Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273

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Journal of Hydrology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Agricultural water supply/demand changes under projected future

climate change in the arid region of northwestern China
Ying Guo, Yanjun Shen ⇑
Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water Resources, Hebei Key Laboratory of Agricultural Water-Saving, Center for Agricultural Resources Research, Institute of Genetics
and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 286, Huaizhong Road, Shijiazhuang 050021, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The water resources in the arid region of northwestern China, which are impacted by climate change,
Received 12 April 2016 tend to be more unstable, and the environment and ecosystems will suffer from severe water shortage.
Received in revised form 4 June 2016 In this paper, potential future climate trends were predicted based on CMIP5 simulations in this region.
Accepted 13 June 2016
The water availability and agricultural water demand under future climate change scenarios were
Available online 16 June 2016
This manuscript was handled by Corrado
estimated. Impacted by increases in temperature, the irrigation water demand will increase by 4.27–
Corradini, Editor-in-Chief, with the 6.15 billion m3 in this region over the next 60 years, compared to the demand of 32.75 billion m3 during
assistance of Christophe Darnault, Associate 1971–2000. However, the annual runoff will only increase by 4.8–8.5 billion m3, which is equivalent to or
Editor even less than the increased irrigation water demand. In fact, the increased demand for industrial,
domestic and ecological water were not considered here. Thus, the water supply/demand contradiction
Keywords: will result in more severe water shortages in the future. According to a comparison with simulated irri-
Water resources gation water demand under three adaptation strategy scenarios, we should take effective measures such
Irrigation water demand as improving the efficiency of irrigation water utilization, reducing crop planting areas and adjusting crop
Water scarcity planting structures to alleviate the impacts of future climate changes and human activities on the water
CMIP5 supply and water use in this region.
Adaptation strategy
Ó 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
Water is a precious and irreplaceable resource for human sur-
vival and plant growth, but water consumption has increased
rapidly in recent years because of economic and social develop-
ment and rapid increases in the population. A water shortage prob-
lem has been gradually revealed and has become a major resource
and environmental problem that faces humanity. A water crisis is
rapidly developing around the world. Much of the world will face
substantial water shortages (Vorosmarty et al., 2000). China is
one of the most water-scarce countries in the world. Water short-
ages have constrained economic and social development in China
(Cheng et al., 2009), especially in the country’s arid and semi-
arid regions (Chen et al., 2011; Feng et al., 2000; Ma et al., 2005;
Vorosmarty et al., 2000). Therefore, water supply and demand
and related scientific problems have caused widespread concern
among many governments, scientists and the public (Alcamo
et al., 2007; Oki and Kanae, 2006; Shen and Chen, 2010; Xia and
Zhang, 2008).
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: guoy@sjziam.ac.cn (Y. Guo), yjshen@sjziam.ac.cn (Y. Shen).
Climate change affects both the water resource system itself
and the social, economic, and environmental changes that are
caused by changes in water resource systems and human demand
for water resources (Arnell, 1999). Global warming will accelerate
the process of atmospheric circulation and the hydrological cycle,
subsequently affecting the spatial and temporal distribution of
water resources and exacerbating water shortages, especially in
arid regions (Arnell, 2004; Barnett et al., 2005; Turner and
Annamalai, 2012; Vorosmarty et al., 2000). For example, global
warming increases the annual precipitation and runoff in southern
China and decreases these processes in northern China, which may
result in increased floods in the south and aggravated droughts in
the north (Xia and Zhang, 2008).The impact of a warming climate
on water resources also manifests in the impact on water demand,
especially increases in the agricultural water demand (Rehana and
Mujumdar, 2013). Irrigation water demand depends on evapora-
tion and transpiration during crop growth periods, which are
impacted by changes in temperatures and rainfall (Wang et al.,
2012).
Northwestern China is a typical arid and semi-arid area, which
is a major inland river area in China. This area is situated inland
and has low rainfall and strong evaporation, which are controlled
by the continental climate (Shi et al., 2007). The water resources

