Population

Dynamic
AS LEVEL HUMAN GEOGRAPHY
TOPICS TO BE DISCUSSED
Natural Increase
Demographic
and changes in
Transition
Population

Management of
Population and
Population
Resources
Growth
Demographic Changes in Recent Time
• Millions of years ago –
population growth rate was
0.1%
• One of the first rise in the rate
of population growth came
around the time of the
Industrial Revolution
• Population has been
increasing very rapidly since
the 1950’s Baby boom
• We are currently at 7 billion
and will most likely be
reaching 8 billion in 13 years
Demographic Changes in Recent
Times
• Most of the population growth occur in LEDCs –
since 1950
• MEDCs had their peak growth nearer to the first
Industrial Revolution
• Mid-1960s – population growth rate in LEDC was
2.4%
• By 1990s had drop to 1.8%
• Rate of population growth in MEDCs is now very
low
• While only in nations like Africa do we still see
VERY high rate of growth
Population Density
Ranking of population total
1. East Asia – 1.58 billion
2. South Asia – 1.5 billion
3. Central-South Africa – 700 M
4. Southeast Asia – 600 M
5. Middle East – 550 M
6. South America – 550 M
7. Europe – 400 M
8. North America – 340 M
9. Eastern Europe – 220 M
10. Russia – 145 M
11. Japan – 127 M
12. Mexico -115 M
13. Central Asia – 100 M
14. Mediterranean – 70 M
15. Central America – 45 M
16. Caribbean – 40 M
17. Oceania – 23 M
Where do people live (settle)
Factors affecting where people settle
1. Climate
2. Geology
3. Morphology, relief
4. Vegetation
Climate
• Polar regions are not densely
populated (Arctic, Antarctic,
Greenland, Tibetan Plateau,
Canada)
• Arid areas are not densely
populated (Sub-Saharan, Victoria
desert, Arabian desert, Western
coast of Africa, Kalahari, Gobi)
• Tropic regions – usually quite
populated
• Mediterranean climates are mild
• Mid-latitude areas – densely
populated
Geology
• Fertile soil – very
attractive
• Coastal Margin – usually
flat – develop into a Port
town
• Hard, impermeable
surface – difficult to farm
in
• Frozen soil in Permafrost
– not suitable
• Arid soil in desert – not
suitable
Natural Hazards
• People may avoid
volcanoes
• Areas that can be
flooded
• Mountainous regions in
risk of mass movement
• However, certain
volcanoes offer fertile
soil (Mt. Pinatubo)
Morphology/ Landforms
• Mountainous areas are not densely
populated (Rocky system, Himalayas,
Alps, Andes, Kilimanjaro)
• Plains/ Floodplains/ Delta – Populated
Vegetation
• Too vegetated not well populated
(Amazon) – Too dense
• Coniferous forest – difficult to settle near
• Grasslands are more highly populated
Human impacts to population
distribution
• Historical Factors
• Economic Factors
• Transport/ Communication
• Political Factors
Historical Factor
• Stable civilizations
(China, India,
Southeast Asia)
• The civilization started
slow
• The long continuous
growth
• Added up to a large
population
• THIS HAS TO BE
CONDUCIVE OF THE
PHYSICAL AREA
Historical Factors
• Europe – Industrial Revolution marked the
first growth of population
• North America followed
• Allowed for more availability of food
• Lower death rate
Economic Factors
• Rural areas of
Farmland are not well
populated –
subsistence farming
low in population
• Areas with intensive
farming – more popular
(Netherland)
• Urban areas –
economy of scale,
agglomeration of
businesses are more
popular
4 most populated area
• East Asia
• South Asia
• Europe
• Eastern coast of United State
Components of Population Change
• P = (B-D) + M
• Population = (Birth - Death) + Migration
• Can be expressed in absolute term – real
numbers
• Can be expressed in rate per thousands
Terms and concepts
• Crude Birth Rate: The Number of Birth per
1000 people per year, not taking in account
the gender and age (to be fair, the ratio
should only be limited to woman and to
people whose age are capable of child birth)
• Fertility Rate: the number of live birth per
1000 woman per year
• Total Fertility Rate: The average number of
live birth born to a woman in her lifetime
Definition
• Replacement fertility is the total fertility
rate at which women give birth to enough
babies to sustain population levels.
