Grasping the Future Page 1

[strategy] [innovation] [futures]

Grasping the Future

Comparing Scenarios to
other Techniques

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Grasping the Future Page 2

Introduction 3

How Scenario Planning Works 3

20 Approaches, 5 Categories 5

Counter Punchers 6

Extrapolators 8

Pattern Analysts 9

Goal Analysts 10

Intuitors 10

Five Dimensions of Comparison 11

Directed vs. Emergent 12

Narrow Scope vs. Broad Scope 13

Mathematical vs. Non-Mathematical 13

Predictive vs. Learning/Understanding 13

Subjective vs. Objective 14

Advantages of Scenarios 15

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Grasping the Future
Theses of this paper
Understanding the future is
crucial
Complete understanding is
impossible
There are five types of
approach to understanding the
future
Scenario planning/learning
has strong advantages in a
dynamic economy
All five types of methods
work well together, and should
complement scenario planning
Scenario planning should be
integrated into corporate
strategy processes
Page 3
Introduction
It has become commonplace to hear that change is
accelerating. Mention of Moore’s Law is now likely to
elicit a bored yawn. The accelerating pace of
technological and cultural change has become so
commonplace that it is hard to find it shocking. Yet it has
never been more important to confront the fact of
accelerated change for anyone constructing strategy in
the information economy. Executives in high tech
industries are used to seeing entire industries transformed
by new technologies and new business models. They
understand disruptive innovation and the innovator’s
dilemma. But no industry is safe anymore as the IT
revolution (and the biotech revolution, the materials
science revolution, the communications revolution, and
so on) continues to infiltrate almost every aspect of the
economy. Even in the high tech arena, awareness of
radical change stays well ahead of the ability to cope with
it.
So how can we best prepare for the changing conditions
of the future? At least 20 different methods offer
themselves as guides to tomorrow. This paper will classify
these approaches by arraying them along five
dimensions. We will focus on scenario planning (or
scenario learning) and its advantages and disadvantages
as compared to the alternatives. No one approach works
in every situation or provides a full picture of the future.
Scenario planning (SP) is especially helpful in our
dynamic information economy, but is best used as the
core of a range of techniques applied in concert. This
paper is not intended as a manual for conducting a
scenario planning exercise. In order to identify SP’s
comparative advantages we need to understand how it
works.
How Scenario Planning Works
The future is inherently unknowable. Paradoxically, if we
were to be told by an omniscient being what was going to
happen a year from now based on our current beliefs
and desires, that forecast would immediately become
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false as our plans would change. The future may be

unknowable but it is not completely unknowable. We can
forecast some aspects of the future with varying degrees
of confidence. We can set aside some possible futures as
unlikely and others as plausible and make contingency
plans. We do this whenever we invest, buy insurance, or
put on a safety belt. Unlike some other approaches to
understanding the future, scenario planning does not
pretend that we can predict the actual future. Instead it
builds on existing knowledge to develop several plausible
future scenarios. These can then be used to construct
robust strategies—strategies that will play out well in
several possible futures.

To be able to test the robustness of strategies, we will

need to ensure that each scenario differs substantially
from the others. The goal should not be to make any one
scenario completely plausible (though each should follow
“A portfolio of with strict logic from its assumptions about driving forces).
distinct scenarios The actual future is likely to contain elements of several
scenarios. The scenarios may seem exaggerated because
allows us to highlight
they take differing logics further than we might think
major underlying plausible. (Though actual events have a way of upsetting
forces that will form our beliefs about plausibility.) But by constructing logical
the future.” yet distinct scenarios of future worlds, we can more
powerfully test the hypotheses implicit in existing and
alternative strategies. Scenarios are not about successfully
predicting particular events, but about making better
decisions in the present, and knowing when to change
strategy if events move onto a different track.

In brief, scenario planning involves just a few steps. It

begins by identifying a specific issue or decision. This
might be a narrow decision such as whether to increase
marketing of a particular product, or it might be a broad
strategic decision about the positioning of the company.
In order to understand how decisions might play out, we
need to identify the main driving forces already at work in
the present. It is these forces, along with possible future
events, which will shape the future. Driving forces of
differing kinds must be considered. These will include

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! technological driving forces (such as the growth

in broadband access or the development of
proteomics)
! economic forces (such as trends in international
trade, the availability of skilled workers), social
forces (demographics, value issues, lifestyle)
! political issues (shifts in the political balance of
power, new regulations, and anti-trust litigation)