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.06.033
0022-1694/Ó 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
258 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273
in this area mainly come from ice/snow meltwater and precipita-
tion in the high mountain regions, of which ice/snow meltwater
occupies 9–43% of the runoff volume of the inland river basins.
Clearly, the great bulk of surface runoff outside the mountain area
comes from atmospheric precipitation. Therefore, the runoff depth
in the mountain regions reaches 400–600 mm; in contrast, this
depth is only 70–20 mm or even 0 mm in plain areas (Wang and
Cheng, 2000). However, agricultural activities are distributed in
oasis plain areas, where the annual precipitation is less than
50 mm. Furthermore, agricultural irrigation occupies most of the
water resources in this region.
Water resources in the arid region of northwestern China (here-
after, ARNWC) is a valuable natural resource. Both vegetation
growth and human existence are inseparable from water. How-
ever, it is also an important environmental factor in this region
because of low and irregular rainfall, high temperatures and evap-
oration, and notable drought periods (Feng and Cheng, 1998).
Overexploiting water resources in this area has also led to a series
of ecological and environmental problems. In the Tarim River
Basin, long-term water pumping from the upstream Hotan, Yar-
kand, and Aksu Rivers for irrigation has caused the downstream
Tarim River to dry up and significantly lower the water table.
Because of this reduction in water consumption for the ecological
environment, the desert vegetation ecosystem was destroyed and
desertification intensified, and the development of local agricul-
ture was affected (Wang, 2010). In the Heihe River Basin, the
long-term exploitation of groundwater also deteriorated the eco-
logical environment. For instance, the rump lakes of the Heihe
River (the East Juyan Lake and the West Juyan Lake) have dried
up, desertification has intensified, and this area has become one
source of sandstorms.
The ARNWC is facing severe water shortages. However, this
region is one of the important food-producing and cotton-
producing regions, and agriculture mainly relies on irrigation,
which accounts for 91.8% of the total water consumption (Shen
et al., 2013). Irrational irrigation patterns and imperfect water
infrastructure resulted in the inefficient utilization of water
resources, coupled with the rapid expansion of crop acreage, cre-
ating huge agricultural water consumption. The demand for
water resources has further expanded in recent years with the
development of society and the economy and a rapid increase
in population. Water shortage situations are becoming increas-
ingly serious. Meanwhile, this region is the most sensitive area
to global climate changes. Climate change will further exacerbate
the uncertainty of the water supply and increase extreme hydro-
logical events in this region, such as floods and droughts. Under
the combined effects of climate change and human activities,
this region’s water resource system, which is based on snow
and ice meltwater, has become very fragile. Rising temperatures
caused seasonal variations in meltwater runoff, thus reducing
the stability of the water cycle system and the renewability of
water resources and increasing the frequency and intensity of
extreme climatic/hydrologic events. Climate change and extreme
hydrological events have increasingly impacted the water supply
system and increased the instability of oasis agricultural produc-
tion. Increases in temperature and the uncertainty of precipita-
tion directly affect the evaporation and transpiration of
croplands, thus increasing crop irrigation water demand
(Rehana and Mujumdar, 2013; Shen et al., 2013; Wang, 2010).
Meanwhile, climate change has affected cropping systems and
the layouts of crop varieties (Piao et al., 2010), thus impacting
the irrigation water demand. In recent years, the contradiction
between water supply and demand has become more severe,
which has affected agricultural production, restricted industrial
development and impacted on domestic water use. Water
shortages have led to more fragile ecosystems in the context
of climate change. Water shortages have become a major limit-
ing factor of socio-economic development and environmental
protection in the ARNWC.
Future climate change will present greater challenges to the
regional water supply and demand balance. Therefore, predicting
future climate trends and their impact on future water supplies
and quantitatively simulating agricultural water demand (the lar-
gest water consumption sector) under future climate change and
socio-economic development conditions is very important to grasp
future agricultural water demand changes and to improve future
water allocation and management. Meanwhile, proposing effective
adaptation strategies according to possible changes in the climate,
water supply and agricultural water demand has very important
practical significance for the sustainable use and scientific manage-
ment of water resources, sustainable socio-economic development
and the restoration of the water and ecological environment in the
ARNWC.
In this study, we simulate future climate change trends, the
water supply and the agricultural water demand under possible
climate change trends using the latest CMIP5-RCP future climate
scenarios. We propose effective adaptation strategies according
to the possible future climate change and water shortage situations
to cope with severe water shortages in the ARNWC. The results will
provide scientific support for the rational and sustainable develop-
ment and management of water resources in the ARNWC.
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Study area
The ARNWC is located in the central part of the Eurasian
continent, which covers vast inland tracts between longitude
73°E–107°E and latitude 35°N–50°N, including the entirety of
the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, the Hexi Corridor in Gansu
Province, and the western area of the Helan Mountains in Inner
Mongolia (Feng et al., 2000) (Fig. 1). This region occupies approxi-
mately 2.02 million square kilometers, accounting for more than
21% of China’s total terrestrial area. Alpine, inland basins, Gobi
Desert and widespread sandy desert landscapes are distributed in
this region. The Kunlun–Altun–Qilian Mountains are the southern
boundary of the area (Fig. 1), which blocks vapor from the Indian
Ocean, combined with the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Altai Mountain
is the northern boundary, which blocks vapor from the Arctic
Ocean. The Tianshan Mountains lie in the middle of the region
(Shi et al., 2007). This inland region is controlled by a continental
climate, with little rainfall throughout the year and strong evapo-
rative potential. The average annual temperature is 6.1 °C (1971–
2000) and the average annual precipitation is only 120 mm
(1971–2000), both with uneven spatial and temporal distributions.
The extreme minimum temperature
51.5 °C occurred in the Altai
Mountain and the extreme maximum temperature 48.9 °C
occurred in the Turpan basin. The precipitation in the oasis plain
region is generally less than 50 mm/yr, where most agricultural
activities exist. The mountains retain vapor from the air, forming
precipitation as high as 300–1000 mm/yr, supplying numerous riv-
ers and feeding the plains below (Shi and Zhang, 1995). The highest
rainfall occurs at the eastern end of the Tianshan Mountains in the
Ili River Valley, which reaches 800 mm/yr or higher. However, the
potential evaporation in this region reaches 800–3200 mm, 8–10
times the amount of precipitation (Feng et al., 2005; Shen et al.,
2013). Therefore, the ARNWC is one of the most arid regions in
the world.
The ARNWC is rich in natural resources. Abundant radiation
and heat resources make this region an ideal place for crop growth
an important high-quality and high-yield cotton production zone.
 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273 259

Fig. 1. Study area. (a) Location of the arid region of northwestern China with a background of the mean annual precipitation in China from 1971 to 2000. (b) Distributions of
mountains, oases, deserts, rivers and lakes with a rendering topography background. (c) Distributions of 28 river basins and three partitions of the region: Northern Xinjiang,
Southern Xinjiang and the Hexi Corridor.

