1

CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION

1. Needs of the study

In the very last days of 2019, COVID-19 disease: an infectious disease caused by a
type of coronavirus that later was named SAR-CoV-2 emerged and quickly became a
global phenonmenon. The World Health Organization (WHO) officially declared the
2019–20 coronavirus outbreak or the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic on 11 March,
2020 (Adhanom Ghebreyesus, 2020) yet since the Wuhan Municipal Health
Commission, China, reported a cluster of cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, Hubei
Province on December the 31 st, 2020: COVID-19 disease has undeniably become the
hottest topic across nations due to its far-reaching impacts whose volumes no papers
have been able to estimate exactly and thoroughly (Bryson Taylor, 2020). Scientists,
socialists… have been at with numerous investigations and researches on a variety of
subjects related to this socio-economic phenomenon, among which the latest to be
released are reports on its influence in the first quarter of 2020 in different countries or
regions using real statistics and forecasts for the rest 9 months in accordance with
predicted scenarios of epidemic.

The fact that Vietnam is a neighbor of China and by the time the virus was detected,
many Vietnamese citizens had come back to their hometown for the Tet holiday has
made Vietnam one of the earliest territories to join China in the fight against the
COVID-19 as of January 23rd, the first two positive cases were reported in our territory.
In the first 3 months of 2020, 207 cases had been tested positive for the COVID-19 in
Vietnam including community infection. (Ncov.moh.gov.vn, 2020). The consequence
is, as stated in the report of socio-economic situation in the first quarter by General
Statistics Office, Vietnam is estimated to gain a GDP growth of 3.82% in quarter 1, the
lowest in the 2011-2020 period, lower than the earlier worst case scenario forecast of
5.96 percent for the whole year by the Ministry of Planning and Investment. Businesses
 2

faced many difficulties due to the direct impact of the Covid-19 epidemic, the number
of enterprises temporarily suspending their business in the first 3 months were up to
18.6 thousand enterprises, an increase of 26% compared to in the same period last year.
The unemployment rate during the period was, consequently, 2.22%, increased by
0.07% compared to the previous quarter and 0.05% compared to the same period last
year (gso.gov.vn, 2020).

Tourism was one of the industries that suffered the most as consumers refrained from
shopping in public places, traveling and dining out. Also according to the report of
General Statistics Office, accommodation and catering service revenue was estimated
at 126.2 trillion dong, decreased by 9.6% compared to the same period last year;
tourism revenue was estimated at 7.8 trillion VND, a decline of 27.8% compared to the
same period last year; transportation was directly affected by COVID-19 pandemic,
evidenced by passenger transportation reached 1,190.7 million passengers, decreased
by 6.1% over the same period last year whereas the number of international visitors to
Vietnam in the first 3 months experienced a decrease of 18.1% compared to same
period in 2019 (gso.gov.vn, 2020). Technology Grab, GoViet, or Be drivers in Hanoi
might say social distancing was a chance, as they never experienced such a tranquil
Hanoi with few, noticeable cars and bikes and noises and also the images of people;
online courses salesmen might be happy telling each other: “such a season to sell!”;
Hanoians and big city inhabitants might be thankful to the pandemic for a reduction in
pollution of all kinds; but probably none of those who worked in the tourism industry
would open their mouth and say similar things, just to imagine how damaged this field
has been.

Because Northern Vietnam was expected to be more severely affected by the COVID-
19 pandemic compared to other parts of the country with 11 out of 16 patients tested
positive in the first wave were in Vinh Phuc province and 111 out of 191 new
confirmed cases in the second wave until March 31st were in Northern provinces and
cities including Hanoi, Lai Chau, Ha Nam, Ninh Binh, Lao Cai (Ncov.moh.gov.vn,
 3

2020)... together with distinguished feature of tourism in the North, the writer has
chosen the topic “a preliminary research on impacts of tourism in the North of Vietnam
in the first 3 months of 2020” as senior seminar with the view of (1) answering the
question of how the impact was in the area of interest and (2) give out
recommendations for related parties in the near future.

2. Literature Review

Previous researches proved that tourism has always been first to be affected by
epidemics. Bell, Clive and Lewis, Maureen (2005) wrote on SAR and extended to the
similar diseases that could lead to severe consequence in the future:

“The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SAR) in the winter of 2002-03
raised the specter of a new, unknown and uncontrollable infectious disease that spreads
quickly and is often fatal. Certain branches of economic activity, notably tourism, felt
its impact almost at once, and investor expectations of a safe and controlled investment
climate were brought into question.”

The impacts of SAR on tourism were specifically analyzed in Hong Kong and
measures to help recover this industry of China government were named. However, the
document analyzed the economic implications of the previous epidemics: Great Plague
in the fourteenth century, the 1918-19 influenza pandemic, HIV/AIDS and SAR, which
mean it was conducted and published after the epidemics had gone, thus did not
embody values in warning people and recommending solutions to improve the
situation. Moreover, the study was conducted in 2005, which was 15 years before this
COVID-19 pandemic: things have changed dramatically, for example, people now go
travelling more and spend more, especially in Vietnam, which makes what was true
then not necessarily true at the moment. Another point is that the number of people
infected by COVID-19 just in the first quarter of 2020 was hundreds times more than
all of those epidemics (there were 8,439 probale cases of SAR (who.int, 2020B) while
there were 863,184 cases of COVID-19 diseases just in the first 3 months all over the
 4

world (who.int, 2020A)), therefore, it was reasonable to assume similarly acceleration

in the size of impacts.

Kuo, Hsiao-I and Chang, Chia-Lin and Chen, Chi-Chung and Huang, Biing-Wen and
McAleer, Michael (2009) provided an econometric analysis of SAR (2003) and H5N1
Avian Influenza (since 2004) on international tourist arrivals to Asian. The analysis
estimated the SAR model for the period January 2003 to December 2003, and the
Avian Flu model for the period January 2004 to July 2007 and found that:

“A very important finding was that, in both the short run and long run, SAR had a
more significant impact on international tourist arrivals than Avian Flu. In addition, the
cases of deaths for both SAR and Avian Flu suggested that SAR is more important to
international tourist arrivals than is Avian Flu.”

This conclusion implied that impact of infectious diseases (hereby SAR) is often bigger
than that of non-infectious diseases (hereby Avian Flu). The work by the authors
identified another reason a pandemic could affect the tourism industry besides the
measures of the government as in the above-mentioned research: the high mortality
rate among humans, the potential of a global flu pandemic, and some media frenzy
with hype and speculation might adversely affect the images of these infected
destinations as a safe tourist destination. However, the paper was based on secondary
data after the pandemics were controlled and was conducted more than 10 years ago,
bringing its application with COVID-19 case, which is still getting worse day by day,
into question.

Earlier investigations into the impact of this COVID-19 pandemic also illustrated that
tourism is vulnerable and in fact had been severely influenced. Liadze, I. and Naisbitt,
B. (2020) studied the impacts of 2019-nCoV on the global economy viewing it as an
economic shock, using the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model (NiGEM),
through 4 channels: a reduction in labour, a reduction in expenditure and investment,
an increase in uncertainty, and a temporary shutdown in some sectors. Here tourism
 5

(and related industries) is mentioned being affected by people voluntarily reducing

spending on non-essential goods in terms of tourists activities, hotel stays, meals out
and cinema visits, and reduced consumer retail shopping activity generally “These are
demand-driven shocks.” and by regional lockdown “there will be deliberate reductions
in economic activity as a consequence of lockdowns in many regions and countries to
halt the spread of the coronavirus. These consist of joint supply and demand shocks.”
This study quantified the effect of the underlying shock, yet not allowing for
substantial discretionary measures announced by countries. Scenarios in the study were
assumed, thus, might not represent reality.

