Stock Update

Reliance Industries Ltd

Retail to drive next leg of growth
Powered by the Sharekhan 3R Research Philosophy Oil & Gas Sharekhan code: RELIANCE Company Update

3R MATRIX + = - Summary
Š Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) eyes a 3x growth in retail revenues in 3-5 years, implying a
Right Sector (RS) ü revenue CAGR of 32% over FY21-26E and an estimated EBITDA of >Rs20,000 crore. EV/
EBITDA of 30x would mean retail EV of ~$80-85 bn (vs. our valuation of $68 billion).
Right Quality (RQ) ü Š JioPhone Next’s launch would sustain strong subscriber addition (large-scale migration of
30 crore 2G customers) and potential ARPU hike to help gain revenue market share. Ramp-
up of broadband services to drive growth for Jio.
Right Valuation (RV) ü Š Recovery in Singapore GRM to $4.9/bbl could help finalise potential deal in oil-to-chemical
(O2C) with Saudi Aramco. Strengthening of balance sheet would support inorganic growth
+ Positive = Neutral - Negative and new energy investment.
Š We maintain a Buy on RIL with a revised SoTP-based PT of Rs. 2,700 given our expectation
What has changed in 3R MATRIX robust 27% PAT CAGR over FY21-24E. Further value unlocking in digital and retail businesses
(with a likely IPO) are key catalysts for RIL.
Old New
RIL’s management aims to grow the retail business by ~3x in next 3-5 years, which indicates
RS  strong 32% revenue CAGR for retail business over FY21-FY26E and drive next leg of growth
and valuation re-rating. In addition, Jio is likely to witness a telecom revenue market share
RQ  gain led by continued strong subscriber additions (likely launch of JioPhone Next in Nov’21)
and potential tariff hike. Also, earnings outlook for O2C business is improving given a sharp
RV  recovery in Singapore complex GRMs at ~$3.4/bbl in Q2FY22QTD and the same could
support finalization of deal with Saudi Aramco. Clean energy investment of $10 billion could
create long-term value and add $30 billion to valuations (not factored in our valuation).
Reco/View Change
Š Retail on hyper growth trajectory: RIL is focused on tapping Google’s cloud and AI
Reco: Buy  capabilities to scale up the retail business and aim to grow retail segment’s revenue by at
least 3x in the next 3-5 years, which implies very high CAGR of 32% over FY21-26E. RIL’s
CMP: Rs. 2,394 aims to bring 1 crore merchants in next 3 years through leveraging JioMart and become top
10 retailer globally. We believe that a high growth outlook warrants high multiple and thus
Price Target: Rs. 2,700 á we increase value for retail business to Rs. 662/share.
á Upgrade  Maintain â Downgrade Š Reliance JIO – 4G smart phone launch and potential tariff hike to drive growth: RIL has
recently announced to launch JioPhone Next (a fully-loaded 4G smartphone with entire
Android operating system developed by JIO-Google) at affordable price. The launch is
Company details slated for November (a slight delay from initial timeline of September) and could lead to
Market cap: Rs. 1,517,599 cr large-scale migration of 30 crore 2G users and aid continuous strong subscriber addition
along with revenue market share gain for Jio. A potential tariff hike (amid weak third telecom
52-week high/low: Rs. 2,480/1,830 player) and ramp-up of home and enterprise broadband to drive robust earnings growth
for Jio.
NSE volume: Š New energy business – A step toward clean energy with potential to create long-term
78 lakh
(No of shares) value: RIL has announced a total capital outlay of Rs. 75,000 crore (~$10 billion) for new
energy and material business over next three years. It plans to invest Rs. 60,000 crore on
BSE code: 500325 four Giga factories and Rs. 15,000 crore in the value chain, etc in the next three years and
aims to establish at least 100GW of solar energy by 2030 (22% of India’s RE target of 450GW).
NSE code: RELIANCE A potential PLI scheme for electrolysers could reduce capex for a proposed electrolyser giga
factory, while investment in clean energy could create long-term value.
Free float:
334.1 cr
(No of shares) Our Call
Valuation – Maintain Buy with a revised SoTP-based PT of Rs. 2,700: We expect continued
Shareholding (%) recovery in RIL’s earnings led by cyclical recovery in O2C margins, gradual telecom tariff
hike, high growth in retail and ramp-up of new revenue streams (broadband services and new
Promoters 50.6 commerce). A potential deal in O2C business and further value unlocking in the digital and retail
businesses (with a likely IPO for consumer business in next few years) are key catalysts for the
FII 25.1 stock and would add to shareholders’ returns in the coming years. Hence, we maintain a Buy
rating on RIL with a revised PT SoTP-based PT of Rs. 2,700 (reflects higher valuation across
DII 13.1 retail, O2C and Jio).

