European Central Bank

Name Position Country Stance Recent Comments

Suggests we are not near the reversal rate. Incoming data points to muted
inflation pressures and initial signs of growth stabilisation. Growth risks
titled to the downside but has become somewhat less pronounced. Review is
overdue and should begin in January, to be completed before end of 2020.
(Dec 12)

Wants to re-examine the ECBs inflation mandate, a review of monetary

framework is warranted and inflation is persistently too low, incoming ECB
President Lagarde says highly accommodation policy is warranted for a
Christine Lagarde(5) President France Dovish
prolonged period of time, EZ economy faces near-term risks, inflation
persistently too low, review of monetary framework is warranted.
(September)

Lagarde says the biggest hurdle the global economy is facing is

protectionism, adds that US economy is in a very good place; says Europe
will be in good shape if there is a joint effort to steer the economy. European
financial situation has changed significantly since the crisis. (September)

Slowdown in the Euro Area has bottomed out as a disorderly Brexit and
trade wars between China and the US are yet to materialise, calls for
structural reforms and fiscal policy in Europe to take over from monetary
policy. (Dec 13)

Does not forecast the Eurozone entering recession but does expect very low
growth for a longer period. (Oct 14)

Does not included the possibility of a no deal Brexit or an escalation in trade

Luis de Guindos (4) Vice-President Spain Dovish
tensions in its base line; if these downward risks materialise growth outlook
would further deteriorate. Adds inflation expectations have not de-
anchored, but there is a risk they could. Added that has not discussed
further rate cuts yet and consensus is -0.5% is the correct level for now,
although we can reduce rates further. Says side effects of monetary policy is
becoming more evident but ECB still has headroom. Asked whether ECB
will make changes at the next meeting, says will have to wait and see what
happens with the outlook. (Oct 9)

Eurozone is facing a more extended slowdown than previously expected

and, as such, a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will be
necessary for a prolonged period of time. Lane added that the convergence
of inflation towards the inflation aim has recently slowed and partly
Chief reversed but maintained that the ECB’s monetary policy measures remain
Phillip Lane(3) Ireland Dove
Economist effective in fostering a reacceleration of growth and, thereby, inflation
convergence. Lane commented that the more fiscal policy contributes to
boosting long-term growth potential and providing cyclical stabilisation, the
quicker will be the effects of monetary policy interventions on the economy
and inflation. (Oct 16)
Lowering the inflation target would be wrong, as an alternative, ECB could
communicate the range of inflation outcomes that can be considered
acceptable in normal times. (Dec 18)
Hawkish
Executive
Benoît Cœuré (1) France (Opposed
Board Governing Council is committed to continue net purchases for as long as
QE, sources)
necessary to reinforce the accommodative impact of its policy rates, to end
shortly before ECB starts raising the key interest rates. (Nov 12)
 Says that Euro short-term rate responded precisely as expected and the ECB
rate reduction was fully priced through. (Oct 16)

Likelihood of deflation remains limited, market expectations of inflation to

Executive
Yves Mersch (2) Luxembourg Hawkish the medium term are settling around values not consistent with ECB goals.
Board
(Nov 11)
Sees a possible ECB rate change in the event the inflation trough passes
during 2020. (Dec 16)
Hawkish
Robert Holzmann Governor Austria (Opposed
When asked about the ECB's inflation target should be lowered, says there
QE, sources)
are many counter arguments, no discussions within the ECB GC on inflation
yet. (Dec 13)
The incoming news since the September stimulus package is not positive,
Pierre Wunsch Governor Belgium Neutral ECB are far from target. EZ slowdown not a soft patch, would not have
halted QE if the ECB could have forecast this weakness. (October 25)

Constantinos Herodotou Governor Cyprus Neutral No recent pertinent comments

ECB should have flexibility around the inflation target, should consider a
Hawkish band around the objective (Dec 17)
Madis Müller Governor Estonia (Opposed
QE, sources) Over the coming quarters, a discussion is needed on a new ECB policy
framework. (Oct 25)
Regenerative monetary policy is expected to continue until inflation
expectations return clearly close enough to 2% and until its effects can also
be seen in core inflation (Dec 17)

FT article about MPC reportedly advising against resuming APP in a letter

to ECB Draghi is exaggerated (Oct 10) - this followed an FT story that stated
Olli Rehn Governor Finland Dove ECB’s MPC reportedly advised against resuming APP in a letter to ECB
President Draghi and other members of the Governing Council days before
the September decision, according to sources.