 Fertility Rate
The measurement of population growth
Links
• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFgh9
WU0lPs&list=PLBFE251E4ED632C59&in
dex=2
Demographic Factors
• Other demographic factors
• If Infant mortality Rate is high, parents
would have more kids to compensate
• High death rate would always lead to
higher birth rate
• More young, economically active
population
Social and Cultural Factors
• Some cultures value boys
• Some cultures value large
families
• Certain religions value large
families
• Certain religions oppose
birth control
• Many society condemns
barren women with no child
• Low literacy among female
• Woman’s rights to make
decisions
• Education on birth control
Economic Factors
• Children may be used to
work in farms
• Children are expected to be
a financial asset for when
one grows older
• With MEDCs, Children
became liability
• MEDC: High taxes,
education, more housing,
high living cost
• Most people in MEDCs,
including women are
employed – do not have
time for kids
Health Care and its effect
• High level of Health
care can reduce Infant
Mortality Rate –
Reduce Fertility Rate
• Available
Contraceptive and birth
control
• Lower death rate
• HIV/ STD
Fertility Decline
• Fertility rate has been declining in many
countries around the world
• Replacement level fertility: The number of
children needed to replace a death of the
parents – 2.1 (0.1 to adjust for IMR)
 Reasons for Fertility Decline
• Improvement in healthcare = less
Infant Mortality/ less mortality as a
whole
• Birth controls – made available in
LEDCs/ MEDCs
• Government policies/ awareness
on population growth and effects
on development
• Emancipation of woman/ more
education
• Industrialization = less requirement
for children to work in farms
• Many other factors…
 MORTALITY
The measurement of population growth
Factors affecting Infant Mortality
• The improvement in hygiene – clean water
leads to better health of the mother
• The improvement in healthcare
• Improvement in education – more doctors
• Proximity of hospitals/ clinics – transport
and infrastructure
• Education of woman – better ante-natal
care
Effects on the Mortality Rate
• Crude death rate –
heavily influenced by
age structure (older
ages – more deaths)
• Life Expectancy/ Infant
Mortality rate is a better
indication of quality of
life/ mortality
• Most LEDCs: Diseases
common are parasitic
and infectious e.g. Aids
Epidemiological transition
• Most MEDCs: Diseases
common are degenerative
(diabetes, heart disease)
• Health care
• Education regarding
health/ hygiene
• Infrastructures - sewers,
hospitals, clinics
• Nutrition – leads to poor
immune system
• Environment – in some
urban areas of LEDCs –
air pollution is common
Interpretations of the Pyramid
• Population Structure: The composition of a
population, the most important elements
are age and sex
• Population Pyramid: A bar chart, arranged
vertically, that shows the distribution of a
population by age and sex
Website on population pyramid
• https://populationpyramid.net/
Dependency Ratio
• Too young or too old to work = dependants
• Dependency ratio = (number of young + old)/
(the rest)
• 60/100 ratio means for every 100
economically active people, there are 60
depending on them
• In MEDCs = Dependency is around 50 -75 –
mostly elderly population
• In LEDCs = Dependency is higher – mostly
young population
The Demographic Transition
• A theory/ model that helps explain the
structure of the population and how
population changes over time as the
society evolves.
