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Cash Forecasting Maturity Model
Cash Forecasting Maturity Model
Maturity Model
Executive Summary:
Why is Cash Forecasting Important?
In the wake of the last global financial crisis, providing strong and accurate cash flow
management has become a top priority for treasury teams. While methods have been
implemented to improve cash liquidity, effective cash forecasting remains one of the biggest
issues that corporate treasury teams grapple with today.
Treasurers now need to think more than ever about cash forecasting and how that might
help them identify pockets of surplus cash that can be put to better use. This is where the
problem lies. According to a PwC survey, both the CFO and the Treasurer said that cash
forecasting is their top priority and challenging one.
Top Priorities on the CFO’s agenda vs the treasurer’s agenda (weighted ranking)
Number of respondants: CFOs- 222; Treasurers- 185
100%
Capital Structure
79%
98%
Funding
93%
69%
Currency Risk
92%
68%
Working Capital
45%
CONTENTS
CASH FORECASTING
Data Variance
Approach Modeling
Gathering Analysis
Art vs Science The sources and Choose the right Accuracy analysis
methods of modeling tool for across multiple
data gathering each category areas
Approach - Art vs Science - The approach in which the cash forecasting is done defines the
accuracy of the forecasting. So it is important to define and have an approach based on the
type of cash forecasting you do. There are essentially two main types of cash forecasting
methods – direct or indirect.
Direct cash forecasting is a method of forecasting cash flows and balances for short term
liquidity management purposes, typically less than 90 days in duration.
Indirect cash forecasting is often longer term in nature and it relies on various indirect
methods of building up a cash forecast such as using projected balance sheets and income
statements.
Data Gathering -
When creating cash forecasts, treasury must rely upon a number of different sources. This
often involves communicating with multiple departments and staff members internally to
obtain the desired information
If an organization does not communicate well internally, or has an outdated or legacy tech
infrastructure, this part of the process may be one of the most difficult
Often, the length of time for the forecast plays a significant role in the type of forecast used
The amount of information available for forecasting and the availability of any
applications/solutions will also impact the type of forecast utilized
Variance Analysis -
Variance Analysis involves comparing forecasted cash flows for a given period to the actual
cash flows that occur during that period to identify discrepancies and evaluate the accuracy
of the forecast
This process can help identify shortcomings within the forecast and aid treasury in
improving the accuracy of their forecasts moving forward
Improving the strength of these pillars can go a long way in building reliable cash forecasts.
The following discusses how these are key success factors in building an accurate and
reliable forecast.
The maturity of the cash forecasting process corresponds to the effectiveness of the process
with respect to the four components. The next chapter explores how the cash forecasting
process could be evolved on the four high impact pillars.
1. Laggards - The organization has some process in place but they are inadequate in that
there are many gaps which affect the day to day running of the organization.
2. Proactive Process - The organization has in place process practices that are adequate in
supporting the business under stable circumstances, and enable it to develop but will not be
sufficient in challenging times.
3. Strategic Process - The organization has in place professional practices which enable it
to cope effectively in challenging times and will identify some opportunities to improve its
performance.
4. Best-in-class Process - The organization has processes and practices that are leading
edge and allow it to anticipate both challenges and key opportunities, in order to optimize its
performance.
01 02 03 04
Now, let’s understand how the process of cash forecasting is done across organizations.
1. Laggards - Based on opinions, judgements, experiences from the past. You take last
year’s data, apply basic metrics and use for this year
4. Best-in-class - Building forecasts bottoms-up from a granular level, costly from a data
acquisition and effort perspective to gather the proper rules
CASH FORECASTING
Laggards Proactive Strategic Best-in-Class
Art vs Science
Pillar 1: Approach
Data Gathering:
Laggards - Have a very manual process. Often just utilizing what happened last year, and using
it as a basis of forecast for this year
Proactive - Using the similar process like Laggards, but adding forward looking information,
and using this information to make adjustments to incorporate the changes in trajectory of
operations of the company (current data)
Strategic - Proactive + Using RPA to automate gathering of data from multiple sources.
Best-in-class - Utilizing API for connectivity between systems so that it stays up-to-date
with the current data available and also using forward-looking information from FP&A,
Sales, ERP. No manual effort involved.
Modeling:
Laggards - Excel-based global approach for all categories, last year’s actuals is used
Proactive - Averaging-based approach for all categories, past data representing different
periods (1 year, 1 month, etc) is used
Strategic - Models of some categories such as AR and AP are based on due dates which
might be adjusted, for which ERP and bank data is used
Best-in-class - Uses AI for complex categories such as AP and AR, current and past data is used
for forecasts
CASH FORECASTING
Laggards Proactive Strategic Best-in-Class
Modeling
Excel based Averaging Due dates Artificial
global approach based approach (maybe adjusted) Intelligence
Pillar 3: Modeling
Proactive - Performed at global level only, and only done for single duration, difficult to do
multi-duration analysis
Strategic - Performed at entity and cash flow category-level, for single duration only
Best-in-class - Performed at entity, region and cash flow category-level, for multiple durations
(today’s actual vs forecast done 1 month/3 months/6 months ago)
CASH FORECASTING
Laggards Proactive Strategic Best-in-Class
Variance
Analysis No variance Perform at Perform at Perform at
analysis global level entity and cash entity, region and
flow category cash flow
level category level
Summary
Data Gathering
The sources and Manual Manual RPA API
methods of
data gathering
Modeling
Choose the right Excel based Averaging based Artificial
Due dates
modeling tool for approach approach Intelligence
each category
Perform at entity,
Perform at global Perform at entity
Variance No Variance category, region
level for single or category level
Analysis analysis performed
duration for single duration
level for multiple
durations
Autonomous Systems
Humans + Machines
for receivables & treasury
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