ECB's package was a response to the shortfall in inflation and that rate
tiering provides the ECB with more space to cut rates further if necessary.
(September)
Hawkish
François Villeroy de Notes that the context of prolonged uncertainty requires accommodative
Governor France (Opposed
Galhau monetary policy (Oct 25)
QE, sources)
Not against expansionary policy, but we must weigh how much; interest
rates are close to the lower bound (Nov 15)

Hawk It is important for central banks to stick to a narrow interpretation of its

Jens Weidmann Governor Germany (Opposed mandate, adding that more fiscal support is not needed unless the situation
QE, sources) worsens, but if so, additional fiscal spending is possible in Germany. (Oct 16)

ECB went overboard with its stimulus package, adding he will make sure
hikes are not delayed for too long. (Sept)

Yannis Stournaras Governor Greece Dovish No recent pertinent comments

Prefers bond purchases over negative interest rates, as they have little effect
and can have negative side-effects. (Dec 3)

Ignazio Visco Governor Italy Dove Did not agree on all pieces of the September package. Says he does not think
the negative interest rate environment is normal, must be mindful of the
side effects; says APP is more effective than negative rates. Says ECB should
be "very very" careful in going further into negative rates. (Oct 17)
 Recent expansionary measures were necessary to counter the risk of a return
to deflation, adding that the ECB must counter the significant risk that the
economic slowdown and the low level of inflation translate into a
permanent reduction in inflation expectations, or a re-emergence of the
threat of deflation. (Sep 30)
External risks are heightened at present, macroeconomic outlook is mixed,
Gabriel Makhlouf Governor Ireland N/A sees protracted weakness in the Euro Area; hard and soft H2 data points to
continuing moderate growth (Nov 20)
Ilmars Rimsevics Governor Latvia Neutral No recent pertinent comments
Vitas Vasiliauskas Governor Lithuania Neutral No recent pertinent comments

Gaston Reinesch Governor Luxembourg Neutral No recent pertinent comments

Mario Vella Governor Malta Neutral No recent pertinent comments

Cannot dismiss worrying prospect of current low interest rates lasting
another half-decade and that low interest rate policy risks becoming
counterproductive, adds have to reassess policy in time (Dec 23)

Hawk Would not give up the current inflation target, adding a 2% target is better
Klaas Knot Governor Netherlands (Opposed than 1% as it there is more room for manoeuvre (Nov 14)
QE, sources)
Impact of negative rates has been positive on balance. (Oct 17)

Calls for more symmetric band around the inflation target and longer
horizon for achieving it. (Oct 16)
Carlos Costa Governor Portugal Dovish No recent pertinent comments
Low interest rates for longer could spur risk-taking by some economic
actors, which could threaten financial stability; says maintaining low
Pablo Hernández de Cos Governor Spain Dovish
interest rates for longer could hurt banking transmission channels of our
monetary policy (Dec 3)
There is no reason to alter the Eurozone's growth prospects, given that the
economy is developing as projected. ECB's September measures were
Boštjan Vasle Governor Slovenia Neutral
working, but if the situation changes, there was room for lower rates. (Nov
18)
ECB mandate is clear regarding inflation, we are ready to discuss all topics,
there are no taboos. (Dec 17)

Peter Kažimír Governor Slovakia Dovish

Monetary policy's key target is inflation, but its side effect is policy that
supports growth and that is not going to change in the coming months, adds
that he is cautiously optimistic on economic outlook (Nov 22)