Others 11.2 Key Risks

Lower-than-expected refining and petrochemical margins in case global capacity additions
Price chart surpass incremental demand. Slower-than-expected pace of subscriber addition and ramp-up
of broadband services and slowdown in retail business amid COVID-19 could affect earnings
2500 and valuations.
2400
2300
2200
2100 Valuation (Consolidated) Rs cr
2000
1900
Particulars FY2021 FY2022E FY2023E FY2024E
1800 Revenues 4,66,924 5,64,755 6,90,232 7,68,172
Sep-20

Sep-21
Jan-21

May-21

OPM (%) 17.3 19.9 19.4 20.1

Adjusted PAT 43,486 58,316 74,381 88,732
Price performance Adjusted EPS (Rs.) 73.5 86.2 110.0 131.2
y-o-y change (%) -1.9 17.4 27.5 19.3
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m
PER (x) 32.6 27.8 21.8 18.2
Absolute 11 7 16 6
EV/EBIDTA (x) 17.1 12.3 10.3 9.0
Relative to
5 -4 -1 -48 RoCE (%) 7.0 9.3 10.4 11.0
Sensex
RoNW (%) 6.2 7.3 8.1 8.3
Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg
Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

September 20, 2021 2

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Retail business – ambitious target to grow revenue by 3x over next 3-5 years
India’s retail market sector to clock a CAGR of 8% over FY20-FY26E and reach $1.3 trillion by FY2026E. Within
that, organised retail is likely to grow at higher rate of 16% as its share is slated to expand to 18% (from 11%
currently) and reach ~$250 billion by FY26E. We believe that Reliance Retail’s market share (across formats –
grocery, fashion & lifestyle and customer electronics) would increase to ~15-20% over next 4-5 years and margin
to expand with an estimated retail EBITDA of >Rs20,000 crore (from Rs. 8,483 crore excluding investment income
in FY2021). EV/EBITDA multiple of 28-30x would mean a retail business EV of ~$80-85 billion.

Management aims 3x growth retail revenue over next 3-5 years

500,000 461,454
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
Rs crore

250,000
200,000 162,936 153,818
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
FY20 FY21 FY26E
Retail revenue

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

JioPhone Next launch – to help sustain high subscriber addition and market share gain for Jio
RIL announced the launch of 4G smartphone – JioPhone Next by November 2021 (a slight delay from initial
launch timeline of September 2021) at an affordable price to tap 30 crore 2G customers in India. However, the
exact pricing details of JioPhone Next is yet to disclosed by the company but the expectation are that it would
be priced lower than the entry-level smartphone price of Rs5,000-7,500. JioPhone Next is a fully loaded 4G
smartphone with entire Android operating system developed by JIO-Google. Additionally, Jio has purchased Rs.
57,123 crore worth 4G spectrum and thus Jio network can accommodate 20 crore additional subscribers. This
would help large-scale migration of 2G customers to 4G and aid strong subscriber addition for RIL along with an
improvement in ARPUs (as tariff hikes are expected given the weak competitive position of Vodafone Idea).
Jio’s leadership position in digital connectivity and strategic partnership with global players would transform it to
leading technology & platforms company. The next leg of earnings growth for Jio would be driven by potential
ARPU hike, subscriber additions, development of new revenue streams (home & enterprise broadband, cloud
computing and block chain). With this, we see the valuation of Jio Platforms for RIL’s stake at ~$89 billion.