The Demographic Transition
Model
Stage 1
• Birth rate and death
rate fluctuate at high
level
• Low rate of
population growth
• Exist with nomadic
tribes
• At this stage –
human is at the
expense of nature
Stage 1
• Reasons for high birth rate:
1. In agricultural society: need farm labors
2. No contraceptive/ birth control
3. Lack of good hygiene = high Infant Mortality rate –
leads to higher fertility rate
4. High death rate – always associated with high birth
rate
5. Birth = signs of virility for men and fertility for women
6. Lack of policies for population control/ no
government/ taxes – living cost low
7. Due to Religious reasons – higher child bearing
8. Due to Early marriages – a patriarchal society-
‘women are just there to give birth’
 Stage 1
• Reasons for high death rate:
1. Bad sanitation/ hygiene –
susceptibility to disease – also
breeding grounds for diseases
(Malaria, Cholera, Bubonic,
Kwashiorkor)
2. Lack of medical care
3. Lack of communication/ awareness
of diseases
4. Natural disasters – no way to
predict/ prevent
5. Nomadic lifestyle – conflicts/ raiding
- lack of a uniform law
6. Lost of natural resources – famine
due to uncertain food supply
Stage 2
• Signifies the fall the initial fall of Birth rate
• Most people will associate this with
industrialization
• A huge part of the reduction in death rate
however is a credit to medical
advancement
Stage 2
• Reasons for the fall of Death
rate:
1. Improvement in medical care
(Discovery of antibiotic)
2. Child mortality reduces
3. More transportation = higher
accessibility to health care all
around…
4. Which is a result of
urbanization – concepts of
having essential amenities
accessible to all people
5. Industrialization/ improvement
in transport network – better
distribution of food supply
6. Food production improves
Stage 2
• Why did stage 2 not see a decline in birth
rate?
1. Birth rate is influenced almost mainly by
social ideas, religions and culture. They
are much harder to change than the
technology
2. A reduction in birth rate will only come
when the country reaches its fully
industrialized stage in stage 3
Stage 3
• Birth rate falls
rapidly while
death rate falls
slowly and
steadily
• Slow increase in
population –
one that is
slowing down
• Usually occurs
in fully
industrialized
economy
Stage 3
• Reasons for the fall in birth rate
1. Improvement and distributions of birth
control technologies/ drugs
2. Generally lower death rate, and much
lower infant mortality rate
3. Fully industrialized economy – no more
need for child laborer
4. Reduction in fertility – as a result of
emancipation/ education of women
Stage 4
• Birth rate and death rate fluctuates at low
rate
• Natural increase low
• Post-industrial society
• Most ly developed MEDCs nations
Stage 5
• When birth rate finally falls below death
rate
• Death rate may remain high due to
degenerative diseases, alcohol and STDs
Will Africa follow the DTM?
• 3 Views on Mortality fall
1. When Mortality/IMR falls, fertility will
subsequently fall – to compensate!
2. Education changing the mindset of
people – the changes the norm of family
size – emancipation of women
Criticisms of the Model
• Too Eurocentric – based upon Europe
• Doesn’t take in account the recent decrease in
rate of growth among the MEDC nations – 5th
Stage?
• Migration has not been accounted for
• Will certain nations in Africa industrialize quickly
enough
• Certain nations in Southeast Asia have effectively
skipped stages
• New LEDCs are influenced by international
agenda - THAILAND
DTM in LEDCs
• In stage 2 – Birth rate is usually higher
• Death rate fell more steeply – with
different causes (less war, less famine,
diseases cured)
• Countries with large base population may
experience a lag time between stage 2
and 3 – population momentum
• Fall in fertility steeper in stage 3
 Ageing Population
Life Expectancy/ Death rates/ Results of
stage 5 of the DTM
Ageing Population
• A phenomenon that usually occurs in MEDCs
• Is also a case in LEDCs (pop. Over 60 to
quadruple by 2050)
• Caused by a declining birth and death rate
• Decline in fertility + A constantly high/ increasing
Life Expectancy
• Indicated by the rise in the median age (Life
Expectancy)
• Global Expectancy (1950-46, 1970-60, 2050-74)
• In MEDC – aged population outnumbering the
youth
Ageing Population
• Population aged over 80 is the falsest
growing section of the global population
• Population changes in LEDCs have been
faster then MEDCs – most likely due to the
quicker process of industrialization – or the
abundance of natural resources – or the
existence of technological advancement
elsewhere
 Effects of Ageing Population
• Healthcare system under
strains
• Pensions under strain
• Government funding
under strains
• Strains on the
economically active
population
• An ongoing – self serving
process
• Difficult to overturn – can’t
increase fertility nor can
death rates be increased
Taking care of the Elderly
• Elderly left to their own devices? (Pay-as-you-go
system)
• Work of the youthful population (Asian culture)
• Government to take care of
• Financial planning is needed for retirees
• Increased taxation to prevent elderly poverty
• Technology?