ECB Governing Council Voting Schedule - 2020

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Board Members

Lagarde V V V V V V V V V V V V

de Guindos V V V V V V V V V V V V

Cœuré V V V V V V V V V V V V

Mersch V V V V V V V V V V V V

Lane V V V V V V V V V V V V
 *Vacant (Formerly
V V V V V V V V V V V V
Lautenschlager)*
Governing Council members – Group 1

Weidmann V V V V NV V V V V NV V V

de Cos NV V V V V NV V V V V NV V

Villeroy V NV V V V V NV V V V V NV

Visco V V NV V V V V NV V V V V

Knot V V V NV V V V V NV V V V

Non-governing Council Members - Group 2

Wunsch V V V V V V V NV NV NV V V

Müller V V V V V V V V NV NV NV V

Makhlouf V V V V V V V V V NV NV NV

Stournaras V V V V V V V V V V NV NV

Herodotou V V V V V V V V V V V NV

Rimšēvičs NV V V V V V V V V V V V

Vasiliauskas NV NV V V V V V V V V V V

Reinesch NV NV NV V V V V V V V V V

Vella V NV NV NV V V V V V V V V

Holzmann V V NV NV NV V V V V V V V

Costa V V V NV NV NV V V V V V V

Vasle V V V V NV NV NV V V V V V

Kažimír V V V V V NV NV NV V V V V

Rehn V V V V V V NV NV NV V V V

Lithuania joined the Eurozone on 1 January 2015, triggering a rule created in 2002 stating that as soon the number of Governors exceeds 18, the
ECB must implement a rotation system of voting.

The ECB explain that Governors from countries ranked first to fifth – currently, Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands – share four
voting rights and all others (14 when Lithuania joins) share 11 voting rights. The Governors take turns using the rights on a monthly rotation, while
the ECB’s Executive Board members will continue to hold permanent voting rights. All members of the Governing Council will attend the meetings
and have the right to speak and the one member, one vote principle will continue to apply to those holding a voting right at that time.

KEY:

(1) Term ends on 31st December 2019

(2) Term ends on 14th December 2020

(3) Term ends on 31st May 2027

(4) Term ends on 31st May 2026

(5) Terms ends 31st October 2027

Bank of England
 Doves Neutral Hawks N/A

4 3 2 0

Name Position Stance Comments

Bar for changing the inflation targeting regime is high. But it is nonetheless healthy to
review it periodically. Rebound forecast by the BoE for the UK economy this year is not
assured. All told, a reasonable judgement is that the combined conventional and
unconventional policy space is in the neighbourhood of the 250 basis points cut to Bank
Rate seen in pre-crisis easing cycles. Note, dovish reaction to these remarks was
exacerbated by abbreviated reporting around the release (Jan 9th)

Since the election, probability of a disorderly Brexit has reduced. (16 th Dec)

If downside risks emerge to UK economy, there may be a need to provide

reinforcement, but this is not pre-committing; pickup-up in UK growth likely to be
Governor limited by a lack of supply capacity in the economy. (Nov 7th)
(Until March 15th
Mark Carney 2020 – FCA Neutral Does not see large imbalances in the economy which normally precipitate a slowdown,
Director Bailey is have the required tools to deal with such a slowdown. (Sep 10th)
successor)
Preparations for a no-deal Brexit means the Bank’s assessment of worst-case Brexit
scenarios have become less severe; judgement is that the economy is growing very
weakly. Worst case sees a rise in unemployment to 7% with inflation peaking at 5.25%.
(Sep 4)

Monetary policy response to Brexit is not automatic and could go either way. There are
limits to what the BoE can do after a no-deal Brexit but highly unlikely that the BoE
will need to take steps to stabilise markets after a no-deal Brexit.

At this stage negative interest rates are not seen as a UK option, not in favour of
changing the inflation target (Aug 19)

Ben Broadbent Deputy Governor Neutral No recent pertinent comments.