Other crops, such as wheat, corn, oilseed and sugar beet, are also
widely cultivated in this region. The arable land is mainly dis-
tributed in oases that are embedded at the edges of deserts, rely-
ing on surface water and groundwater for irrigation (Shen et al.,
2013).
The major rivers include the Tarim River, Ili River, Heihe River,
etc. (Fig. 1). The Tarim River is the largest inland river in China and
originates from the confluence of the Aksu River, Hotan River and
Yarkand River. The Ili River is located inside Tianshan Mountain
and is affected by westerlies, so more rain falls in this basin than
260 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273
in the other areas in Northwest China. The annual runoff is 17 bil-
lion m3 in the Ili River, which is the largest in all of the river basins
in the ARNWC.
2.2. Data
In this study, we used climate simulation data of historical and
future periods with different greenhouse gas (GHG) concentra-
tions, which were provided by the internationally coordinated sets
of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
(CMIP5) (IPCC, 2014). Four future Representative Concentration
Pathway (RCP) experiments that were based on a range of projec-
tions of future population growth, technological development, and
societal responses were formulated for CMIP5. The labels for the
RCPs provided a rough estimate of the radiative forcing in the year
2100 (relative to preindustrial conditions). For example, the radia-
tive forcing in RCP8.5 increases throughout the 21st century before
reaching a level of approximately 8.5 W m
2 at the end of the cen-
tury. In addition to this ‘‘high” scenario, RCP4.5 and RCP6 are two
intermediate scenarios, and RCP2.6 is so-called low peak-and-
decay scenario, in which radiative forcing reaches a maximum near
the middle of the 21st century before decreasing to an eventual
nominal level of 2.6 W m
2 (Taylor et al., 2012b). The forcing and
concentrations of GHGs are given for the RCPs from 2005 to
2100, and are extended for climate modeling experiments to
2300 (Extended Concentration Pathways) (van Vuuren et al.,
2011).The daily data from the ‘historical run’ of each model were
from 1850 to 2005 and included realistic radiative forcing that
was based on observations. To further focus our work, we used
monthly data from the CMIP5 historical simulations between
1900 and 2005 and three RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simu-
lations between 2016 and 2075, which are available at https://
pcmdi.llnl.gov/search/cmip5/. The main variables included the
daily maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily average air
temperature, precipitation and total runoff. Only the r1i1p1-run
from each General Circulation Models (GCM) was used if it was
available for both the historical and the respective RCP experi-
ments, where r1 denotes the first run of that GCM, i1 denotes
the first set of initial conditions, and p1 denotes the first set of
physical parameters (Taylor et al., 2012a, 2012b).
Daily meteorological observations from the China Meteorologi-
cal Administration (CMA), including the maximum and minimum
temperatures, wind speed, relative humidity and sunshine dura-
tion from 74 meteorological stations, were used for model valida-
tion to verify the applicability of the Hargreaves model to calculate
the evapotranspiration in the ARNWC. The observation-based
monthly climate datasets from CRU TS3.10 and TS3.10.01 (Climate
Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, UK), which covered
1901–2009 on a 0.5° grid (Harris et al., 2014; Mitchell and Jones,
2005), were used to validate the CMIP5 simulations and calculate
accurate future climate variables. The variables included the daily
maximum and minimum air temperatures, daily average air tem-
perature and precipitation during 1901–2005.
Socio-economic statistical data were collected from the Statisti-
cal Yearbook of the provinces, municipalities and prefectures in the
study regions, including the arable land at the county level and the
various crops that were sown.
Land use data for the years 1990, 2000 and 2010 were provided
by the Data Center of Resources and Environment, Chinese Acad-
emy of Sciences. These data were combined with socio-economic
data and statistics to create the spatial distributions of crop sowing
areas in different years.
Historical river discharge and water resource data from the Xin-
jiang Water Resources Bulletin and Gansu Water Resources Bul-
letin were selected to analyze the water resource supply and
demand situations of each basin in the past.
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Model selection
Climate simulations from a new generation of state-of-the-art
global climate models (GCM) have become available for analysis
within the CMIP5 (Taylor et al., 2012b). Compared to the previous
model generation (CMIP3) (Meehl et al., 2007), CMIP5 includes
more comprehensive global climate models (i.e., Earth system
models) with generally higher spatial resolution. The main
improvements in CMIP5 include (1) the addition of interactive
ocean and land carbon cycles of varying degrees of complexity,
(2) more comprehensive modeling of the indirect effect of aerosols,
(3) the use of time-evolving volcanic and solar forcing in most
models (Taylor et al., 2012b), and (4) higher horizontal and vertical
resolution (Sillmann et al., 2013). However, uncertainties in esti-
mated climate change results from GCMs have often been a limit-
ing factor, in particular on local scales (Knutti and Sedlacek, 2013),
because of the currently limited understanding of climate systems.
Therefore, large differences in the accuracies of different GCM
models still exist at the regional scale. Thus, evaluating model
accuracies is necessary to select appropriate models for climate
change estimations.
In this study, we first evaluated the accuracies of climate simula-
tions of 7 models (BCC-CSM1.1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1
(CAM5), MIROC5 and MRI-CGCM3), which have available data dur-
ing 1901–2005 and 2016–2075, by comparing the root mean square
deviation (RMSD) and correlation coefficients (R) between the
CMIP5 simulated and CRU observed annual temperature and precip-
itation of different models during 1901–2005 (Fig. 2). Fig. 2a shows
that the correlation coefficients between the simulated annual pre-
cipitation of all the models and the CRU observations were below
0.2, except for simulations by the CESM1 (CAM5) model, which were
significantly positively correlated with the observations. Even
worse, the simulated annual precipitations from the MRI-CGCM3
model were negatively correlated with the CRU observations. The
RMSD between the CRU observed and simulated precipitation of
the 5 models (CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1 (CAM5), MIROC5 and
MRI-CGCM3) were lower than 75 mm. However, the RMSD between
the observations and simulations from the BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-
ESM models were higher than 130 mm, which was higher than the
annual precipitation in this arid region. Meanwhile, the RMSD and
correlation coefficients between the CMIP5 simulated and CRU
observed mean daily average air temperature (Tave), mean daily
maximum air temperature (Tmax) and mean daily minimum air tem-
perature (Tmin) of different models during 1901–2005 were com-
pared (Fig. 2(b–d)). Tave and Tmin simulations of all 7 models were
significantly positively correlated with the CRU observations, and
the RMSDs between them were less than 4 °C (Fig. 2b and d). The
Tmax simulations of the BCC-CSM1.1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2 and
CCSM4 models were significantly positively correlated with the
observations, whereas those of the other models were insignifi-
cantly positively correlated with the observations. However, the
RMSDs between the simulations of BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM mod-
els and the observations were higher than 4 °C (Fig. 2c). Because of
the larger RMSDs between the observations and simulations of the
BCC-CSM1.1 and BNU-ESM models for precipitation and Tmax and
the negative correlation between MRI-CGCM3 simulations and pre-
cipitation observations, these 3 models were unavailable for this
study area. Therefore, the four models CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1
(CAM5) and MIROC5 were selected for this study.
2.3.2. Calculation of future climate factors and runoff
Although we have selected 4 models with higher accuracy,
uncertainties still exist in simulations of GCM models. In this
study, we used the pseudo-global warming approach to calculate
the future climate factors to reduce the uncertainties in GCM
 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273
Fig. 2. Root mean square differences (RMSD, x axis) and correlation coefficients (R, y axis) between the CMIP5 model simulations and CRU observations of (a) annual
precipitation (P), (b) mean daily average air temperature (Tave), (c) mean daily maximum air temperature (Tmax) and (d) mean daily minimum air temperature (Tmin) from
1901 to 2005 (‘‘⁄” denotes significant correlation, significance level = 5%).
simulations (Hara et al., 2008; Kawase et al., 2009; Schar et al.,
1996). The procedure consisted of adding a mean climate perturba-
tion to the current observation based on the expected changes that
are predicted by global climate model (GCM) runs (Rasmussen
et al., 2011). In this study, the CRU gridded observations with
climate reference periods were used as a reliable climate back-
ground field. The future climate change signal was estimated by
future climate projections from CMIP5. This method can effectively
reduce the systematic errors from GCM models.
The future climate estimations that were used in this study
included monthly daily maximum and minimum air temperatures,
daily average air temperature and precipitation from CMIP5 in the
early 21st century (2016–2045) and medium term (2046–2075).
The climate mean state of the climate reference period was
adapted with the average monthly simulations of historical climate
model experiments from CMIP5 during 1971–2000. Differences in
the climate simulations between future periods and the historical
period from CMIP5 were used to express future climate change sig-
nals, i.e., perturbation terms. The monthly CRU observations during
1971–2000 were substituted for simultaneous simulations from
CMIP5, which were coupled with the perturbation terms to pro-
duce a future monthly climate dataset.
The future runoff for each basin was calculated using the same
future climate calculation method. The perturbation terms were
calculated as the differences in runoff simulations between future
periods and the historical period from CMIP5. The predicted future
runoff was calculated by summing the perturbation term and run-
off observation. All the CMIP5 climate and runoff simulations were
downscaled to 0.5°  0.5° resolution to match the CRU data.
2.3.3. Calculation of future agricultural water demand
Because of the effects of rainfall contribution and irrigation effi-
ciency, the irrigation water demand (IWD) is not equal to crop
potential evapotranspiration, which is calculated by
261
IWD ¼ S  CWD=Ic ð1Þ
where CWD is the crop water demand of a certain crop; Ic is the irri-
gation efficiency, which considers the loss from water diversion to
fields from river channels; and S is the acreage of the crop. The
CWD can vary widely and is affected by the crop variety, soil prop-
erties, aquifer conditions, weather conditions, and other factors:
CWD ¼ ETc
Pe ð2Þ
ETc ¼ K c  ET0 ð3Þ
where ETc is the crop evapotranspiration under standard conditions
(Allen et al., 1998); ET0 is the reference evapotranspiration; Kc is the
crop coefficient; and Pe is the effective rainfall, which indicates the
rainfall that is transferred to the soil moisture for crop growth. Pe
and Kc are calculated according to Shen et al. (2013).
Due to only temperature and precipitation data are available for
future climate scenarios, ET0 is calculated using the Hargreaves
model (Hargreaves and Allen, 2003; Hargreaves and Samani,
1985):
ET0 ¼ 0:0023Ra ðT ave þ 17:8Þ  ðT max
T min Þ0:5 ð4Þ

