Systems Approach To Marketing: by Lee Adler

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Systems Approach

to Marketing
• What it is
• Who has tried it
• Why it is needed
• Where it is useful
• Hoiv it can be applied

By Lee Adler There is an expanding list of sophisticated


applications of systems theory — and not in
More anil more businessmen today recot;nize one but in many sectors of tbe marketing front.
that corporate success is. in most cases, synony- The construction of mathematical and/or log-
mous witli marketing success and with the com- ical models to describe, quantify, antl e\aluate
ing of age of a new breed of professional man- alternate marketing strategies and mixes is an
agers. They Hnd it increasingly important not obvious case in point. So. too, is the formula-
only to pay lip scr\'ice to the marketing concept tion ol' management information systems ' and
but to do something about it in terms of (a) cus- of marketing plans with built-in performance
tomer orientation, rather than navel-ga/ing in measureinents of predetermined goals. But no
the factory, (b) organizational revisions to im- less \ital is the role of tbe systems approach in
plement the marketing concept, and (c) a more the design and sale of products and services.
orderly approach to problem solving. M'hen J. P. Stevens Company color-hainioni/cs
In an increasing number of companies we linens and bedspreads, and towels and batb
see more conscious and formal ettorts to apply mats, it is creating a product system. And when
rational, fact-based methods for solving mar- Avco Corimration sells systems management to
keting problems, and greater recognition of the the space exploration field, involving the mar-
benelits these methods otter. W^hile these heiie- riage of many scientific disciplines as well as
fits may be newly realized, there is nothing new adherence to budgetary constraints, on-time per-
about the underlying philosophy; in the parlance formance, and quality control, it is creating a
of military men and engineers, it is the systems service system.
approach. For, whether we like it or not, mar- In this article I shall discuss the utili/ati(m
keting is, bv definition, a system, if we accept of the systems concept in marketing in both
Webster's definition of system as "an assemblage quantitative and qualitati\e u'ays uith case his-
of objects united by some form of regular inter- tories drawn from various industries. In doing
action or interdependence." Certainly, the in- so, my focus will be more managerial and pbilo-
teraction of such "objects" as product, pricing,
proinotion. sales calls, distribution, and so on ' See, for example. Donald F. Cox and Hobert 1:. Good,
'•How to Build a Marketing Infonnation System," on page
fits the definition. 145 of this issue.

105
106 HBR May-June 1967
sophical than technical, and I will seek to dis- background and the conceptual development of
sipate some of the hocus-pocus, j;;Iamor, mys- the systems approach may wish to turn to the
tery, and fear which pervade the field. The hox on page 112.)
systems concept is not esoteric or "science fic-
tion" in nature (although it sometinies sounds Promising Applications
that way in promotional descriptions). Its ad-
vantages are not subtle or indirect; as we shall Now let us look at some examples of corpo-
see, they are as real and immediate as decision rate application of the systems approach. Here
makino itself. The limitations are also real, and we will deal with specific parts or "suhsystcms"
these, too, will he discussed. of the total marketing; system. I',xiiiitiT 1 is a
(Readers interested in a hrief summary of the schematic portrayal of these rehitionships.
Products & Services
EXHIBIT I. MARKETING SUBSYSTEMS AND THE
TOTAL SYSTEM The objective of the systems ajiproach in
product management is to provide a complete
SUBSYSTEMS "offering" to the market rather than merely a
product. If the purpose of business is to create
a customer at a profit, then the needs of the cus-
PRODUCT FUNCTIONS tomer must be carefully attended to; we must,
• PACKAGING in short, study what the customer is buying or
• PRICING
• BRAND NAME wants to buy, rather than what we are trying
to sell.
In the consumer products field \ve have
N E W PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT forged ahead in understanding that the custom-
er buys nutrition (not breail), beauty (not cos-
metics), warmth (not fuel oil). Hut in indus-
DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS

PHYSICAL DISTRIBUTION MAKING


MARKETING & KEEPING
CUSTOMERS
SYSTEM
AT A PROFIT
FIELD SALES

MARKETING INTELLIGENCE
trial products this concept has been slo^ver in
gaining a footholil. \\niere it has gained a foot-
hold, it expresses itself in two ways: the crea-
MARKETING ADMINISTRATION tion of a complete product system sold (1) as a
• PLANNING unit, or (2) as a component or components
• BUDGETING
• CONTROL
which are part of a larger consumption system.
• EVALUATION Perhaps the most eloquent testimony to the
workahility and \alue of the systems approach
comes from companies that haAc actually used
ADVERTISING it. For a good example let us turn to the case
of Tbe Carhorundum Company. This experi-
ence is especially noteworthy because it conies
SALES PROMOTION from industrial marketing, where, as just indi-
& MERCHANDISING cated, progress with the systems concept has
generally been slow.
Birth of the Concept. Founded in 1894, the

