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Machine Learning Based Support System for Students to Select Stream (Subject)

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Recent Patents on Computer Science 2019, 12, 1-9 1

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Machine Learning Based Support System for Students to Select Stream

(Subject)

Kapil Sethi1, Varun Jaiswal1,* and Mohd Dilshad Ansari2

1
School of Electrical and Computer Science, Shoolini University of Biotechnology and Management Sciences, Solan,
Himachal Pradesh, India; 2Department of Computer Science & Engineering, CMR College of Engineering & Technolo-
gy, Hyderabad, India

ARTICLE HISTORY
Received: October 01, 2018
Revised: November 03, 2018
Accepted: November 08, 2018
DOI:
10.2174/2213275912666181128120527
Keywords: Secondary education, subject selection, support system, career, student, machine learning.
Abstract: In most of the countries, students have to select a subject/stream in secondary education
phase. Selection of subject/stream is crucial for students because further their career proceeds ac-
cording to their selection. Mostly subject/stream selection cannot be changed in the further career.
Inappropriate selection of subjects due to parental pressure, lack of information etc. can lead to lim-
ited success in the selected stream. Guidance for subject/stream selection based on information of
successful scholars of their stream and information of students such as interest, family background,
previous education and other associated can enhance the success in career. A data mining and ma-
chine learning based methods were developed on the above information. Data from the different in-
stitution and students of two different streams were used for training and testing purpose. Different
machine learning algorithms were used and methods with high accuracy (86.72) were developed.
Developed method can be extended and used for different subject/stream selection.

1. INTRODUCTION be helpful to the students to some extent because their sug-

The aim of education requires three needs to be fulfilled
i.e. human capital theory, discourses and capability approach
[1]. Out of three stages of education i.e. primary, secondary
and higher secondary [2], secondary education is of utmost
importance since it motivates the career aspiration of the
students and selecting subjects. Every year thousands of sec-
ondary school students in every country face the challenge of
choosing their career stream/subjects [3]. Selecting a career
in a definite stream describes the future of a student [4].
However, it is challenging for a student to choose a stream
(subjects) at an initial age. Selection of inappropriate sub-
jects by the students due to peer and parental stress [2, 5] or
lack of proper information may outcome failure or dropout
in a further career. Hence, it is essential for the students to
choose the appropriate stream carefully best suited to them
for better and successful direction.
In-stream selection, a large number of factors play their
influencing role [6, 7]. Stream selection under influence of
celebrities, famous personalities like role models, actors,
actresses and politicians [5] often fail to discover their inter-
nal potential,capabilities,and attitude which may result in the
selection of inappropriate stream [8]. In some conditions,
providing support through online career guidance [9], teach-
ers, tuition centres and coaching institutes [10, 11] proves to
*Address correspondence to this author at the School of Electrical and
Computer Science, Shoolini University of Biotechnology and Management
Sciences, Solan, Himachal Pradesh, India;
E-mail: computationalvarun@gmail.com
gestions are mostly based on current trends and market de-
mands, which may end up in selecting a wrong stream irre-
spective of their (student) interest and their early perfor-
mances [8]. Overall available systems which help the stu-
dents to choose the stream /subject do not use data mining
(DM) and machine learning (ML) methods based on data of
successful scholar of their different stream/subject. It was
also observed that presently career counselling methods are
not based on practical observation or technical formulas to
provide an accurate selection of the stream/subject [12].
Instead, they are expensive, require time and are away from
the reach of many potential students [13].
Generally, students select medical, non-medical, com-
merce, arts, and social science stream for bright future [14].
When the students secure good marks people suggest and
expect to opt science stream. In many countries like India
secondary education is a more important phase [15, 16] for
students as they have to select a major stream of their career.
Indian education system is not flexible in terms of changing
subjects once students have opted. For example, a commerce
student cannot opt for medical and non- medical
stream.Generally,stream selection for career happens in three
ways (Fig. 1); the first one is selecting stream influenced by
parents and relatives, the second one is selecting stream by
own choice and the third one is selecting stream by the help
of career guidance/counsellors [6].
Many developers design various advising/guidance tools
like PAS [17], IS A- DVISOR[18], ONLINE ADVISOR
[19], JESS [20] and APE for under graduate (UG), postgrad-

