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CMBS Derivative Workshop: May 2008 Neil Barve Aaron Bryson
CMBS Derivative Workshop: May 2008 Neil Barve Aaron Bryson
CMBS Derivative Workshop: May 2008 Neil Barve Aaron Bryson
Neil Barve
Aaron Bryson
Sep-03
Sep-04
Sep-06
Sep-07
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Sep-05
Sep-99
Sep-00
Mar-00
Mar-01
Sep-01
CMBX
– CMBX basics
– How not to think about CMBX
– Spread duration
– Approach to fair value
– Trade recommendations
Index swaps
CMBX Basics
What Is CMBX?
Prior to a Credit Event or Maturity, BoP Makes Regular Payments to the SoP
Fixed Payment
(Fixed Rate on Notional Balance)
BoP SoP
BoP SoP
Floating Payment
(Writedown / interest shortfall)
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Basic Mechanics of a CMBX Trade
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Treatment of Principal Writedown
Unlike corporate CDS, pay-as-you-go structure
Example: BBB-.1
Credit Event: one reference obligation suffers a 50% writedown
Fixed Payment = 134bp (Fixed Rate) x Act/360 (day count convention) x $100mn (not. bal. of trade)
Floating Payment = 4% (weight of ref. obl.) x 50% (% writedown to ref. obl.) x $100mn (not. bal.
of trade)
Fixed Payment (≈$112k)
BoP SoP
Floating Payment ($2mn)
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Calculating the Floating Payment
Due to Interest Shortfall
Fixed cap methodology
In event of shortfall, floating payment by SoP is capped at the fixed rate of the CMBX index
BBB-.1 coupon = 134bp/yr or 11.2 bp/month
Assume 3 of the 25 reference obligations are suffering interest shortfall > than the fixed rate of
the index
Reference Obligation Weight x Fixed Rate x % of Fixed Rate = Floating Payment
1 4% 11.2bp 100% 0.45bp
2 4% 11.2bp 100% 0.45bp
3 4% 11.2bp 100% 0.45bp
4–25 88% 11.2bp 0% 0.00bp
Total 1.34bp
Fixed Payment
11.2bp/month
BoP SoP
Floating Payment
1.34bp/month
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
CMBX – Cash Relationship
Basis
– Tends to be leading indicator of large spread moves
– CMBX moves in “higher beta” fashion versus cash
– Also reflects liquidity / funding differences
Aug-07
Jun-06
Jun-07
Aug-06
Aug-07
Dec-06
Apr-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
May-06
Jun-06
Jun-07
Mar-06
Oct-06
Oct-07
Feb-07
Feb-08
Dec-06
Apr-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
May-06
Mar-06
Oct-06
Oct-07
Feb-07
Feb-08
AAA Basis (LHS) AAA Cash Spreads BBB Basis (LHS) BBB Cash Spreads
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
How Not to Think About CMBX
Misread #1: Simply an Insurance Contract
Just insurance contract, no relation to underlying cash market
– “Super duper AAAs will never take a loss, selling protection is free money”
– “Losses will be back-ended, no one will buy protection”
Super Senior Risk
300
225
150
75
0
Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08
450
300
150
0
Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Jan-08 Feb-08 Mar-08 Apr-08
30-yr Jumbo AAA LOAS 30yr Alt A AAA LOAS AAA.CMBX OTR
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
CMBX Linkages with Underlying Cash Market
LIBOR on
$100mn
$0.96 L+96bp
Ongoing date BoP SoP LIBOR Floater on $100mn