Stephanie Segal, Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy and Dylan Gerstel
Research Assistant, Simon Chair in Political Economy at Center for Strategic and
international studies, US claimed that at the sectoral level, the travel industry and
travel-related ventures will be among the hardest hit as authorities empower "social
distancing" and buyers stay inside (Segal, S. and Gerstel, D., 2020). Real statistics
proved their claims. Take China for example, according to a report by PwC China:
“After the outbreak situation became serious nationwide, the Ministry of Culture and
Tourism has issued a series of papers, and suspended the group travel and “air ticket +
hotel” package offerings of nationwide travel agencies and online tourism companies.
At the same time, various local cultural and tourism authorities have been busy
deploying prevention and control measures.” In Beijing, for instance, a number of
large-scale occasions have been cancelled, including the temple fairs, with the Palace
Museum shut down to the visitors for the first time in its history. In China's social and
the travel industry framework, all public cultural service institutions, including
libraries, art exhibitions, cultural centers, and museums, have closed to guests and
abandoned numerious cultural activities, while significant vacation spots across the
nation have stopped receiving visitors. What's more, different troupes and performing
groups have also cut down or delayed their performances, while the theaters and
cinemas have been temporarily closed to the public. The suspension of the above
activities mainly aims to minimize the gathering of people, cut off the channels for
 6

virus transmission, and curb the spread of the disease and when to restart will have to
depend largely on the outbreak. Based on the scale of tourism revenues during the
Spring Festival in 2019, the outbreak is expected to causes RMB 500 billion in losses
to the tourism industry in 2020, or about 2% of GDP in the first quarter. (PwC China,
2020). However, that was in China, how significant the impact could really be depend
on the time that each government take actions and also the characteristics, the size of
tourism industry in that country or areas etc… as well.

Therefore, it is necessary that there is a specific study for the impact of COVID-19 in
the North of Vietnam with updated data and real situation in the region.

3. Research question

After investigating into the needs of the study and existing materials and papers, we
might expect that COVID-19 impacted tourism in the North of Vietnam, but in what
ways and how was that happening is still a question that need further investigation.
Therefore, the writer has listed down the following research questions: (1) “how had
the COVID-19 disease affected the tourism industry in the North of Vietnam in the
first 3 months of 2020?” and (2) “what recommendations can be given to the related
parties?” This study is concerned with changes in the demand of tourists and the
willing to supply of suppliers, and the fact that demand and the supply were partly
made worse by the policy of the governments, or the policy shock on the tourism
industry in the North of Vietnam in the first 3 months of 2020, thus proposed
accordingly solutions.

4. Methodology

In order to measure the impact of COVID-19 on tourism just in the North of Vietnam,
both secondary and primary data are needed, and both qualitative and quantitative
methods of analyzing are called in to best describe the findings.
 7

Secondary data that is directly related to the analysis was taken mostly from official
release on websites of The General Office of Statistics of Vietnam and Vietnam
National Administration of Tourism. However, by the time this study is finished (early
June, 2020) secondary data or statistics for tourism industry has not been classified by
regions or provinces yet due to the impacts hard to measure and also because the
pandemic situationin Vietnam has not been controlled completely yet. Therefore, in the
scope of this paper, the author would cite only the officual statistics of the whole
industry in Vietnam.

Empirical study was also conducted to provide further information that can not be
inferred by just analyzing the existing statistics. A survey on “Tourists demands for
tourism in the North of Vietnam in quarter 1 and reactions to COVID-19” has been
spread to 2000 people in the community via facebook from May 1 st to May 15th, 2020,
of which 224 responses were collected and used to investigate domestic demands
shock caused by the pandemic among the population if any. Due to limited time and
effort, and also the social distancing, the sample could not include people of a wide
range of variety in terms of nationality, age or working status; which might be the
space for further research if there are more time and convenient conditions.

Besides, 6 personal interviews have been conducted with the participation of travel
services suppliers, particularly hotel staffs, tourist attraction staffs, and tour guides in
order to see if there were changes in their willingness, capacity to supply the services
to tourists, or in the situation from their customers’ side, for example decrease in
inboud demands if any, that affected the businesses. The interviews were processed
via an online channel which is facebook messenger.
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CHAPTER 2: KNOWLEDGE BACKGROUND

1. Terminology
1.1. Economic shock

According to Jim Chapellow (2019), an economic shock refers to any change to

fundamental macroeconomic variables or relationships that has a substantial effect on
macroeconomic outcomes and measures of economic performance, such as
unemployment, consumption, and inflation. Shocks are often unpredictable and are
usually the result of events thought to be beyond the scope of normal economic
transactions. Economic shocks have widespread and lasting effects on the economy,
and are the root cause of recessions and economic cycles in Real Business Cycle
Theory.

Features of economic shocks include: (1) Economic shocks are random, unpredictable
events that have a widespread impact on the economy that are caused by things outside
the scope of economic models; (2) Economic shocks can be classified by the economic
sector that they originate from or by whether they primarily influence either supply or
demand and (3) Because markets are connected, the effects of shocks can move
through the economy to many markets and have a major macroeconomic impact, for
better or worse.

Following are some of the most commonly named types of economic shock:

a. Supply Shocks

A supply shock is an event that makes production across the economy more difficult,
more costly, or impossible for at least some industries. A rise in the cost of important
commodities, such as oil, can cause fuel prices to skyrocket, making it expensive to use
for business purposes. Natural disasters or weather events, such as hurricanes, floods,
or major earthquakes, can induce supply shocks, as can man-made event like wars or
major terrorism incidents.
 9

b. Demand Shocks

Demand shocks happen when there is a sudden and considerable shift in the patterns of
private spending, either in the form of consumer spending from consumers or
investment spending from businesses. An economic downturn in the economy of a
major export market can create a negative shock to business investment, particularly in
export industries. A crash in stock or home prices can cause a negative demand shock
as households react to a loss of wealth by cutting back sharply on consumption
spending. Supply shocks to consumer commodities with price inelastic demand, such
as food and energy, can also lead to a demand shock by reducing consumers real
incomes.

c. Financial Shocks

A financial shock is one that originates from the financial sector of the economy.
Because modern economies are so deeply dependent on the flow of liquidity and credit
to fund normal operations and payrolls, financial shocks can impact every industry in
an economy. A stock market crash, a liquidity crisis in the banking system,
unpredictable changes in monetary policy, or the rapid devaluation of a currency would
be examples of financial shocks.

d. Policy Shocks

Policy shocks are changes in government policy that have a profound economic effect.
The economic impact of a policy shock might even be the goal of a government action.
It could be an expected side effect or an entirely unintended consequence as well.
Fiscal policy is, in effect, a deliberate economic demand shock, positive or negative,
intended to smooth out aggregate demand over time. The imposition of tariffs and
other barriers to trade can create a positive shock for domestic industries but a negative
shock to domestic consumers.

e. Technology Shocks
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A technology shock results from technological developments that affect productivity.

The introduction of computers and Internet technology and the resulting increase in
productivity across many different occupations is an example of a positive technology
shock. Economists often use the term technology in a much broader sense than it is
understood by most people, so that many of the above examples of economic shocks,
such as a rise in energy prices, would also fall under the category of technology shocks.
However, people also often refer to shocks specifically originating from the technology
sector as technology shocks.

1.2. Tourism- related terminologies

The National Asembly of Vietnam in the Law No. 09/2017/QH14 defines “tourism” as
“activities in connection with trips taken by people outside their usual environment for
not more than 12 consecutive months for sightseeing, leisure, recreation, study, and
exploration and other legal purposes”, “tourist” as “a person who travels for either
tourism or for other purposes combined with tourism, except for those travel to study
or work”, and “tourism activity” as “activities of tourists, organizations and individuals
doing tourism business and organizations, individuals and local communities related to
tourism activities”. “Tourism product” is defined as “a combination of services
provided through tourism resource value in order to meet the needs of tourists.”
“Tourist attraction” means “a place with tourism resources that are used to serve
tourists”. “Travel services” include “creating, selling and running part of or the entire
tour program”. “Tour guiding” means “the provision of information, connection of
services, assisting tourists in using services in a tour program” and “tour guide” is “the
person who is issued with a card for tour guiding practice”.