2
1
where Ra is extraterrestrial radiation (MJ m d ); Tmax and Tmin
are daily maximum and minimum air temperatures (°C), respec-
tively; Tave is the average Tmax and Tmin (°C).
The wind speed, atmospheric pressure and precipitation may
affect the accuracy of reference evapotranspiration. However, ref-
erence evapotranspiration is calculated only using temperature
data in the Hargreaves model. It may reduce the estimation accu-
racy of reference evapotranspiration (Allen, 1995; Droogers and
Allen, 2002). However, Penman-Monteith model is a predomi-
nately physically based approach, which can take into account
the impacts of a variety of meteorological factors on ET0. This
method can be considered as a sort of standard and is widely
applied in many countries and regions and has been tested using
262 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273

a variety of lysimeters (Droogers and Allen, 2002; Jensen et al.,
1990). Thus, in this study, the estimated ET0 by Hargreaves model
was validated using the estimations from Penman-Monteith equa-
tion (Allen et al., 1998). The average daily ET0 of 74 meteorological
stations in the ARNWC during 1971–2000 estimated by Hargreaves
model and Penman-Monteith equation was compared, with a cor-
relation coefficient of 0.76 (which indicates a significant correla-
tion at significant level of 5%) and RMSD of 0.38 mm/d (Fig. 3). It
indicates that the Hargreaves model is available in ET0 estimation
in the ARNWC.
2.3.4. Water scarcity index
Water scarcity index (WSI) is defined as the ratio of water use to
water availability (Hanasaki et al., 2013; Pedro-Monzonís et al.,
2015; Raskin et al., 1997; Sun et al., 2008). Typically water avail-
ability can be substituted with mean annual river discharge
(Hanasaki et al., 2013). When the water use to water availability
ratio is above the respective thresholds of 0.2 and 0.4, the basin
is recognized as moderate and severe water stress. In detail, when
WSI < 0.1, it indicates no water shortage; when 0.1 < WSI < 0.2, it
indicates mild water shortage; when 0.2 < WSI < 0.4, it indicates
moderate water shortage; when 0.4 < WSI < 1, it indicates severe
water shortage; when WSI > 1, it indicates extreme water shortage.
In this study, for future water stress evaluation, WSI can be defined
as the ratio of annual water demand to runoff. Due to agricultural
water use accounted for more than 90% of the total water con-
sumption in the ARNWC, the agricultural water use to runoff ratio
can be used to evaluate the water stress situation under future
scenarios (Guo et al., 2015).
Fig. 3. The comparison of average daily ET0 of 74 meteorological stations in the
ARNWC during 1971–2000 estimated by Hargreaves model (x axis) and Penman-
Monteith equation (y axis).
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Climate changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios
In order to better grasp the future climate change characteris-
tics, which will directly impact on future water supply and agricul-
tural water demand, we compared the possible climate change
under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the early term
(2016–2045) and medium term (2046–2075) of the 21 century rel-
ative to the historical period of 1971–2000 using simulations from
4 selected models (Table 1). It is found that air temperature will
increase in two terms of the 21st century in the whole ARNWC.
The average annual temperature in the ARNWC is 6.1 °C during
1971–2000, which will increase to 7.9 °C, 8.0 °C and 8.3 °C during
2016–2045 and 8.4 °C, 9.1 °C and 10.3 °C during 2046–2075 under
RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Warming trend
is more significant under the high emission scenario than under
the low emission scenarios. Comparing to the temperature in the
historical period, the predicted temperature under the highest
emission scenario in the middle term of the 21st century in the
ARNWC will increase 67%.
From month scale, the temperature shows an increasing trend
in all seasons, which is more significant in the summer and winter
and the most significant in July. Under the highest emission sce-
nario RCP8.5, temperature will increase by more than 5 °C
(Fig. 4). Spatially, the annual temperature shows a warming trend
in allover the ARNWC, which is the more significant in the north-
ern and eastern Xinjiang. In 2046–2075 under different emission
scenarios, temperature will increase by 1–2 °C in Southern Xin-
jiang and by 3 °C in Northern Xinjiang, and especially by more than
5 °C in some areas of the Tianshan Mountains in Northern Xinjiang
(Fig. 5).
Precipitation is one of the main water supplies to surface water
resources, and greatly affects the variation in water resources in
the ARNWC. In a similar trend of temperature, annual precipitation
will also increase in the two terms of the 21st century in the whole
region. The increase trend is more significant under the high emis-
sion scenario than under the low emission scenarios and which is
more significant during the period of 2046–2075 than that during
2016–2045. The average annual precipitation in the ARNWC is
120 mm during 1971–2000, which will increase to 141 mm,
145 mm and 147 mm during 2016–2045 and 150 mm, 154 mm
and 165 mm during 2046–2075 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5
scenarios, respectively (Table 2).
From the seasonal variations, the precipitation shows an
increasing trend in all seasons, which is more significant from Jan-
uary to August (Fig. 6). Spatially, monthly precipitation increases
more significantly in the mountains, especially in the Tianshan
Mountains, the upstream of the Tarim River and the Kunlun
Mountains (Fig. 7).

Table 1
Comparisons of annual air temperature (°C) between the future simulations based on CMIP5 in the early term (2016–2045) and medium term (2046–2075) of the 21st century
under 3 scenarios and the historical observation from CRU data in 1971–2000.

CRU CCSM4 CESM1-CAM5 MIROC5 CanESM2 Model mean

Annual T H F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 6.1 7.5 7.9 8.0 8.5 7.9 8.4 8.3 8.9 7.9 8.4
RCP4.5 6.1 7.8 8.7 8.0 9.0 7.9 9.0 8.4 9.6 8.0 9.1
RCP8.5 6.1 8.1 9.8 8.2 10.4 8.2 10.1 8.7 10.9 8.3 10.3
Change T F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.8 1.8 2.3
RCP4.5 1.7 2.6 1.9 2.9 1.8 2.9 2.3 3.5 1.9 3.0
RCP8.5 2.0 2.7 2.1 4.3 2.1 4.0 2.6 4.8 2.2 4.0

H: 1971–2000, F1: 2016–2045, F2: 2046–2075.