2213-2759/19 $58.00+.00 © 2019 Bentham Science Publishers

2 Recent Patents on Computer Science, 2019, Vol. 12, No. 1 Sethi et al.

uate students (PG) or university students using different plat-
forms [17]. In Table 1, all of the guidance tools are focused
on higher education courses and certainly not based on data
of successful scholars of their stream. These tools spotlight
only academic course plan, different courses offered current
subject demand and to reduce the faculty burden [18, 20].
They only display information about subjects and take two
or three subjective tests. They do not use DM and ML ap-
proaches for their tools.However,this information is not good
enough for the students to decide the stream because these
do not consider the influence factor like study interest, fami-
ly background and career motivation. Furthermore, these
systems do not provide acceptable results for higher
education. This generates a need for a system which could
guide the students by considering the factors like student’s
interest, family background, potential history of previous
education.
To the best of our knowledge, there is no support system
which can help secondary level students for stream/subject
(Medical and Non-Medical) selection. The current system is
derived for the students to choose the subjects like medical
[21] and non- medical [22] based on machine learning ap-
proaches. The design system is based on the data of success-
ful students of medical and non- medical streams.The study
aims at the development of a support system to help students
by answering a set of questions.This support system uses a
machine learning [23, 24]approach for predicting the stream
of the student at a higher secondary level. Current approach
deals with data acquisition focusing subject of interest fol-
lowing usage of neural networks. The performance of the
model is measured by calculating performance matrices i.e.
accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Matthews correlation coef-
ficient (MCC) and ROC curves. High accuracy justifies the
reliability.

2. RELATED WORK
As per Ryan S.J.d. Baker’s views educational data min-
ing method of learning decomposition (it is a kind of rela-
tionship mining) was used to calculate the efficiency of vari-
ous learning material given to the students. These popular
methods fall into the mentioned groups: relationship mining,
a discovery with models, prediction, clustering, and concen-
tration of data for human judgement.
All these techniques aim to predict scholar educational
consequences without predicting the middle or mediating
factors [25].
C. Romero and S. Ventura explain about a particular ap-
plication of data mining methods in web-based educational
systems in the year of 1995 to 2005. Educational data mining
is raising field related to numerous research fields including
e-learning, data mining, adaptive hypermedia, web mining.
Fig. (1). Students select their stream in three ways. The author shows the importance and significance of educa-
tional data mining as an undeveloped research area, which
needs to be focused to obtain success level in areas such as
Table 1. Dissimilar types of guidance systems and their target medical data mining, mining e-commerce data, etc. [26].
persons. S. B. Kotsiantis machine learning methods applied for
educational purposes is a potential area is pointed at devel-
Project Name Platforms Target Group oping approaches to exploring data from computational edu-
cational settings and finding significant patterns. The authors
PAS Wxpython Postgraduate students used existing regression methods with a specific goal like to
predict students’ marks which compare few art regression
Undergraduate
IS A-DVISOR Software algorithms to catch out which algorithm is more suitable for
Students
to predict student’s performance accurately and educational
ONLINE ADVISOR GUI based Students supporting. Toward the end the tool ranking the attributes
‘for final prediction [24].
Scripting envi- Undergraduate
JESS
ronment Students Bo Pang and Lillian Lee worked with Sentimental educa-
tional analysis seek to identify the viewpoint underlying a
Undergraduate text span and examined the relation between subjectivity
APE SYSTEM Software
students detection and popular classification. To define this senti-
Oracle Policy ment, they proposed an alternate machine-learning strategy
Undergraduate that is related to text-categorization procedures to just em-
RBESSUS Automation
students phasize the particular part of the text. The outcomes show
(OPA) software.
that the subjectivity extricates they made precisely represent
A PROTOTYPE Object-Oriented
Undergraduate
the sentiment information of the initiating documents in a
RULE-BASED EX- Software Devel-
students
substantially more minimized [27].
PERT SYSTEM opment
Machine Learning Based Support System Recent Patents on Computer Science, 2019, Vol. 12, No. 1 3

Table 2. Students Feature and their Description.