In the same document, Article 10 in Chapter II classifies tourists into 3 catergories:

domestic tourists, inbound tourists and outbound tourists. Domestic tourists are
Vietnamese citizens and foreigners permanently residing in Vietnam who travel within
the territory of Vietnam for tourism purposes. Inbound tourists visiting Vietnam are
foreigners, overseas Vietnamese visiting Vietnam for tourism purposes. Outbound
 11

tourists are Vietnamese citizens and foreigners permanently residing in Vietnam who
travel abroad for tourism purposes. In this paper we consider 2 types of tourists who
travel to or in Vietnam only, one is domestic tourists and the other is international
tourists- here referring to inbound tourists.

2. Covid-19 and covid-19 pandemic

2.1. What is COVID-19

2.1.1. Definition of COVID-19

According to the WTO: “Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious disease

caused by a newly discovered coronavirus” (Who.int, 2020A)

Coronavirus is a group of viruses of the Coronaviridae family- the viruses having

single-stranded positive RNA genome with spiral symmetric nucleocapsid.
Coronaviruses in general can cause disease in humans and many animals. In humans
they often cause common cold symptoms, nose, sinus or throat infections and spread
through sneezing, coughing. However, some of the disease-causing strains can lead to
serious, potentially fatal pneumonia diseases.

There are 7 types of coronaviruses that cause disease in humans. First are the 4 types of
common colds - 2 types of alpha coronavirus which are 229E and NL63 and two types
of beta coronaviruses which are OC43 and HKU1 (according to Corman VM (2018)).
In addition, there are two types of coronaviruses that belong to the beta group that
caused the disaster: SAR-CoV (causing severe acute respiratory syndrome - SAR) in
2003 and MERS-CoV (causing Middle East Respiratory Syndrome) in 2013. The
seventh type is 2019_nCoV which is currently causing the COVID-19 pandemic.
2019_nCoV is a beta coronavirus in the same group as SAR_CoV, with the first case
reported on December 31, 2019 in Wuhan City in Hubei Province - China. The
outbreak is thought to be from a seafood market, where many wildlife species and
hosts are thought to be bats and snakes. Sequencing showed that the similarity with
 12

SAR-CoV genome was 85% (Zhu, N., D. Zhang (2020)) and the homogeneity of the
coronavirus strain isolated from bats was 96% (Zhou, P (2020)). It was later renamed
the “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SAR-CoV-2)” by WTO.

2.1.2. Features of COVID-19

The World Health Organization clams that most people infected with the COVID-19
virus will experience mild to moderate respiratory illness and recover without requiring
special treatment.  Older people, and those with underlying medical problems like
cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer are more likely
to develop serious illness. Most common symptoms are fever, dry cough and tiredness;
less common ones include aches and pains, sore throat, diarrhoea, conjunctivitis,
headache, loss of taste or smell, a rash on skin, or discolouration of fingers or toes and
the most serious are: difficulty breathing or shortness of breath, chest pain or pressure,
loss of speech or movement (wto.int, 2020A)

This virus is said to be highly infectious and can be transmitted through droplets and
close contact. The human to the human spreading of the virus occurs due to close
contact with an infected person exposed to coughing, sneezing, respiratory droplets or
aerosols (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Transmission dynamics of SAR-CoV-2 infection in People (Indranil, C. and

Prarenjit M., 2020)
 13

There are two types of transmissions that are proved by science, classified by whether
symptoms are already witnessed in patients or not, which are symptomatic and pre-
symptomatic transmission. Data from published epidemiology and virologic studies
provide evidence that COVID-19 is primarily transmitted from symptomatic people to
others who are in close contact through respiratory droplets, by direct contact with
infected persons, or by contact with contaminated objects and surfaces. This is
supported by detailed experiences shared by technical partners via WHO global expert
networks, and reports and presentations by Ministries of Health (wto.int, 2020).

Meanwhile, pre-symptomatic transmission is still possible even in the incubation

period for COVID-19, which is the time between exposure to the virus (becoming
infected) and symptom onset lasting about 5-6 days on average, however can be up to
14 days. During this period, also known as the “presymptomatic” period, some infected
persons can be contagious. As a result, a pre-symptomatic case can transmit the SAR-
COV-2 Virus to others before symptom onset.

At the time this study is conducted, there have been no specific vaccines or treatments
for COVID-19 qualified. However, there are many ongoing promising clinical trials
 14

evaluating potential treatments after 44,043 deaths just in the first quarter of 2020 and
hundreds of thousand more since then (Wordometer.info, 2020).

2.2. COVID-19 epidemic

2.2.1. Overall scenario

The world health organization provides a timeline for the development of COVID-19
from beginning and updates day by day (wto.int, 2020C)

Figure 2. COVID-19 from start to March 31st, 2020.

31/12/2019 11/02/2020 11/3/2020

China alerted WHO announced WHO
the WHO. The the name of the declared
virus was virus: "COVID- COVID-19
unknown. 19". a pandemic.

Many countries 28/2/2020 31/3/2020

outside China WHO raised the 863,184 people
(Thailand, US, threat of a were infected with
Europe, pandemic from 44,043 death tolls
Vietnam...) COVID-19 to "very all over the world.
reported positive high".
cases.

On December 31 last year, China alerted the WHO to several cases of unusual
pneumonia in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people. The virus was unknown.

Authorities in Thailand, US, Nepal, France, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, South

Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan ….reported confirmed cases over the following days.

On February 11, 2020, the WHO Director-General, Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus,
announced that the disease caused by this new CoV was "COVID-19," which is the
acronym of "coronavirus disease 2019"

Concerning COVID-19, the WHO raised the threat to the CoV epidemic to the "very
high" level, on February 28, 2020. Probably, the effects of the epidemic caused by the
new virus have yet to emerge as the situation is quickly evolving.
 15

On March 11, as the number of COVID-19 cases outside China has increased 13 times
and the number of countries involved has tripled with more than 118,000 cases in 114
countries and over 4,000 deaths, WHO declared the COVID-19 a pandemic.

Since then, the pandemic status had become worse and worse. By the end of March,
2020, COVID-19 had gone outside of China, reached hundreds of countries in the
world, causing 863,184 people to be infected, 44,043 death tolls had been registered
and 178,168 had been cured yet with possible lasting health impacts, according to
statistics from Wordometer (Wordometer.info, 2020).

2.2.2. Overall impacts in the world.

COVID-19 has become the hottest topic across the globe firstly due to human’s health
concerns as no specific treatments have been found up to now when this paper is
written. The relationship between human health and disease is neither a new concept,
nor a new subject. The emergence COVID-19 in China at the end of 2019 has caused a
large global outbreak and is a major public health issue. Apart from COVID-19, the
human civilization has witnessed at least five pandemics in the current century, e.g.
H1N1 in 2009, polio in 2014, Ebola (out broke in West Africa in 2014), Zika (2016)
and Ebola (Democratic Republic of Congo in 2019). Compared to other diseases and
their respective burdens, COVID-19 is likely to cause as much or greater human
suffering than other contagious diseases in the whole world. 726,000,000 results on
“COVID-19 health concerns” can be found after just 0.66 seconds searching on google,
the first to appear are official instructions from governmental as well as international
authorities, especially the WHO which tell you how to stay safe in the pandemic.
Google also suggests that people also search for “who is most at risk for the
coronavirus disease”, “cdc covid-19”, “covid-19 symptoms”, “covid-19 treatment”
probably because they want to ensure self-protection as scientists are still making
continuous efforts to find the most effective specific treatments, including drugs,
therapies and vaccines to tackle this novel coronavirus. News like: “scientists around
the world are working on potential treatments and vaccines for the new coronavirus
 16

disease known as COVID-19”; “several companies are working on antiviral drugs,

some of which are already in use against other illnesses, to treat people who already
have COVID-19”; “other companies are working on vaccines that could be used as a
preventive measure against the disease” do not give people much ensure about future
as there is increasing number of people testing positive each day in the world as a
whole. On March 31st, 2020: 74,054 new cases were confirmed just within those 24
hours, heading to a daily new cases peak occurring in the early April, as according to
statistics from Wordometer (worldometer.info, 2020).