I PUBLICITY & PUBLIC RELATIONS ii^


company was content for many years to sell
abrasives. It offered an extremly broad line of
Systems Approach 107
K i n g wheels, coated ahrasives, and ahrasive (3) An Abrasives Systems Center was estab-
grain, with a reputed capacity for 200,000 dif- lisbed to handle development work and to solve
ferent products of varying type, grade, and customer problems.
forimtlation. But the focus was on the product. (4) Technical conferences and seminars were
In the mid-1950's. Carborundum perceived held to educate customers on tbe new develop-
that the market for ahrasives eould be broad- ments.
ened eonsiderably if — looking at ahrasives (5) Salesmen were trained in machine and ap-
through customers' eyes — it would see the plication knowledge.
product as fitting into metal polishing, cleaning,
or removal systems. Now Carhorundum is con- Planning. A key tool in the systems approach
cerned with all aspects of abrading — the tna- is planning — in particular, the use ot" what I
chinc, the contact wheel, the workpieee, the like to call "total business plans." (This term
labor eost, the overhead rate, the abrasive, and, emphasizes the contrast with company plans
ahove all, the customer's ohjective. In the words tbat eover only limited functions.) At Carbo-
of Carborundum's president, W. H. Wendel: rundum, total business plans are developed with
extreme care by tbe operating cotiipanies and
"That ohjective is never the abrasive per se, but divisions. Very specific objectives are estab-
rather the creation of a certain dimension, a type lished, and then detailed action programs are
of finish, or a rc(|tiircd shape, always related to a outlined to achieve these objectives. The action
miiiitiium cost. Since there are many variables to programs extend throughout the organization,
consider, just one can be misleading. To render including the manufacturing and developtiicnt
maximum service. Carborundum (must offer) a brancbes of the operating unit. Management
complete system." ^ sets specific dates for the completion of action
steps and defines who is responsible for thetn.
Organizational Overhaul To offer such a Also, it carefully tiieasures results against estab-
s\stfm, managetiient had to overhaul important lished objectives. This is done hoth in the finan-
parts of the organization: cial reporting system and in \arious marketing
(1) The company needed to enhance its knowl- committees.
edge of the total system. As Wendel explains:
"We fcU wo had excellent knowledge of coat- Quantitative Methods. Carborundum bas
ed abrasive products, but that we didn't have utilized various operations research techniques,
the application and mathiiie know-how in depth. like decision tree analysis and PERT, to aid
To be really successful in the business, we bad in molding plans and strategies. For example,
to know as mueh about the machine tools as we one analysis, which concerned itself witb deter-
did the abrasives." ^ mining tbe necessity for plant expansion, was
based on different possible levels ol" success lor
To fill this need. Carborundum made three ae- tbe marketing plan. In addition, tbe computer
(juisitions — The Tysatiian Machine Company,
which builds beavy-duty snagging, billet grinding, has been used for inventory tuanagetnent, evalu-
and abrasive eut-off maehincs; Curtis Machine ation of alternate pricing strategics for sys-
Clotiipany, a maker of belt sanders; and Pangborn tems selling, and the measurement of market-
Corporation, vvliich supplied systems capability in ing achievements against goals.
abrasive blast cleaning and linisbing. It should be noted, though, that tbese quan-
(2) The company's abrasive divisions were reor- titative techniques are management tools only
j;ani/ed, and the managetnent of them was realigned and that iiuich of the application of systems
to accommodate tbe new philosophy and its appli- thinking to the redeployment of Carborundum's
cation. The eompany found that centering re- business is qualitative in nature.
spo}isihiltty for the full system in oue profit center
proved to be tbe most effcetive method of coor- Gains Achieved. As a consequence of these
dinating approaches in application engineering, developments, the eompany bas opened up vast
iboice of distribution channels, brand identifica- nc\\' tuiukets. To quote Carborundum's presi-
tion, field sales operations, and so forth. This dent again;
method was particularly valuable for integrating
tbe acquisitions into tbe new program. "Customers don't want a grinding wheel, tbey
want metal removed. . . . The U.S. and Ca-
" "Abrasive Maker's Systems Approach Opens New Mar-
kets." Steel, December 17. 1965. P- 38. nadian market for abrasives amounts to S700 mil-
^ Ihid. lion a \car. But wbat companies spend on stock
EXHIBIT II. WORK FLOW AND SYSTEMS CHART FOR MANAGEMENT OF NEW PRODUCTS

MARKET-TREND
ANTICIPATION!

ANALYSIS OF
MARKET MARKET & PRODUCT
SfGMENTATlON CHARACTERISTICS
MARKET
ASSESSMfNT Of
FHtStWT SIZE, PROSPECTS fOfl A
GflDVYTH POTENTIAL COMPHITIVF t n o r
COKSUMEflS STABILITY. ETC.

TRADE a> INOUSTfllAL COMPATIBILITY WIIH


CUSTOMERS COMPANY MISSION.
POLICY. & COMMllNICABILITt
MUITIBRANO CAPABILITIES OF ••APPEALS"
SHAHEOSVKERS PROOUCT
IDENTIFY IDEA
SOURCES- COMPATIBILITY MARKET EDUCATION
FINANCIAL MULJIPRODUCT INTERNAL WITH LAW REQUIRED
COMMUNITY tlRANO & fXTEfiNAl & PUBLIC OPINION

1 NEW PRODUCT
MAGNITUDE OF
INVESTMENTS
SALES
ORGANIZATION

MANAGEMENT IMPROVEMENTS
DETERMINATION OF
PRODUCT FIELDS
& MARKETS
OF PRIMARY INTEREST
SCREENING EVALUATION
• ESTABLISH COMPANY MISSION
ASSIGN SET CRITERIA:
(VISION S DEFINITION NEW PRODUCTS RESPONSIBILITY APPOINT
OF THE BUSINESS) & SERVICES UTILIZE PRODUCT TEAM
FOR EXISTtNG DATA TO EVALUATE
PLANNED IDEA & INFORMED EACH
IDENTIFY GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES EXPLORATION OPINION SELECTED IDEA

EVALUATE COMPANY RESOURCES

ANALYZE MAJOR PROBLEMS N E W LOOK


AT
OLD PRODUCTS

DISTRIBUTION
lATED PAYOUT REOUIREMENTS
OtSTRIBLITIDN
EMPLOYEES INNOVATIONS MARKETING EFFE IDEA GENERATION
DEGREE OE RISK POSSIBLE EFFECTS
ON OTHER
PUNT COMMUNITIES MERGER & •• T H E PRODUCT LINES
IDEA COLLECTION
ACOUISITION PRODUCT COMPETITION-
PRESENT &
SUPPLIERS POTENTIAL PHOOUCIBILITY
OVERSEAS RETIRING PRODUCTS
EXPANSION
GOVERNMENT PATENT & TENTATIVE
PROPRIETARY SPECIFICATIONS
INVESTMENT CONSIDERATIONS
OTHER INTEREST THINKING
GROUPS & PUBLIC COST PROFIT
POLICY PROJECTIONS
PERIODIC REVIEW
UNORTHODOX OF SHELVED IDEAS
SOLUTIONS VISUAL MODEL OF
THE PRODUCT
BUSINESS

PRODUCT PLAN F[)H


MANAGEMENT
APPROVAL

NOTE: This flow diaB'Bm WBS devoloped by Paul E. Funk. Piesident.


and th« SIBK ol McCflnn, ITSM, Inc.
PRODUCT IDEA STAGE
DETERMINATION OF
CRITERIA FOR
SUCCESS & TEST
DESIGN

CUSTOMER RE-
TINUE MARKET
SPONSE TO PRODUCT
OIES TO ENHANCE
LINE - REASONS
DUCT SALABIIITY
FOR BUYING PRODUCT DESIGN
MODIFICATIONS OF
& NOT BUYING tVALUATEO
PROOUCT LINE.
wmm STUDIES s PRODUCTION PRO- MEASUREMENT
TOTYPE DEVELOPMENT CESS, & MARKETING SYSTEMS
PACKAGING & METH- MIX COMPLETED PRODUCT QUALITY
OPERATIVE FOR ALL FVALUATCD '
ODS OF SHIPMENT ELEMENTS OF THE
ORATORY TESTING S
IITY CONTRDL STUDIES MARKETING MIX
PRODUCTION FACIL-
PRICE STRUCTURES PROOUCT NAME &
ITIES COMPLETED
SYMBOL EVALUATI