“Having worked Once the driving forces have been identified, we need to
separate out the elements that we have good reason to
through the believe unalterable, leaving us with the uncertain factors.
scenarios, we will These uncertain factors will be critically important when
have effectively considering the focal issue. In each scenario plot, the
rehearsed responses driving forces, unchangeable elements, and uncertain
to critically changed factors play out in a logical manner. We will then find
conditions, and we that some decisions appear to work in all of the futures
we have envisioned. Those are the decisions that we can
will spot those implement with confidence, knowing that they are robust.
changes more Others will work in only one or two possible futures.
quickly.” These decisions present difficult choices. We may hedge
our bets, or proceed full force but now with a careful eye
on early warning signals that tell us that we are heading
into an alternate scenario. This last point makes it clear
that scenarios are not only for choosing an initial
decision. They also play a vital role in monitoring the
continued fit of a decision or strategy with changing
conditions.

20 Approaches, 5 Categories

In describing categories of methods for future planning, I

draw heavily on an excellent framework created by John
Vanston of Technology Futures, Inc. While not complete,
this typology includes most of the significant methods and
organizes them in coherent groups. All quotations in this
section are from “Techniques & Methodologies Employed
by Technology Futures, Inc” by John Vanston.1 I have
added my own thoughts on how these categories relate
to scenario planning as well as examples, but the
framework remains that of TFI. Methods of
understanding, predicting, or preparing for the future
can be grouped into five categories.

1
Technology Futures, Inc., 2001, www.tfi.com

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Cutting across this classification are five dimensions

along which the techniques vary. By placing scenario
planning in the context of the five categories and then
comparing the techniques along the five dimensions, we
can form a clearer idea of the nature of scenario
planning. This is a key to knowing when and how the
method can most effectively be applied.

Counter Punchers

Scenario planning fits in this category, but shares the

space with scanning, monitoring, tracking, and
simulations (including Monte Carlo Models). Although
“Counter Punchers” is the original term from the TFI
“Scanning will paper, I prefer “Emerging Pattern Monitors (EPM)”, but
provide raw material will use the original term to avoid confusion. Counter
for the driving forces Puncher techniques share the view that the future is not
of scenarios. easily predictable, that it arises from the interaction of
numerous forces, and that single-track forecasts do not fit
Monitoring and
the dynamic reality of the environment’s development.
tracking will be The strategic planning process must remain highly flexible
crucial parts of the since our trajectory into the future will continually alter
implementation of while being buffeted by unexpected events and
SP.” interactions of forces. In most cases, the exact shape of
the future cannot be foreseen. Our best way of preparing
for the future is to carefully monitor technological,
cultural, political, and economic developments and to
discern an extensive range of trends, actions and events.

Three of the Counter Puncher techniques—Scanning,

Monitoring and Tracking—can be used in isolation. They
can also provide important inputs into the scenario
planning process. These three techniques form a
continuum in terms of degree of focus, and so can be
applied at different points in the SP process. Scanning
casts the widest net, aiming to scoop up events or trends
of any kind that may impact an organization’s plans. For
example: Explosive growth in demands for bandwidth.
Monitoring involves following trends and series of events
identified by scanning in order to determine whether the
trends are waxing or waning. For example: Is SONET

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continuing to be replaced? Tracking focuses more tightly

on a particular area of development. For example: Is the
uptake of all-optical networks accelerating within the
broader trend of optical networking?

Obviously, any of these three approaches can contribute

to scenario planning. The fifth Counter Puncher
technique, simulation, attempts to formalize numerous
forces shaping the future by assigning them probabilities.
Simulation appeals to the scientific mind. It offers an
apparently rigorous approach to determining the shape
of the future. However, the dismal record of econometrics
in economic forecasting suggests that simulations may
best be used as a way of generating scenarios, before the
rest of the SP process is implemented. Simulation results
will be sensitive to the assumptions built in. The
appearance of mathematical rigor in simulation, except
in narrowly circumscribed applications, is a dangerous
illusion. As an input to or supplement to scenario
planning, simulations can add value.