But what humans are facing is not just health-related issues. Economies at both
national and global levels of all fields are suffering great losses. From national
lockdowns to closed airspace and borders, Covid-19 has resulted in unprecedented
disruption to the mechanics of most economies, regardless of their size or stage of
development. The fact that China, where COVID-19 originated, is now second largest
economy in the world, the world’s largest manufacturer, contributing to somewhere
around 17-20 percent of the world GDP is making all economic impacts more painful
and damaging and far-reaching. China's economy shrank in the first three months of
2020, evidenced by Statistics of Chinese National Bureau that gross domestic product
fell by 6.8% during the quarter - its first contraction since 1992, as production and
spending were frozen by the country's coronavirus lockdown (National Bureau of
Statistics of China, 2020). The sharp contraction reflects the weakness in consumer
spending and investor confidence while the novel coronavirus has flattened economies
around the world. Whereas in the United States, the crisis became alarming much later
than in China, yet insufficient preparation of US governments though having a lot of
time to do so has been causing severe damages to this number one superpower. Real
gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent in the first
quarter of 2020, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of
Economic Analysis, US (Bea.gov, 2020). In the fourth quarter of 2019, real GDP
increased 2.1 percent. Also according to BEA, the decline in first quarter GDP of the
US was, in part, due to the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued
 17

"stay-at-home" orders in March. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses

and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled,
restricted, or redirected their spending. The same trend happens in other parts of the
world: UK gross domestic product (GDP) in volume terms was estimated to have fallen
by 2.0% in Quarter 1, 2020, the largest fall since Quarter 4, 2008 while GDP growth of
European Union in the same period was reported to be -2.70%
(Tradingeconomics.com, 2020) .... The situation is forecasted to become even worse in
the future with different scenarios in each countries or regions before the pandemic is
controlled.

However, it seems that the COVID-19 pandemic have been doing good for the global
environment. From the very beginning of civilization, human beings gradually started
manipulating the nature for its own benefit. In order to satisfy the demand of increasing
population industrialization and urbanization became inevitable, and the obvious
significance was proved to be detrimental on the global environment. But, due to the
unusual outbreak of COVID-19, almost every big and small cities and villages in the
affected countries like China, Taiwan, Italy, USA, France, Spain, Turkey, Iran,
Germany, S Korea, U.K, India, Australia and many more, is under partial of total
lockdown for a long period of time ranging from a few weeks up to a few months. All
local and central administrations worldwide have literally put a ban on free movement
of their citizens outside their home in order to avoid community transmission. The
various religious, cultural, social, scientific, sport, and political mass gathering events
like, Hajj, Olympics etc. are cancelled. Various types of industries are not functioning,
all types of travels are cancelled. Meanwhile, efforts to restrict transmission of the
SAR-CoV-2, by restricting the movement have had an outstanding environmental
effect. Due to non-functioning of industries, industrial waste emission has decreased to
a large extent. Vehicles are hardly found on the roads resulting in almost zero emission
of green-house gases and toxic tiny suspended particles to the environment. Due to
lesser demand of power in industries, use of fossil fuels or conventional energy sources
have been lowered considerably. Ecosystems are being greatly recovered. In many big
 18

cities the inhabitants are experiencing a clear sky for the first time in their lives. The
pollution level in tourist spots such as forests, sea beaches, hill areas etc. is also
shrinking largely. Ozone layer has been found to have revived to some extent. The
pandemic has displayed its contrasting consequence on human civilization, in the sense
that, on one hand it has executed worldwide destruction, but created a very positive
impact on the world environment on the other hand.
 19

CHAPTER 3: COVID-19 AS POLICY SHOCK, DEMAND SHOCK AND

SUPPLY SHOCK TO TOURISM INDUSTRY IN THE NORTH OF VIETNAM
IN THE FIRST 3 MONTHS OF 2020

1. Overview of COVID-19 in Vietnam in the first 3 months of 2020

COVID-19 status in Vietnam in quarter 1 of 2020 can be divided into 2 waves. The
first one was from February 22nd to before March 5th, and the second lasted from March
6th to the end of March.

Vietnam confirmed the first two cases of COVID-19, a Chinese man travelling from
Wuhan to Hanoi to visit his son who lived in Vietnam, and his son, who was believed
to have contracted the disease from his father on January 23 rd, just two days before the
Lunar New Year holidays. From January 22nd to March 05th, a total of 16 confirmed
cases had been reported, 11 of which were discovered in Vinh Phuc Province, treated
and quarantined in Hanoi and Vinh Phuc, the other 6 cases were in Ho Chi Minh City,
Khanh Hoa province and Thanh Hoa province. (Ncov.moh.gov.vn, 2020)

On 6 March night, Hanoi urgently announced a new case of coronavirus, the first one
found in the capital of Vietnam, marking the opening of the second wave of COVID-19
pandemic in Vietnam. The patient (case number 17), a 26-year-old woman, had been
traveling across Europe where the situation was bad during the outbreak. From March
6 to the end of March, 2020, Vietnam registered 191 cases, more than ten times
compared to the first wave, among which 111 cases were discovered and treated in the
North of Vietnam over many provinces and cities (Ncov.moh.gov.vn, 2020)

2. Tourism industry in the North of Vietnam

According to the “Strategy on Viet Nam’s tourism development until 2020, vision to
2030,” approved by Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung in Decision 2473/QĐ-TTg
 20

dated December 30, 2011; to take advantage of strengths and strengthen the links
between regions, 7 key tourism areas are formed across the country, which are

(1) Midland and Mountainous areas in North Viet Nam, including Hoa Binh, Son
La, Dien Bien, Lai Chau, Yen Bai, Phu Tho, Lao Cai, Tuyen Quang, Ha Giang,
Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, Cao Bang, Lang Son and Bac Giang Provinces, are
featured with eco-cultural tourism associated with exploration of cultural
identities of ethnic minorities.
(2) Red River Delta and Coastal Northeast areas, including Ha Noi, Hai Phong City,
Vinh Phuc, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen and Thai Binh, Ha Nam, Ninh
Binh, Nam Dinh, Quang Ninh Provinces, are characterized by sea sightseeing,
cultural tourism associated with values of the wet rice civilization and local
traditional activities, urban tourism, MICE (Meetings, Incentives, Conferencing,
Exhibitions) tourism.
(3) North Central region, including Thanh Hoa, Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Binh,
Quang Tri and Thua Thien-Hue Provinces, is characterized by tours to explore
world cultural and natural heritage sites, marine tourism, eco-tourism, historic-
cultural exploration.
(4) Coastal South Central region, including Da Nang City, Quang Nam, Quang
Ngai, Binh Dinh, Phu Yen, Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan Provinces,
is distinguished in marine and resort tourism associated with the exploration of
heritages, marine culture and cuisine.
(5) Central Highlands, including Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong and Lam
Dong Provinces, have advantages in eco-tourism and cultural tourism together
with exploiting the unique cultural values of indigenous ethnic groups
(6) Eastern South Viet Nam, including Ho Chi Minh City, Dong Nai, Binh Duong,
Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Binh Phuoc, and Tay Ninh Provinces, is featured with urban
tourism, MICE tourism, culture and history exploration, marine ecological and
resort tourism.
 21

(7) Mekong Delta, including Long An, Dong Thap, An Giang, Kien Giang, Ca
Mau, Bac Lieu, Soc Trang, Ben Tre, Tra Vinh, Vinh Long, Tien Giang, Hau
Giang Provinces and Can Tho City, is where eco-tourism, river life culture,
marine ecological and resort tourism, and MICE tourism are focused.

