HYPOTHESES TESTING AND CI ESTMATION

ASSIGNMENT OF STATISTICAL PACKAGES III

COURSE CODE : 3206
BSC(HONS.) STATISTICS
SESSION:2018-2022

SUBMITTED TO: MS. MALIHA BUTT

SUBMITTED BY: HIRA NAEEM
ROLL NUMBER: 1518-BH-STAT-18
SEMESTER: 6TH

ASSIGNMENT TOPIC:
BAAIC DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
ESTIMATION AND HYPOTHESES TESTING PROCEDURE WITH
PRACTICAL SITUATIONS

Page 1|6
HYPOTHESES TESTING AND CI ESTMATION

BASIC STATISTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CONFIDENCE INTERVAL

ESTIMATION AND HYPOHESES TESTING PROCEDURE

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION HYPOTHESE TESTING PROCEDURE

Confidence Interval estimation uses the data from
a sample to estimate a population parameter. It
refers to the probability that a population parameter
will fall between a set of values for a certain
proportion of times.
Hypotheses Testing uses data from a sample to test
a specific hypotheses about a population and It
requires that we have a hypothesized parameter. It
is a statistical method that is used in making
statistical decisions using experimental data.

 A confidence interval displays the  Hypothesis testing is used to assess and

probability that a parameter will fall
between a pair of values around the
mean.
 Confidence intervals measure the
degree of uncertainty or certainty in a
sampling method. They are most often
constructed using confidence levels of
95% or 99%.
provides evidence concerning the
plausibility of a hypothesis by using
sample data.
 Statistical analysts test a hypothesis by
measuring and examining a random
sample of the population being analyzed.
[4]

PRACTICAL SITUATIONS IN WHICH A CERTAIN HYPOTHESES IS

NEED TO BE TESTED

Example 1:
Suppose we would like to know rough estimate of the average number of hours worked per week by all
Americans with college degree and on the calculated range of estimate, we should have strong confidence.
In this situation we can use confidence interval, which will give use the range of values in between the
average number of hours worked per week by all Americans with college degree will lie with 95%
confidence.
Now suppose if we suspect that the average number of hours worked per week by all Americans with
college degree is more than 40 hours. Here, hypothesized value is 40 and we like to test whether us 40. In
this situation the testing of hypothesis can be used.
Example 2:
Suppose we would like to have an estimate of population proportion of adults in a certain country who have
donated blood in the past two years. With the help of confidence interval, we can get the lower and upper
bound for the given estimate.

Page 2|6
HYPOTHESES TESTING AND CI ESTMATION

In case, we would like to test if the population proportion of adults in a certain country who have donated
blood in the past two years is 20%, then testing hypothesis would be useful in this case.
Example 3:
Research question: Is the average age in the population of all statistics students less than 25 years? Here we
can use the testing of hypothesis to test < 25

CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION:

The concept of a confidence interval was introduced in 1937 by the Polish-English-American statistician
Jerzy Neyman (1894-1981).
Confidence interval (CI) is a estimate computed from the statistics of the observed data. This gives a range
of values for an unknown parameter (for example, a population mean). The interval has an
associated confidence level that gives the probability with which the estimated interval will contain the
true value of the parameter.
Factors affecting the width of the confidence interval include
 the size of the sample,
 the confidence level,
 the variability in the sample.
EXPLAINATION AND NOTATIONS:
P (L < θ< U) = 1-α, for 0 < α < 1,
The interval (L,U) is called a 100 (1- α) percent confidence interval for the unknown parameter θ,
the probability 1- α, associated with interval estimate is called the confidence co-efficient .
and α is the probability that the parameter θ will lie outside the interval.
For example, if α = 0.05, then the probability that the interval (L, U) contains θ is 0.95.
The endpoints that bound the confidence interval, are called the lower and upper confidence limits for θ.
The width of the confidence interval, ie. the difference U-L, is called the precision of the estimate. The
precision may be increased either by increasing the sample size or by decreasing the confidence level. [1]
PRACTICAL SITUATIONS
EXAMPLE # 1 The U.S. Census Bureau routinely uses confidence levels of 90% in their surveys. One
survey of the number of people in poverty in 1995 stated a confidence level of 90% for the statistics “The
number of people in poverty in the United States is 35,534,124 to 37,315,094.”is the confidence interval.
That means if the Census Bureau repeated the survey using the same techniques, 90 percent of the time the
results would fall between the confidence interval. [3]
EXAMPLE # 2 In a 2018 study, the prevalence and disease burden of atopic dermatitis in the US Adult
Population was understood with the use of 95% confidence intervals.

