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WK01-2.Spiganti MacroQEM Solow
WK01-2.Spiganti MacroQEM Solow
Alessandro Spiganti
Universitˋa Ca’ Foscari di Venezia
September 2021
Macroeconomics I
The Solow-Swan Model
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Our Aims
1. Develop a simple framework for the proximate causes and the mechanism of
economic growth and cross-country income differences
2. Provide a benchmark against which to evaluate the contribution of more complex
models
3. Start thinking about the microfoundations of macroeconomic models
References: Acemoglu (2008, Chapter 2), Barro and Sala-I-Martin (1995, Chapter 1),
Romer (2019, Chapter 1)
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Proximate and Fundamental Causes
- What are some possible motivations explaining the differences in average income
levels between e.g. US and Ghana?
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Growth and Physical Capital
- One obvious
candidate to look at is
investments in
physical capital
- There seems to be a
positive relationship
between growth and
investment rates
Average Growth Rates versus Average Investment to GDP Ratio, Various Countries
Source: Own elaboration with data from the Penn World Tables
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Roadmap
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The Solow Model in Discrete Time
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Framework: Settings and Households
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Framework: Production I
- All firms have access to the same production function so that we can simplify the
analysis by focusing on a representative firm with an aggregate production function
- K (t ) is capital but also is the final good of the economy, L(t ) is demand of labour, and
A(t ) is technology (or productivity) in t
- A(t )L(t ) is known as effective labour
- Technological progress in this form is known as labour-augmenting (or Harrod-neutral)
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Why This Production Function?
- The production function F (K (t ), L(t ), A(t )) is too general for our purposes
- In particular, may not have a so-called balanced growth i.e. a path of the economy
consistent with the Kaldor facts (Kaldor, 1957)
- Output per capita has increased over time at a relatively constant rate (in US,
approximately 1.8% from 1870)
- Capital, investment, consumption, and output per capita have all grown at the same
constant rate
- The interest rate remains roughly constant (around 5%)
- The distribution of income between capital and labour remain roughly constant (at
around 1/3 and 2/3)
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Kaldor Facts I
Output per worker grows at a roughly constant rate that does not diminish over time
Source: Own elaboration with data from FRED
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Kaldor Facts II
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Types of Neutral Technological Progress II
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Example: The Cobb-Douglas Production Function I
Y (t ) = K α (AL) β (2)
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Example: The Cobb-Douglas Production Function II
- where ω and R are the wage rate and the rental price of capital
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Example: The Cobb-Douglas Production Function III
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Framework: Production II
∂F (·) ∂F (·)
FK (K , AL) ≡ >0 FL (K , AL) ≡ >0
∂K ∂L
∂2 F (·) ∂2 F (·)
FKK (K , AL) ≡ <0 FLL (K , AL) ≡ <0
∂K 2 ∂L2
- The production function F exhibits constant returns to scale in K and L, i.e. it is
homogeneous of degree 1 (or linearly homogeneous) in these two variables
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Homogeneity and Euler’s Theorem
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Framework: Production III
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Market Structure, Endowments, and Market Clearing I
- By Assumption 1 and the fact that the labour market is competitive, ω (t ) > 0
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Market Structure, Endowments, and Market Clearing II
- Capital market
- Households own the capital stock and they rent it to firms for a rental price of capital R (t )
- Capital market clearing condition
K s (t ) = K (t ), ∀t (4)
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Market Structure, Endowments, and Market Clearing III
- Final good
- Normalise the price of the final good at all dates to P (t ) ≡ 1
- Usually we can normalise the price of only one commodity (e.g. one good in one period or
state), but here it will be sufficient to keep track of an interest rate across periods, r (t )
- One unit of the final good can be consumed now or used as capital and rented to firm
- In the former case, one unit is consumed
- In the latter case, the household receives R (t ) in the next period but loses δ units due to
depreciation
- The interest rate faced by the household will thus be
r (t ) = R (t ) − δ (5)
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Optimal Production Decisions
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Optimal Production Decisions I
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Optimal Production Decisions II
- First-order conditions imply that the rental rates are equal to the marginal products
Y (t ) = ω (t )L(t ) + R (t )K (t ) (7)
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Laws of Motion
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Fundamental Laws of Motion of the Solow Model I
K (t + 1) = (1 − δ )K (t ) + I (t ) (8)