I
CK WITH S A L E S M E N ^ INTEGRATED DATA
CUSTOMERS ^ PROCESSING
TRADE RESPONSE WAREHOUSING SYSTEMS OPERATIVE
IDUCT DESIGN & TO PRODUCT LINE POINTS & SHIPPING PACKAGING
TESTING PAnERNS EVALUATED
ANTICIPATE
EFFECTIVENESS OF COMPETITIVE
IKAGE DESIGN & COUNTERMOVES PRICING POLICY
COMMUNICATtDNS INVENTORY LEVELS
iTAINER ENGINEERING EVALUATED
TOOLS

EASE DESIGNS FOR QUALITY CONTROL KICK-OFF SALES


3T PRODUCTION MEDIA MEDIA EFFECTIVE- SYSTEM OPERATIVE MEETING INVENTORY SYSTI
SUECTION NESS & MIX EVALUATED
IDUCTION DEVELOPMENT
PRODUCTION DATA PREVIEW PRESENTA-
PflOOUCT EFFECTIVENESS OF PROCESSING SYSTEM TIONS TO KEY DISTRIBUTIDN
OT PRODUCTION UTERATUflE SALES METHODS OPERATIVE TRADE CUSTOMERS PAHERN EVALUATED

BUILDING
PRODUCTION
DEVELOPMENT CAPACITY &
INVENTORIES
MARKETING
PRODUCT COMMUNI- MARKET FULL SCALE MEASUREMENT
|& PRODUCTION) CATIONS TESTING INTRODUCTION & EVALUATION
DEVELOPMENT
READYING THE
TESTING SALES FORCE &
DISTRIBUTION

ECK GOVERNMENT COOES BUDGET TECHNICAL SERVICE TRADE PRESS


IPINION TRENDS DETERMINATION EFFECTIVENESS OETEHMINATION OF CONFERENCE
NUMBERS.
NOUCr TESTS OF BACKGROUNDS, &
SALES OISTRIBOTIDN KINDS OF MEN TRADE
flFURMANCE
PRODUCT IN USE PROMOTION PAHERNS COMMUNICATIONS TECHNICAL SERVICE
PROGRAM LAUNCHED EVALUATED
SALES RECRUITING
NDUCT TESTS DF DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM
MERCHANDISING
DDUCT DURABILITY NEGOTIATIONS TRADE SHOVi/ EXHIBIT CDMMUNICATIONS
TOOLS & MIX M
SALES TRAINING
ST QUALITY EVALUATED •
SHOWS & PROGRAM
INTROL SYSTEM EXHIBITS OPTIMUM PRODUCT INTRODUCTION TO
CHARACTERISTICS. TRADE COMPLETED
PROOUCT-LINE MtX, SALES AlOS _ OVERALL MARKETING
ST PRODUCTION & MARKETABILITY PROGRAM * MIX EVALUATED
STEM & ESTABLISH mm
ODUCTION COSTS GENEHAL PRESS
SALES INCENTIVE CONFERENCE
OPTIMUM
MARKETING MIX PROGRAMS SALES. CDST. S
T OUTSIDE PROFES-
PROFIT FORECASTS
ONAL EVALUATION
CONSUMER EVALUATED
REGIONAL DISTRIBU- CDMMUNICATIDNS
NATIONAL PROJEC-
ART TECHNICAL SERVICE TION & TERRITORIES PROGRAM LAUNCHED
TIONS OF MARKH-
VELOPMENT BUSINESS
ING COST LEVELS.
SALES. & PROFITS EVALUATION REPORT
SALES DATA &
1PR0VE PRODUCT DESIGN INTRODUCTIDN PREPARED FOR MAN
INOUIRY PROCESSING
FREEZE SPECIFICATIONS MDNITDRED AGEMENT REVIEW
OPERATIVE
PREPARATION DF
lEPARE REPORT & REPORT & RECOM-
[COMMENDATION FOR MENDATIONS
ANAGEMENT APPROVAL