 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273 263

Fig. 4. Comparisons of average monthly air temperature (°C) between the future simulations from 4 models in the early term (2016–2045) and medium term (2046–2075) of
the 21st century under 3 scenarios and the historical observation from CRU data in 1971–2000.

3.2. Spatial and temporal variations of agricultural water demand
affected by future climate change
Under future climate scenarios, temperature rising will increase
the ability of the crop evapotranspiration; precipitation increasing
will affect the crop irrigation water demand, both of that will have
a coupled effect on the supply and demand of water resources.
Therefore, it is necessary to study on the potential trend of agricul-
tural water demand under future climate scenarios to provide sup-
port for the rational use of agriculture water resources under
future climate change conditions.
In this study, monthly climate variables under future scenarios
and historical period were simulated based on CMIP5 multiple-
model simulations and CRU observation data. Reference evapo-
transpiration during the past period (1971–2000) and in the future
periods (2016–2045 and 2046–2075) under 3 emission scenarios
in the ARNWC was calculated using the Hargreaves model
(Hanasaki et al., 2013; Hargreaves and Samani, 1985). Assuming
that the irrigation water use efficiency and crop area are the same
as that during the historical period 1971–2000 (irrigation water
use efficiency is 0.42, area of the five major crops covers an area
of 2.996 million hectares), the irrigation water demand under
future scenarios were simulated using Eqs. (1)–(3) by integrating
land use data, crop distribution data and crop coefficient data, etc.
According to the simulations from 4 models, it is found that the
changes of future IWD differ from different models. However, the
trends from different models are similar. An ensemble prediction
of multi-model can reduce the simulation errors from different
models. Thus, the model means are used to evaluate the IWD
changes under the impacts of future climate changes. In the period
2016–2045, annual IWD of five major crops in the ARNWC can reach
37.24, 37.02 and 37.27 billion m3 under three emission scenarios of
264 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273

Fig. 5. Distributions of annual temperature change from 1971–2000 to the periods of 2016–2045 and 2046–2075 under 3 scenarios, respectively.

Table 2
Comparisons of annual precipitation (mm) between the future simulations based on CMIP5 in the early term (2016–2045) and medium term (2046–2075) of the 21st century
under 3 scenarios and the historical observation from CRU data in 1971–2000.

CRU CCSM4 CESM1-CAM5 MIROC5 CanESM2 Model mean

Annual P H F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 120 130 137 131 141 155 163 147 162 141 150
RCP4.5 120 131 138 141 154 158 159 151 165 145 154
RCP8.5 120 128 144 135 165 164 169 159 182 147 165
Change P F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 10 17 11 21 35 43 27 42 21 31
RCP4.5 11 18 21 34 38 39 32 45 26 34
RCP8.5 8 24 15 45 44 49 39 62 27 45

H: 1971–2000, F1: 2016–2045, F2: 2046–2075.

RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The annual IWD increases
by 4.27–4.52 billion m3 compared with 32.75 billion m3 in the his-
torical period 1971–2000. In the period 2046–2075, the increase
in IWD can reach 4.4–6.15 billion m3 (Table 3). It indicates the
IWD increases more significantly under high emission scenario than
that under low emission scenario, and more significantly in the mid-
dle term than that in the early term of the 21st century.
From the seasonal distribution, IWD increases throughout the
growing season. Due to significant temperature increase in sum-
mer, the crop evapotranspiration ability will be enhanced in sum-
mer. Therefore, IWD increases more significantly in summer (June
to September). The maximum monthly increase value occurs in
July under all the scenarios and in all the study periods. In the
period of 2046–2075, the IWD under RCP8.5 scenario in a single
month July will increase about 2 billion m3 compared with that
in the same month during 1971–2000 (Fig. 8).
From the perspective of spatial variation, the IWD under 3 sce-
narios mainly shows increasing trends in the ARNWC, however, it
shows decreasing trends in the edge region of the oasis (Fig. 9). The
annual IWD of typical basins under only influence of future climate
change were simulated (Table 4). The largest increase value in
annual IWD occurs in the Yarkand River Basin, more than 0.9
billion m3. The increased annual IWD is more than 0.6 billion m3
in the northern piedmont of Tianshan Mountains, and it is between
0.3 billion m3 and 0.5 billion m3 in the Kaidu-Kongque River Basin,
Aksu River Basin, Hotan River Basin, Ili River Basin (Table 4).
 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273 265

Fig. 6. Comparisons of average monthly precipitation (mm) between the future simulations from 4 models in the early term (2016–2045) and medium term (2046–2075) of
the 21st century under 3 scenarios and the historical observation from CRU data in 1971–2000.

3.3. Water resource availability and potential trends under future
scenarios
Surface runoff and groundwater are impacted by future climate
change so that water resources supply is also impacted. Directly,
rainfall impacts runoff; indirectly, solar incident radiation, air tem-
perature and wind speed etc. impact evapotranspiration so as to
impact runoff yield. In water-limited regions, attributing the
changes in runoff to the climate change and anthropogenic factors
is a topic that is important for future water resources planning and
management decisions to ensure sustainable water resources uti-
lization (Lei et al., 2014). The ARNWC is one of the regions facing
most severe water shortage in the world. Therefore, study on water
resource availability and potential trends under future climate
scenarios is important for understand the water resources supply
situation under future climate change impacts.
CMIP5 models coupled GCM and land surface model so that it is
available for runoff simulating. However, there are still errors of
the runoff estimations at regional scale from CMIP5, especially in
the ARNWC. Therefore, simulated future runoff has been corrected
using observation data. The correction method has been described
in the Section 2.3.2. The annual runoff predictions under three
emission scenarios from 4 models in the future periods of 2016–
2045 and 2046–2075 and the annual runoff changes compared
with that in the historical period of 1971–2000 in the ARNWC were
shown in Table 5. According to the results, annual runoff from 4
models all shows increasing trends in both two future periods
compared with that in the period 1971–2000. From the ensemble
266 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273

Fig. 7. Distributions of annual precipitation change from 1971–2000 to the periods of 2016–2045 and 2046–2075 under 3 scenarios, respectively.

Table 3
Simulated annual irrigation water demand (billion m3) under future climate scenarios from 4 models during historical and future period.