Telecom subscriber marker share

Active subscriber market share

Others, 5%

Bharti Airtel, 35%

Reliance Jio, 35%

Vodafone Idea, 25%

Source: TRAI, Industry report, Sharekhan Research

September 20, 2021 3

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Telecom revenue market share

Revenue market share

100% 8% 8%
9% 9% 10% 9%
80%
34% 38% 38% 40% 37% 39%
60%
26% 21% 20% 20% 18% 18%
40%

20% 32% 32% 32% 36% 35%

31%
0%
Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22
Bharti Airtel Vodafone Idea Reliance Jio Others

Source: TRAI, Industry report, Sharekhan Research

Cyclical recovery in GRM to support potential deal in O2C business

Singapore complex GRM has recovered sharply to $4.9/bbl currently and has averaged $3.4/bbl in Q2FY22QTD
led by improving demand, declining petroleum product inventories and refinery outages (3% of global production)
in Gulf of Mexico due to hurricane Ida. This would not only improve earnings outlook for standalone O2C business
but also support finalisation of potential minority sake sale deal in O2C business with Saudi Aramco.
Singapore complex GRM recovers sharply to mid-cycle level of $4-5/bbl

7.0 6.5
6.0 4.9
5.0
4.0 3.5 3.4
3.0 2.4
$/bbl

1.6 1.8
2.0 1.2 1.2
1.0 0.0
0.0
-1.0
-2.0 -0.9
Q2FY22QTD
Q1FY20

Q2FY20

Q3FY20

Q4FY20

Q1FY21

Q2FY21

Q3FY21

Q4FY21

Q1FY22

Singapore complex GRM Current

Source: Industry reports; Sharekhan Research

New energy and material initiative investment plan of $10 billion

In its recent AGM, RIL announced total capital outlay of Rs. 75,000 crore (~$10 billion) for new energy and
material business over next three years. It would invest Rs .60,000 crore on four Giga factories and Rs15,000
crore in value chain, etc, in the next three years and aim to establish at least 100GW of solar energy by 2030
(22% of India’s RE target of 450GW).
Under its renewable energy (RE) strategy plan, RIL plans to develop the Dhirubhai Ambani Green Energy
Giga Complex on 5,000 acres in Jamnagar. The company has three-part renewable energy plan.
Part 1 - Four Giga Factories: 1) integrated solar photovoltaic module factory, 2) advanced energy storage
battery factory, 3) green hydrogen — electrolyser factory and 4) fuel cell factory.
Part 2 - Investment of Rs. 15,000 crore in value chain, partnerships and future technologies, including upstream
and downstream industries.
Part 3 - Plans to build Renewable Energy Project Management and Construction Division and Renewable
Energy Project Finance Division.
We believe that RIL would collaborate with global leaders in the clean energy space for technology and build
large projects for economies of scale. In addition, the government could come up with supportive policies (like
PLI scheme for electrolyser) and same would reduce overall capital cost and create long-term value for RIL.

September 20, 2021 4

 Stock Update
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Financials in charts

Retail revenue to clock high growth on market gain Jio subscriber addition to remain strong
350,000 600 526
486 506
300,000 500 426
250,000
400
Rs crore

200,000
150,000 300
100,000 200
50,000 100
0
0
FY21

FY22E

FY23E

FY24E

FY21

FY22E

FY23E

FY24E
Retail Revenue Jio subscribers (million)
Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

EBITDA to clock 24% CAGR over FY21-FY24E PAT to clock 27% CAGR over FY21-FY24E
200,000 100,000 88,732
154,444
134,207 80,000 74,381
150,000
112,310 58,316
Rs crore