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Extrapolators

Inexorable driving forces, usually technological in nature,

shape the future in continuous and largely predictable
“In considerable
ways. The future is seen as a continuation of the past.
contrast to Counter Although scenario planning relies heavily on driving
Punchers, forces, it differs in two ways. Firstly, by combining multiple
Extrapolators see the driving forces and considering their interactions, and also
future as a logical, by projecting multiple futures rather than a single
well-ordered extrapolated forecast.
extension of the
Extrapolators fit into five types: Technology Trend
past.” Analysis derives from the belief that technological
advances follow an exponential process of improvement.
Clearly Moore’s Law fits with this approach. The results of
technology trend analyses are quantitative and precise
predictions. In very narrow domains this method can be
remarkably accurate, but it breaks down when applied
more broadly without considering other trends not on the
analyst’s radar screen. A more sophisticated form of
technology trend analysis recognizes that technological
advance sometimes takes place at a rate different than a
single exponential curve. (Most individual curves
eventually form an S shape as the underlying driving
force runs out of steam.) Instead, as one exponential
advance begins to taper off, a new one takes over. This
phenomenon has allowed us to increase the computer
power available per dollar by a factor of one trillion over
the last century. As silicon technology reaches physical
limits, we can already see replacement trends in
biological computing, quantum computing, and optical
computing. Spotting these replacement exponential
curves comes not from technology trend analysis, but
from scanning, monitoring and theoretical projections of
fundamental physical processes.

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Besides Technology Trend Analysis, some of the other

Extrapolators include:

! Fisher-Pry Analysis—a mathematical technique for

forecasting the replacement of older by newer
technologies
! Gompertz Analysis—similar to Fisher-Pry and used
to project adoption of consumer products
! Growth Limit Analysis—another mathematical
technique used to foresee the path that maturing
technologies will approach development limits
! Learning Curve techniques, which are based on
the well-understood economic effect of learning
on the improvement of processes, and can be
helpful in determining performance targets
especially in the middle stages of the development
of a process or technology.

“Pattern analysts Pattern Analysts

believe that
Pattern Analysts (or “Cyclical Analysts”, as I prefer to call
fundamental human
them) seem to have been inspired by the German
drives, combined with philosopher Nietzsche’s doctrine of Eternal Recurrence.
irresistible feedback We can therefore understand the future by relating
mechanisms, will analogous patterns of events from the past. The four
mean the future will types of Pattern Analysts are:
repeat identifiable
! Analogy Analysts, who attempt to apply several
cycles and patterns
analogical past patterns to yield several possible
from the past.” futures rather than a single forecast

! Precursor Trend Analysis forecasts consumer

applications of new developments from advanced
applications by applying a time lag

! Morphological Matrices is a method for

discovering new products and processes by
combining features of existing ones. This may help
predict advances already under development by
competitors

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! Feedback Models account for the interaction of a

variety of factors within a mathematical model,
where the factors affect one another in
feedback loops. Although I have classified this
as a Pattern analysis, it could also be viewed as
a particularly sophisticated, multi-factorial
extrapolative method.

Goal Analysts
“In so far as Goal
Analysis yields input This category includes a broad collection of techniques
about trends and including Content Analysis, Impact Analysis, Patent
driving forces, it can Analysis, and Stakeholders’ Analysis. What each of these
agrees on, more or less, is that future outcomes will be
supply raw
shaped by the actions of various agents. Since these
information for agents, whether individuals or organizations, shape the
development in future, we can best see ahead by examining the goals of
scenario planning.” these active agents, especially those capable of creating
or sustaining trends. Of the four techniques in this group,
Stakeholders’ Analysis may be the most useful. Simply
counting the frequency of mention of issues in the media
(Content Analysis) or simple counts of patents may
provide weak or misleading information.

Intuitors

This category includes the Delphi Survey, Nominal Group

Conferencing, Structured and Unstructured Interviews,
and Technology Advantage Management™, a method
developed by Technology Futures, Inc. Unlike
Extrapolators and Pattern Analysts in particular,
practitioners of this type of approach do not believe the
“Some of these
future can be projected by any “rational” or directed
techniques, especially approach. The future emerges from a complex and ever-
Nominal Group shifting convergence of powerful trends, individual
Conferencing and actions, and happenstance. Therefore, the best way to
Structured and grasp the future is to gather information broadly then
Unstructured allow unconscious or intuitive information processing to
yield actionable insights. Each technique uses a specific
Interviews can play
method of networking the information gathering and
an important role in intuitive processing of groups of persons. The Delphi
scenario planning. “ Survey, for example, gathers experts from various fields in
an anonymous and iterative series of forecasts. The result