DEVELOPMENT & TEST STAGE FULL-SCALE COMMERCIALIZATION


110 Him May-june 1967
removal — to bore, grind, cut, shape, and finish ing on the present and sheilding light on the
metal — amounts to S30 hillion a year."'* future. It is particularistic, tending to concen-
trate on the study of tiny fractions of a markcl
Illustrating this market expansion in the steel
ing problem rather than on the problem as a
intlustry is Carbortindum's commercial success
whole. It lends itself to assuaging the curiosity
with three new developments — hot (grinding,
of the moment, to fire-fighting, to resolving in
an arborless wheel to sjjeed metal removal and
ternecine disputes. It is a slave to techni(|uc.
cut grinding costs, and high-speed conditioning
I shall not, therefore, relate the term iiiarketin'^
of carbon steel billets. All represent conver-
research to the systems approach — although 1
sions from nonabrasive methods. Carborundum
recognize, of course, that some lcatlln;^ business-
now also finds that the close relationship with
men and writers are breathing new life and
customers gives it a competitive edge, opens
sco|ie into the ideas referred to by that term.
top customer management doors, gains entree
The role of the s)Stems approach is to help
for salesmen with prosj^ects they had never hcen
evolve a marketing intelligence system tailored
ahle to "crack" before. Perhaps the ultimate ac-
to the needs of each marketer. Such a system
colade is the company's report that customers
would serve as the ever-alert nerve center of thi'
even come to the organization itself, regarding
marketing operation. It would have these major
it as a consultant as well as a supplier.
characteristics:
Profitable Innovation • Continuous surveillance of the market.
The intense pressure to originate successful • A team of research techniques used in tan-
new products cannot be met without method- dem.
ologicB calculated to enhance the probabilities • A network of data sources.
of profitable innovation. The systems ap]iroach • Integrated analysis of data from the various
has a bearing here, too. EXHIBIT II shows a sources.
model for "tracking" products through the many • Effeetivc utilization of automatic data-pro-
stages of ideation, tievelopment, and testing to cessing equipment to distill mountains of raw
ultimate full-scale commercialization. This dia- information speedily.
gram is in effect a larger version of the "New
• Strong concentration not just on reportinji
Product Dcveloi>ment" box in EXHIRIT I. findings but also on practical, aetion-orienteil
Observe that this is a logical (specifically, se- reeommendations.
quential), rather than numerical, model. While
some elements of the total system (e.g., alter- Concept in Use. A practical instance of the
nate distribution channels and various media use of such an intelligence system is supplied
mixes) can be analyzed by means of operations by Mead Johnson Nutritionals (division ol' Mead
research techniques, the model has not been Johnson & Company), manufacturers of Metre-
cast in mathematical terms. Rather, the flow cal, Pablum, Bib, Nutrament, and other nutri-
diagram as a whole is used as a checklist to make tional specialties. As EXHIBIT HI shows, the
sure "all bases are covered" and to help organ- company's Marketing Intelligence Department
ize the chronological sequence of steps in new has provided information from these sources:
product developtiient. It also serves as a con-
— A continuing large-scale consumer market
ceptual foundation for formal PERT applica- study covering attitudinal and behavioral data deal-
tion, should management desire such a step, ing with weight control.
and for the gradual development of a series of
equations linking together elements in the dia- — Nielsen store audit dala, on a bimonthly
grams, should it seem useful to experiment with basis.
mathematical models. — A monthly sales audit conducted among ji
panel of 100 high-volume food stores in 20 mar-
kets to provide advance indications of brand share
Marketing Intelligence shifts.
The traditional notion of marketing research — Supermarket warehouse withdrawal figures
is fast becoming antiquated. For it leads to from Time, Ine.'s new service, Selling Areas-Mar-
dreary chronicles of the past rather than focus- keting, Inc.
' "Carborundum Grinds at Faster Clip," Business Week, — Salesmen's weekly reports (which, in addi-
July 2:^, 1966, pp. 58, 60. tion to serving the purposes of sales management
Sysienis Approach II I
control, call for reconnaissance on competitive pro- — CompetitiM- advertising expenditure and ex-
motions, new product launehes, price changes, and posure data, supplied by the division's advertising
so forth). agencies at periodie intervals.
— Advertising expenditure data, bv media class, — A panel of weight-conseious women.
from the company's accounting departuient.
— Figures on sales and related topies from com- To exemplify the type of outputs possible
pany factories. from this svstem, Mead Johnson will be able.

III. MEAD JOHNSON'S MARKETING INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM

IRREGULARLY SCHEDULED REPORTS IRREGULARLY ISSUED REPORTS

ADVERTISING PRETESTS ADVERTISING QUALITY


SPECIAL CONSUMER PRODUCT QUALITY
STUDIES COLLECTION,
• MARKETING OPPORTUNITIES
REPORTED BASIC CONSUMER
ANALYSIS, OUT
• TESTS OF CONCEPTS
WANTS & NEEDS
• PRODUCT PWCEMENTS
INTERPRETATION,
BASES FOR
CATALOGING SEGMENTATION
PRODUCT QUALITY TESTS
GOVERNMENTAL & TRADE CONSUMER & MARKET
REACTIONS TO SPECIAL
INFORMATION S T I M U L I (E.G. PROMOtlONS.
PRODUCTS. PACKAGES,
AOVEHTISING)

MONTHLY, BIMONTHLY,
BIMONTHLY OR QUARTERLY REPORTS OR QUARTERLY REPORTS
i
ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE CONSUMER
ESTIMATES AWARENESS, AHiTUDES,
PURCHASE, & USE
FOOD & DRUGSTORE
SYNDICATED FACTORY
PANEL AUDITS OF SALES &INVENTDRY
INVENTORY & SALES
WHOLESALE
PERIODIC CONSUMER WITHDRAWAL RATES
SURVEYS (AWARENESS,
ATTITUDE, USAGE) RETAIL
SALES, PRICES.
INVENTORY,
& DISTRIBUTION

ADVERTISING
SALES REUTtONSHIPS
. WCCKtY. OR MONTHLY REPORTS & EXPENSE

SPECIAL STORE AUDITS


SALES ACCOUNTING REPORTS

WAREHOUSE WITHDRAWAL
REPORTS MARKETING
INTELLIGENCE LIBRARY OF
CONSUMER PANEL REPORTS
PRIMARY 8> SECONDARY
SALES CALL REPORTS DATA
112 [IBR May~]iine 1967

What Is the Systems Approach?