CCSM4 CESM1-CAM5 MIROC5 CanESM2 Model mean

Annual IWD H F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 32.75 37.61 37.23 37.50 37.36 36.63 36.77 37.20 37.26 37.24 37.15
RCP4.5 32.75 37.93 38.60 36.89 37.33 36.31 38.02 36.95 38.03 37.02 38.00
RCP8.5 32.75 38.34 39.83 37.63 38.13 36.39 39.17 36.71 38.46 37.27 38.90
Change IWD F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 4.86 4.48 4.75 4.61 3.87 4.02 4.45 4.51 4.48 4.40
RCP4.5 5.18 5.84 4.14 4.58 3.56 5.27 4.20 5.28 4.27 5.24
RCP8.5 5.59 7.08 4.88 5.38 3.64 6.41 3.96 5.70 4.52 6.15

H: 1971–2000, F1: 2016–2045, F2: 2046–2075.

predictions by model means, it is found that the increase in runoff
relative to that in the historical period under RCP4.5 scenario is less
than that under RCP2.6 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario. In the period
2016–2045, the increase in runoff is 6.1, 4.8 and 7.5 billion m3
under RCP2.6 scenario, RCP4.5 scenario and RCP8.5 scenario com-
pared with 87.1 billion m3 in the period of 1971–2000, respec-
tively. In the period 2046–2075, the increase in runoff reaches
8.5, 5.4 and 5.5 billion m3, respectively.
Spatially, the increase in runoff in Southern Xinjiang is more
than that in Northern Xinjiang and Hexi Area. Under RCP2.6 sce-
nario, in the period of 2016–2045, the increase in runoff is 4.2 bil-
lion m3, 0.5 billion m3 and 1 billion m3 respectively in Southern
Xinjiang, Northern Xinjiang and Hexi Area compared with that in
the historical period, increasing by 11%, 1% and 13% respectively.
Under RCP8.5 scenario, in the period of 2016–2045, the increase
in runoff is 2.5 billion m3, 1.5 billion m3 and 1.1 billion m3 respec-
tively in Southern Xinjiang, Northern Xinjiang and Hexi Area com-
pared with that in the historical period, increasing by 7%, 4% and
15% respectively. Under 3 emission scenarios in the future period,
the basins where runoff increasing percentage is over 10% include
the Aibi Lake water system, EMin River Basin in Northern Xinjiang,
Yarkand River Basin, Hotan River Basin, Kashgar River Basin, Qiemo
River Basin, Keriya River Basin in Southern Xinjiang and Heihe
River Basin, Shule River Basin in Hexi area. The basins where runoff
 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273 267

Fig. 8. Changes of future average monthly irrigation water demand (billion m3) from 4 models in the early term (2016–2045) and medium term (2046–2075) of the 21st
century under 3 scenarios relative to that in the historical period from 1971 to 2000 in the ARNWC.

shows a decreasing trend include the Irtysh River Basin and
Shiyang River Basin. The runoff change values of these basins
where the runoff will obviously change under future climate sce-
narios are shown in Table 6.
3.4. Trend of water stress situation and adaptation strategies
Water overuse occurred in many basins in the ARNWC. High
overuse tends to occur in regions heavily dependent on irrigated
agriculture, which is damaging the environment in the ARNWC.
Water scarcity occurs when the amount of water withdrawn from
lakes, rivers or groundwater is so great that water supplies are no
longer adequate to satisfy all human or ecosystem requirements,
resulting in increased competition between water users and other
demands. The severe contradiction between water supply and
demand has caused a series of social and economic problems and
led to more fragile ecosystems.
Future climate change will further aggravate the contradiction
between water supply and demand. Under future climate scenar-
ios, water resource amount shows an increasing trend, however,
the increasing value is tiny, such as the increasing water resource
in the period 2016–2045 under RCP2.6 was only 6.1 billion m3
compared with that in the period 1971–2000, which is far less than
the increase of the agricultural water demand. Impacted by the
future climate change and socio-economic development, the
increase of annual agricultural water demand is 19.71, 19.43 and
19.77 billion m3 in the period of 2016–2045 compared with that
in the period of 1971–2000 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,
respectively; the increase of annual agricultural water demand in
the period of 2046–2075 is 19.58, 20.78 and 22.09 billion m3,
respectively. The increase of agricultural water demand is largest
268 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273

Fig. 9. Distributions of annual IWD change from 1971–2000 to the periods of 2016–2045 and 2046–2075 under 3 scenarios, respectively.

Table 4
Comparisons of irrigation water demand (billion m3) between the future simulations based on CMIP5 in the early term (2016–2045) and medium term (2046–2075) of the 21st
century under 3 scenarios and the historical simulations (irrigation water use efficiency = 0.42 and crop distribution with that in 2000 both in the historical and future period).

Period Scenario Kaidu-Kongque RB Aksu RB Hotan RB Yarkand RB Northern piedmont of Tianshan Mountains Ili RB Heihe RB Shiyang RB
H Past 1.490 2.503 1.497 3.755 4.910 2.027 1.674 1.469
F1 RCP2.6 1.812 3.064 1.755 4.647 5.549 2.439 1.597 1.594
F1 RCP4.5 1.814 3.037 1.758 4.615 5.539 2.402 1.557 1.564
F1 RCP8.5 1.821 3.052 1.759 4.641 5.577 2.419 1.575 1.589
F2 RCP2.6 1.812 3.033 1.761 4.651 5.545 2.372 1.606 1.603
F2 RCP4.5 1.852 3.114 1.796 4.728 5.677 2.462 1.610 1.629
F2 RCP8.5 1.880 3.196 1.830 4.831 5.841 2.559 1.631 1.627

H: 1971–2000, F1: 2016–2045, F2: 2046–2075.

in Southern Xinjiang, followed by Northern Xinjiang and Hexi area
(Table 7).
Agricultural water demand under future climate scenarios
shows significant increase trends in the northern piedmont of
Tianshan Mountains, Ili River Basin, Kaidu-Kongque River Basin,
Aksu River Basin and Yarkand River Basin. In these basins, the
increase amount is more than 50% of the IWD in the historical per-
iod (Table 8). Compared with that in the historical period, runoff
will increase in most river basins; however, the increase amount
is far less than the increased water demand (Table 6). Overall,
impacted by the future climate change and human activities, water
demand surges, the increase of water resource is tiny, even
decreases in some basins such as Shiyang River Basin and Irtysh
River Basin, thus water shortage will be more severe in future in
the ARNWC.
In order to analyze the water shortage situation in detail, we
calculated Water Scarcity index (WSI) for each basin. From the dis-
tribution of WSI in the whole region (Fig. 10), WSI in most basins
is over 0.4, which indicates severe water shortage in these basins
under future climate scenarios. The basins facing the most severe
water shortage include the Hami Basin, Northern piedmont of
Tianshan Mountains, Aksu River Basin and Shiyang River Basin,
where WSI values are over 1. It indicates that water resources
have been unable to meet the water demand in these basins,
which will result to not only the water crisis in future, but also
the problem of ecological deterioration in this region. With the
 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273 269

Table 5
Simulated annual runoff (billion m3) under 3 future climate scenarios from 4 models and annual changed runoff (billion m3) compared with the simulated runoff in the historical
period of 1971–2000.

CCSM4 MIROC5 CanESM2 Model mean

Annual R H F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 87.09 89.46 91.60 94.80 93.07 95.39 101.98 93.22 95.55
RCP4.5 87.09 87.29 87.30 94.04 89.14 94.28 101.03 91.87 92.49
RCP8.5 87.09 88.24 87.46 98.73 89.58 96.87 100.76 94.61 92.60
Change R F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 2.37 4.51 7.71 5.98 8.30 14.89 6.13 8.46
RCP4.5 0.2 0.21 6.95 2.05 7.19 13.94 4.78 5.40
RCP8.5 1.15 0.37 11.64 2.49 9.78 13.67 7.52 5.51

H: 1971–2000, F1: 2016–2045, F2: 2046–2075.