ManyWorlds, Inc.
Grasping the Future
Five Dimensions of Comparison
Directed vs. Emergent
Narrow Scope vs. Broad Scope
Mathematical vs. Non-
Mathematical
Predictive vs.
Learning/Understanding
Subjective vs. Objective
Page 11
may be convergence on one likely future, or it may
highlight important developments or reveal basic
differences in views, some of which have not previously
received sufficient attention. The more complex,
protracted forms of SP make extensive use of interviews.
Some of those interviewed will be stakeholders, so these
two techniques will then combine to add depth to the
early scenario preparation process.
In going through these 20 techniques in five categories,
we can see that there should be no issue of scenario
planning versus other techniques. While I will argue that
SP has strong advantages in the information economy,
many of the other techniques can supplement SP and
feed in raw material at various points in the scenario
development process. Extrapolation techniques can assist
in clarifying the precise trajectories of driving forces. Goal
Analysis can help point out to the scenario planner many
sources of trends, events and potential trigger points.
Intuitive convergence can act as a dragnet, pulling in
wide-ranging views to help construct alternate scenarios.
The intuitive element will fit much better with SP than will
the convergence aspect, since SP requires ending up with
multiple distinct scenarios. While Pattern techniques may
threaten to limit the creative aspect of SP, Feedback
Models could be plugged into scenarios so long as they
do not operate in isolation.
Five Dimensions of Comparison
The 20 techniques in five groups identified here can be
further characterized by an additional five-way typology.
This second typology cuts across the former grouping,
yielding more understanding about the relative nature
and use of scenario planning compared to other
methods. The five dimensions along which we can place
the 20 techniques are as follows:
1. Directed vs. Emergent
2. Narrow Scope vs. Broad Scope
3. Mathematical vs. Non-Mathematical
4. Predictive vs. Learning/Understanding
5. Subjective vs. Objective
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Before explaining these distinctions, it is important to

realize that many techniques will not be purely one or the
other. Each of these five qualities represents a dimension
and particular techniques will be found at various places
along that dimension. Such a point should be obvious,
but the prevalence of either/or, black-or-white thinking
makes this point worth stressing. Further, since some of
the 20 techniques are composed of multiple stages,
different parts of each technique may be positioned at
different points along a dimension.

Directed vs. Emergent

“Directed approaches Most writers discussing methods such as extrapolation use

the term “rational” and contrast such approaches with
usually work best in Intuitors or Counter Punchers. This implies that the latter
narrowly are not rational. This terminology is misleading since the
circumscribed non-rational processes can involve tremendous conscious
situations where thinking and reasoning. The term “rational”, when
external factors are applied to means taken to reach a goal, implies “effective
unlikely to disrupt and appropriate”. Since “non-rational” techniques can
be just as effective as “rational” techniques, this kind of
salient trends.” labeling is unfortunate. Instead, I make a distinction
between directed and emergent, usually described as
“rational”. Extrapolators used a highly directed approach
involving linear or exponential functions. Some forms of
Pattern Analysis can be predominantly directed, especially
Precursor Trend Analysis and Feedback Models. Directed
approaches look at one or two trends or forces and let
those drive forecasts. Directed approaches usually work
best in narrowly circumscribed situations where external
factors are unlikely to disrupt salient trends.

Emergent approaches can be highly structured and may

actually incorporate directed elements within a wider
context. Although most forms of Pattern Analysis are
“Extrapolation results directed, Morphological Matrices in a limited sense
in a single “correct” display emergence by combining and recombining
product or process functions to uncover new
future. Scenario opportunities. The paradigmatic cases of emergent
planning results in techniques are the Intuitors, as well as Simulations and
multiple plausible Scenario Planning within the Counter Punchers group.
futures.” The latter two techniques are

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especially interesting in that they can incorporate highly

directed extrapolative elements. But these directed
elements are combined and cross-bred with other parts of
the SP process to yield clearly emergent results.

Narrow Scope vs. Broad Scope

Scenario planning, when done well, has broad scope.