There seems to be agreement that the systems approach sprang to life as a scniantically kicntili-
able term sometime during World War II. It was associated with the problem of how to 'bomb tar-
gets deep in Germany more eflectivelv From British bases, with the Manhattan Project, and with
studies of optimum seareh patterns for destroyers to use in locating U-boats tluring the Battle of
the North Atlantic* Subsequently, it was utilized in the defeat of the Berlin bloekade. It luis
reached its present culmination in the success of great military systems such as Polaris and Min-
uteman.
Not surprisingly, the parallels between military and marketing strategies being what they are. the
definition of the systems approach propounded by The RAND Corporation for the U.S. Air Force
is perfectly apt for marketers:
"An inquiry to aid a decision-maker choose a eourse of action by systematicaliy in\ estigating his proper
objeeti\es, comparing quantitatively where possible the costs, effectiveness, and risks associated with the
altcrnati\e policies or strategies for achieving them, and formulating additional alternatives if those ex-
amined are found wanting." t
The systems approach is thus an orderly, "architecturar' discipline for dealing with complex
problems of choice under uncertainty.
Tjpically. in such problems, multiple and possibly conflicting objectives exist. The task of the
systems analyst is to specify a closed operating network in which the components will work to-
gether so as to yield the optimum balance of economy, efficiency, and risk minimization. Put more
broadly, the systems apjiroach attempts to apply the "scientific method"' to complex marketiiv,;
problems studied as a whole; it seeks to discipline marketing.
But disciplining marketing is no easy matter. Marketing' must be perceived as a proeess rather
than as a series of isolated, discrete actions; competitors must be viewed as components of each
marketer's own system. The jiroccss must also I)e comprehended as in\oh ing a How and counter-
flow of information and behiuior between marketers and customers. Some years ago, Marion
Harper, Jr., now chairman of The Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc., referred to the flow of
information in marketing communications as the cycle of "listen (i.e.. marketing research), publish
(messages, media), listen (more marketing research), revise, publish, listen. . . ." More recentl\,
Raymond A. Bauer referred to the "transactional" nature of communications as a factor in the moti-
vations, frames of reference, needs, and so forth of recipients of messages. The desires of the com-
municator alone are but part of the picture.+
Pushing this new awareness of the intricacies of marketing communications still further, The(h
dore Levitt identified the interactions between five different forces — source effect (i.e., the reputa-
tion or credibility of the sponsor of the message), sleeper effect (the declining influenc-e of source
credibility with the passage of time), message effect (the character and quality of the message*,
communicator effect (the impact of the transmitter — e.g., a salesman), and audience effect ("the
competence and responsibilitv of the audience).§ Casting a still broader net are efforts to model
the entire jiurchasing process, and perhaps the ultimate application of the systems concept is at-
tempts to make mathematical models of the entire marketing process.
Mounting recognition of the almost countless elements involved in marketing and of the mind-
boggling complexity of their interactions is a wholesome (though painful) experience. Neverthe-
less, I believe we must not ignore other ramifications of the systems approach \vhich arc qualitati\e
in natuie. For the ^\orld of marketing offers a vast panorama of non- or part-mathematical sys-
tems and opportunities to apph' systems thinking. We must not become so bedazzled by the bniu
haha of the operations research experts as to lose sight of the larger picture.
* Sec Glen McDaniel, "The Meaning of The Systems Movement to the Acceleration and Direction of the American
Economy,' in Proceedings of the 1964 Systems Engineering Conference (New York. Clapp & Poliak Ine 1964) p i'
sec also E. S. Quadc, editor, A>wlysis for Military Decisions (Santa Monica, California, The RAND Corporation, 1964)!
p. 6.
t Quadc, op. cit., p. 4.
J "Communications as a Transaction," ViihUc Opuiion Quarterly, Spring 1963, p. 83.
§ See Theodore Levitt, hulustriiil Fiirdiaung Behavior (Boston,' Division of Research, Harvard Business School
1965), p. z^ii
Systems A
with tlic help oF nnalyscs ol' factory sales data, swelled periodically by new information from
waichouse withihawal intorniation. and con- improved sources, so as to make intelligence
sumer purchases from Nielsen, to monitor trans- more immediately accessible to decision makers.
actions at each stage of tlic flow of i^oods And perhaps tbe biggest problem of tbe mo-
through the distribution channel and to detect ment, one underlying some of tbe others, is the
acciinuilations or developing shortages. Man- difficulty in finding qualified marketing-orient-
agement will also be able to spot sources of ed programmers.
potential problems in time to deal with them
t'HV'ctiM'ly. For example, if factory sales ex- Physical Distribution
leed consumer purchases, more promotional A veritable revolution is now taking place in
|)icsstiie is ie(|uired. IJy contrast, if factory physical distribution. Total systems are being
sales lag behinil consumer purchases, stiles ef- evoh'ed out of tbe former hodgepodge of sep-
fort must be further stimulated. arate responsibilities, which were typically scat-
Similarly, the eompany has been able to de- tered among diHerent departments of the same
vise a praetieal measurement of advertising's company. These systems include trafTic and
elfectiveness in stimulating sales — a measure- transportation, warehousing, materials handling,
iiu'iit that is particularly appropriate to fast- protective packaging, order processing, produc-
moving packaged goods. By relating advertising tion planning, inventory eontrol, customer ser-
outlays iind exposure data to the number of vice, market forecasting, and plant and ware-
prospects trying out a product during a cam- house site selection. Motivating this revolution
paign (the number is obtained from the con- are the computer, company drives to reduce
tinuing consumer survey), it is possible to cal- distribution costs, and innovations in transpor-
culate the advertising eost of recruiting such a tation, such as jet air freight, container ships,
prospect. By persisting in sueh analyses during the interstate highway network, and larger and
several campaigns, the relative value of alterna- more versatile freight cars.
tive advertising approaehes can be weighed. Distribution is one area of marketing where
Since measurement of the sales, as opposed to the "bread-and-butter" uses of the computer are
the communications, effects of promotion is a relatively easily deployed for sueb functions as
hoirendously tliflicult, costly, and chancy pro- order processing, real-time inventory level re-
cess, the full signifieance of this achievement is ports, and tracking the movements of goods.
(iifficult to exaggerate. Further into the future lie mathematieal models
which will include every factor bearing on dis-
Benefits Realized. Mead Johnson's market- tribution. Not only will packaging, materials
