MATH 11300 Probability AUTUMN 2010

Problem Sheet 6
Questions marked * are to be handed in.

*1. A bag contains four dice labelled 1, . . . , 4. The die labelled j has j white faces and (6 − j)
black faces, j = 1, . . . , 4. A die is chosen at random from the bag and rolled. Define the
random variables X and Y as follows

X = the number labelling the chosen die


0 if the face showing on the die is black
Y =
1 if the face showing on the die is white

(a) Construct a table displaying the values of the marginal probability mass function
for X and a separate table displaying the values of the conditional probability mass
function for Y given X = x, for general x.
(b) Write down the relationship between the marginal pmf for x, the conditional pmf for
Y and the joint pmf. Hence construct a table showing the joint probability mass
function for X and Y .
(c) Write down the relationship between the joint pmf the marginal for Y and the con-
ditional for X. Hence find the conditional probability mass function for X given
Y = 1.

*2. Suppose that two cards are drawn at random from a deck of cards without replacement.
Let X be the number of aces obtained and let Y be the number of queens obtained.

(a) Obtain a table giving the joint probability mass function for X and Y . (For simplicity
leave everything as a fraction with 52 × 51 in the denominator.)
(b) Obtain the marginal distribution of X.
(c) Obtain the conditional distribution of X given Y = 0.
(d) Are X and Y independent?

*3. A husband and wife are both attempting to pass their driving test. At each attempt the
husband passes with probability p1 independently of previous tests and his wife’s success.
At each attempt the wife passes with probability p2 independently of previous attempts
and her husband’s success. Assume p1 > 0 and p2 > 0 and let qi = 1 − pi for i = 1, 2.

(a) Show that the probability that they require the same number of attempts to pass is
p1 p2
1−(1−p1 )(1−p2 )
.
(b) Find the probability the husband requires more attempts than his wife.
*4. A fair die is tossed twice. The sum of the outcomes is X and the larger value by Y .

(a) Calculate the joint pmf of X and Y .

(b) Find the marginal pmfs of X and Y .
(c) Find E(X) and E(Y ).
(d) Describe what the following R code does:
omega <- sample(1:6,2,replace=TRUE)
X <- function(omega) sum(omega)
Y <- function(omega) max(omega)
X(omega)
Y(omega)
n.trials <- 1000
omegas <- matrix(sample(1:6,2*n.trials,replace=T),n.trials,2)
X.vals <- apply(omegas,1,X)
Y.vals <- apply(omegas,1,Y)
tabulate(X.vals)/n.trials
tabulate(Y.vals)/n.trials
mean(X.vals)
mean(Y.vals)

5. A fair coin is flipped 20 times. If the total number of heads is 12, what is the mass function
of the number of heads in the first 10 flips.

6. The number of students that ask me a question after the lecture is a Poisson distribution
with parameter λ = 10. Compute the conditional probability that at most 3 male students
asked me a question, given that 10 female students asked me a question. What assumptions
have you made?