Feature category Feature Description

Area Student area where they belong

Geographical features Category Studentbelongs to which group

Physically challenged Physically challenged or not

Qualified the exam Qualified the exam from which board

Scholarship They get any scholarship or not

Education background Project Involvement in any project

feature Coaching Taken any coaching to get medical or engineering stream

Marks in Board exam Students marks in 8,10,12

Time Time devote for studies

Parents working Parents working or not

Parents employed Parents employed in which sector

Domestic Features
Family income Total family income

Stream has chosen Stream chosen was guided by

Satisfied with choice Students satisfied with choice or not

Personal Feature
Activities Interested in co-curricular activities (Yes or No)

Success rate what %age of success do student think

Future prospective Guide others Students guide other for this stream

Pursue your services Students like to pursue your services in which sector (Govt., Private etc.)

Inspiration Feature Same stream relation Any one from your family or relation in the same stream

W. G. Johnson, in his research, focused on the students
of computer science in the USA the enrollment is based on
latest trends and interest in computer science course. The
reason for the study is to find and investigate the area of poor
performance and lower the student’s GPA scores. To solve
this problem, the author developed untried modules of the
predictive course, sequencing, adaptive, etc. This model im-
proves the knowledge of computer science students, lower-
ing the attrition and reducing the loss of time [28].
Josh Gardner et.al. explain that machine learning tech-
niques have expanded in education research area driven by
diverse and accurate rich data from various digital learning
environments. However, replication of various machine
models in the domain of learning science is specifically chal-
lenging due to the influence of experimental methodology
and data barriers. Here, the author also discusses the specific
challenges of the end to end machine learning replication in
the context. The author presents an open source framework
toolkit called HOOC replication framework (MORF) to ad-
dress them. The author believes that the paradigm of the end
to end reproductively can be adopted by any domain which
utilizes large, complex, multi format education data [29].
Timothy Anderson et.al. explain and discuss the need to
quickly identify and investigate the students who are per-
forming poorly in a course. Traditionally, earlier the overse-
ers or teachers used to rely on average score, grades on insti-
tution basis to predict the performance of a student and its
graph of the track of performance. In this research, the au-
thor has used three main machine learning algorithms called
Naive Bayes estimation, KNN and SVM. These are used in
predicting the actual grade and accurate comparison of re-
sults of students. SVM shows good results in this research
[30].
3. MATERIAL AND METHODS
3.1. Data Collection
The primary goal of data collection is to gather infor-
mation from the students who are doing well in their streams
so as to consider it for training a machine learning model.
The data collected from 550 students of medical and engi-
neering. A set of questions, a questionnaire was framed to
collect the data from the students of different educational
institutions i.e. IIT’s, NIT, IGMC and Dr.RPGMC. The
questionnaire was permitted by GovernmentMedical College
name as DrRajendra Prasad Medical College (Dr RPGMC)
Ethical committee and Shoolini University Ethical commit-
tee. The questions were based on six factors i.e.
Geographical features, Eduactional background feature,
domestic feature, personal feature, Future prospective and
Inspiration feature. Table 2 shows the feature category, fea-
tures and their description.
4 Recent Patents on Computer Science, 2019, Vol. 12, No. 1
Fig. (2). Area where students belong.
As shown in Fig. (2), students come from different areas
such as 41%(225) students belong to urban areas, 39% (214)