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Fundamental Laws of Motion of the Solow Model II
Y (t ) = C (t ) + I (t ) (9)
S (t ) = I (t ) = Y (t ) − C (t ) (10)
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Fundamental Laws of Motion of the Solow Model III
- The fundamental law of motion of the Solow model can thus be written as
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Definition of Equilibrium
- The Solow model is a mixture of an old-style Keynesian model and a modern dynamic
macroeconomic model
- Households do not maximise
- But firms maximise and markets clear
- Definition of Equilibrium:
- For a given sequence of {L(t ), A(t )}t∞=0 and an initial capital stock K (0), an equilibrium
path of the baseline Solow model is a sequence of capital stocks, output levels,
consumption levels, wages and rental rates {K (t ), Y (t ), C (t ), ω (t ), R (t )}t∞=0 such that
K (t ) satisfies (11), Y (t ) is given by (1), C (t ) is given by (1 − s )Y (t ), and ω (t ) and R (t )
are given by (6a) and (6b)
- Note that it is an entire path of allocations and prices
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Equilibrium With Constant Population
and No Technological Progress
(in Discrete Time)
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Equilibrium I
- where y (t ) ≡ Y (t )/(AL) and k (t ) ≡ K (t )/(AL) are output and capital per efficiency unit
of labour
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Equilibrium II
R (t ) = f 0 (k (t )) (13a)
ω (t ) = A f (k (t )) − k (t )f 0 (k (t ))
(13b)
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Equilibrium III
- We can also express the law of motion in (11) in intensive form by dividing both sides
by AL
k (t + 1) = sf (k (t )) + (1 − δ)k (t ) (14)
- Definition
- A steady-state equilibrium without technological progress and population growth is an
equilibrium path in which k (t ) = k ? for all t
- The economy will tend to this steady state equilibrium over time
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Equilibrium IV
- At the intersection,
k (t ) = k (t + 1) ≡ k ?
sf (k (t )) + (1 − δ)k (t ) = k (t )
f (k ? ) δ
- i.e. k? = s
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Equilibrium V
c ? (s ) = (1 − s ) f (k ? (s )) = f (k ? (s )) − sf (k ? (s )) = f (k ? (s )) − δk ? (s ) (15)
∂c ? (s ) ∂k ? (s )
= f 0 (k ? (s )) − δ
(16)
∂s ∂s
- The maximum c ? is reached for ∂c ? (sgold )/∂s = 0, i.e.
f 0 kgold
?
=δ (17)
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The Golden Rule II
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The Golden Rule II
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Transitional Dynamics I
- Remember that the equilibrium is an entire path of capital stock, output, consumption,
and prices
- We thus need to study the transitional dynamics of the equilibrium difference equation
(14) starting from an arbitrary k (0) > 0
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Transitional Dynamics II
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Transitional Dynamics II
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Recap
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From Discrete to Continuous Time
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From Discrete to Continuous Time: Why?
- Modern macroeconomic models are set in either continuous and discrete time
- The continuous time setup has a number of advantages, like more flexibility and
allowing explicit-form solutions in a wider set of circumstances
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From difference to differential equations I
x (t + 1) − x (t ) = g (x (t )) (18)
x (t + ∆t ) − x (t ) ≈ ∆t · g (x (t )) (19)
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From difference to differential equations II
x (t + ∆t ) − x (t )
lim = g (x (t )) (20)
∆t →0 ∆t
| {z }
dx (t )
dt ≡ẋ (t )
- Equation (20) is a differential equation representing (18) for the case in which the
difference between t and t + 1 is “small”
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The Solow Model in Continuous Time: Reminder
- Reminder
- Savings are S (t ) = sY (t )
- Consumption is C (t ) = (1 − s )Y (t )
- Instantaneous wage rate is ω (t ) = FL (K (t ), A(t )L(t ))
- Instantaneous rental rate is R (t ) = FK (K (t ), A(t )L(t ))
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The Fundamental Laws of Motion in Continuous Time
L̇(t )
L(t ) = exp(nt )L(0) or, equivalently, =n (21)
L(t )
Ȧ(t )
A(t ) = exp(gt )A(0) or, equivalently, =g (22)
A(t )
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The Solow Model in Continuous Time
K (t )
k (t ) =
A(t )L(t )
Y (t ) K (t )
y (t ) = =F , 1 ≡ f (k (t ))
A(t )L(t ) A(t )L(t )
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The Steady-State in Transformed Variables
- This equation possess a steady state, i.e. a value for which k̇ (t ) = 0, for
sf (k (t )) = (δ + g + n)k (t ) (25)
| {z } | {z }
savings break-even investment
f (k ? ) δ+g+n
?
= (26)
k s
- Total savings are used for replenishing the capital stock because of depreciation at rate δ,
Harrod-neutral technological progress at rate g, and population growth at rate n (which
reduces capital per worker)
- New replenishment of effective capital-labour requires investments to be equal to
( δ + g + n )k
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Actual and Break-Even Investment
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The Phase Diagram
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Steady-State and Balanced Growth Path
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Comparative Dynamics
- How does the economy reacts to a shock i.e. to a change in its parameters?