Table 6
Runoff predictions (billion m3) under future climate scenarios and the changes compared to that in the period of 1971–2000.

Period Scenario Aibi Lake water Qiemo EMin Hotan Heihe Kashgar Keriya Shule Yarkand Shiyang Irtysh
system RB RB RB RB RB RB RB RB RB RB
H Past 4.58 2.28 2.01 5.37 3.72 5.19 2.61 1.37 7.52 1.78 9.44
F1 RCP2.6 5.10 2.90 22.00 6.18 4.12 5.89 2.95 1.62 8.39 1.76 8.37
F1 RCP4.5 4.99 3.05 22.30 6.24 4.07 5.34 3.09 1.65 8.35 1.54 8.85
F1 RCP8.5 5.10 3.25 22.35 6.32 4.18 5.78 3.10 1.60 8.68 1.76 8.88
F2 RCP2.6 5.12 2.93 22.78 6.12 4.07 5.98 2.88 1.64 8.62 1.39 9.64
F2 RCP4.5 5.07 2.46 22.12 5.62 4.07 5.59 2.77 1.59 7.61 1.3 8.90
F2 RCP8.5 5.05 2.84 21.72 6.04 4.16 4.66 2.91 1.59 8.18 1.67 9.16
Runoff change
F1 RCP2.6 0.52 0.61 19.99 0.81 0.40 0.70 0.34 0.25 0.87
0.01
1.07
F1 RCP4.5 0.41 0.77 20.30 0.87 0.35 0.15 0.48 0.28 0.83
0.24
0.59
F1 RCP8.5 0.52 0.96 20.35 0.95 0.46 0.59 0.49 0.24 1.16
0.02
0.56
F2 RCP2.6 0.54 0.65 20.78 0.75 0.35 0.79 0.27 0.27 1.10
0.38 0.20
F2 RCP4.5 0.49 0.17 20.11 0.25 0.35 0.40 0.16 0.22 0.08
0.48
0.54
F2 RCP8.5 0.47 0.55 19.71 0.66 0.44
0.53 0.30 0.22 0.66
0.11
0.28

H: 1971–2000, F1: 2016–2045, F2: 2046–2075.

Table 7
Simulated annual irrigation water demand (billion m3) under future climate scenarios and annual changed amount (billion m3) in Northern Xinjiang, Southern Xinjiang and Hexi
area compared with that in the historical period.

Northern Xinjiang Southern Xinjiang Hexi area Total

Annual IWD H F1 F2 H F1 F2 H F1 F2 H F1 F2
RCP2.6 13.39 22.49 22.39 15.46 25.64 25.58 3.91 4.33 4.36 32.75 52.46 52.33
RCP4.5 13.39 22.40 22.99 15.46 25.53 26.15 3.91 4.25 4.40 32.75 52.18 53.54
RCP8.5 13.39 22.61 23.76 15.46 25.61 26.65 3.91 4.30 4.44 32.75 52.53 54.84
Change IWD F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2 F1 F2
RCP2.6 9.10 9.00 10.18 10.13 0.42 0.45 19.71 19.58
RCP4.5 9.01 9.61 10.07 10.69 0.34 0.49 19.43 20.78
RCP8.5 9.22 10.37 10.16 11.19 0.39 0.53 19.77 22.09

H: 1971–2000, F1: 2016–2045, F2: 2046–2075.

Table 8
Simulations of irrigation water demand (billion m3) under future climate scenarios and the changes compared to that in the period of 1971–2000 (irrigation water use
efficiency = 0.42 and crop distribution with that in 2000 in the historical period and with that in 2010 in the future periods).

Period Scenario Kaidu-Kongque Aksu Hotan Yarkand Northern piedmont of Tianshan Ili RB Heihe Shiyang IrtySh
RB RB RB RB Mountains RB RB RB
H Past 1.490 2.503 1.497 3.755 4.910 2.027 1.674 1.469 0.388
F1 RCP2.6 3.269 4.941 1.744 5.771 8.497 3.785 1.886 1.663 0.693
F1 RCP4.5 3.272 4.899 1.748 5.733 8.481 3.728 1.844 1.633 0.693
F1 RCP8.5 3.288 4.928 1.747 5.764 8.535 3.752 1.862 1.658 0.703
F2 RCP2.6 3.271 4.899 1.750 5.775 8.489 3.681 1.898 1.674 0.687
F2 RCP4.5 3.343 5.022 1.785 5.871 8.694 3.824 1.904 1.696 0.720
F2 RCP8.5 3.397 5.156 1.818 5.999 8.941 3.965 1.930 1.700 0.745
Change IWD
F1 RCP2.6 1.779 2.438 0.247 2.016 3.587 1.758 0.212 0.194 0.305
F1 RCP4.5 1.782 2.396 0.251 1.978 3.571 1.701 0.170 0.164 0.305
F1 RCP8.5 1.798 2.425 0.250 2.009 3.625 1.725 0.188 0.189 0.316
F2 RCP2.6 1.781 2.396 0.253 2.020 3.579 1.654 0.224 0.205 0.299
F2 RCP4.5 1.853 2.519 0.288 2.116 3.784 1.797 0.230 0.227 0.333
F2 RCP8.5 1.907 2.653 0.321 2.244 4.031 1.938 0.256 0.231 0.357

H: 1971–2000, F1: 2016–2045, F2: 2046–2075.

270 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273

Fig. 10. Distributions of WSI of the basins in the period of (a) 1971–2000, (b) 2016–2045 (under RCP2.6) and (c) 2046–2075 (under RCP8.5) in the ARNWC.

increase of greenhouse gas emissions and the influence of temper-
ature rise, water shortage situation will be severe in some basins
such as the Northern piedmont of Tianshan Mountains, Aibi lake
water system, Weigan River Basin, Aksu River Basin and Shiyang
River Basin, in which basins, water shortage will significantly
increase in the period of 2016–2045, compared with that in the
historical period (Table 9).
For the intensified conflicts between future water supply and
demand in the ARNWC, we simulated IWD under different adapta-
tion strategy scenarios including reducing planting area, improving
irrigation water use efficiency and adjusting crop types (Table 9).
Based on the simulations, the future IWD affected by different
adaptation strategies was compared with the historical IWD to
put forward effective strategies to adapt water crisis in future.
Under future scenarios, in the case that irrigation water use effi-
ciency maintains 0.42 and crop types maintain as that in 2010,
which are same as that in the reference from Shen et al. (2013),
if reducing the planting area to 2.7  106 hm2 as that in 1990,
the IWD will reduce 21.3–22.4 billion m3 during the period of
2016–2075, compared with that when the planting area is
4.4  106 hm2 as that in 2010; and the IWD will reduce 0.3–1.9 bil-
lion m3 compared with that in the historical period of 1971–2000
(Table 9 and Fig. 11a). Based on the measure of reducing crop
planting area, the crop types are adjusted as planting spring maize
 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273 271

Table 9
Simulated future IWD under different combinations of adaption strategies.