students from rural areas, 19% (107) students from suburban
areas and 1% (4) belong to other areas.
Fig. (3). Stream chosen was guided by the parents/ relative, own
choice or others.
The data set also includes the stream chosen a feature.
Today this question has become most important that how
students select their streams/subject [31]. In Fig. (3), this
feature explains that the students select the stream by their
own choice, sometimes under influence of parents/ relatives
or the other options. In this dataset, 110 students get influ-
enced by parents to select the stream/subject, 414 students
select their own choice of subject and the remaining 26 stu-
dents opt for the other options to select their subject of
choice.
As shown in above Fig. (4), 227 students were observed
spending 1 to 3 hours devoting time in their studies whereas
3 to 5 hours’ time was devoted by 132 students. The catego-
ry of extraordinary students spending 5 to 7 hours included
37 and 34 in the case of more than 7 hours in their study time
whereas the time given by the most common group of stu-
dents was only 1 hour by 120 students.
3.2. Methodology
Current study comprised of the four steps viz. Data col-
lection, Pre-processing, Normalization, Feature selection
model generation (ML algorithms implementation) and
model validation (Fig. 5). The information collected was
Sethi et al.
further annotated making it suitable input to build a system
which is Data Pre-processing. Since the data was collected
from the students of two domains i.e. Engineering and Medi-
cal separately, the data needs to be converted into the text to
numeric format and fused in order to implement machine
learning approaches to it for suitable stream prediction.
Normalization followed by data pre-processing was done for
normalizing the data so that outliers could be removed mak-
ing the classification/prediction more accurate. Normaliza-
tion equation used for this study is given as:
!!  !
! =   (1)
!"#  (!)
Where ! is the mean and std(!) calculates the standard
deviation of x (set of features). Feature selection through
rank filtering in which rank is assigned to each of the feature
vector uses scoring function. Higher value of scoring func-
tion would lead to higher rank of feature vector. Rank indi-
cates the significance of feature vector in a way that higher
rank feature vector will have more significance than the low-
er rank feature vectors following setting up the threshold
value to filter out least significant feature vectors. The fea-
ture selection was done by WEKA using Principal compo-
nent analysis.Finally, the data was separated into training,
validation and test data set in which train data is used to train
the model using three machine learning approaches viz Feed
Forward Neural Networks, Support Vector machine and k-
nearest neighbour, whereas validation data is used to validate
the trained model and test data will evaluate the model
thereby calculating the performance metrics like specificity
sensitivity, accuracy, Mathews correlation coefficient and
ROC curve along with some other error histograms and
graphs. SVM kernel function (RBF) is used for a better re-
sult which is mathematically defined in equation 2:
‖!!! ! ‖!
!(!, !′)   =  !"# −   (2)
!!!
Where K is kernel value of RBF with the range between
0 & 1. In the other side !&! ! is a feature vector and σ! is a
standard deviation.
The progressive system of various stages in the study is
shown in Fig. (5).
3.3. NN Algorithm
Input  ! = !! , !! , !! , !! ⋯ !!!"  Output ! =  0,1
Training a neural network:
1) Randomly set weights.
2) Apply forward propagation to get ℎ!   (! (!) ) for any ! (!)
using the given equation 3.
3) compute cost function !(!).
Start
For i = 1: m
!
 ℎ  ! ! =   (3)
!!  ! !!"#
//Perform forward propagation using //
input is ( ! ! , ! (!) )
End
Machine Learning Based Support System Recent Patents on Computer Science, 2019, Vol. 12, No. 1 5

Fig. (4). Students devote time for studies.

Fig. (5). Schema of experimentation methodology. Fig. (6). Confusion matrix of student’s dataset.