- We are interested in the entire path of adjustment of the economy following the shock or
changing parameter
- Comparative statics: effect of parameter change on steady state
- Comparative dynamics: adjustment towards the new balanced growth path
- For example, assume that the economy is on the balanced growth path when there is
a permanent increase in s
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A Change in the Saving Rate I
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A Change in the Saving Rate II
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A Change in the Saving Rate III
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The Solow Model and the Data
References: Acemoglu (2008, Chapter 3), Barro and Sala-I-Martin (1995, Chapters 10-12),
Romer (2019, Chapter 1.7, 4.6)
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The Solow Model and the Data
- We look at how the Solow model can be used to interpret both economic growth over
time and cross-country output differences
- The focus is still on proximate causes, like investments, capital accumulation, technology
and capital differences...
- We will discuss
- The concepts of conditional and unconditional convergence
- The growth accounting framework
- Cross-country output differences
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Speed of Convergence I
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Speed of Convergence I
k̇ (t ) sf (k (t ))
= − (δ + g + n)
k (t ) k (t )
- The left-hand side is the growth rate of k
- How fast k grows depend on the distance between the two terms on the right-hand side
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Speed of Convergence I
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Speed of Convergence II
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Speed of Convergence III
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Speed of Convergence IV
- To test the absolute convergence hypothesis with data, consider the following
regression
gi;t,t −1 = β ln yi;t −1 + ei;t (27)
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Speed of Convergence V
Figure: Own elaboration with data from the Penn World Tables
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Speed of Convergence VI
- The unconditional convergence is not supported by the data at the world-wide level
- β is approximately 0
- It requires the income gap between any two countries to decline, irrespective of what
types of technological opportunities, investment behaviour, policies and institutions
these countries have
- If countries do differ, the Solow model would not predict that they should converge in
income levels
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Speed of Convergence IV
- To test the conditional convergence hypothesis with data, consider a typical Barro
growth regression
0
gi;t,t −1 = β ln yi;t −1 + X i;t −1 α + ei;t (28)
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Speed of Convergence VII
Figure: Own elaboration with data from the Penn World Tables
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Speed of Convergence VIII
- There is a strong negative relationship between GDP per worker (in natural logs) in
1960 and the annual growth rate between 1960 and 2017 among the OECD
countries
- They are relatively homogeneous, with much more similar institutions, policies and initial
conditions than the entire world
- There might be a type of conditional convergence
- We need to control for certain country characteristics potentially affecting economic
growth
- This is what the vector X t −1 captures
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Speed of Convergence IX
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Speed of Convergence X
Figure: Convergence across Japanese prefectures (Barro and Sala-I-Martin, 1995, 11.5)
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Growth Accounting I
- Solow’s (1957) growth accounting framework provides a tool for evaluating the
contributions of different sources to economic growth
- We focus on the proximate causes
- It uses the Solow model to interpret both growth over time and cross-country output (or
income) differences
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Growth Accounting II
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Growth Accounting II
- Start with the production function Y = F (K (t ), A(t )L(t )), take derivatives with
respect to time, and divide throughout by Y (t )
- αK (t ) and αL (t ) are, respectively, the elasticity of output with respect to capital and
labour at time t (also known as factor shares)
- x (t ) is the contribution of technology
- The growth rate of GDP is a weighted average of the growth rates of the three inputs
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Growth Accounting III
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Growth Accounting III
- The growth rates of Y , K , and L can be measured (not without difficulty), as can the
capital share
- x (t ) is then a residual capturing all sources of growth other than the contribution of
capital accumulation via its private return. It is known as Solow residual or Total Factor
Productivity (TFP) growth
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Growth Accounting IV
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Growth Accounting V
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Growth Accounting VI
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Growth Accounting VII
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Income Differences I
- The Solow model identifies two explanations for the differences in output per worker
(among different countries or over time)
- Differences in capital per worker i.e. K /L
- Differences in effectiveness of labour (technology) i.e. A
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Income Differences II
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Income Differences III
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Income Differences IV
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Conclusions
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The Solow Model: Recap
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Bibliography I
Acemoglu, D. (2008), Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Princeton University Press, Princeton.
Barro, R., and X. Sala-I-Martin. (1995), Economic Growth, McGraw Hill, New York.
Kaldor, N. (1957), A model of economic growth, The Economic Journal 67, 591 – 624.
Romer, D. (2019), Advanced Macroeconomics, McGraw Hill, New York.
Solow, R. M. (1957), Technical change and the aggregate production function, Review of Economics and
Statistics 39, 312 – 320.