ing intelligence system has been helpful to handling, transportation and warehouse, order
management in a number of ways. In addition processing, and related eosts be eonsidered in
tn giving executives early warning of new trends sueb motlels; also included will be sales fore-
;ind problems, and valuable insights into future casts by protluct, production rates by factory,
conditions, it is leading to a systematie hody of warehouse locations and capacities, speeds of
knowledge about eompany markets rather than tliflerent carriers, etc. In short, a complete
to isolated seraps of information. This knowl- picture will be developed for management.
edge in turn should lead ultimately to a theory
of marketing in each field tbat will explain the Program in Action. The experiences of the
invsteries that bailie marketers today. What is Norge Division of Borg-Warner Corporation
more, the company expects that the system will point up the values of the systems appriiacb in
help to free its marketing intelligence people pbysical distribution. The firm was confronted
from fire-fighting projects so that they can con- externally with complaints from its dealers and
centrate on long-term factors and eventually be distrif>utors, who were trying to cope with SAVOI-
more consistently creative. len inventories and the pressures of "loading
Despite these gains, it is important to note deals." Internally, because coordination of ef-
that Mead Johnson feels it has a long road still fort between the six departments inx'oKcd in
to travel. More work is needed in linking indi- distribution was at a minimum, distribution
\ itlual data banks. Coneeptual schemes must costs and accounts receivable were mounting
be proved out in practice; ways must still be persistently.
found to reduce an awesome volume of data, To grapple with this situation. Norge under-
114 HHR May-Jiiiie it-)6j
took a comprehensive analysis of its distribu- is completed, (c) a concern tbat such a model
tion system. Out of this grew a new pfiilosopby. \vould be so complex as to be unworkable, and
A company executive bas described the philoso- (d) the difficulty of testing many of the assum]i
phy to me as follows: tions used. In addition, management bas not
"An effeetive system of physical distribution can- tried to quantify the impact of its actions on
not begin at the cm] of the protluction line. It distributor and retailer attitudes anil l)cha\ior.
must also apply at the very beginning of the pro- possible competitive countermoves. and numer-
tluction process — at the planning, schctiuling, ous other faetors contributing to results.
and forecasting stages. Logistics, in short, is piirt
of a larger marketing system, not just an exaliia- Toward Total Integration
tion of freight rates. We must norry not only
about finished refrigerators, but also about tJic The integration of systems de\eloped for
motors coming from another manufacturer, and product management, product innovation, mar-
even about where the copper that goes into tliosc keting intelligenee, pbysical distribution, and
motors will come from. \\'e must be concerned the otber functions or "subsystems" embraced
with total flow." by tbe term ii/arkctiuii creates a total market-
ing system. Tbus. marketing plans composcil
To implement this philosophy, the appliance according to a step-by-stcp outline, ranging
manufacturer took the following steps: from enunciation of objectives and implement
(1) It reorganized the forecasting, prodtiction tational steps to audit and adjustment to en-
selieduling. warehousing, order processing, and vironmental changes, constitute a complete ap-
shipping functions into one department headed by plication of systems theory. Further, as the
a director of ph>sical distribution. various subsystems of the overall system are
(2) The maniigemont information s\stcm was linked quantitatively, so that the eilect of modifi-
improved with the help of EDP equipment tied cations in one clement can be detected in oth-
into the eoinmunications network. This step made er elements, and as the influences of com-
it possible to process and report data more spt-ccl- petitive moves on each element are analy/eil
ily on orders received, inventory levels, and the numerically, tben the total scheme becomes
actual movement of goods. truly sophisticated.
(3) Management used a combination of com-
puter ami manual Icchniciucs to weigh trade-offs
amon^ increased costs of multiple warehousing, re- Pluses &" Miiuises
duced iong-haul freight and local drayage eosts,
reduced inventory pipeline, and the sales value of Two elements underlie the use and benefits
an improved "total" product offering. Also assessed of systems theory — order and knowledge. The
were trade-offs bctA\een shorter production runs first is a homely \irtiie, the second a lofty goal.
and higher inventory levels, thereby challenging Marketing is obviously not alone among all hu-
the traditional "wisdom" of production-oriented
managers that the longer the run, the better. man pursuits in needing them; hut. compared
with its business neighbors, production and
(4) The conipany is setting up new regional finance, marketing's need is acute indeed. The
warehouses. application of the systems concept can bring
considerable advantages. It ofl'ers:
As a result of these moves. Norge has been
able to lower inventories tbroughout its sales • A methodical problem-solving orientation —
channels and to reduce accounts receivable. with a broader frame of referenee so that all as-
These gains bave led, in turn, to a reduction peets of a problem are examined.
of the company's o\erall investment and a con- • Coordinated deployment of all appropriatf
comitant increase in profitability. tools of marketing.
It is essential to note that even though Norge • Greater efficiency anil economy of marketing
has used operations research as part of its sys- operations.
tems approach, many aspects of the jirogram
are qualitative. Tbus far, the eompany has • Quicker recognition of impending problems,
found that the development of an all-encom- made possible by better understiuiding of the com-
plex interplay of main trends and forces.
passing model is not warranted because of (a)
the time and cost involved, (b) the probability • A stimulus to innovation.
that tbe situation will change before the model • A means of (|uantit;Ui\i.l\ \eiif'\ing results.
Systems Approach II 5
Tht'so functional benefits in turn yield rich data network ha\e to be filled and tbe model
rewards in the marketplace. The most impor- tested a«;ainst history. Add to tbis tbe need for
tant giiins arc: manpower of exceptional intcllccUial ability,
conceptual skills, and specialized education —
A deeper pctictrtilioit of existiiiii, tiiarketa — As
an illustration, the Advanced Data Division of Lit- man|Kn\cr tbat is in exeeedingly short supply.
ton Indtistrics has beeome a leader in t!-.e aiito- JJecausc the problems arc complex and involve
inatie revenue eontrol business by desitjniny sys- all elements of tbe business, one man alone ean-
tims meshing together "hardware" and 'software." not solve tbem lie lacks the knowlcd;^e. tools,
and controls. And so many people must be in-
A hvoihlfniu^ of markets — For example, the
tourist industry has attraeted millions of addition- volved. It follows that the activation of systems
al travelers by creating packaged tours that are real- theory can be \er\' costly.
I\ produet-ser\iee systems. These s\stenis are far
