding to -58% over the same period last year. Therefore, the real estate
business ranks third among the investment attraction sectors.
The number of enterprises completing dissolution procedures increased, and newly
established enterprises decreased in 2020. The registered capital of freshly licensed projects
from foreign investment was also reduced significantly. In 2020, despite the pandemic, Vietnam
still had several real estate projects with capital increases by foreign investors. However, in the
first seven months of this year, in the face of the increasingly complicated situation of the
Covid-19 outbreak, Vietnam did not have new projects; huge capital poured in as in previous
years, only new projects, waiting for new projects, Start-up plan.
NOVALAND
PORTER’S
FIVE
FORCES
MODEL
Profit of financial activities in 2018 was only 1,476,803,929,685 VND and increased year by year. In 2020,
operating profit was very high, it is almost as high as EBIT and exceeded the net operating profit of NVL. The
proportion of profit from financial activities began to increase over the years from 42.13% in 2014 to 95.7%.
Thus, it showed that the enterprise had not focused on Operating Profit. However, the financial investment
capacity of NVL improved.
1. NET REVENUES: In general, net revenue from 2018 to 2020 tends to increase. However, net
revenue fell sharply in 2019.
Net revenue from sales and service provision of the company at the end of 2019 is
1,263,810,484,524 VND, decreased 2,539,863,828,738 VND (corresponding -66.77%) compared to
2018.
By the end of 2020, net revenue from sales and service provision reached 2,576,906,682,211 VND,
increased 1,313,096,197,687 VND (corresponding 103.90%) over the same period last year.
OVERVIEW ABOUT BUSINESS ACTIVITIES NOVALAND
2. EBIT: In general, EBIT from 2018 to 2020 tends to increase. However, EBIT has dropped seriously.
Total Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) at the end of 2019 of Novaland was 2,086,332,496,200 VND,
decreased 1,419,345,225,224 VND (corresponding -50.11%) compared to 2018. Because of:
1. Operating Profit decreased by 2,005,786,172,289VND (corresponding -99.1%) compared to 2018 so EBIT
decreased.
2. Profits from financial activities, external investments increased 647,211,413,208 VND (corresponding 44%)
compared to 2018. Because in 2019, Novaland Group decided to transfer Phuoc Long Investment and
Development Company Limited, Van Phat Real Estate Development and Investment Joint Stock Company
and Nova Real Estate Company Limited.
3. The company incurred many unusual expenses, causing other expenses and losses increased by nearly
11 times compared to 2018 (of which 90% came from fines).
However, by the end of 2020, EBIT reached 5,097,945,794,527 VND, increased 3,011,613,298,327 VND
(corresponding 144%) compared to 2019. The reason came from the growth in Operating profit, increased
646,213,486,490 VND (corresponding 36 times) compared to 2018. Moreover, revenue from financial activities
also grew strongly (increased 81%) compared to the same period last year. However, the company's other
expenses in 2020 were still huge, causing other investment activities decreased 6.74 times compared to 2019
due to the sudden increase in penalties and the value of recovered investment properties.
3. EBT:
Earnings Before Tax (EBT) in 2019 was 434,354,242,894 VND, a sharp decrease of 1,375,039,924,475 VND,
corresponding -76% compared to 2018. The reason for the decrease in EBT came from the decrease in EBIT.
Interest expenses also decreased but not significantly, only 2.6%.
By the end of 2020, EBT reached 3,133,763,691,638 VND, an increase of 2,699,409,448,744 VND, increase amount
of 6.21 times compared to 2019. The reason is that interest expenses increased and EBIT also increased again,
showing that NVL has expanded loans for profitable investment purposes and improved the company's financial
position.
OVERVIEW ABOUT BUSINESS ACTIVITIES NOVALAND
4. EAT: General conclusion, EAT from 2018 to 2020 had an impressive growth. EAT has
doubled in 2018-2020.
Although this year, the enterprise has paid CIT and other expenses also increased significantly, but due to
a sharp increase in revenue from financial activities by 81%, NVL's EAT still increased. And EAT of NVL in
2018-2020 has been volatile.
In 2018, the company’s net working capital reached -1,774,655,695,204 VND. In comparison with the last
year, net working capital of NVL in 2019 down to -116,177,931,325 VND, and continued to fall sharply to
-1,639,053,317,166 VND in 2020.
The net working capital was negative and decreasing continuously in 2018-2020. It showed that NVL's the
volatility of Current Ratio and the company's financial standing also became less safe.
Because Long-term capital didn’t enough to invest total long-term assets, the company used bank capital
to sponsor for long-term assets (low WACC).
In 2018-2020, Equity Ratio decreased from 41% to 36%: showing that the owner's contribution is still quite
low compared to the debt. The company was dependent on debts.
