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Quantitative fire risk assessment for an office building

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International Conference CIBv 2020 Civil Engineering and Building Services IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 1138 (2021) 012019 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/1138/1/012019

Quantitative fire risk assessment for an office building

R Dârmon1
1
Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania

* ruxandra.darmon@ccm.utcluj.ro

Abstract. In Romania, the risk of a fire occurring within a building is determined in a very
conservative manner, as a function of the building occupancy type and the thermal load
contained within each enclosure. The result is a qualitative expression of low, moderate or high
fire risk. On the other hand, the fire is a serious hazard which has to be taken into account
within the decision-making process by any organisation for the elaboration of their risk
assessments and the risk management strategies. Nevertheless, the one carrying out a fire risk
assessment has a various range of methods and techniques to apply, [1, 2] since the legislation
does not specifically require a certain approach. This article is an example study of the
application of Bayesian statistics to determine the probability of a fire occurring within an
office building, due to an electrical fault.

1. Introduction
Once, with the inclusion in the European Union, Romania had to adapt and implement a series of
design regulations and new standards. The Eurocodes, for the buildings and the construction products
design, are currently in use. Nonetheless, some other European regulations [1] have only been
translated and kept idle due to the lack of legal infrastructure that may prove it applicable. Although,
there are several methodologies for assessing the fire risk, there are not enforced any specific
requirements concerning the methods and technics to be used for the risk analysis, nor for the
verification and certification of a risk analysis. Moreover, the third-party peer review for the fire risk
analysis is not deem necessary or required by any of the regulations.
One commonly used approach for assessing the fire risk, in Romania, is the cumbersome method
used in Switzerland and France [2], which is highly prescriptive and it is based on several coefficients
which have been derived on certain assumptions that may not be actual nowadays and are not
generally valid.
In general, a fire risk assessment is required for complex buildings of special importance as
hospitals, hotels, shops and malls, offices, museums, industrial buildings etc. The occurrence of a fire
in such buildings will result in many life losses or considerable material losses. Most of these
buildings are unique and form very complex systems which need to be assessed in a holistic manner,
therefore a probabilistic risk assessment approach would be more appropriate instead of the implicit
fire risk analysis.
In practice, especially when it comes to businesses and organizations, there is a permanent need of
a decision-making process and the decisions have to be made, despite the lack of knowledge or data.
Bayesian statistics may offer a useful interpretation of the uncertainty and it proves to be reliable in

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International Conference CIBv 2020 Civil Engineering and Building Services IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 1138 (2021) 012019 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/1138/1/012019

such situations, when the number of identical structures is very limited and the operation and the
loading conditions are different for each kind of structure [3].
The present paper is a study case of Bayes theorem practical application in order to estimate what
is the probability that a faulty electrical appliance may be the cause of a fire in an office building in
Romania.

2. Model framework
For the decision-making process, it is important to have reliable data as a starting point of a risk
analysis. Assessing the initial probabilities, it is often a difficult task, given that statistical data are
scarce and not always available.

2.1. Statistical data

In order to review the most common causes for fires in Romania, one forthcoming way is to use the
statistics [4] available on the General Inspectorate for Emergencies Situations website. In 2018,
according to the forementioned study, a total number of 28468 fires have been reported over the whole
country. Electrical faults, short-circuits or flawed electrical appliances accounted for the initiation of
almost a third of the total number of fires, as it can be seen in the chart, below.
Percent of total number of fires

Other causes
15%
Faulty electrical
appliances 30%

Open fire 16%

Heating
appliances 7% Obstructed chimney
shafts 15%
Arson 8%
Smoke 9%

Figure 1. The fire sources distribution in 2018 [4].

From figure 1, results that 30% of the total number of fires, in Romania, occurred due to an
electrical fault. In order to carry out a probabilistic fire risk assessment, instead of assuming a
probability of 0,3 for electrical fires, one should look into the proportion of the office buildings to the
total amount of buildings, since the 30% represents an accumulative proportion of all the fires. Thus, a
useful website for statistical resources is that owned by the National Institute for Statistics [5].
Analyzing the data found in a study [6] about the building stock breakdown published by Buildings
Performance institute Europe (BPIE), it is revealed that the percentage of non-residential buildings, in
Romania one can track down the percentage of the office buildings in Romania, shown in Figure 2,
which is about 2.2% of the total.

