If Z* calculates to big number like > 3,2 then p value 0 if P(Z>?

) 2 if
P(Z<?)

Two samples – mean

FTR ho: Big P or P?alpha or |Z*| > Z alpha/2 (at tails) or Mu not in CI
- Cannot conclude, Insufficient evidence, The data doesn’t suggest, Exception: using CI and mu is in the interval
- TYPE 2 ERROR
Reject Ho: Small P or P<alpha or |Z*|> Z alpha/2 (at tails) or Mu not in CI , Can conclude , Strong evidence , Data suggests
- TYPE 1 ERROR
We make hypotheses about parameters
Type 1: reject Ho, when Ho is true type 2: FTR Ho when Ho is false ,To find P-value use Z table
Inferences about One population Mean
Central Limit Theorem
Asnincreases,thedistributionofthesamplemeantendstowardthenormaldistribution,regardlessofthedistributionofthepopulation • Questionsmusteither
◦Have big enough sample size (n ≥ 30)Mention that the population is “approximately” normal or follows a normal distribution
Confidence interval for μ ((σ Known) *Population normal, Small/Large n)
Intervalestimate:Point estimate+/-marginoferror
• Wewantintervalestimatesto
◦Contain μ
◦Be narrow so we can make decisions • 1-α:
• 100(1-α)%:
E.g.95%of all samples give an interval thatcapturesμ(good),and5%of all samples give an interval that does not capture μ(bad)
90%CI
◦Pro
‣ Narrow,can make decisions
◦Con
‣ 10%ofallsamplesgiveanintervalthatdoesnotcaptureμ
• 99%CI ◦Pro
‣ Higher probability sample gives an interval that captures μ ◦Con
‣ Wider intervals ,heard to make decisions ◦Safer, so used in medical research
3ThingsAffectingWidthofCI(n,alpha,ands) ◦n big, CI narrow
◦α big, CI narrow ◦s big, CI wide
Hypothesis Tests about μ (Sigma known) * population normal, small/large n
Ho – null (empty) hypothesis, Assume or believe to be true until we can prove otherwise , Contains = sign, Ha – alternative (research) hypothesis ,The one we hope and wish is true for our research question , The one we support , Contains ≠, >, < signs, Proof
by contradiction
Steps
Define 2 hypotheses, assume Ho is true, Calculate Test statistic (Z/T Critical value) determine P value on chart
Small p or 0, reject ho, evidence that ho is false | large p, or 1 fail to reject ho, no evidence that ho is false
P value scale if ho is true
P=1 certain that the observed data more extreme wont appear, p=0.001 – very srong evidence against Ho
P=1 certain that the observed data will appear
Real world conclusion – there is sufficient evidence at alpha = 0.05 significance to conclude that the two populations differ.
Confidence Interval and Hypothesis tests about μ (sigma unknown) *population normal, small/large n
T distribution – used with there is small sample sizes (n<30), degree of freedom = n-1, bigger the dF taller the curve
Confidence interval – use t if n<30, given 95% CI, look for 0.025 (1-0.95/2) in t-table
Hypothesis test – t calculated values will be in body of t table, can estimate pvalue give a range for it like 0.025<pvalue<0.05
Confidence interval and hypothesis tests about μ (sigma unknown) population NOT normal large n CLT
Confidence interval – use z if n>30 population not normal, hypothesis test -p value 0 reject ho
• Regression cautions
o Conditional on the values of the predictors we observe
o Treats the response and predictors differently - predict Y from X o Don’t extrapolate
• Regression Assumptions
o Both variables are quantitative
o Relationship should be approximately linear
o No outliers or subgroups (can dramatically change value of slope, subgroups need 2+ regression lines)
o Response variable should have equal variance across predictor values, consistent spread in Y regardless of X

Sample variance
Sample standard deviation:
• Root of sample variance, approximated standard deviation is Range/4, if n < 10 divide by 3, if n > 100 divide by 5
Conditional probability

Normal Model: Notation: X ∼ N(μ, σ) → μ (mean) and σ (standard deviation) are the parameters , If X ∼ N(μ, σ) then any linear combination of X is also Normal
Z score: z = x−μ/σ (look at Z table)
Properties of sample mean:
• Let X have population mean μ and sd σ, and xbar be calculated from random sample of observations from this population; The sample mean is
unbiased for the population mean, standard deviation (and variance) of the sample mean decreases with n; The sampling distribution of Xbar is still
Normal if n is large

Width of CI is for known SD

Assumptions for small sample CI: random sample, normal distribution, standard deviation is known, iid ∼ N(μ, σ), (X−μ)/(σ/√n) ∼ N(0, 1)
o If standard deviation is unknown, use t CI: (Xbar−μ)/(s/√n) ∼ tn-1 ▪ xbar±tn-1;α/2(s/√n)
Sample size and MOE:

Two means
Expressed as difference or ratio of two means
Assumptions for large sample (both n > 30) and small sample:
o Large: 2 samples are random samples from the target populations and the samples are independent from each other o Small: 2 random samples from the target populations and the samples are independent from each other

Degrees of freedom

Linear regression
• Sample n units, for each unit i in the sample, measure Xi and Yi → n pairs (xi , yi), xi are assumed to have known values and measured
without error, y
measured with epsilon, predicted linear model =
Set up for linear regression:
Estimate beta parameters using least squares estimation, yi – y_hati = observed – predicted = residuals

Least Squares Estimation:

 where ei = residuals, common variance of errors is Se squared

Coefficient of determination = r2 =
o Interpreted as proportion of variation in the response (Y) that is explained by predictor (X) o Better fit = lower SSE = higher R2
• Regression cautions
o Conditional on the values of the predictors we observe
o Treats the response and predictors differently - predict Y from X o Don’t extrapolate
• Regression Assumptions
o Both variables are quantitative
o Relationship should be approximately linear
o No outliers or subgroups (can dramatically change value of slope, subgroups need 2+ regression lines)
o Response variable should have equal variance across predictor values, consistent spread in Y regardless of X