Economic outlook is weaker than we anticipated a year ago, reiterating that rate could
Jon Cunliffe Deputy Governor Dovish move in either direction following a no-deal Brexit; monetary policy is not powerless
but expect more tools will be needed to stimulate demand in downturn. (Oct 14)

Sir David Ramsden Deputy Governor Dove A smooth Brexit would put rate hikes on the table (18th Oct)

He would be cautious about monetary policy loosening, barring a sharp economic

downturn. With the economic road ahead potentially forking, the case for holding rates
until the road becomes clearer is strong. Despite some Brexit-related volatility quarter-
Andy Bank Executive to-quarter, underlying UK growth remains fairly steady, if not spectacular, at a fraction
Hawkish
Haldane Director below its cruising altitude. In practice, as the MPC has emphasised, the actual path of
interest rates in the event of either Brexit outcome would never be automatic.
The market path of interest rates is not an accurate reflection of the most likely path of
interest rates. (July)
Dissented on the November and December’19 rate decisions, called for a 25bp cut
(decision was U/C at 0.75%)

Dovish, Current data justifies looser monetary policy, cutting interest rates now would be
Jonathan Haskel External Member
Dissenter insurance against rates getting stuck near zero in the near future, effects of
unconventional policies such as QE “much more uncertain. “slow and gradual” rise in
bank rates may be needed if path to post-Brexit EU trade agreement is smoother than he
expects. (20th Dec)
 Prepared to lower rates if the data doesn’t get better. Thinks it has been a close call and
wouldn’t take much to swing it one way or the other, while he suggested the upcoming
few meetings are live. (Jan 13th)

Gertjan Vlieghe External Member Dovish Since July global outlook has deteriorated again, scenario of an entrenched Brexit
uncertainty likely to require some stimulus; continues to see UK effective lower bound
close to but above zero. Should consider purchasing private sector assets in the future, in
the event that a asset class in particular is under stress. (Oct 15)

Dissented on the November and December’19 rate decisions, called for a 25bp cut
(decision was U/C at 0.75%)

Will probably be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy stance, and

possibly cut rates further. With limited monetary policy space, risk management
considerations favour a relatively prompt and aggressive response to downside risks at
present. Would not regard a rate cut now as precautionary. (Jan 15th)

"prolonged high Brexit uncertainty" could warrant looser monetary policy if global
growth remains disappointing. These adverse effects of high uncertainty are becoming
clearer in UK macro data. The economy has slowed markedly since early this year but
the economy has not crashed. The effect of Brexit uncertainties is perhaps akin to the
Dovish,
Michael Saunders External Member economy developing a slow puncture such that growth has slowed to a mere crawl.
Dissenter
Some further monetary tightening – limited and gradual – probably would be needed to
return inflation to target on a sustained basis if global growth recovers and Brexit
uncertainty falls significantly. If the UK avoids a no-deal Brexit, monetary policy also
could go either way and I think it is quite plausible that the next move in Bank Rate
would be down rather than up. Rates could move either way after a no-deal Brexit.
Adds that UK businesses are placing more weight on the chance of a disorderly Brexit
than the bank's forecasts had assumed.
(September 27)

Floor for rates is close to zero, marginally positive, he is not a fan of negative interest
rates, below potential growth is enough to justify a rate cut. Further asset purchases is a
tool for policy loosening once rates are at lower bounds. (September 27)
Inclination is to a cut in rates, in the event that downside risks were to emerge; adds
that risks are tilted to the downside. More stimulus may be needed in the event that
growth fails to recover; referring to upcoming months. (Jan 10th)

BoE will watch how demand reacts to Brexit and will focus on its inflation remit within
a reasonable period. (Oct 28)

Says a small amount of policy tightening will likely be needed in the event of a smooth
Brexit. However, says it is still possible that we could have to hike rates in the event of a
no-deal Brexit, but we don't know for sure. Adds the MPC is exploring ways to resolve
tensions between the market view and the bank's assumptions for a smooth Brexit.
Silvana Tenreyro External Member Dovish
(July)
Federal Reserve

