Class Test –STAT 1011Y (6 April 2018)

Instructions:
Answer ALL questions
Time allocated: 35 mins
Silent non-programmable calculators are allowed

Question 1

The random variable X follows a binomial distribution with probability mass function given by

f X ( x )= n p x ( 1−p ) , y =0,1 , …. , n ; 0< p<1

n−x
() x

A class test consists of 20 multiple-choice questions. For each question, four possible answers
are presented but only one is correct. Assume that, for any question, if a student knows the
answer he writes it down correctly, and otherwise he guesses at random. If he knows the answer
to eight questions, find
(a) the mean and variance of the number of questions he gets right, [2]

(b) the distribution of the number of questions he gets wrong, [1]

(c) the probability that he gets more than two questions right by chance. [2]

(d) The test is given separately to students Jerry and Julie and John in a tutor-group who
know the answers to four, five and seven questions respectively.

(i) Find the mean of the average number of questions they get right. [2]

(ii) Given that an unnamed class test paper (which is a priori equally likely to be from
any one of these students) has six questions right, find the respective probabilities
that this paper was written by Jerry, Julie or John. [6]

Question 2

(a) Suppose that the claim amounts for a certain policy are independent of one another. The
mean (μ) and standard deviation (σ ¿of the claim amounts are Rs 120000 and Rs 12800
respectively. What is the approximate probability that the sum of 70 such claims amounts
to more than Rs 8500000? [3]

(b)
(i) What is meant by a 95% confidence interval for a certain parameter θ? [1]
 Class Test –STAT 1011Y (6 April 2018)

(ii) The operations manager of a juice company arranged for a simple random sample
of 500 bottles of one of the major brands to be taken from the production line
during the time that a large batch of bottles was being produced. One of the
purposes of the sampling was to check whether the regulation target mean value
of 300 ml was being met satisfactorily. The mean and standard deviation of the
content of a bottle from the sample are 302 ml and 0.5 ml respectively.

1) By constructing a 95% confidence interval for the mean volume of bottles

from the production line, is the target mean value of 300 ml being met
satisfactorily?
[3]

2) For routine use within the company, the operations manager only requires to
estimate the mean volume to be within ±0.05 ml. What sample size would be
necessary to construct a 95% confidence interval that meets the requirement?

[2]

Question 3

Let X be a Poisson random variable with parameter λ. Show that the mean of X is λ [3]