The final output may be a set of scenarios that focus
narrowly on a specific market, decision, or strategy, but
the process that crystallized scenarios drew on far-flung
trends and facts. Other Counter Puncher methods, in
particular scanning, can have broad scope, while
tracking will be narrow in scope. Extrapolation typically
“Math is a powerful
has very narrow scope and its reliability declines as its
tool when it can be scope expands. The optimal degree of scope for any
applied. But forcing method will depend on the particular application. The
its application in scope of experts involved in Delphi Surveys and Nominal
domains where Group Conferencing will mirror the scope of the issue
qualitative factors under examination.
cannot reasonably be Mathematical vs. Non-Mathematical
quantified brings
only a false sense of Scenario planning, unlike simulations (in the same
Counter Puncher group) generally makes little use of
precision.”
mathematics. Obviously the Extrapolators will be the most
mathematical approach. The minimal use of mathematics
in scenario planning should not be taken to detract from
“The point of SP is its utility.
not to find a creative,
Predictive vs. Learning/Understanding
sophisticated way of
justifying existing Scenario planning is not a tool for prediction. This
beliefs about the distinguishes SP in an important way from many of the
future. It should other techniques mentioned here. These techniques aim
challenge those to yield a unique forecast for the future with varying
degrees of confidence. Simple extrapolations, such as
beliefs, reveal
embodied in Moore’s Law or Gilder’s Law of the
previously ignored Telecosm (bandwidth doubles every nine months), make
possibilities, and substantially precise and quantitative predictions.
stimulate strategic Simulations, Delphi Surveys, and other techniques also
thinking both typically yield one image of the future, though with less
defensive and confidence and mathematical exactness than
extrapolative methods.
offensive.”

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In contrast, scenario planning constructs several possible

futures. Scenario planning experts often sensibly urge the
construction of four scenarios rather than three. (More
than four is likely to become less usable.) Why not three?
The purpose of scenario planning is to learn about
current driving forces, to anticipate alternate futures, and
to construct contingency strategies. If exactly three
scenarios are devised, executives will likely choose two
“Most SP exercises, highly divergent futures with a middle scenario that they
especially competitive regard as highly likely. This middle scenario then
becomes the “official future”, even if only implicitly.
analysis scenarios,
Creating an array of four or five scenarios reduces this
will incorporate dangerous tendency. In this context, it is interesting to
extensive note that recent work in scenario planning has preferred
consideration of the description “scenario learning”. This does a better job
subjective factors.” at emphasizing the role of scenario exercises in
enhancing understanding and the importance of building
these procedures into ongoing corporate strategy
processes.

Subjective vs. Objective

“Attention to
subjective factors may This dimension is related to the Directed vs. Emergent
uncover what lies and to the Mathematical vs. Non-Mathematical
beneath apparently dimensions, but is not entirely subsumed by either.
Objective approaches are those that focus on impersonal
inexorable trends.
forces and trends. Extrapolators and Pattern Analysts
This can make it adopt an objective approach to forecasting, with the
easier to detect the former being more mathematical than the latter.
breakdown of widely Subjective or “personal” approaches do not mean
assumed trends arbitrary or unstructured. Subjective approaches in the
ahead of sense intended here refer to a method where beliefs,
desires, actions, and perceptions of people and
competitors.”
institutions are considered important when constructing
forecasts. Delphi Surveys and Nominal Group
Conferencing may seem obvious examples of subjective
methods, since they involve gathering ideas from many
people. While this is a perfectly legitimate use of the term,
these methods are not necessarily very subjective in the
sense I am using. If Delphi Survey participants primarily
rely on objective factors and extrapolations, the process
itself will not be significantly subjective in the present
sense.

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Goal Analysts of all flavors provide far better exemplars

“The New Economy of the subjective approach. Scenario planning can be
provides an more or less subjective or objective depending on the
domain to which it is being applied. The flexibility of
especially fertile
scenario planning in being able to incorporate elements
ground for scenario of many other techniques, whether objective or subjective,
planning is one of its great strengths.
approaches.”
Advantages of Scenarios

Before noting the relative strengths of scenario planning,

we should recognize that even this inclusive approach has
limitations. Sometimes other techniques should be
chosen. Scenario planning is resisted by some executives
because they are afraid of a massive commitment of time
and attention to the process. They have seen enormous
scenario efforts at other companies, or have been
repelled by the incredibly detailed and intensive SP
procedures set forth in some books on the topic. Such
concern is understandable, especially at a time of rapid
change. However, scenario planning need not resemble
an interplanetary mission. We can note that over-exertion
“SP comes into its is a real but avoidable danger. In some cases simple
own in situations of extrapolations or other quick methods may be all that is
rapid change, needed. In some narrow, technical domains, SP may be
incursions from less appropriate than methods such as Fisher-Pry
Analysis, Learning Curve approaches, and Morphological
international
Matrices.
competitors,
technological In slow-moving industries where developments are
innovations, business incremental, competitors well understood, industry
process innovations, boundaries well-defined, and where governments limit
unpredictably shifting international competition, scenario planning has less
value except in narrowly-focused applications.
consumer tastes
(resulting from Discontinuous innovations are all around us. The
increased exposure to mightiest of companies like Microsoft find their vital Web
global cultural infrastructure failing unexpectedly. Record companies
information), and slowly awaken to the threat to their business models
governments posed by the inexorable spread of digitized media. Even
parts of the information economy that seem to follow
scrambling to update
predictable, extrapolative trends such as the
their outmoded semiconductor industry need scenario planning. Even if
policies.” Moore’s Law continues to hold (though the doubling time