Page 3|6
HYPOTHESES TESTING AND CI ESTMATION

It was reported that among 1,278 participating adults, the prevalence of atopic dermatitis was 7.3% (5.9 –
8.8). Furthermore, 60.1% (56.1–64.1) of participants were classified to have mild atopic dermatitis while
28.9% (25.3–32.7) had moderate and 11% (8.6–13.7) had severe.
The study confirmed that there is a high prevalence and disease burden of atopic dermatitis in the
population. [3]
EXAMPLE # 3 In a 2004 study, Briton and colleagues conducted a study on evaluating relation of
infertility to ovarian cancer.
The incidence ratio of 1.98 was reported for a 95% Confidence (CI) interval with a ratio range of 1.4 to 2.6.
[3]

HYPOTHESES TESTING:

A hypothesis testing defines about a population parameter statement, and the it represents the specific
numerical value. It’s a method to gather data and evidence about hypothesis.

SIX STEPS OF HYPOTHESES TESTING

There are certain steps to conduct a test of a hypothesis.

1. Formulation of the hypotheses : It includes two hypotheses about the population.

One is the null hypothesis H0, which is representing a particular parameter value. This hypothesis
is assumed to be true until there is evidence to suggest.

The second the alternative hypothesis Ha. The alternative hypothesis is representing the range of
alternative values in which the parameter may fall.

2. Decide on the Level of significance level, α: Alpha value represents the probability we are willing
to place on our test for making an incorrect decision in regards to rejecting the null hypothesis.
3. Calculate the test statistic: Gather sample data and calculate a test statistic where the sample
statistic is compared to the parameter value.
4. Calculate p-value or find the rejection region: A p-value is found by using the test statistic to
calculate the probability of the sample data producing such a test statistic or one more extreme.

The rejection region is found by using alpha to find a critical value; the rejection region is the area
that is more extreme than the critical value.
 One-tailed test: When the given statistical hypothesis is one value like H0: μ1 = μ2 .
 Two-tailed test: When the given statistics hypothesis is less than or greater than value.

5. Make a decision about the null hypothesis: In this step, we decide to either reject the null
hypothesis or decide to fail to reject the null hypothesis.
6. Conclusion: Once we have found the p-value or rejection region, and made a statistical decision
about the null hypothesis to reject the null or not. [2]

Page 4|6
HYPOTHESES TESTING AND CI ESTMATION

PRACTICAL EXAMPLES OF HYPOTHESES

Examples #1
Plant biologist thinks that plant height may be affected by applying different fertilizers. So it might
say: "Plants with different fertilizers will grow to different heights. [2]

FORMULATION OF HYPOTHESES
Null hypotheses: the average height (or mean height) for plants with the different fertilizers will all be the
same.

H0: μ 1 = μ 2=⋯= μ k for k levels of an experimental treatment

Alternative hypotheses: that they are not all equal, but rather some of the fertilizer treatments have
produced plants with different mean heights.

HA: treatment level means not all equal

Examples # 2
A Researcher thinks that knee surgery patients go to the therapy twice a week have recovery period
longer. Average recovery time for knee surgery patients is 8.2 weeks. [2]
FORMULATION OF HYPOTHESES
The hypotheses is that the researcher believes the average recovery time is more than 8.2 weeks. Null
Hypotheses can be written as:
H0: μ > 8.2
If the researcher is wrong then the recovery time is less than or equal to 8.2 weeks. Alternative
Hypotheses can be written as :
H0 μ ≤ 8.2
Examples # 3
Blood glucose levels for obese patients have a mean of 100 with a standard deviation of 15. A
researcher thinks that a diet high in raw cornstarch will have a positive or negative effect on blood
glucose levels. A sample of 30 patients who have tried the raw cornstarch diet have a mean glucose
level of 140. Test the hypothesis that the raw cornstarch had an effect. [2]
FORMULATION OF HYPOTHESES
Null hypothesis: A diet high in raw cornstarch will have a positive effect on blood glucose levels
H0 : μ=100
Alternate hypothesis: A diet high in raw cornstarch willnot have a positive effect (negative effect) on
blood glucose levels
H1: μ ≠100

Page 5|6
HYPOTHESES TESTING AND CI ESTMATION

REFERENCES :

1. Chaudhary, S.M. and Kamal, S. Introduction To Statistical Theory Part 2.

Lahore,Pakistan.

2. Walpole, R. E. et al. Ye, K. Myers, S. L. Myers, R. H. Probability and Statistics for

Engineers and Scientists. 9th edition, Texas, San Antonio.

3. Kenney, J. F. and Keeping, E. S. Confidence Limits for the Binomial Parameter and
Confidence Interval Charts. §11.4 and 11.5 in Mathematics of Statistics, Pt. 1, 3rd ed.
Princeton, NJ: Van Nostrand, pp. 167-169, 1962.

https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/confidence-interval/

4. Hoel, P. G. et al. Port, S. C. Stone, C. J. “Testing Hypotheses.” Ch. 3 in Introduction to

Statistical Theory. New York: Houghton Mifflin, pp. 52-110, 1971.

https://www.statisticshowto.com/probability-and-statistics/hypothesis-testing/

Page 6|6