AcXXXX: Crop area as that in the year XXXX; Ic: Coefficient of irrigation water use efficiency; Cct: Change crop types to plant spring maize in the whole Northern Xinjiang and
Hexi area and plant cotton in the whole Southern Xinjiang.

Fig. 11. (a) Irrigation water demand change from the historical period of 1971–2000 to future period (2016–2045 and 2046–2075) under the adaption strategies (irrigation
water efficiency = 0.42; crop area is as that in 1990 and 2010; crop planting types adjusting form the types as that in 2010 to spring maize in Northern Xinjiang and Hexi area
and cotton in Southern Xinjiang), (b) Irrigation water change from the historical period of 1971–2000 to future period (2016–2045 and 2046–2075) under the adaption
strategies (crop area is as that in 2010; irrigation water efficiency = 0.42, 0.55; crop planting types adjusting form the types as that in 2010 to spring maize in Northern
Xinjiang and Hexi area and cotton in Southern Xinjiang).

in the whole Northern Xinjiang and Hexi area and planting cotton
in the whole Southern Xinjiang to simulate IWD. It is found that
adjusting crop planting types as this way can save water about
1.3 billion m3 when the crop planting area is as that in 2010, but
the water saving effect is not obvious when the crop planting area
is as that in 1990 (Table 9 and Fig. 11a). In the case that crop plant-
ing types and crop area are as that in 2010, IWD was simulated
with the irrigation water use efficiency as 0.46, 0.48, 0.52 and
0.55 respectively. It is found that IWD with irrigation water use
efficiency of 0.55 is 12.3–13.0 billion m3 less than that with the
irrigation water use efficiency of 0.42, however, the IWD is still
7.1–9.1 billion m3 more than that in the historical period of
1971–2000. Based on the measure of improving irrigation water
use efficiency from 0.42 to 0.55,adjusting the crop types as
mentioned above and fixing the crop area as that in 2010, it is
found that adjusting crop planting types can save water about
1.0–1.4 billion m3 more than that without adjusting crop planting
types (Table 9 and Fig. 11b).
In order to clarify the most effective adaption strategies, IWD
was simulated by combination of three measures (Crop area as that
in 1990, 2000, 2010; irrigation water efficiency: 0.42, 0.48, 0.52,
0.68 and 0.8; crop planting types adjusting form the types as that
in 2010 to spring maize in Northern Xinjiang and Hexi area and
cotton in Southern Xinjiang). If the crop area is kept as that in
2010, the irrigation water efficiency need to be improved above
0.73 to make the future IWD reach as that in the historical period
of 1971–2000; If the crop area is kept as that in 2000, the irrigation
water efficiency need to be improved above 0.48 to make the
future IWD reach as that in the historical period; If the crop area
is kept as that in 1990, the irrigation water efficiency is kept above
0.4 can make the future IWD reach as that in the historical period
of 1971–2000 (Fig. 12).
272 Y. Guo, Y. Shen / Journal of Hydrology 540 (2016) 257–273
Fig. 12. Irrigation water demand change from the historical period of 1971–2000 to
future period (2016–2045 and 2046–2075) with irrigation water efficiency as 0.42,
0.48, 0.52, 0.68 and 0.8 without crop type adjusting (crop area as that in 1990, 2000
and 2010 represented by black solid line, red solid line and blue solid line) and with
crop planting types adjusting form the types as that in 2010 to spring maize in
Northern Xinjiang and Hexi area and cotton in Southern Xinjiang (crop area as that
in 1990, 2000 and 2010 represented by black dotted line, red dotted line and blue
dotted line). (For interpretation of the references to color in this figure legend, the
reader is referred to the web version of this article.)
Therefore, in order to cope with water crisis under future cli-
mate change and human activity, some measures are needed such
as controlling the planting scale, improving the utilization effi-
ciency of irrigation water and adjusting crop planting types,
according to the specific situation of the research region. However,
the current adjusting measure of crop planting types is not effec-
tive. It is necessary to further investigate the adjusting measure
of crop planting types according to water demand, yield and eco-
nomic benefits of different crop types.
4. Conclusions
Under CMIP5-RCP scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, both
air temperature and precipitation are showing increasing trends in
the ARNWC, and warming trend is more significant. In 2046–2075,
the temperature will increase by 1–2 °C in Southern Xinjiang and
by more than 3 °C in Northern Xinjiang compared with that in
the historical period of 1971–2000. Annual precipitation will also
increase from 120 mm in the past (1971–2000) to 155–165 mm.
The irrigation water demand of 5 main crops under future cli-
mate scenarios shows an increasing trend and will reach 37.02–
37.27 billion m3 and 37.15–38.9 billion m3 in 2016–2045 and
2046–2075, respectively. The amount increases by 4.27–6.15 bil-
lion m3 compared with that in the past (1971–2000). Spatially,
the largest IWD increases occur in Southern Xinjiang, the Ili River
Basin and the Northern piedmont of Tianshan Mountains.
Annual runoff of the two future periods will only increase by
4.8–7.5 billion m3 and 5.4–8.5 billion m3, respectively, which is
equivalent to or even less than the increased IWD of 5 main crops,
and runoff in some river basins even shows declining trends. The
potential changes of water supply and demand indicate that the
water shortage situation will be more severe in future. In some
basins, the water scarcity index will be over 1, which indicates that
the water resources in the basin will be unable to meet the water
demand of the basin. The water crisis is also likely to bring about
further deterioration of the ecological problem.
In order to respond to future water crisis and ecological environ-
ment protection, we compared the future irrigation water demand
under different adaptation strategies with that in the historical per-
iod of 1971–2000. It is found that in case of adjusting crop types as
only planting spring corn in the whole Northern Xinjiang region and
Hexi region and only planting cotton in the whole Southern region,
if planting area is restored to that in 1990 and irrigation water use
efficiency is improved above 0.4, or if planting area is restored to
that in 2000 and irrigation water use efficiency is improved above
0.48, the future irrigation water demand can basically keep to the
level in the historical period of 1971–2000; if planting area main-
tains the level in 2010, the irrigation water efficiency need to be
improved above 0.73 to make the future IWD reach as that in the
historical period of 1971–2000. Therefore, we should take measures
including improving irrigation water utilization efficiency, reducing
crop planting area and changing crop planting types according to
the water shortage situation in different regions to cope with the
impacts of future climate change and human activities on water
supply and water demand in the ARNWC.
Acknowledgements
This study was supported by the National Key Project on Basic
Research (973) (2010CB951003) and the key deployment project of
the Chinese academy of sciences (KZZD-EW-12-1).
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