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Buy Cash Bond
5.48%,
Income,
L+96bp
Ongoing date S+96bp
Bond Buyer on $100mn
$100mn Not’l
$8 Net Cash
Flow to SoP
On $8
writedown date BoP SoP $0
96bp LIBOR
on $92mn on $92mn
L+96bp
Ongoing date BoP SoP LIBOR Floater on $92mn
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Buy Cash Bond
Example: Buy a cash bond
4/25/08
AJ cash bond, coupon = 5.48% (S+96bp), trading @ 310bp, pay on IRS
10yr swap rate = 4.52%
Net Cash
Flow to
Bond Buyer
On Principal
Bond Seller $0
writedown date Writedown
5.48%, S + 96bp
Income, L+96bp
Ongoing date Bond Buyer
$92mn Not’l on $92mn
Receive floating
Pay fixed rate,
rate, LIBOR on
4.52% on $92mn
$92mn
IRS
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers. Unwind $8mn of IRS
CMBX Spread Duration
CMBX Spread Duration
Upfront methodology
– Determined by Markit.com
– Similar to that of corporate market
– Market spread is proxy for default risk
• Spread of 100bp implies loss of 100bp/year on reference obligations
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
CMBX Spread Duration
Positively convex relationship
Price vs. Spread
Price ($)
140
120
CMBX.A.4, 4/25/08 close
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
Spread (bp)
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Approach to Valuation
Historical Loss Distribution 1995–1999 Vintages
Asymmetric with positive skew
Dispersion across deals is important
Deal Loss Distribution (1995–1999 Vintages)
Deals 1995–1999 Vintage
24
Average = 2.22%
18
Loss > CMBX.3.BBB- C.S. (26% of all deals)
12
Loss > CMBX.3.BBB C.S. (16% of all deals)
6
0
0.0–0.5%
0.5–1.0%
1.0–1.5%
1.5–2.0%
2.0–2.5%
2.5–3.0%
3.0–3.5%
3.5–4.0%
4.0–4.5%
4.5–5.0%
5.0–5.5%
5.5–6.0%
6.0–6.5%
6.5–7.0%
7.0–7.5%
7.5–8.0%
8.0–8.5%
8.5–9.0%
9.0–9.5%
10.0%
>10%
9.5-
Realized Deal Loss Buckets
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Expected Bond Losses across Capital Structure
25%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Average Deal Loss
AJ AA A BBB BBB-
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Expected Bond Losses across Capital Structure
100%
1995–1999 LB Research
Vintages Base Case
75%
The infamous
1986 vintage
50%
25%
0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Average Deal Loss
AJ AA A BBB BBB-
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
What’s Priced into Spreads?
Use CMBX.4, as of April 25, 2008
AJ AA A BBB BBB-
Current Spread (bp) 310 448 651 1215 1652
Implied Price (100-Upfront) 85.4 81.8 81.8 65.1 51.7
Average Credit Support (%) 12.3 10.2 7.8 4.4 3.4
Market Implied Averages(1)
Bond Loss (%) 32 42 53 77 88
Loss Timing (Years) 8.6 7.5 6.2 5.3 4.8
Deal Loss (%) 14.4 11.0 9.5 8.4 8.4
Deal Loss with Risk Premium (%)(2) 16.5 8.9 8.3 7.1 7.6
Average Deal Loss: Historical Context
1995–1999 CMBS Vintage Avg. (%) 2.2
1986 Vintage (Est. Worst Pre-CMBS Cohort) (%)(3) 8.1
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
1. Based on our loss dispersion approach.
2. Risk premium set at 200bp for AJ to single-A classes and 400bp for BBB/BBB- classes.
3. “Commercial Mortgage Defaults” 30 Years of History” – by Esaki and Goldman in the Winter 2005 edition of
CMBS World.