4. RESULTS Sensitivity, specificity and MCC were figured out on the

This study aims at collecting data from the students stud- basis of following formulas.
ying in various reputed educational institutions of India of Accuracy=
!"
(4)
questions and using it for building a model for predicting the !!!
stream of students at higher secondary education level. The Sensitivity=
!"
(5)
data is collected from 550 students out of which 240 students !"!!"
are studying MBBS while the remaining are pursuing engi- Specificity=
!"
(6)
neering. The collected data is further annotated by convert- !"!!"
ing them to values accepted by the machine learning ap- MCC=  
!"  ×  !"!!"  ×  !"
  (7)  
proaches. In order to put the values on a standard scale for !"!!" (!"!!")(!"!!")(!"!!")
effective prediction, normalization is performed using equa- Where TP, FP, TN, FN are the digit of true positives,
tion 1 discussed in the methodology section. Optimal fea- false positives, true negatives, and false negatives, respec-
tures were selected using principal component analysis [32]. tively P and N signifies the classes. The above-discussed
Finally, the data is divided in the ratio 1:10 where 90 % data matrices for the machine learning approaches are utilized in
was used to train the model, the other 10% data was used to this study, as shown in Table 3. A higher value of all metrics
validate and test the model using SVM, NN, k-NN. In SVM shows the effective prediction by the model. Further, the
the radial basis kernels function is used for the accurate re- efficiency of the model is tested using the Receiver Operat-
sults. To check the effectiveness of prediction a confusion ing Characteristics curve. This curve demonstrates the pre-
matrix is calculated as shown in Fig. (6).   diction ability of the classifier. The ROC curve showed in
Confusion matrix gives four factors by comparing the Fig. (7) shows the overall higher accuracy of the test in Neu-
expected output with the predicted one thereby calculating ral Networks.
the following performance matrix:
6 Recent Patents on Computer Science, 2019, Vol. 12, No. 1 Sethi et al.

Table 3. Accuracy, Specificity, Sensitivity and MCC achieved on the student's dataset using proposed method.