The North of Vietnam involves 2 big key tourism regions. The first one is Midland and
Mountainous areas in North Vietnam, and the second one is Red River Delta and
Coastal Northeast areas.

2.1. Midland and Moutainous areas

Covering 14 provinces of Hoa Binh, Son La, Dien Bien, Lai Chau, Yen Bai, Phu Tho,
Lao Cai, Tuyen Quang, Ha Giang, Bac Kan, Thai Nguyen, Cao Bang, Lang Son and
Bac Giang, this region has 5 key tourist destinations: Son La - Dien Bien are in
association with Moc Chau, Son La lake, Tay Trang international border gate,
historical relics of Dien Bien Phu and Muong Phang; Lao Cai is connected to Lao Cai
international border gate, Sa Pa, Phan Xi Mang and Hoang Lien National Parks; Phu
Tho is associated with Hung Temple Festival and the system of relics of Hung Vuong
era, traveling to Thac Ba lake; Thai Nguyen - Lang Son is associated with Nui Coc
lake, ATK Dinh Hoa relics, Tan Trao, Dong Dang border gate economic zone, Mau
Son resort; Ha Giang is associated with the Dong Van Plateau Global Geopark, Meo
Vac, Ma Pi Leng and Na Hang landscapes. Additionally, the ethnic groups living here
still preserve and preserve a long-standing culture with many unique traditional
festivals such as the Song Tong festival, the Gou Tao festival, the council down, the
spreading festival ...; unique dances such as alpine dance, stall dance, then hat song,
glide song ... and many attractive folk games.

It’s said that the best season to go travel in the Midland and Mountainous region in the
North is the end of the previous year to the first 3 months of the next year as the natural
sceneries are the most beautiful in the cold weather and in spring with some rain. This
period involves the traditional Tet holidays of Vietnamese people with lots of
 22

traditional festivals and celebrations which also attract tourists from inside and outside
the country. The main tourism activities in this area, developed in accordance with
geographical characteristics, are going sightseeing, trekking, entertaining and
participating in festivals and some other side activities.

2.2. The Red River Delta and the Northeast Coast.

The other is The Red River Delta and the Northeast Coast, including Hanoi capital and
the provinces of Vinh Phuc, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen, Thai Binh, Ha Nam,
Ninh Binh, Nam Dinh, Hai Phong and Quang Ninh. There outstand 3 key tourist
destinations: Hanoi capital is associated with the system of historical and cultural relics
of the inner city and surrounding natural landscapes; Quang Ninh - Hai Phong with the
landscape of the Northeastern sea, especially Ha Long - Cat Ba, Van Don and Do Son;
Ninh Binh with Tam Coc - Bich Dong, Hoa Lu, Trang An, Van Long, Cuc Phuong;
Bai Dinh pagoda. This is also home to many typical traditional festivals such as Tran
temple festival, Giong festival, Lim festival, Huong pagoda festival ... and many
special art forms such as cheo, mandarins, singing, and classical drama, water Puppet...
One of the outstanding features of this area is that it has many world heritages that
have been recognized by UNESCO such as Ha Long Bay (Quang Ninh), the relics
center of Thang Long Imperial Citadel - Hanoi, stone steles for the doctoral
examination of the Le and Mac Dynasties, Giong guilds at Phu Dong and Soc temples
(Hanoi), “Ca Tru” and “Quan ho” in Bac Ninh. Especially, Ha Long Bay is now
recognized by New7Wonders as a new natural wonder of the world.

As can easily be inferred from the provided information, tourism activities occur all
around the year to some places and mostly summer with some other places. The most
popular activities in this area, therefore, are sightseeing together with experiencing
local specialities and also spiritual tourism as there are many temples and pagodas to
be named: One Pillar Pagoda, Tay Phuong Pagoda (Hanoi), But Thap Pagoda , Do
temple (Bac Ninh), Keo pagoda (Thai Binh), Co Le pagoda (Nam Dinh), Bai Dinh
pagoda, Tam Chuc Pagoda, etc.
 23

2.3. What attracts tourists to the North of Vietnam

The North of Vietnam, as mentioned above, has a lot of tourism advantages which is a
combination of the two key tourism regions.

2.3.1. Northern Vietnam- the place of beautiful landscapes and sceneries

The first advantage of Northern tourism to mention is the number of picturesque tourist
attractions in the area. Ha Giang Province which has narrow ribbon roads with hair-
raising bends meander the rugged peaks and green valleys of the very far northeast of
Vietnam. Though poor infrastructure has traditionally meant fewer outsiders, more
travellers are making the effort to visit this forgotten province of dramatic scenery and
colourful minority villages. Cat Ba island (Hai Phong Province) is rocky and wild and
begging to be explored. Half of Cat Ba is verdant national park and it’s a paradise for
travellers who come here to hike, climb and kayak (the waters and coral reefs are
protected too). Ha Long Bay After 20 years of being recognized by UNESCO as a
Second World Natural Heritage, Ha Long Bay has really become a famous brand of
tourism in Quang Ninh, Vietnam and the world; is the pride of the people of Quang
Ninh and the top choice destination for domestic and international tourists, according
to a speech of Chairman of Quang Ninh People's Committee Nguyen Van Thang.
When the sun rises over the still emerald waters and the bay’s scattered islands, islets
and limestone pillars, the seascape is the most beautiful in the world – and even in the
cooler off season the fog can add a touch of dreamy mysticism (Vietnam National
Administration of Tourism, 2020A). And many more such as Sapa, places in Ninh
Binh such as Tam Coc Bich Dong, Thung Nham, Thung Nang, etc…

2.3.2. Northern Vietnam- the place of historical and cultural values

Northern Vietnam is the place of historical nostalga, as there exist various historical
relics and destinations which were evidences of the glorious past of the whole nation,
of national construction and national defense as well. That, of course will attract the
 24

people who care about the history of a nation that defeated the superpowers in the
world or care about just the origin of the Vietnam country. Hanoi perfectly represents
the place of history as it has been the capital of Vietnam for more than a thousand
years. At the present there are many historical places in Hanoi that are recognized as
national special historical relics, for example: Thang Long- Hanoi Citadel, Temple of
Literature, The presidential palace in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh Mausolium, Co Loa
complex, Hai Ba Trung temple, Hat Mon Temple, Hoan Kiem Lake and Ngoc Son
Temple… For more information, please see the annex 2: List of national special
historical relics in Vietnam (Department of Cultural Heritage, 2020).

Together with the development of the society, the variety of people groups in the North
of Vietnam contributes to Northern being a place of culture diversity. Besides Kinh
people, the ethnic minorities in the North of Vietnam are preserving their cultural
differences and passing them from generation to generation through customs and
practices. Their festivals seem more like performance of themselves, an introduction to
the history and the culture of minor groups of people living together, which attract a lot
of international tourists.

2.3.3. Northern Vietnam- the place of world heritages

Northern Vietnam is famous to foreign friends for having a lot of world heritages, both
tangible and untangible.

a. Tangible heritages

At the present, Vietnam has 8 world tangible heritages in total, among which 3 are in
the North of Vietnam. According to the statistics of Vietnam National Administration
of Tourism (Vietnam National Administration of Tourism, 2020B) , in 2019, Trang An
scenic complex and Ha Long Bay welcomed nearly 11 millions of visitors, and were
among the top 3 most visited places in Vietnam. Specifically:
 25

(1) Ha Long Bay (Quang Ninh) welcomed 4.4 million visitors. In particular, 2.9
million were international visitors, 1.5 million were domestic visitors; tourism
revenue reached 1,237 billion.
(2) Trang An scenic complex (Ninh Binh) welcomed 6,327,488 visitors. In
particular, there were 5,567,628 domestic tourists, 759,859 international
visitors; revenue from tourism reached 867.5 billion.
(3) Center of Thang Long Imperial City - Hanoi welcomed 461,715 visitors. In
particular, there were 230,459 international visitors, 231,256 domestic visitors,
bringing tourism revenue of 11.1 billion.
b. Intangible heritages

Up to now, there are 11 intangible world heritages recognized in Vietnam (Ministry of

Foreign Affairs, 2020), 4 of which were totally in the Northern part:

(1) Quan Ho Bac Ninh - Representative intangible heritage of humanity (2009)

Quan Ho Bac Ninh was officially recognized by UNESCO as the representative

intangible cultural heritage of humanity on September 30, 2009. Quan Ho Bac Ninh is
a male-female reciprocal song which exists in 49 villages in Kinh Bac (Bac Ninh and
Bac Giang. Quan Ho has 213 different voices (melodies) with more than 400 songs,
mainly popular lyrics and poetry. The value of the Quan Ho in Bac Ninh is reflected in
a deep human spirit through each song, lyrics and way of expression.