• Changing our perception to ageing – can elderly
be the economically active?- childcare can be
conducted by elders – volunteers in charity
Population and Development
• Development: The improvement in the
quality of life including wealth , education
and health
• A complicated, perceptive concept
• Includes those
Population and Development
• There are strong positive correlations
between low rate of population growth and
economic development
• However the relationship is complex
• The lack of investment and political
instability are known as the more possible
causes of social decline
Causes for developments:
- Increase in local food supply
- Improvement in investment and economy
– increase in incomes
- More productions (INDUSTRIALIZATION)
- Higher literacy rate
- Extension of electricity grids to rural areas
- Improvement in the transport network
Question to ask…
• Has the increase in population been the
cause for the lack of development all this
time – or is it the other way round?
Demographic Indices
• Check figure 1.25
• Infant Mortality rate and death rate have both
reduced over the year
• IMR is used to measure socio-economic
development
• A decline in fertility have been a case
• Child mortality rate reduced – due to better health
care
• Maternal Mortality rate – A great indication of
development – high differences between LEDCs
and MEDCs
 Child Mortality
 The number of children who died
before their 5th birthdays per 1000
live birth
• A factor that has been falling
significantly
• Due to improvement in healthcare,
urbanizing society, changes in age
structure
• Breast-feeding provide immunity
• Successes in Small pox eradication
program
• Measles vaccination
• Unicefs: Majority of child’s death are
still preventable = more work to be
done
Maternal Mortality
The death of a woman during or shortly
after pregnancy
• 1/6000 in MEDCs
• 1/22 in LEDCs
• Affected by Pre-natal care/ attendance at
birth
 Carrying Capacity
 Carrying capacity is the
amount of people/ organisms
an environment can support
with its resources
• This is a fluid concept –
resources accessibility can
increase with the
improvement of technology
• Growth of the economy has
had massive influences on the
resources – they are
becoming depleted and the
‘waste sinks’ are becoming full
• The distribution of resources
is not fair
Theory of Optimum population
• States that there is a point when the
growth of population will result in
economic development that leas to the
highest standard of living – The number of
population that will result in the highest
standard of living in an areas
Definition bunches
 Biocapacity: The capacity of an area or a
given ecosystem to generate an ongoing
supply of resources and to absorb its waste.
 Ecological footprint: A sustainability indicator
that expresses the relationship between
population and the natural environment. It
takes into account the use of natural
resources by a country’s population
 Global hectare: One hectare of biologically
productive space with world average
productivity.
Ecological Footprint
• The sum of all crop lands, grazing lands, fishing grounds,
timbers to produce and resources both in objects and lands
required for absorbing the waste
• Biocapacity: The level of resources the earth has – expressed
in global hectares
• Issue: Biocapacity(supply) – Ecological Footprint(Demand) =
Negative number – hence the world is exceeding its limit of
resource usage
• Carbon footprint is the dominant element
• This is different between countries
• Effected by: The size of population, the type of resources
being used, the way they impact the natural environment
• Global trades had had great influences on the footprints
• ECOLOGICAL OVERSHOOT
Food Shortages
• Mostly occurring in Africa
• Can be both human/ natural
problems
• Can have effects on children
– in early stages
• Malnutrition can have long
term effects in inducing
mortality
• Reduces people’s capacity to
work
• Cycle of: Ill health – low
productivity -
underdevelopment
Food Shortages
• Caused by: Soil Exhaustion, Drought,
flood, Cyclones, pests, diseases
• Human causes: Lack of investment, Rapid
growth of population, political instability/
war hindering the economy, transport
difficulties
• Case studies: Sudan
Thomas Malthus
• A British demographer/
reverend
• Published the essay on
population growth in 1798
• States that food grows
arithmetically while population
grows exponentially
• Population will soon exceed
resources
• At which point - population
will begin to decrease in form
of checks
Thomas Malthus
• Preventive check:
Population decrease in the
form of abstinence –
promotion of lower fertility/
postponing marriages
• Positive check: Population
is reduces by increase in
death rate: famine, drought,
disease, war, natural
disasters
Malthus’ views effects on the
Irish Potato famine
The Roles of technologies in
resource developments
• Global use of resources has changed
• As we know – development/ carrying
capacity is a fluid concept
• Development has been enhanced by
improvement in Technologies
 New Energy Resources
• Uranium as nuclear
power source in France
• Wind farms in the
Netherlands
• Tidal powers
• Developments of
Hydrological powers
• Solar powers in Japan
The Green Revolution
 The Introduction of high-yielding seeds
and modern agricultural techniques in
developing countries
Food Production
• Innovation in food production and distribution
– fed the rising population of the world
• HVP programs in India in 1966-67
• Hybrid varieties of: wheat, rice, maize.