60,000
Rs crore

100,000 80,737 43,486

40,000
50,000
20,000
0
0
FY21

FY22E

FY23E

FY24E

FY21

FY22E

FY23E

FY24E
EBITDA PAT
Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

RoE Trend RoCE Trend

9.0 8.3 12.0 11.0

8.1 10.4
11.0
8.0 7.3 10.0 9.3
9.0
7.0 6.2 8.0 7.0
%
%

6.0 7.0
6.0
5.0 5.0
4.0
4.0
FY21

FY22E

FY23E

FY24E
FY21

FY22E

FY23E

FY24E

RoE RoCE
Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

September 20, 2021 5

 Stock Update
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Outlook and Valuation

n Sector view - Indian retail market to grow strongly; telecom to benefit from potential increase in APRU while
GRM likely to recover in FY2022
India’s retail sector is expected to clock a CAGR of 8% over FY20-FY26 and reach $1.3 trillion by FY26. Within that,
organised retail is likely to grow at higher rate of 16% as its share is slated to expand to 18% (from 11% currently) and
reach ~$250 billion by FY26. India’s telecom sector has consolidated to only four players (three private players
and one government-owned telecom company) from more than eight players earlier. With this, we believe that
pricing war is largely over for telecom companies and ARPU is expected to improve going forward. We believe that
higher bundling with home entertainment, partnerships with content providers and increasing data consumption
due to work from home could be major drivers for price hikes going ahead. Additionally, the focus to switch 2G
customers to 4G with likely introduction of affordable smartphones also bodes well for telecom players. We
expect refining margins to recover over FY2022-FY2023 led by a likely improvement in demand for petroleum
products and decline in product inventories.
n Company outlook - Downstream margins to recover; consumer biz to drive next leg of growth
We expect RIL’s GRMs to recover over FY2022E-FY2023E as diesel and petrol crack spreads are likely to recover
with an improvement in demand and a decline in global inventories. We believe that the next leg of growth for RIL
would be driven by an improvement in earnings contribution from ramp-up of fibre broadband services, enterprise
business and new commerce. Additionally, the company’s unique online-offline retailing strategy would aid
growth and drive up the retail business’ margins. Overall, we expect 27% PAT CAGR over FY2021-FY2024E.
n Valuation - Maintain Buy rating on RIL with a revised SOTP based PT of Rs. 2,700
We have increased our FY2023-FY2024 earnings estimate to factor in high growth/margin for retail business. We
expect a continued recovery in RIL’s earnings led by cyclical recovery in O2C margins, gradual telecom tariff
hike, high growth for retail and ramp-up of new revenue streams (broadband services and new commerce). A
potential deal in O2C business and further value unlocking in the digital and retail businesses (with a likely IPO
for consumer business in next few years) are key catalysts for the stock and would add to shareholders’ returns in
the coming years. Hence, we maintain a Buy rating on RIL with a revised PT SoTP-based PT of Rs. 2,700 (reflects
higher valuation across retail, O2C and Jio). At CMP, the stock trades at 21.8x FY2023E EPS and 10.3x FY2023E
EV/EBITDA.
SoTP based valuation
Particulars Methodology Value per share (Rs/share)
Refining 8x FY23E EV/EBITDA 309
Petrochem 8x FY23E EV/EBITDA 396
Upstream oil & gas EV/BOE 56
Retail 30x FY23E EV/EBITDA 662
Digital Services 16x FY23E EV/EBITDA 1,047
Others 35
Enterprise Value 2,505
Net Debt (195)
Price target 2,700
Source: Sharekhan Research

One-year forward P/E (x) band

35.0

30.0

25.0

20.0
P/E(x)

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
Jul-11

Aug-12

Jul-13

Aug-14
Oct-11

Aug-16
Oct-13

Jul-18
Oct-15

Jul-20
Apr-11

May-12

May-14

Nov-14

Apr-16

Nov-16

Apr-18

Apr-20
Nov-18

May-21
Nov-20
Feb-12

Jan-14

Sep-17
Jan-16

Jan-18

Feb-19

Sep-19

Feb-21

Sep-21
Mar-13

Mar-15

Mar-17
Dec-12

Jun-15

Jun-17

Jun-19

Dec-19

P/E (x) Avg. P/E (x) Peak P/E (x) Trough P/E (x)