(2) Giong Festival - Representative intangible heritage of humanity (2010)

Giong Festival in Phu Dong Temple and Soc Temple of Vietnam was officially
approved by UNESCO to be listed on the List of Intangible Cultural Heritage of
humanity on November 16, 2010.

Saint Giong Festival, also known as Phu Dong Village Festival, is one of the biggest
festivals in the Northern Delta, which recalls the story of Thanh Giong, one of the
immortal fours of Vietnamese folk beliefs and defeated the enemy. The festival starts
 26

on 6/4 every year. During the festival, there are many folk games held such as
cockfighting, chess, “ca tru” singing,..

(3) Xoan singing - Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity 2017

Xoan singing was recognized by UNESCO as an Intangible Cultural Heritage in need

of urgent protection of mankind on November 24, 2011; It was removed from the list
after that and was readded after 6 years of our attempts.

Xoan singing is also known as Khuc singing (singing at the door of the communal
house). The ancient Van Lang held Xoan songs in the spring to welcome the new year.
There are 3 forms of oval singing: for worshiping the Hung kings and the village's
tutelary gods; singing in rituals of good season, pray for health; and singing in festivals
is a form for men and women to interact with each other and couple. The protection
and promotion of Xoan singing will contribute positively to preserving the national
cultural identity and maintaining the diversity of human culture.

(4) Worship of Hung Vuong - Representative intangible heritage of humanity

(2012)

The worship of Hung Vuong was recognized by UNESCO as an Intangible Cultural

Heritage of mankind on December 6, 2012. The worship of Hung Vuong was
developed and paid much attention to before being officially honored in the Late Le
Dynasty (1428 - 1788). Today, millions of pilgrims visit the temple of Hung Kings in
Phu Tho Province every year to pay tribute and pray for good luck and health. Festival
of Hung Kings lasted nearly a week, held in early March of the lunar calendar. Villages
around the procession and objects worship the most valuable ritual, along with drums
and gongs to the main temple.

3. COVID-19 caused economic shocks to the tourism industry in the North of

Vietnam in quarter 1
3.1. Policy shock
 27

The result as a policy shock was not the government’s intention when implementing
measures against the COVID-19 pandamic. It was just a huge side effect sacrificed for
long-term benefit.

Confronting COVID-19, with experiences from previous pandemic such as the Avian
Flu and witnessing the situation of China, Vietnam Government had quickly prepared
and resonded to the virus.

Measures taken by governments affected all aspects of life leading to both demand and
supply side decreases in both tourism demand and supply sides: blockade, and
strengthen quarantine; restricting crowds, canceling many festivals and conferences,
and recently isolating the whole society.

According to (Vietnam.travel, 2020): right after the first confirmed case in Vietnam,
the government has deployed various measures to combat the virus, including halting
all flights to coronavirus-hit areas in China, suspending visas for visitors from those
regions, quarantining Chinese workers returning to Vietnam after the Lunar New Year
holiday. Since late January, the government has required all people arriving from
China to submit a health declaration and undertake quarantine in government-
controlled facilities for 14 days. That was to prevent the sources of the virus caused
COVID-19 to be imported into the country as this is an highly infectious disease, and
the next step, was to control and discover if there were any positive cases due to the
pre-symptomatic period of this viurs lasts up to 14 days. When January saw tourists
from China to Vietnam post record high growth, increasing 72.6 percent from a year
ago to 644,700, (gso.gov.vn, 2020) the highest growth and accounting for one third of
total foreign tourists during the first month of the new year, according to General
Statistics Office, this action was really a shock to the industry. Yet these requirements
were gradually expanded to those arriving from the Republic of Korea, the United
States (ranked second and third in numbers of tourists to Vietnam in January, 2020
according to the General Statistics Office), and EU countries. Quarantine is largely in
military facilities and is free of charge. From March 18, Vietnam stopped issuing new
 28

visas to all foreigners as part of efforts to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus.
Businesses in the tourism industry that relies on the inbound source of tourists were
hardly surviving.

Schools were temporarily closed. Many tourist attractions were closed to all tourists,
such as all places in Ninh Binh since March 13 . A number of festivals and events in
Vietnam have been cancelled or postponed in alignment with the government’s
directive to avoid public gatherings, as the vius can be easily transmitted through
droplets and close contacts or even just touching the contaminated materials. The
guiding services of fixed tours which include the choices that could not be accessed by
then faced a lot of difficulties. From March 28 to April 15, 2020, the Vietnamese
government banned all events which may gather more than 20 people, and any public
gatherings with 10 people or more, including all religious services. Most businesses
providing services that are deemed non-essential had been ordered to close, including
restaurants, bars, movie theaters, hair salons, gyms, and retail stores, except those
providing essential food and drugs. Tourism activities were, of course, counted in.

Domestic travelling officially suffered from suspension of domestic flights from March
30 except for routes from Hanoi to Ho Chi Minh City, and from Hanoi/Ho Chi Minh
City to Da Nang and Phu Quoc maintained with a maximum frequency of one round
trip per day for each airline. Buses and railroad services are also minimized both within
a province as well as between provinces as transportation is a good way for the virus to
be transmitted with lots of people come and go every minutes.

3.2. Demand Shock

The demand for tourism in the North of Vietnam could be devided into inbound
demand and domestic demand.

Due to the measures of the government, foreign people could hardly get into Vietnam
and if they could, they must undergo 14-day quarantine which would ruin everyone’s
tourism experiences. Moreover, Vietnam was one of the earliest territorry to join China
 29

in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, while Northern Vietnam had more cases
in both waves than the south of Vietnam, causing fear for those who intended to visit
the North, in stead, they would change to another country or another region in
Vietnam. Additionally, The North of Vietnam attracts comparatively more foreign
tourists than domestic ones for its landscapes, historical and cultural values, and its
world heritages. As a result, tourism in the North of Vietnam was expected to see a big
fall in demand in quarter 1 of 2020.

Regarding domestic demand, as travel was restricted, social distancing was

encouraged, and people were afraid of gettng infected, the domestic demand was also
expected to decrease.

A decline in demand for tourism in the area might also be a reduction in private
spending as people did not want to spend the money.

According to the statistics of Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (Vietnam

National Administration of Tourism, 2020C), in the first quarter of 2020, the number
of international visitors to Vietnam decreased by 18% compared to the same period last
year; while the number of domestic visitors decreased by 6%, the whole industry
revenue decreased by 11% compared to the same period in 2019.

After an increase of 33% in January compared to the same period last year, the number
of international visitors to our country fell sharply in February (by 22%) and in March
(by 68%) due to Covid-19 epidemic. Specifically, the number of international visitors
to Vietnam in January 2020 was estimated at 1,994,125, increased by 16.6% compared
with December 2019 and by 32.8% compared with the same period in 2019. In
February 2020 that number was 1,242,731 arrivals, decreased by 37.7% compared with
1/2020 and by 21.8% compared to the same period in 2019. The downward trend
continued in March 2020 with a figure of 449,923, which meant a decline of 63.8%
compared with 2/2020 and of 68.1% compared with the same period in 2019.
Generally, in the first 3 months of 2020, it was estimated to reach 3,686. 779 visitors,
 30

equivalent to a decline of 18,1% over the same period in 2019. A worse scenario is
forecasted from April: that number bottom as social isolation and quarantines are
applied widely in the world.