Trade Recommendations
Key Considerations When Putting Trades On
Technical
– Spread betas
– Spread duration
– Liquidity
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
CMBX Specific Trade Recommendations
CMBX.3
Current Spread (bp) 311 444 574 1130 1632
Implied Price (100 Upfront) 89.3 74 69.7 55 46.2
Market Implied Average
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 30%; 7.9yr 37%; 6.8yr 44%; 6yr 70%; 5.4yr 84%; 4.8yr
Avg. Deal Loss 13.5% 9.8% 8.0% 6.9% 7.1%
Base Case Average (Deal Loss = 3.75%)
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 1%; 8yr 4%; 7.4yr 9%; 6.6yr 31%; 6.5yr 48%; 6.5yr
Fair Spread over Dupers (bp) 8 37 95 350 570
Mkt. Implied / Base Case Deal Loss 3.6X 2.6X 2.1X 1.8X 1.9X
2X Base Case Average (Deal Loss = 7.5%)
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 7%; 7.9yr 20%; 6.9yr 39%; 6yr 76%; 5.2yr 87%; 4.6yr
Fair Spread over Dupers (bp) 64 220 490 1311 1804
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
CMBX Relative Value Snapshot
As of April 25, 2008
AJ AA A BBB BBB-
CMBX.2
Current Spread (bp) 248 330 447 746 1053
Implied Price (100 Upfront) 91 80.3 74.7 62.7 52.5
Market Implied Average
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 24%; 8yr 28%; 7.2yr 34%; 6yr 52%; 5.8yr 65%; 5.6yr
Avg. Deal Loss 12.6% 9.3% 7.6% 5.9% 5.8%
Base Case Average (Deal Loss = 3.5%)
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 1%; 8.1yr 2%; 7.5yr 6%; 6.7yr 23%; 6.5yr 37%; 6.5yr
Fair Spread over Dupers (bp) 5 24 68 270 450
Mkt. Implied / Base Case Deal Loss 3.6X 2.7X 2.2X 1.7X 1.6X
2X Base Case Average (Deal Loss = 7.0%)
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 5%; 8.1yr 15%; 7.2yr 29%; 6.1yr 63%; 5.4yr 77%; 5.1yr
Fair Spread over Dupers (bp) 51 164 369 1027 1449
CMBX.1
Current Spread (bp) 145 227 277 440 548
Implied Price (100 Upfront) 96.2 87.7 85.5 78.8 75.7
Market Implied Average
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 13%; 7.3yr 18%; 6.8yr 21%; 5.9yr 33%; 5.7yr 42%; 5.8yr
Avg. Deal Loss 10.3% 8.1% 6.2% 4.5% 4.1%
Base Case Average (Deal Loss = 2.75%)
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 0%; 6.8yr 1%; 6.7yr 3%; 6.5yr 13%; 6.2yr 22%; 6.3yr
Fair Spread over Dupers (bp) 2 10 36 153 253
Mkt. Implied / Base Case Deal Loss 3.7X 3X 2.3X 1.6X 1.5X
2X Base Case Average (Deal Loss = 5.5%)
Bond Loss; Loss Timing 2%; 7.4yr 8%; 6.9yr 16%; 5.9yr 45%; 5.5yr 61%; 5.3yr
Fair Spread over Dupers (bp) 26 88 209 670 958
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
CMBX Trade Example
Difference (BBB-.1-BBB-.4)
BBB-1.
BBB-.4
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Index Swaps
Index Swap Basics
Payer Receiver
S(1)/12
Or in Other Words
(CMBS spd tightening(1) index dur) + beg. spd/12
Payer Receiver
S(1)/12
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
1. Historically, the spread “S” has been negative in most trades.
Index Swap Basics
Pay or receive duration/neutral or total returns on an underlying CMBS index
– AAA 8.5+yr, AAA SD 8.5+ yr index
Funding (or financing) spread
– Determines what the payer receives in exchange for paying index returns
• Negative funding spread – in favor of payer
• Positive funding spread – in favor of receiver
AAA 8.5+ Fin Level Adj for Sprd Chg Sprd Pickup over Cash Bond, AAA 8.5+
AAA SD 8.5+ Fin Level Adj for Sprd Chg Sprd Pickup over Cash Bond, AAA SD 8.5+
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Index Swap Basics
Breakeven spread widening
– How much spread widening can you withstand before losing money
on the trade?
**All markets are assuming Duration Neutral (D/N) and Yesterday's Fix (Y/F)**
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Index Swap Basics
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers.
