Week 1: Three dice are rolled.

What is the probability the same number appears Week 3:

Experiment: process where we obtain data from/process that leads to on exactly two of the three dice?
several possible outcomes Approach 1: you calculate the prob by using 1-Pr(not having two
Eg: rolling a dice, observing the height of a randomly selected NBS position with the same number) Let E, S, D denote the events that E=
student same number on exactly two of the dices S=event all three numbers are
Sample space: collection of all probable outcomes of an experiment same D=event all three numbers are different These three events are
Eg: {1,2,3,4,5,6} , {120cm,200cm} mutually exclusive and define the whole sample space. Thus,
Event: collection of some of the outcomes in a sample space/Any Pr(E)+Pr(S)+Pr(D)=1 . Pr(S)= 6 216 = 1 36 For D have six possible values
subset of a sample space for first die, five for second, and four for third. Number of ways to get
Eg: Dice shows even numberà {2,4,6} D=6*5*4=120. Pr(D)= 120 216 = 5 9 Pr( E)=1-Pr(D)-Pr(S)= 1 − 5 9 − 1 36
Simple sample space: when a sample space has n outcomes and each = 5 12 = 0.4166667 Approach 2: You calculate the same prob by
outcome has equal probability counting directly the number of outcomes involving two same numbers.
Properties of probabilities: Total outcomes in the sample space by multiplicative method is
1. 0<=P(A)<=1 6*6*6=216 The number of outcomes involving two same numbers =
2. P(S) = 1 C3,2 * 6 * 5 = choose(3,2)*6*5 = 90. Thus, the prob of the question is
3. P(A U B) = P(A) + P(B) if AnB = 0 90/216= 0.4166667.
P(A) + P(A’) = 1 Suppose that 100 mathematics students are divided into five classes,
P(AUB) + P(A) + P(B) – P(AnB) each containing 20 students, and that awards are to be given to 10 of
these students (the 10 awards are indistinguishable). If each student is
equally likely to receive an award, what is the probability that exactly
Week 1 TUTORIALS two students in each class will receive awards?
S={1,2} where outcome (I,J) is said to occur if I appear 1st and j appear There are a total of 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(100,10) ways of choosing ten mathematics
2nd studentsto give the 10 awards to. There are 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(20,2) ways of
S={H,T}, where H means outcome is head, T means outcome is tail choosing two students from a given class of 20 students. Therefore,
there are (𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(20,2)) 5 ways of choosing two students from each of
the five classes. So, the final answer (𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(20,2)) 5/ 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(100,10) ≈
Week 2: 0.0143.
Multiplication method: experiment (sample space) has n1 * n2 … nk
outcomes This question illustrates that it is possible to get the answer to certain
Permutation method: An arrangement of n different outcomes probability problems thru different counting methods.
prod(n-k+1:n) In a lottery game, six numbers from 1 to 30 are drawn at random from a
Combination method: A combination is a unique subset based on k bin without replacement (meaning we won’t get the same number more
elements than once), and each player buys a ticket with six different numbers
choose(n,k) from 1 to 30. If all six numbers drawn match those on the player’s ticket,
Conditional Probability: P(A|B) = P(A n B) / P(B) the player wins regardless what sequence the six numbers are drawn.
Independent events: 2 events are called independent events if their Consider the following three events:
conditional probabilities are equal to their unconditional probabilities à A= {the draw contains the numbers 1,14,15,20,23 and 27}
P(A|B) = P(A) B= {one of the numbers drawn is 15} and
P(B|A) = P(B) C= {the first number drawn is less than 10}
there are 𝑃30,6 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑(25: 30)= 427518000 outcomes in the sample
Two events are independent when the occurrence of one does not space. Event A: there are 𝑃6,6 (=𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑(1: 6)) permutations of this event
affect the probability of the occurrence of the other. (i.e., number of ways the 6 numbers can be ordered). Thus, Pr(A)=
𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑(1:6)/𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑(25:30) ,𝑤ℎ𝑖𝑐ℎ 𝑖𝑠 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑡 1.68414𝑒 − 06 (meaning
Mutually Exclusive: can't happen at the same time. 1.68414/106 ), an extremely small probability to win. Event B:
Pr(B)=𝑃29,5 𝑃30,6 × 6 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑(25:29)/𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑(25:30) × 6 = 0.2 (we must
“*6” because “15“ can appear at any of the 6 positions) Event C:
Week 2 TUTORIALS: Pr(C)=𝑃29,5 𝑃30,6 × 9 = 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑(25:29/ 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑(25:30) × 9 = 0.3 (we must
Three different classes contain 18, 25 and 20 students, respectively, and “*9” because there are 9 possible numbers for the first number) (2)
no student is a member of more than one class. If a team is to be There are 𝐶30,6 = 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(30,6) = 593775 outcomes in this sample
composed of one student from each of these three classes, in how space Event A: There is only one outcome. Pr(A)= 1 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(30,6) =
many different ways can the members of the team be chosen? 1.68414𝑒 − 06 Event B: Pr(B)=1∗𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(29,5) 𝑐ℎ𝑜𝑜𝑠𝑒(30,6) = 0.2 (*1
By the multiplicative method, we obtain the answer as 18*25*20=9000 since only “15” must be selected)
Discrete random variables: when an RV can only take on a discrete
number of values, the RV is a discrete RV
X is a discrete RV. Its probability distribution will be called a pmf of X
f(x)=P(X=x)
Cumulative distribution function (cdf) of x à F(x) = P(X<=x)
Discrete uniform distribution: have multiple outcomes, each equally
likely
Bernoulli distribution: when the experiments is a trial that has only 2
outcomes (success and failure)
Binomial distribution: the experiment consists of a series of n
independent Bernoulli trials
f(x) = P(X=x) = dbinom(x,n,p)
F(x) = P (X <= x) = pbinom (x,n,p)
Continuous random variable à integrate f(x)
R commands for random variables using normal curve
1. dnorm(x, mean, standard deviation) à pdf f(x)
2. pnorm(q, mean, standard deviation) à cdf F(q)
3. qnorm(p, mean, standard deviation) à returns the value of x such
that F(x) = p
4. Rnorm(n, mean, standard deviation) à draw a random sample size
n
Continuous uniform distribution:
P(X<=x) = punif(x, a, b) à a is the min, b is the mac
Week 3 TUTORIAL:
. The sum of the values of f(x) must be equal to 1. Since ∑ 𝑓(𝑥) = 15 𝑐 5 𝑥=1 , we
must have c= 1 /15 .
A florist makes deliveries between 1:00 pm and 5:00 pm daily. Assume
delivery times follow the continuous uniform distribution (use punif in R)
Determine the percentage of deliveries that are made after 4:00 pm.
Determine the percentage of deliveries that are made prior to 2:30 pm.
Determine the percentage of deliveries between 2:00 pm and 3:00 pm.
(1) 1-punif(4, min, max) = 0.25
(2) punif(2.5,min=1,max=5) =0.375
(3) punif(3, min=1,max=5) – punif(2,min=1, max=5)