more eonvenient and econoniieai than ijiythin^ the Absence of "Canned" Solutions. Unlike oth-
eonsunier eould assemble himself. er business functions where st;unlardi/ed ap-
proacbes to problem soKing are available, sys-
All extension of product lines — Svsttms man- tems must be tailored to the indi\idual situa-
ai^ement makes it more feasible to seek out com-
tion of eacb firm, Even tbe same problem in
patibilities among independently developal s's-
lims. I\videnee ol this idea is the work of atito-
dillercnt companies in the same industry will
nuitie eontrol system specialists since the ca;!" rrequently lead to different solutions because
T95o's/' Now similar sijjns are apparent in niiir of the impact of other inputs, unique ]x'rce]>
k( ting. For example. Aeme Visiblf lUcords is ctir tions of the en\ironment, ami varying eorporate
riiitly dovetailing the design and sale of its reeor-J missions These laetors, too, cimipound time
keeping systems with data-processing machines and and expense demands.
forms.
"Net Uncertainties." Even after exhaustive
A k'ssL'iiin}>, of com petition or a strengthened ca-
pacity to cope with competition — The systems analysis, full optimization of a total problem
a|>pr(KKh lends to make a eompan\ s product line cannot be obtained. Some uncertainty will al-
more tinii|iie and attractive. Carborundum's inno- ways remain and must be dealt witli on the
vation in metal-removal systems is a perfect ilius- basis of judgment and experienee.
Iratioii of this.
Lack of Hard Data. In the world of eni;i-
I'roblcnis in Practice neering, the systems evolved to date ha\e con-
sisted alt or mostiv of machines, Svstems engi-
Havint; just enumerated in glowing terms the neers ha\e been \vise enougb to a\()id tbe irra-
Ix'netits of the svstems a|ipn)ach, realism de- tionalities of man until they master eontrol of
mands that I give "ei|ual time' to the awesome machines. Marketing model-builders, however,
difficulties its utili/atitm presents There is n) bave not been able to cboose. for the distribut(tr,
better e\ idencc of this tluui the gidi between salesman, customer, and competitor are central
the elegant and sophisticated models with which to marketing. >Ve must, therefore, incorporate
tccent marketing literature abounds and the not only quantitative measures of the dimen-
actual number of situations in wbich those sions of thini;s and processes (e.g., market po-
models really work. For tbe truth of the mat- tential, metiia outlays, and shipping rates), but
tor is that we are still in the foothills of tliis ilo- also jisychological measures of comprehension,
\elopnient, despite the advances of a few lead- attitudes, motivations, intentions, needs — yes,
ers. Let us consider some of the obstacles. even psychological measures of physical be-
liaxior \Mi:it is needetl is a marriage of tbe
Time & Manpower Costs. First of all. t h e
physical and bebavioral sciences — anil we are
s\stems approacb recjtiires considerable time tc about as advanced in this blending of disciplines
implement; it took one eompany over a year as astronomy was in the Midtlle Ages.
t(t portrav its physical distribution system in i
niiitbematical model before it could even bei;:'ii Consider the advertising media fields as an
to solve its problems. RCA's Electronic Di,ta instance of the problem:
!*r()cessing Division reports models taking tbree A number of advertising agencies have evolved
to live years to build, after which holes in tbe linear programming or simulation techniques to
" Sec Automatic ami Maiiiuil Control: Vapcrs Contrib- Tustin (London, Ruttcrworth's Scfintifif Pul)lk;iti(ms,
uted to the Conferencv at Cranford, igsi, '-ctiti'd by A. 1952)
116 HBR Mciy-June i()6y
assess iiltL'maU' nictlia schcclulcs. One of the key Also, mathematical models — even the ones
sets of data iisctl covers llic probabilities of expo- that do not work well yet — ser\e to bolster
sure to all or part of the audience of a TV program, comprehension of the need for system as well
niaga/ine, or radio station. But what is exposure, as to clarify the intricacies among subsystems.
anti how do you nicasure it? What is optimuiii fre- Many models arc in this sense learning models;
quency of exposure, and how do you measure it?
How does advertising; prevail on the predispositions they teach us how to ask more insightful tjues
antl pereeptions of a potential customer? Is it bet- tions. Moreover, they pinpoint data gaps and
ter to jud^e adve.rtisinij; effects on the basis of invite a more systematized nietliod for reaching
exposure opportunity, "impact" (whatever that is), jutlgments where complete inforuiation lioes not
messages retained, message comprehension, or atti- exist. Because the computer abhors vague gen-
ttide shifts or uptrends in purchase intentions? We eralities, it forces managers to analyze their
do not have these answers yet. roles, objectives, and criteria more concretely.
Paradoxically, it demands more, not less, of its
Even assuming precise knoAvledgc of mar- human masters.
ket tlimcnsions, product performance, competi- Of course, resistance to mathematical models
ti\e standing, weights of marketing pressure by no means makes resistance to the systems
exerted by direct selling, advertising antl pro- approach necessary. There are many cases
motion, and so on, mt)st marketers do not yet where no need may ever arise to use mathemat-
know, except in isolated cases, how one force ics or computers. For the essence of the s\s-
will affect another. For instance, how does a tems approach is not its techniques, but the enu-
company "image" affect the setting in which meration of options and tiieir implications. A
its salesmen work? How tlocs a company's simple checklist may be the onl\ tool nectled. I
reputation for service affect customer buying would even argue that some hard thinking in
behavior? a quiet room may be enough. This bein*; the
Nature of Marketinii, Meu. Man is an actor case, the whole trend to more analysis and logic
on this stage in another role. A good many in management thinking, as reflected in busi-
marketing excutives. in the deepest recesses of ness periodicals, business schools, and tbe prac-
their psyches, are artists, not analysts. For tices ol" many companies, will work in favor of
them, marketing is an art form, and, in my the development of the systems approach.
opinion, they really do not want it to be any It is important to note at this juncture that
other way. Their temperament is antipathetic not al! marketers need the systems approach in
to system, order, knowledge. They enjoy Hying its formal, elaborate sense. T'he success of some
by the seat of their pants — though you will companies is rooted in other than marketing
never get them to admit it. They revel in talents; their expertise may lie in finance, tech-
chaos, abhor facts, and fear research. They nology, administration, or even in personnel —
hate to be trammeled by written plans. And as in the case of holding companies having an
they love to spend, hut are loathe to assess the almost uncanny ability to hire brilliant operat
results of their spending. ing managers and the self-control to lea\e them
Ob\iously, such men cannot be sold readily alone. In addition, a very simple marketing op-
on the value and practicality of the systems eration — for example, a company marketing
approach! It takes time, experience, and many one product through one distribution channel
facts to influence their thinking. — may have no use for the systems concept.

