Activity 10-Forecasting

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HISTORICAL FORECAST

1999 2020 2021 2022 2023


Sales Growth 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Revenue 259,479.00 275,962.00 292,519.72 310,070.90 328,675.16
FORECAST
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
348,395.67 369,299.41 391,457.37 414,944.81 439,841.50
REVENUE 3-yr MA 5-yr MA 500,000.00
1999 259,479.00 450,000.00
2020 275,962.00 400,000.00
2021 292,519.72 275,986.91
350,000.00
2022 310,070.90 292,850.87
300,000.00
2023 328,675.16 310,421.93 293,341.36
250,000.00
2024 348,395.67 329,047.24 311,124.69
200,000.00
2025 369,299.41 348,790.08 329,792.17
150,000.00
2026 391,457.37 369,717.48 349,579.70
100,000.00
2027 414,944.81 391,900.53 370,554.48
50,000.00
2028 439,841.50 415,414.56 392,787.75
-
1999 2020 2021 2022

Revenue
9 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Revenue 3-yr MA 5-yr MA


Data Television Ads Revenue
1999 31 259,479.00
Relationship between a
500,000.00
2020 190 275,962.00
450,000.00
2021 60 292,519.72 400,000.00
2022 205 310,070.90 350,000.00
f(x) = 87.4840619482283 x + 3326
2023 106 328,675.16 300,000.00 R² = 0.007867576985258

Revenue
250,000.00
2024 54 348,395.67
200,000.00
2025 181 369,299.41 150,000.00
2026 145 391,457.37 100,000.00
2027 130 414,944.81 50,000.00
2028 85 439,841.50 -
20 40 60 80 100 120
Totals 1187 3,430,645.54 Number of televisio
Average 118.7 343,064.55

Forecast Function
Forecast Revenue
100 341,428.60
150 345,802.81
200 350,177.01

Equation of a line
Forecast Revenue
87.484 100 341,428.40
332,680 150 345,802.60
200 350,176.80
Relationship between ads and revenue

f(x) = 87.4840619482283 x + 332680.195987247


R² = 0.007867576985258

40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220


Number of television ads
Promotion Advertising Revenue
1999 73 133 259,479.00
2020 127 244 275,962.00
2021 171 331 292,519.72
2022 127 244 310,070.90
2023 126 241 328,675.16
2024 127 311 348,395.67
2025 223 244 369,299.41
2026 127 343 391,457.37
2027 117 244 414,944.81
2028 127 343 439,841.50
Totals 1,345.00 2,678.00 3,430,645.54

Promotion 125 75 200


Advertising 250 300 300
Revenues 333,946.19 359,681.83 359,482.54
333,946.19 359,681.83 359,482.54

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept 205865.85757 90087.149616554 2.285185605749 0.05620496817 -7156.401173
Promotion -1.5942876398 523.34568607435 -0.0030463376 0.99765437628 -1239.110189
Advertising 513.11847745 311.82963067049 1.645509043986 0.14386116387 -224.2414296

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.5531951643
R Square 0.3060248898
Adjusted R Squa 0.1077462869
Standard Error 57137.886714
Observations 10
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 2 10077649347.019 5038824673.509 1.54340854369 0.278422053
Residual 7 22853166686.713 3264738098.102
Total 9 32930816033.731

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept 205865.85757 90087.149616554 2.285185605749 0.05620496817 -7156.401173
Promotion -1.5942876398 523.34568607435 -0.0030463376 0.99765437628 -1239.110189
Advertising 513.11847745 311.82963067049 1.645509043986 0.14386116387 -224.2414296
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
418888.11631 -7156.40117 418888.116307
1235.9216136 -1239.11019 1235.92161362
1250.4783845 -224.24143 1250.4783845
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
418888.11631 -7156.40117 418888.116307
1235.9216136 -1239.11019 1235.92161362
1250.4783845 -224.24143 1250.4783845

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