2
International Conference CIBv 2020 Civil Engineering and Building Services IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 1138 (2021) 012019 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/1138/1/012019

Multi family houses Other residential Hospitals Other non-

31% buildings 2% residential buildings
0,3% 2%
Offices…
Hotels and restaurants
1%
Other…
Educational Sport facilities
buildings Wholesale and 1%
Single family houses 2% retail trade
55% 4%

Figure 2. The breakdown of the building stock by building type [6].

2.1.1. Conditional probabilities.

When there are two independent events, as a fire occurring into an office building, O, and an electrical
fault, E, the probability of both events happening in the same time given that the latter event has
occurred is given by the proportion of OE to all of E. Similarly, the probability of both events
happening, giving that the former event, O, has occurred is given by the proportion EO to all O, shown
graphically in Figure , where:
P(E) is the prior probability that the fire occurs due to electrical fault = the cause,
P(O) is the probability to have a fire in an office building = the event,
P(E|O) is the probability that a fire occurred due to an electrical fault, given that it started in an office
building,
P(O|E) is the probability that the fire occurred inside an office building, given that it has been an
electrical fault.

Figure 3. Conditional probabilities. Figure 4. Bayes law for two events.

Conditional probabilities are the basis for updating the probability estimates based on new
information, evidence or knowledge and experience. Bayes law, shown above, in figure 4, describes
the probability of an event based on the prior knowledge i.e. that 30% of the fires occur due to
electrical faults, P(E). If the conditional probability P(O|E) is known, or can be estimated, Bayes law
can be used to determine the reverse probability P(E|O), called the posterior probability.

2.1.2. Bayes law describes the probability of an event based on the prior knowledge of the conditions
that might be related to that event. If the conditional probability P(O|E) is known, Bayes law can be
used to determine the posterior probability P(E|O).

3
International Conference CIBv 2020 Civil Engineering and Building Services IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Materials Science and Engineering 1138 (2021) 012019 doi:10.1088/1757-899X/1138/1/012019

2.2. Risk assessment

Figure 5. Event tree for the fire occurrence

The total probability to have a fire in an office building, P(O), can be expressed as the overall
chance of the event O happening, i.e. a weighted combination of its probability given that the event E
occurs and the probability of O given that the event non-E happens. [7] Hence, P(O), calculated from
the event tree shown in figure 5, is replaced in Bayes law resulting a probability that the fire has
started from an electrical fault, given that there is an office building, P(E|O) equal to 0.155.

3. Discussions and results

Assessing the initial probabilities, it is often a difficult task, given that statistical data are scarce and
not always available. Bayes law is a powerful tool which enable updating the prior belief as the new
information is revealed. In this study, the prior probability of having a fire due to electrical faults,
based on statistical data, was initially 0.3. After taking into account the proportion of the office
buildings to the total amount of the existing buildings in Romania, the same probability has been
calculated as 0.155, decreased by a half. The more accurate are the statistical data, the better results
can be obtained. This method is very useful to apply within the whole decision making process
involved in the risk management, providing a dynamic tool for the risk assessment.

4. Conclusions
The conditional probability is useful to estimate the probability of an event (the fire starting into an
office building) given that one of its possible causes (electrical faulty appliances) has occurred and the
Bayes law is useful to find the probability that one of the possible causes of an event, given that the
event has happen.

References
[1] SR EN 31010:2010 2011 Risk management. Risk management techniques, Romanian Society
for Standards, ASRO
[2] Evaluation du Risque d’Incendie, Methode de Calcul 1984 Societe Suisse des Ingenieurs et des
Architectes
[3] Faber M H, 2012 Statistics and Probability Theory In Pursuit of Engineering Decision Support,
Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York: Springer
[4] Analiza statistică privind acţiunile de prevenire, pregătire şi răspuns în situaţii de urgenţă 2018
IGSU, https://www.igsu.ro/Resources/COJ/Rapoarte Studii/65201914407%20PM.pdf
[5] Institutul National de Statistica, Fondul de locuite 2020 Institutul National de Statistica
https://insse.ro/cms/ro/content/fondul-de-locuin%C5%A3e-3
[6] B. P. I. E. (BPIE) 2014 Renovating Romania. A Strategy for the Energy Renovation of
Romania’s Building Stoc http://bpie.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Renovating-Romania_
EN-final.pdf
[7] Kaplan M and Kaplan E 2007 Chances are...Adventures in probability London Penguin Books
Ltd p. 185