3.3. Supply shock

Supply for the tourism industry in the area fell in the first quarter due to impacts from
decrease in demand, and the fear of getting infected by the virus which lead to
difficulties in selling and serving services to the customers. As a result of reduced
revenue, suppliers had to cut off operation expenses, causing workers being
unemployed. At a certain level, businesses would have to shut down because they
could not bear the operations anymore.

Another reason resulting in a decline in supply was a reduction in the willingness to

supply of the direct suppliers, who directly come into contacts with the customers as
they might think the “price” that they would receive was less valuable than what they
need to “produce” the services- that they had to bear the health risks of getting the
disease.

By the end of March, the share price of the travel group decreased sharply (-33.2%)
compared to the beginning of the year. Companies providing tourism services hardly
operated. Tour guides refused to go on tours due to fear of getting infected. Many
tourist destinations closed responding to the order of the government. Revenue from
catering and accommodation services decreased by 9.6% and 27.8% over the same
period last year, making the number of businesses suspending operations in
accommodation and catering services in the first quarter of 202020 increased by 29.3%
over the same period in 2019 (Trungtamwto.vn, 2020).
 31

CHAPTER 4: EMPIRICAL STUDY

1. Survey: Demands of tourists to Northern Vietnam in the first 3 months of 2020
and reactions to COVID-19
1.1. Description

This survey aims at knowing whether demands of tourists to the North of Vietnam in
Quarter 1 of 2020 were affected by COVID-19 pandemic status or not. The survey was
conducted online and spread via the internet (Facebook) with 16 questions in total.
From 01/5/2020 to 15/5/2020, about 2000 surveys were sent and 224 responses were
collected, which was equal to a response rate of approximately 11%. Quantitative and
Qualitative analytics are applied in analyzing the final results of the survey (See annex
1).

1.2. Findings
a. Basic information of respondents:

Most are from Northern Vietnam (213/224 respondents, equivalent to 95.1%). Among
the rest, 7 are from the Central part, 1 from the South and 3 are outside of the country.

Most of them are from 18-25 years old. 65.2% of them are still studying- doubles that
figure for working people (30.4%). 4.5% of the respondents answered that they are
neither working nor studying.

Nearly a half (49.1%) of the population have monthly income or allowance less than 3
million vnd, approximately one third (31.7%) earn between 3 and 8 million, 12.1%
between 8 and 12 million, those who have more than 12 million vnd account for only
6.1% in total.

Regarding travel frequency: nearly 90% say they go travelling at least once a year.

b. Knowledge about covid-19:

 32

67.9% of respondents claim noticing COVID-19 disease even before the first case was
confirmed in Vietnam, and only 0.4% equivalent to 1 respondent noticed the disease
after the 17th case.

Figure 3. Time people noticed COVID-19

Everyone knows at least the basic things about the virus SAR-CoV-2 and 93.3% keep
themselves updated about the pandemic status.

c. Demand for Travelling in the North of Vietnam:

 33

Figure 4. Plans to visit Northern Vietnam

148 respondents (66.1%) had no plans to travel to the north of Vietnam in Q1. Being
asked about the main reason why they did not plan to travel in the north of Vietnam
during that time, 102 of them said health concern or fear of infection was the main
reason. 37, 38, and 39 chose Due to destinations closes, Due to Festivals and tourist
activities cancelation, and Due to financial problems respectively. Some of them added
personally subjective reasons: having no demand, being busy, studying…After all,
58.1% of them agree and totally agree that COVID-19 has had a great impact on their
decision to travel or during this period, 12.2% have no idea over the issue and others
disagree.

The other 76 respondents (33.9%) who planned to were asked different questions.

The first one:

 34

Figure 5. Time people planned to visit Northern Vietnam

And then:

Figure 6. Actual situation of those who planned to visit Northern Vietnam

Those who answered yes continued to answer about the difficulties or

inconveniences when travelling. 21 of them found “(Some) places of visit did not
open” a kind of difficulties or inconveniences, 11 felt for “(Some) tourists services
were not available”, 12 thought “People avoid contact with each other causing
inconvenience while communicating and experiencing” ruined their experience. 9
 35

others “had no difficulties or inconvenience”. One person added his own reason:
because “the place of interest is not as crowded as usual”

For those who did not travel as planned, 40 of them said health concern or fear of
infection was their main reason. 28 blamed it for destinations closes, 22 canceled
because of Festivals and tourist activities cancelation, and the reason of 10 respondents
was financial problems.

2. Interviews

Due to social distancing, the interviews were conducted online via facebook with 04
tour guides, 01 tourist destination staff and 01 hotel staff in Hanoi from 01/04 to
01/5/2020. Different participants were asked different questions just to find out
whether COVID-19 pandemic had some impacts on the supply sides as well as
indirectly investigate the changes in international demands, if have. Answers show that
their jobs suffered more and more severely from COVID-19 diseases over time since
its start as no more guests coming and where they worked could not bear the cost of
operation which led to the shutdown of those tourism agencies, hotels, and tourist
destinations in the first 3 months of 2020 (see annex 2).

3. Analysis
3.1. Demand side

Both domestic and international demands during the first 3 months of 2020 saw a deep
decline in number.

As suggested by Brahmbhatt (2005), the immediate economic impacts of a pandemic

disease might arise, not from actual sickness or death, but from the efforts of the public
and private sectors to avoid becoming infected rapidly. Consequently, this might lead
to a severe demand shock for service sectors, such as tourism, mass transportation,
hotels, restaurants, and retail sales.
 36

Domestic demands for tourism in the north of Vietnam were severely impacted due to
people being aware of coronavirus. People did not even intend to travel due to the
existence of COVID-19: 66.1% respondents in the survey had no plan to travel to the
North of Vietnam in Quarter 1 and the reasons that they pointed out always included at
least one related to the coronavirus among those provided in the answers, in which
health concerns or fear of infection outstood with 102/148 clicks. Among those 148
respondents, 58.1% agreed and totally agreed that COVID-19 has had great impact on
their decision to travel or during this period. Of course there were still those who
planned to travel, which accounted for nearly 34% of the population, yet only 40% of
them actually traveled as planned- equivalent to 30 people. That number means
approximately 14% of the number surveyed. Regardless of the actual situation, 96%
answers from people who planned to travel during the period suggested that health
concerns, fears of infection, difficulties and inconveniences either caused them to give
up or ruined their experiences.

International demands for all tourism services in the North of Vietnam decreased as
public events were banned, international travels to Vietnam were restricted,
destinations were closed and inconveniences as people followed safety instructions.
According to an estimation of Huong, volunteer staff at Ho Chi Minh Museum, Hanoi,
(Huong, respondent no.2, see annex 2) the number of foreign visitors to the Museum
decreased about 70% before it closed compared to the previous period due to the
pandemic, amd added that “During the period before January 22, the museum operated
normally, somewhat lively due to the Lunar New Year. From January 22 to March 5,
the number of visitors is very small.” Chi, working at Hanoi Emerald Waters Hotel on
Lo Su Street, (Chi, respondent no.1, see annex 2) said that since the pandemic
emerged, the number of bookings fell drastically while most of the previous bookings
were also cancelled. The tour guides agreed that foreign tourists declined since the first
confirmed case was reported in Vietnam and bottomed after the 17 th case, which led
them to fall into unemployment.
 37

3.2. Supply side

Supply side for tourism in the North of Vietnam quickly reacted in accordance with the
order of the government and the great decrease in demand.