Index Swap Basics
What is mid-mkt 6m breakeven spread as of Friday, 4/25/08?
Prior day close of index = 228 bp
Mid mkt funding spread = -350 bp
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers
Fastest Growing CMBS Derivative Market
Index swaps
AAA 8.5+ year index most actively traded
– AAA SD 8.5+ year index (senior 30% credit support AAAs only) launched in
January 2008
Index Swap Volume
Notional (mn)
225,000
180,000
135,000
90,000
45,000
0
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008* (YTD 4/23/08
Data Annualized)
________________ AAA 8.5+ ERISA Eligible SD8.5+ Other
Source: Lehman Brothers
Fastest Growing CMBS Derivative Market
Index swaps
Hedge fund / prop desk trading on the rise, bank trading on the decline
90,000
45,000
0
FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008* (YTD 4/23/08
Data Annualized)
________________ Bank Hedge Fund Ins Co Money Mgr
Source: Lehman Brothers
What Drives the Funding Spread?
Jul-07
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Oct-05
Oct-06
Oct-07
6 mo avg Financing Spread (rhs) AAA 8.5+ Year Index Spreads Financing Levels (rhs0
________________
Source: Lehman Brothers
Summary
CMBX Updates
– Relative value, trade updates, credit performance published regularly
– Spreads, prices on LehmanLive (keyword: TSP)
– Get on our distribution list
Index Swaps
– Periodically highlight dislocations (3/28/08)
– Index spreads, funding levels on LehmanLive (keyword: TSP)
Analyst Certification and Important Disclosures
Explanation of the Lehman Brothers Mortgage Model
The Lehman Brothers Mortgage Valuation Model allows investors to analyze mortgage-backed (MBS), asset-backed (ABS) and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). The model collects pertinent and
material information needed to evaluate and calculate the risk measures of the security. The model provides option-adjusted spreads and durations along with other risk measures using Lehman Brothers'
Prepayment, Default, and Term Structure Models.
Analyst Certification.
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of Neil Barve and Aaron Bryson, the primary analysts responsible for this report, about the subject securities or issuers referred to herein, and
no part of such analyst’s compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed herein.
Important Disclosures.
Lehman Brothers, Inc., and / or an affiliate thereof (the “firm”) regularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the fixed income securities that are the
subject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). The firm’s trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities and / or derivative instruments, which may pose a potential
conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject to appropriate information barrier restrictions, the firm’s fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk
personnel to determine current prices of fixed income securities. The firm’s fixed income research analyst(s) receive compensation based on various factors including, but not limited to, the quality of their work,
the overall performance of the firm (including the profitability of the investment banking department), the profitability and revenues of the Fixed Income Division and the outstanding principal amount and trading
value of, the profitability of, and the potential interest of the firm’s investing clients in research with respect to, the asset class covered by the analyst.
Lehman Brothers generally does and seeks to do investment banking and other business with the companies discussed in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a potential
conflict of interest.
To the extent that any historical pricing information was obtained from Lehman Brothers trading desks, the firm makes no representation that it is accurate or complete. All levels, prices and spreads are historical
and do not represent current market levels, prices or spreads, some or all of which may have changed since the publication of this document.
Lehman Brothers’ global policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection with investment research is available at www.lehman.com/researchconflictspolicy.
To obtain copies of fixed income research reports published by Lehman Brothers please contact Valerie Monchi (vmonchi@lehman.com; 212-526-3173) or clients may go to https://live.lehman.com/
Company-Specific Disclosures.
Dow Jones, CDX and the index names referred to herein are service marks of Dow Jones & Company, Inc. and / or CDS Indexco, LLC and have been licensed for use by Lehman Brothers. The indices referred to
herein are the property of CDS Indexco, LLC and are used under license. Any products mentioned herein are not sponsored, endorsed or promoted by Dow Jones & Company, Inc., CDS Indexco, LLC or any of its
members.
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