Surmounting the Barriers


Applying the Approach
All is not gloom, however. The barriers de-
scribed are feeing overcome in various ways. Not illogieally, there is a system for applying
^^'hile operations research techniques have not the systems approach. It may be outlined as a
yet made mueh headway in evolving total mar- sequence of steps:
keting systems and in areas where man is emo- 1. Defiuc the jiroblcm and clarify ohjectivc^.
tionally engaged, their accomplishments in solv- Care must be exercisetl not to aecept the view of
ing inventory control problems, in sales analy- the propounder of the problem lest the analyst
sis, in site selection, and in other areas have he defeated at the outset.
made many businessmen more sympathetic and 2. Test the ihfinitioii of the problem. Expand
open-minded to them. its parameters to the limit. For example, to solve
Systems Approach I 17
pli\sic;il (iistribution problems it is necessary to can be eonstructed. Aceordingly, eonsiderable
stmly the iiiarkL'tplacc (customer preferences, us- time should be invested at the outset in thinking
iige rates, market si/e, and so forlh), as well as the about the problem, its appropriate scope, oji-
production process (which plants produec which tions, and criteria of eboiee before plunging
items most eflTieiently, what the interplant nio'e- into analysis.
nients of raw materials are, and so forth). Delin-
eate the extremes of these faetors, their ehanj^e- Not only technicians, but most of us have :i
ahihty, and the limitations on management's ability way of falling in love with techniques. We hail
to work uitli them. eaeh one that comes along — dens ex inachina.
3. Haihi a mmJel Portrav all factors graph- Historically, eommereial research has wallowed
ically, indieatiii<t loj^ical and clironoloj^ical sequen- in several such passions (e.g., probability sam-
ces — the (Unamie flow of information, deeision.,, pling, motivation research, and semantic seal-
and e\ents. "Closed circuits" should be used A\here ing), and now operations research appears to
there is hiformation feedback or go, no-go and be doing the same thing. Signilieantly, eaeh
recycle signals (see EXHIBIT II). teehnique has eome, in the fullness of time, to
4. Set concrete nhjectiixs. For example, if a take its place as one, but only one, instrument
firm wants to make daily deliAerJes to every cus- in the research tool ehest. \\'e must therefore
tomer, prohihitive as the cost may be, manipuia- have a broad and dispassionate perspecti\e on
lion of the model \\\\\ viekl one set of answers. the systems approach at this juncture. We must
But if tlie desire is to optiml/e service at lowest recognize tbat the computer does not possess
cost, then another set of answers will be needec;
The more erispK and precisely targets arc stated, greater magical properties than the abacus. It,
the more speeifie the results will be. too, is a tool, albeit a brilliant one.
5. Develop altertiative solutions. It is crucial Put another way, executives must continue
to hf as open-minded as possible at this stiige. The to exercise their judgment and experience. Sys-
analyst must seek to expand the list of options tems analysis is no substitute for eommon sense.
rather than merely assess those given to him, then The eomputer must adapt itself to their styles,
reduec the list to a smaller number of practical or personalities, and modes of problem soh ing. It
relevant ones. is an aid to management, not a surrogate. IJusi-
6. Set lip criteria or te$ts of relative value. nessmen may be slow, but the good ones are
7. Quantify some or all of the faetors or "vari- bright; the eleetronie monster, by eontrast. is a
ables." The extent to which this is done depends, speedy idiot. It demands great acuity of \\\t
of course, on managements inelinations and the from its human managers lest they be deluged
"state of the art." in an avalanche of useless paper. (The story is
8. Manipiihite the model. That is. weit>h the told oi" a sales manager who had just found out
costs, eflecti\eness, prolitability, and risks of each about the impressive capabilities tif bis com-
alternative. pany's eomputer and ealled for a detailed sales
9. Interpret the resnlts, ami choose one or analysis of all produets. The report was duly
more courses of action. prepared and wheeled into his ofliee on a dolly.)
10. Verify the results. Do they make sense Systems users must be prepared to revise eon-
when viewed against the world as e\ecuti\es knr-.v tinually. There are two reasons for this. First,
it? Can their validity be tested by experimer.ts the boundaries of systems keep changing; con-
and investigations? straints are modified; competition makes fresh
ineursions; variables, being what they are, vary,
Forethought & Perspective • and new ones erop up. Second, the analytical
Successful systems do not blossom overnight. process is iteratiAe. Usually, (tne "pass" at piob-
From primitive beginnings, they evolve over r. lem formulation and searches for solutions w ill
period of time as managers and systems special- not sufTiee, and it will be necessary to "recycle"
ists learn to uniierstand each other better, ano as early hypotheses are ehallenged and new,
Itarti how to structure problems and how to more fruitful insights are stimulated by the in-
push out the frontiers of the "iini\erse" with quiry. Moreover, it is impossible to select ob
which they are dealing. Companies must be jeetives without knowledge of their effects antl
prepared to invest time, money, and energy in costs. That knowledge ean eome only from
mal<ing systems management feasible. This en- analysis, and it frequently requires review ami
tails a solid lotindation of hi.^torieal data even revision.
before the coneeptual ftame\M)rk for the system Despite all the eiTorts at quantilleation, sys-
118 Jinn May-]iiiie i()6-/
U'liis analysis is still laif^cly an art, Tt relics fre- — The growing complexity of technolog\' atul
quently on inputs based on human judgment; the accelerating pace of technological innovation.
even when the inputs are numerical, they are — The advent of tbe computer, inspiring antl
determined, at least in part, by judgment. Simi- making possible analysis of the relationships be-
larly, the outputs must pass through the sieve tween systems components.
of human interpretation. Hence, there is a — The intensification of competition, lent im-
positive correlation hetween the pay-off from petus by the extraordinary velocity of new prod-
a system and the managerial le\el involved in uct de\clopmcnt and the tendency of diversiii-
its design. The higher the level, the more re- eation to thrust everybody into everybody else's
warding the results. business.
Finally, let me observe that marketing people — The preference of buyers for purchnsini;
merit their own access to computers as well as from as tew sourees as possible, thereby avoidinj;
programmers who understand marketing. Left the problems of assembling bits and pieces them-
in the hands of accountants, the timing, con- selves and aehieving greater reliability, econi)-
my, and administrative convenicnee, (Mrs. Jones
tent, and format of output are often out of would rather buy a complete vaeuinn cleaner from
phase with marketing needs. one source than the housing from one manufac-
turt'r, the bose from another, and the attachuiL'tits
from still another, Antl industrial l)ii\Lrs ;ue not
Conclusion much different from Mrs. Jones, They would rath-
er buy an automated machine tool from one manu-
Nearly 800 years ago a monk wrote the fol- facturer than design and assemble the components
lowing about St. Godric, a merchant later themselves. Not to be overlooketl, in this connec-
turned hermit: tion, is the tremendous influence of tbe U.S. gov-
ernment in bu\ing systems for its military and aero-
"He laboured not only as a merchant but also space programs.)
as a shipman . . . to Denmark, Flanders, and Seot-
LIIKI; in wliith lands he found certain rare, and The further development and application of
therefore more precious, wares, whieh he carried the systems approach to marketing represents,
to other parts wherein he knew them to be least in my judgment, the leading edge in both mar-
familiar, and coveted by the inhabitants beyond
tiic price of gold itself, Hhert'fnre he exchanged keting theory and practice. At the moment, we
these wiircs for others coveted by men of other are still mucb closer to St. Godric than to the
lands, . . ."« millcnium, and the road will be rocky and tor
tuous. But if we arc ever to convert marketing
How St. Godric "knew" about his markets into a more scientific pursuit, this is the roati
He are not told, marketing having heen in a we must travel. The systems concept can teach
primitive state in 1170. How some of us mar- us how our husinesses really behave in the
keters today "know" is, in my opinion, some- marketing arena, therehy extending managerial
times no less mysterious than it was eight cen- leverage and control. It can help us to con-
turies ago. But we are trying to change that, front more intelligently the awesome comple\it\-
and I will hazard the not very venturesome of marketing, to deal with the ha/.ards ami
forecast that the era of "by guess and by gosh" opportunities of technological ehange, and to
marketing is drawing to a close. One evidence cope with the intensification of competition.
oi' this trend is marketers' intensified search for And in the process, the concept will help us to
knowledge that will improve their command feed the hungry maws of our expensive eom-
over their destinies. This search is being spurred puters with more satisfying fare.
on hy a numher of powerful developments. To
'^ Life of St. Godric, by Reginald, a monk of Durham,
descrihe them briefly: C. 1170.
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