Sorghum and millet
• Refrigeration/ uses of hormones – allow
transport of food to the more remote areas
• Higher accessibilities play a part
• Increase in market forces, industrialization
and surplus of workforce – plays a positive
feedback loop to development
 The Green Revolution (HYV)
Advantages
• Yields are twice/ four times
higher than traditional
practices/ varieties
• Shorter growth seasons =
extra crops introduced
• Increase incomes – better
seeds/ fertilizers/ pesticides
• More varied rural diet
• Improvement in infrastructures
as market develops
• Employments increase with
more productions
• Increase in irrigation
Disadvantage
• Costly in terms of economy
• Consequences to the
environment
• Requires more weed controls/
more susceptible to diseases
• Lower income farmers still left
out
• Expansion of irrigation – higher
salinization
• Inferior taste
• Lower in minerals/ vitamins
Perennial Crops
• Crops that grow all year long
• Overcomes the factors of climate/ time
• Allow for higher annual yields/ production
The Role of Constraints
• Constraint in resources can cause out-
migration
• It can result in population decline in
extreme conditions
Overpopulation
 Overpopulation: Where there are too
many people in relative to the available
resources and technologies
• In basic terms it is caused by: lack of food,
lack of clean water, high population
density, land constraint, lack of clean air
• In nowadays terms it is caused by: Lack of
Education, Waste disposal, Housing,
Health Care
Underpopulation
• Where there too few people to fully exploit
the resources efficiently or not enough
collective learning for full improvement of
technologies
• In basic terms: Lack of development, low
population growth, at the mercy of nature,
high death rate, raiding/ conflicts
• In nowadays terms: Apply more to MEDCs
e.g. Australia ; lack of development despite
abundance of resources, lesser market
forces, low population growth, out-migration
Population capacity
• Increasing population: Full exploitation of
resources – lead to technological innovations
• However: Increase pressure on resources
result in a decline
 The optimum population is one that achieves
a given aim in the most effective way
 Economic Optimum: The level of population
that, through the production of goods and
services, provides the highest average
standard of living
Population Ceiling
• The population ceiling involves simply the
carrying capacity of a population
• A population may grow to reach an
equilibrium near the carrying capacity (the
ceiling)
• Or it may experience a dieback
• Population Ceiling is the population size
beyond which the population cannot grow
due to limiting factors caused by population
pressure
Population Adjustment Overtime
• S-curves: Begins with exponential growth
– due to population pressure, the growth
rate slows down, becomes stable and
tapers off
• J-curves: Population grows exponentially,
and the it suddenly collapses – population
exceeds carrying capacity before diebacks
Management of Natural Increase
 Population Policy: A government’s stated
aim on an aspect of its population, and the
measures taken to achieve that aim
 Pro-natalist policy: A population policy
that aims to encourage more births
through the use of incentives
 Anti-natalist policy: A population policy
designed to limit fertility thorough the use
of both incentives and deterrant
Management of natural increase
Family planning programme: A programme
that regulates the number and spacing of
children in a family through the practice of
contraception or other methods of birth
controls
Civil Liberties: The rights and freedoms that
protect an individual from the state
Selection Abortion: An abortion performed
because of the gender of the fetus or when a
genetic test is performed that detects
undesirable results