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has been falling from 24 to 18 to 12 months), altered

growth rates in other parts of the computing value chain
will have an impact. If bus speeds, graphics processors,
or bandwidth speeds lag or lead semiconductor progress,
this could affect sales and the profitability of various
business lines. (Intel’s move into Internet data centers may
reflect this.) But Moore’s venerable law may blow up at
any time. Right now we are seeing the rapid proliferation
of distributed computing. This does not accelerate chip
speeds, but does network them into virtual
supercomputers of unprecedented power. At the same
time, scientists are making intriguing progress in obscure
new computing technologies such as quantum computing
and DNA computing that may push computing power off
the charts, at least in some applications. Scenario
planning will not foresee all possibilities but, better than
any other method, does help executives prepare for the
obsolescence of their plans.
“Working through
When conditions change—new technologies fly in from
scenario planning left field, new business models or processes emerge,
processes compels global markets transform, customer tastes shift—
executives to develop executives will be far better prepared to respond quickly
rich cognitive models and confidently. Without having worked through alternate
of alternate futures.” scenarios, business leaders in these situations are apt to
make one or more mistakes. They may jump on the next
big thing without considering long-term viability; they may
freeze into inaction, paralyzed by utterly unfamiliar
territory; or they may make essentially the right moves but
too slowly or without sufficient regard to implementation
and integration of new technologies and processes with
the existing business architecture.

For instance, businesses were correct to see enterprise

resource planning, supply chain management, and
customer relationship management software as crucial to
the future. But too many companies thought they could
simply graft on new information technologies to existing
business architectures. They did not consider channel
conflicts, threats to sales forces, executive resistance to
flattened hierarchies, the challenges of reworking
business processes, and so on. They bought into a
technological fix without a sound scenario-based
implementation strategy. Horror stories arising from these

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mistakes will probably induce excessive caution in the

“Scenario planning is face of new rounds of competitively essential IT
almost unmatched in innovations. Scenario planning, by bringing alternate
futures into focus, can bring fear of the new down to
its ability to raise
manageable levels.
new ideas and
possibilities.” As discussed above, it can incorporate the best elements
of many of the other techniques—including scanning,
extrapolative techniques, analogy analysis, precursor
trend monitoring, tracking, technology trend analysis and
other analysis, all kinds of goal analysis, and Intuitors
(especially nominal group conferencing, and interviews. It
includes both objective and subjective elements, it
embraces directed elements within an emergent process,
and it can range from narrow to broad in scope. Some
techniques utilize just one cognitive process (such as
“Scenario planning strictly mathematical forms of extrapolation). SP stands
above most other approaches in delivering multiple
combines critical,
futures. This is the best way to test the robustness of
convergent thinking strategies. Though this is a topic for a separate paper, I
with creative, will note that this feature makes scenario planning a
divergent thinking.” natural fit with another relatively new and powerful
planning tool—real options analysis. Traditional DCF
analysis assumed a single most likely future. This reduced
the robustness of strategy. Scenarios can be embodied in
real options analyses to yield quantitative guidance for
decision-making.

Finally, it bears emphasizing that scenario planning is not

a do-it—then-forget-it technique. Scenario planning is a
“Internalizing learning process, and is probably better termed “scenario
scenario learning into learning”. The SP process involves identifying driving
forces and trends and then continuously monitoring them.
the business
Without monitoring, some benefits of scenarios remain,
architecture and since executives will at least have thought through
strategic processes is alternative strategic responses. But timing is vital in an
crucial to extracting economy increasingly riding on the rapid currents of
the full value of the information technology across the planet. Only by
approach.” continual monitoring of the identified warning signals can
we know that we are veering toward one scenario rather
than another, or that elements of various scenarios are
combining in new ways.

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Exactly how that is to be accomplished, and exactly how

best to construct scenarios rapidly and effectively, has not
been the purpose of this paper. The goal here has been
to map out the wide array of future forecasting and
preparation methodologies and to uncover the relative
strengths of scenario planning in a dynamic economy.

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