Method (Datasets) Train 90% Test 10% Accuracy (%) Specificity Sensitivity MCC

NN Students 495 55 86.72 0.82 0.91 0.72

SVM Students 495 55 75.02 0.82 0.87 0.68

KNN Students 495 55 83.52 0.78 0.90 0.70

The performance of the feed-forward neural network can

also be analysed using mean squared error given as:
! ! !
MSE = !!! !! −   !!
!
Where m is the number of prediction, !! is predictive and
!! is observed value.
Fig. (8) shows the pattern of mean squared error during
17 iterations. The minimum MSE [33] was achieved at
epoch 11 which is 0.21259.The gradual decrease in MSE for
training testing and validation in the graph confirms good
prediction results. Fig. (9) shows an error histogram which is
calculated by comparing the differences between target and
output values in which error values are plotted against the
number of instances. This graph points towards the outliers
(features) where the data fit is not as good. The blue line in
the histogram is the train data. Separated zero error line from
any of the bins proves the best data fit. Analysis of the pa-
rameters and the graphs offers good results in general. This
proves the efficiency of the training model which was used
to predict the streams for the students at higher secondary
level.Only Indian data is used for the current research and
few medical and engineering college is covered for data col-
lection but the result is effective. In future, we have to
collect the global data that is used in the predictive model for
a better result.
Fig. (7). Shows the Roc curve of student’s dataset.
(8)
Fig. (8). Performance of training, testing andvalidation phases for
student’s dataset.
5. DISCUSSION
Secondary school education is the foundation of the stu-
dent’s career where they select the subjects/stream. Every
year more than one million secondary school students in
different countries face the challenge of choosing their career
stream/subjects. According to the Indian education, there are
many subjects/streams are available but medical and engi-
neering streams are most popular and in demands. Mostly
students primarily go for the medical and engineering
streams. In the present study, only these two streams viz.
medical and engineering were considered for building a
support system because of the popularity of these two
streams. All over India, every year more than 10 Lakh stu-
dents have filled forms for IIT or Medical seats, but fewer
students got selected and enrolled. In 2017, 1,186,454
students applied for the engineering courses but 10988
students were selected and got admission. Similarly, in 2016
1,194,938 students applying and 10572 students were
selected (Result of Jee (Main) 2016-17.
According to Central Board of Secondary Education of
India (CBSE) in 2017, 11.5 lakh students recorded for Na-
tional Eligibility-cum-Entrance Test (NEET) exam in India,
but 56,000 students got selected for medical and dental insti-
tutes across the country. In 2016, 8,02,594 students regis-
tered and 53,500 got admission. Inappropriate selection of
subjects by the students is due to peer and parental pressure
[34-36], the absence of proper information and lack of career
guidance leads to high dropout rate in future studies, or they
get limited success[37]. In literature, there is no such support
Machine Learning Based Support System
Fig. (9). This histogram shows the zero level of error.
system available till date which could help or guide the sec-
ondary education students while selecting the sub-
jects/stream build with successful student’s information [11,
38, 39]. There are several tools/websites available which
could help the students of graduate or postgraduate level to
opt subjects [17, 18]. These systems consider factors like
college or university subjects, available courses and their
criteria scheme, academic course plan, number of seats
available, but these systems only display the available in-
formation. In the current research, data mining and machine
learning approaches have been used for selecting
stream/subjects.These approaches are not used in secondary
education earlier but this area is unexplored.This is the first
attempt to predict subjects/stream on data mining approach
in ML.
In the current study, data is collected from a
questionnaire through students of different institutions. In the
questionnaire, interesting, stress-free, and less time-
consuming multiple choice questions were asked. The ques-
tionnaire was framed with all possible questions related to
the students [40, 41] and their family background like how
many numbers/marks score in earlier classes 8th, 10th and 12th
[42], they received any scholarship or not [43], how much
time they devoted in studies [44], which board they selected
in 10th and 12th, they got any coaching/tuitions [45] for se-
lecting stream and question asked about their prospective
future. The information collected through questionnaire, it
considers the successful scholar’s history and it is used for
subject’s/stream selection [46-48]. The literature shows that
family plays a vital role to suggest their children about the
subject/stream selection to reflect their career[49-51]. It is
also observed that sometimes family income and family edu-
cation decide the future of the students [52-54].
As per the previous research through machine learning,
different tools were developed to detect problems in the
human body like diabetes [55], lung cancer [56], heart dis-
ease [57] and improving health care [58]. Machine learning
is also exploring the other areas like imaging [59-61], bioin-
formatics [62], stock exchange [63, 64] and recognizing hu-
man activity [65]. Various predicting models have been de-
veloped in different areas [66] but they were unable to ex-
plore the area of education. Existing approach uses three
different machine learning techniques viz. Support Vector
Machines [67], k-nearest neighbour [68] and Neural Net-
Recent Patents on Computer Science, 2019, Vol. 12, No. 1 7
works [69] which were used to train a model following mod-
el testing and validation using various performance matrices.
Table 3 proves that Neural Networks have performed
well with relatively higher accuracy 86.72% and find the
Specificity and Sensitivity as compared to other two popular
classifiers (SVM and KNN). Neural Network is very reliable
and it is used to guide the students for subject/stream selec-
tion in secondary level. The model developed during the
study will increase the success rate and reduces the dropout
rate. The benefit of considering factors related to student’s
interest is to make this support system well appropriate for
effectively providing a solution from the student’s point of
view keeping equal weighing with other aspects discussed in
previous sections.
CONCLUSION
A detailed analysis of data collected for stream selection
at higher secondary level shows promising results, which
demonstrates the robustness of the proposed approach. Three
methods were used viz. SVM, ANN and NN. According to
our results, Neural networks have shown relatively greater
efficacy as compared to the other two algorithms. This
method has produced a classification accuracy of 86.72%
with 0.91 sensitivity rate, 0.82 specificity rate and MCC is
0.72. These experimental results have shown that Neural
networks based classification can successfully predict the
streams to opt for the higher secondary level. It is first at-
tempted to design support system for subject selection in
secondary education. It is more reliable and applicable glob-
ally.The future aspect is this system can be further extended
to more number of stream opted for higher secondary educa-
tion. Furthermore, data collection from various areas
throughout the country can further enhance its ability to pre-
dict the stream at a higher secondary level.
CONSENT FOR PUBLICATION
Not applicable.
CONFLICT OF INTEREST
The authors declare no conflict of interest, financial or
otherwise.
8 Recent Patents on Computer Science, 2019, Vol. 12, No. 1
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The authors are thankful to the management of Shoolini
University, Solan for providing the required facilities and
resources to carry out this research.
FUNDING
This research did not receive any specific grant from
funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit
sectors.
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