Source: Sharekhan Research

September 20, 2021 6
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About company
RIL is a diversified conglomerate with business interests across oil refining, petrochemicals, exploration and
production, retail and digital services. The company has one of the world’s largest refining assets with high
Nelson complexity level and an integrated petrochemical complex. RIL launched its telecom services, under
the brand JIO, in September 2016 and this business has already started reporting profits. Core business of
O2C accounted for ~39% of consolidated EBITDA in FY2021, while customer-centric businesses (retail and
digital services) contributed 45% to consolidated EBITDA.

Investment theme
RIL has completed its capital expenditure for expansion of downstream capacities, which have already started
yielding strong earnings growth. Improving growth prospects of telecom business with potential ARPU hike
and ramp-up of broadband services in digital business and sustained high growth in retail business would
be key catalysts for long-term value creation. RIL’s balance sheet has strengthened with recent fund raising
and the company has become virtually net debt free. The company target to increase share of EBITDA from
consumer centric over next few years bodes well for RIL amid volatility in refining and petrochemical margins.
Potential carving out of the O2C segment as a separate subsidiary is a key near-term catalyst for RIL Further
value unlocking in digital and retail (post recent stake sale deals) would add value to shareholders return
over coming years.

Key Risks
Š Lower-than-expected refining and petrochemical margins in case global capacity additions surpass
incremental demand.
Š Slower-than-expected pace of subscriber addition and ramp-up of broadband services and slowdown in
retail business could impact earnings and valuations

Additional Data
Key management personnel
Mukesh D. Ambani Chairman & Managing Director
Alok Agarwal Chief Financial Officer
PMS Prasad Executive Director
Source: Bloomberg

Top 10 shareholders
Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%)
1 Life Insurance Corp of India 5.6
2 Capital Group Cos Inc/The 4.0
3 Power Corp of Canada 2.8
4 FMR LLC 2.6
5 Europacific Growth Fund 2.4
6 Vanguard Group Inc/The 1.7
7 BlackRock Inc 1.5
8 SBI Funds Management Pvt Ltd 1.4
9 Republic of Singapore 1.1
10 Government Penion Fund Global 0.7
Source: Bloomberg

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

September 20, 2021 7

Understanding the Sharekhan 3R Matrix
Right Sector
Positive Strong industry fundamentals (favorable demand-supply scenario, consistent
industry growth), increasing investments, higher entry barrier, and favorable
government policies
Neutral Stagnancy in the industry growth due to macro factors and lower incremental
investments by Government/private companies
Negative Unable to recover from low in the stable economic environment, adverse
government policies affecting the business fundamentals and global challenges
(currency headwinds and unfavorable policies implemented by global industrial
institutions) and any significant increase in commodity prices affecting profitability.
Right Quality
Positive Sector leader, Strong management bandwidth, Strong financial track-record,
Healthy Balance sheet/cash flows, differentiated product/service portfolio and
Good corporate governance.
Neutral Macro slowdown affecting near term growth profile, Untoward events such as
natural calamities resulting in near term uncertainty, Company specific events
such as factory shutdown, lack of positive triggers/events in near term, raw
material price movement turning unfavourable
Negative Weakening growth trend led by led by external/internal factors, reshuffling of
key management personal, questionable corporate governance, high commodity
prices/weak realisation environment resulting in margin pressure and detoriating
balance sheet
Right Valuation
Positive Strong earnings growth expectation and improving return ratios but valuations
are trading at discount to industry leaders/historical average multiples, Expansion
in valuation multiple due to expected outperformance amongst its peers and
Industry up-cycle with conducive business environment.
Neutral Trading at par to historical valuations and having limited scope of expansion in
valuation multiples.
Negative Trading at premium valuations but earnings outlook are weak; Emergence of
roadblocks such as corporate governance issue, adverse government policies
and bleak global macro environment etc warranting for lower than historical
valuation multiple.
Source: Sharekhan Research
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