First of all, due to the order of the government and for the sake of involving people,
many tourism services and activities were cancelled, such as the close of Ho Chi Minh
Museum during the period 05/03-31/3/2020, according to Huong, or that Ha Long
banned tourism for 2 weeks since 12/5 or Lan Ha (Quang Ninh) shut down in 2 weeks
and quarantined 4 ships after discovering a person who travelled on the flight no. VN
0054 together with patient no. 17, according to Trung (Trung, respondent no. 3, see
annex 2); plus other destinations, festivals, and entertaining activities in the areas were
no longer open or conducted causing difficulties and inconveniences for those planned
and managed to go travelling in the survey. This was expected to result in direct losses
for the owners or the organizers and indirect losses for relating partners, such as
tourism businesses which include the place or the event in the tour itself as they need to
either repay that amount to the guests or change their mind quickly to find substitutes
(Trung, respondent no. 3, see annex 2)

Secondly, a decrease in demand in return forced supply to shift downward as

companies tried to cut the operation expenses. At Hanoi Emeral Waters Hotel where
Chi was working at that time, around the 4th week of February, the hotel manager had
gathered all the staff to discuss how to manage staff during that difficult time. She saw
that the epidemic could last until July 7 this year, therefore, she proposed a plan to
provide financial support for those who return home and share shifts for those who stay
to work. Chi was among those who decided to stay with 13 shifts / month and accepted
a low salary. But in the end, even the biggest hotel in the system could not stand and
had to officially close around the second week of March. “Other employees and I could
not resist feeling heartbreaking”, said Chi (Chi, respondent no.2, see annex 2). Similar
situation happened to Huong and her colleagues: their frequencies of going to the
Museum declined from at least 2 shifts per week to 1 per week only and then zero
 38

finally all within quarter 1. Being asked whether people would change their jobs or not,
Tien said “tour guides might not as they could hardly find any similarly lucrative job,
yet they will probably find temporary works to do during this time” (Tien, respondent
no. 6, see annex 2)

Besides, there was degradation of the qualities of supply due to fear of infection as
people voluntarily gave up the work, kept only minumum contacts with others.
According to Trung, a tour guide who mainly guided guests to Quang Ninh and Ninh
Binh, many of his colleagues refused to go on tours since the information about
COVID-19 infection became known (Trung, respondent no. 3, see annex 2). Tien- a
tour guide specializing in Ninh Binh tours, claimed that on average, each month a tour
guide goes on 20 shifts, yet only 5-7 ones during the pandemic time. “The quality of
tourism was bad. The guests were also concerned with the pandemic. At the end of the
day no one was happy”. (Tien, respondent no.4, see annex 2)

3.3. Policy shock

The impact of this shock can be seen indirectly from the declines in both demands and
supply of tourism in the North of Vietnam in the first 3 months. The government’s
policies and measures to control the pandemic was a drive to all the above-mentioned
reactions of the economy and thus the loss of the industry in the region. Bao said in the
interview: “our government has banned visas from main European countries. Now
even if we want to make money, we have no tours” (Bao, respondent no.5, see annex
2).

4. Recommendations

The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry was not just limited in the North of
Vietnam yet was nationwide. Here are some of the recommendations that may help to
improve the situation in the rest of the year 2020 and in further future as well.

4.1. For the authorities:

 39

Firstly, the authorities should try to boost domestic demands as when the situation is
controlled inside the country in order to offset international demand decrease, which is
likely to help recover the supply side and prepare for a comeback with international
one once the situation is stabilized. Many festivals which were cancelled during the
peak time could be a good tool to do this: those festivals should be allowed to organize
with safety precautions. It has also proposed the authorities to develop consumer
stimulus packages for the tourism sector, including encouraging domestic consumers to
use tourism services by programme with the cooperation of localities, transport and
travel companies. For example, selling travel packages or combos for the rest of 2020
is a good way. Prices should be cheaper than pre-pandemic yet the qualities should
remain good so that the industry will not lose its images and reputation.

Secondly, as under the efforts of the whole nation, the result of the fight agaisnt
COVID- 19 pandemic in Vietnam has been positive recently at the time this paper is
finished as all as there were no new infected cases among the community while in
European and American countries, the situation seems much worse. Therefore, the
authorities should boost the image of the country by lauching programme indicating
that Vietnam is now and a safe counntry to travel to.

It has also proposed the Government to consider policies to create favourable

conditions for tourists to Vietnam, including visa exemptions or visa fee reductions,
increasing flights and opening new routes to foreign countries.

Last but not least, though we could not be sure how the scenarios would be in the
future, we do need to abolish the blockage of the country not only for the sake of
tourism but also for international trade as well. However, strict measures should be
implemented to control the situation and to respond quickly if any emergency happens.
For example, Vietnam can open gradually to countries which have controlled the
pandemic to a certain extent first, not forget to quarantine those who come to Vietnam
and conduct health reports strictly to discover the virus at first hand if any, or to track
quickly if something happens to a certain foreigner on our territory. This might help to
 40

restructure the international guests as well as the situation was still bad in big markets
of tourists to Vietnam like America, Japan, Korea, Russia…

However, to implement those scenarios, the industry needs practical solutions to help
businesses overcome difficulties at present, by financial package supporting tourism
businesses and workers, for example.

4.2. For businesses

The businesses in tourism industry, including accommodation and transportation

sectors should, in the near future, focus on the business travel segment, as demands for
travel from customers could not recover immediately after the pandemic as they were
financially impacted as well.

Travel agencies and business in accommodation, transportation and tourist attractions

should try to restructure the structure of tourists: conducting marketing towards new
markets, not to rely on traditional markets. The current difficulties force companies to
reform operations, including restructuring foreign tourism markets avoiding
dependence on traditional markets such as China and South Korea, especially big travel
companies such as Saigontourist, Hanoitourist, Vietravel and Hanoi Redtour. At the
same time they need to promote demands form domestic visitors as muchs possible by
lowering the prices or by offereing travel packages.

In addition, the companies have strengthened human resources and built tourism
stimulus products to prepare for the recovery of business after the pandemic, regarding
the fact that at the present many people who originally worked in the indutry have been
trying to find new jobs for livings.

4.3. For tour guides and acommodation staff and others who are
temporarily unemployed due to this pandemic.
 41

Given the fact that tourism is a special and big indutry, those who worked in the
industry could change their position quite easily within the industry (vertically) yet it’s
undeniably hard for them to try to find another jobs in a totally new areas, especially
for those who have served in this service sector for a long time.

Therefore, the writer’s recommendations for this group include:

First of all, they should try to practise their knowledge and skills regularly if they still
want to be in the industry. They could even spend this period self- reflecting, gaining
more knowledge and maybe enhancing their languages proficiency. Be prepared as the
situation is getting better and better.

Secondly, they can spend this time go travelling, spend time for the family, or do
whatever they like, to give themselves a break from the hustle and bustle of life so far
before coming back to work when the situation becomes more optimistic or they might
try to find another job for temporarily covering living expenses of themselves as well
as their family at the same time.

Last but not least, if they want to switch to another field of the economy, they should
start immediately. This is also a new chance for them to experience new things and
new tasks.
 42

CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION

COVID-19 has become a global phenonmenon which attracts a lot of concerns from
the whole society, particularly about its impacts on all aspects of human life.

The economic impacts of COVID-19 were seen in almost all industries in Vietnam,
among which tourism seemed to suffer the earliest and most severely. In the North of
Vietnam, tourism with its feature could not stand being damaged by decreases in both
demand and supply sides, partly resulted from the measures of government to fight
agaist COVID-19 pandemic. In the first 3 months of 2020, international tourists
declined, almost stopped coming to the area, whereas domestic visitors were also
concerned and hesitant to make travel decisions; supply decreased sharply as
businesses closed and activities were cancelled.

As the situation is becoming better and better inside the country by the time this paper
is written, actions should be taken immediately before it is too late to recover this
“spearhead” industry in the area of interest as well as in Vietnam in general. Each
person is responsible for the recovery of this industry so as to contribute to the welfare
of the nation.
 43

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