Debt to Equity Ratio (D/E) from 2018 to 2020 is 143%, 156% and 179%, respectively. This ratio is a financial
ratio that measures a company's use and management of debt. The increase in the company's D/E showed
that the company depended on high risk debt financing.
Financial Leverage Ratio tent to increase gradually. From 2018 to 2020 increased by 27%. Financial Leverage
Ratio is the extent to which debt is used in the total capital of a business to increase ROE or EPS. The
increase in financial leverage ratio made the company's debt burden was larger and larger.
Short-term debt to Total Assets Ratio in 2020 was 15.6%, increasing by 1.6% compared to 2019 but decreasing
by 13.7% compared to 2018. This ratio measures the company's short-term debt to finance total assets.
FINANCIAL RATIOS ANALYSIS NOVALAND
INVENTORY
TURNOVER
Through the calculation results, it showed that the inventory turnover of NVL in 2019 decreased compared
to 2018. Inventory turnover was 0.596 and 0.4318 times, respectively.
Inventory turnover in 2020 reached 0.713 times, increased by 0.2815 compared to 2019. Due to the decreased
of inventory compared to 2019. It showed the company's business situation has gradually improved.
However, the inventory turnover was volatile, showing the company's business situation is vulnerable to
changes in the market. Therefore, it will cause many risks for NVL as well as investors.
INVENTORY
The value of inventory at the end of 2019 increased by 3,432,851,187 (corresponding 0.15%) compared to the
end of 2018. The reason for the increase in Inventory was that the value of the real estate for sale sharply
increased (corresponding 300.17%).
Inventories at the end of 2020 decreased by 23,594,936,456 VND (corresponding 1%) compared to the end
of 2020. The decrease came from the decrease in real estate goods (corresponding 17.15%) and a decrease in
real estate for sale ( corresponding 47.83%) while other factors increased less.
FINANCIAL RATIOS ANALYSIS NOVALAND
CURRENT RATIO: Thus, looking at the ratio of short-term debt solvency, short-term solvency of the company
wasn't good. The ratio of short-term debt solvency is lower than 1, proving that current assets are incapable
of ability to offset debts when incurred. In 2019, the company's short-term debt ratio was 0.98 times. That is,
1 dong of short-term debt is guaranteed by 0.98 dong of current assets that the business has. This indicator
increased by 0.13 times, corresponding 15.29% compared to 2018. By 2020, this coefficient decreased, only
0.81 times, lower than 2018.
This coefficient of NLV was lower than VMH and by 2020 only 1/3 of VMH. It proved that current assets was
incapable of ability to offset debts when incurred of NVL was higher than VHM.
QUICK RATIO: The quick liquidity of the public is less than 1 at a time and is about 0.58 on average, and
tends to decrease, only 35% when compared with VHM. Quick ratio shows that current assets have low
liquidity, equivalent to 58% of current assets, and are relatively stable.
DAYS OF INVENTORY ON HAND (DOH): The calculation results showed that the DOH of Novaland was still
very large (about 657 days on average), and tent to decrease. However, it was still higher than the average
DOH of VHM (about 206 days on average). Therefore, the business took a lot of time in selling inventory.
From 2018-2020, DSO of NVL tent to increase from 178 days to 320
DAYS SALES OUTSTANDING (DSO):
days, corresponding 80%. However, the DSO of NVL was still lower than the average DSO of VMH (about 873
days). Thus, it showed that NVL's credit policy is quite strict, which affected the company's business
situation. In addition, it showed that appropriation of the company also decreased.
In 2018-2020, the company’s P/B decreased from 3.68 to 3.23, corresponding 12%.
Compared with Vinhomes, the company's P/B was extremely lower. The market price index
compared to the book price reflects that NVL did not do well in increasing the assets for the
owners and the maximum market value of the company. From the perspective of the owner, a
low P/B ratio may be a sign that the company is undervalued.
The company’s P/E decreased from early 2018 to and end of 2020.
As of 31/12/2018, the company's P/E of 17.26 means that to have a profit of the company, the
market has to invest 17.26 dong.
As of 31/12/2019, the company's P/E of 16.93 means that to have a profit of the company, the
market must invest 16.93 dong. The market dropped 0.33 dong due to a decrease in the market
price of one share.
As of 31/12/2020, the company's P/E of 10.07 means that to have a profit of the company, the
market has to invest 10.07 dong.
Compared with Vinhomes, the company's P/E is still lower and the P/E difference has widened.
NOVALAND
REFERENCES
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REFERENCES NOVALAND
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tư/BCTC/2021/nvlg_bctc-31.12.2020_tv_nocolor.pdf
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toan_2019_tv_color.pdf
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tích tài chính doanh nghiệp Trường ĐHNH TP.HCM.
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triển kinh tế - xã hội 5 năm 2021 - 2025.
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NOVALAND