Suppose that a club consists of 30 members and that a president and a

secretary are to be chosen form the membership. These two positions
cannot be taken by one member. How many possible ways that these
two positions can be filled?
P30,2=30*29= 870
Week 4: Properties of variance:
1. Var(X) >= 0
2. Var (aX+c) = a2Var(X)
3. Var(X1 + X2) = Var(X1) + Var(X2) if X1 and X2 are independent
4. Var(aX1 + bX2) = a2var(X1)+b2var(X2)+2abCov(X1X2)

Week 4 TUTORIALS:
Let X have the Bernoulli distribution with parameter p. That is, assume
that X is either 0 or 1 with Pr(X=1)=p. What is the expectation of X?
E(X) = 0 × (1 − p) + 1 × p = p

Suppose that a random variable X can take each of the five values
-2,0,1,3 and 4 with equal probability. What is the variance of X?
x=c(-2,0,1,3,4)
fx= c(0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2) #or, you may use fx=rep(.2,5)
Properties of expectations
EX=sum(x*fx)
1. E(a) = a
varx=sum(fx*(x-EX)^2)
2. E(aX+B) = aE(X) + b
varx 4.56
3. E(X1 + X2 +…+ Xn) = E(X1) + E(X2) + …+ E(Xn)
4. E(aX1 + bX2 + c) = aE(X1) + bE(X2) + c
5. E(X1X2) = E(X1)E(X2) if X1 and X2 are statistically independent