Doves Neutral Hawks N/A

4 10 3 0

Name Position City / State Stance Recent Comments

Most of the interesting remarks were around the balance sheet,

where Powell emphasised the Fed was growing it to ensure bank
reserves were ample, a level which it believes it would hit in Q2;
further, he suggests a level of USD 1.5trln (where it stood at
end-2019) would serve as a floor, but there is no fixed level the
Fed has set, the level was dynamic. Powell said that the Fed
would know when adjustments to the balance sheet have run its
course when reserves were durably at a sustainable level. On
inflation, Powell said the Fed tweaked its view within the
statement to demonstrate that the Fed was not happy with
missing its inflation target -- some Fedwatchers said that this
opened the door to looser policy ahead, while other watchers
noted that Powell was highlighting that purchases will be
reduced as the appropriate level of the balance sheet is reached,
potentially hinting at less accommodative conditions ahead.
Powell generally retained his upbeat view of the US economy,
noting that financial conditions were supportive, trade tensions
had eased, though were yet to go away, and the risks of a hard
Brexit had diminished; citing PMI data, Powell said he believes
that manufacturing may have bottomed, but noted that nothing
was assured. Indeed, the Fed Chair noted the macroeconomic
uncertainties presented by the Coronavirus, which he said were
at an early stage. In aggregate, he stated he was "cautiously
optimistic". Net/net, over the press conference,
Permanent Voter / (Jan 29th 2020)
Jerome Powell Chairman N/A Neutral
FOMC Members
Fed Chair Powell retained his upbeat view of the US economy,
highlighting the familiar risks of sluggish global growth and
trade tensions which are weighing on it. He suggested that the
Fed’s insurance rate cuts had kept the US economic outlook on
track and policy was now “somewhat accommodative”. In terms
of the outlook, Powell reiterated that the stance of monetary
policy will likely remain appropriate as long as incoming data
held up, also reiterating that the Fed would respond accordingly
to material changes in the outlook. Powell was asked whether
the Fed could ‘take back’ the insurance rate cuts it has
implemented; he said that three rate cuts was not part of the
plan when the Fed began the insurance cuts, and that the need
for rate hikes was less than what it was in the mid-1990s
cycle. Powell also reiterated that the Fed would need to see a
significant, persistent move higher in inflation before it lifted
rates. He also stated that it is very challenging to get inflation
back to 2%, which saw USD weaken, stocks, gold and T-Notes
rise during the press conference (with the implication seemingly
that rates may need to remain lower for longer to help the Fed
reach its inflation goal). (In wake of these remarks, some
commentators highlighted remarks from Powell last year, where
he seemed comfortable that inflation was moving to target, and
at that stage, Powell did not feel that policy needed to be
accommodative). On wage growth, Powell said it was being held
 back by low productivity and globalisation, adding that the
labour market might not be as tight as the FOMC had previously
thought. With regards to repo markets, Powell again sought to
play down the link between money market operations and
monetary policy, saying reop ops were unlikely to have any
macroeconomic implications; he said pressures in recent weeks
had been subdued, and the Fed stands ready to adjust operations
to keep the EFFR within range. Powell also noted that
historically, repo markets face pressure towards year-end,
though the Fed chair suggested that he did not foresee any
unmanageable stress, and the Fed stood ready to adjust its
operations as appropriate, though he played down the notion
that this was forthcoming, stating that operations were currently
proceeding well. (Dec 11th)

Low global interest rates are here to stay and should lead Central
Bank members to renew their inflation goal commitment.
(6th Jan 2020)

Housing market is picking up from a year ago and consumer

spending is strong, expects US economy to grow by about 2%
over the next couple of years, says low and stable inflation isn't a
concern, but wants to avoid falling inflation.
Expect to see growth around 2.25%, unemployment around
3.5% and inflation remaining soft, haven’t seen inflationary
pressures emerge, reiterates data dependence. Monetary policy
is accomodative and is supporting growth. Material change in
economic outlook will cause him to change outlook. Williams
says there are still significant risks to the downside, citing trade
and geopolitical uncertainty. He believes monetary policy is in
the right place. On the repo-operations, says they have been
very effective and money markets are moving smoothly.
(Dec 13th/18th)

FOMC Vice
John Williams New York Neutral The labour market is really strong, and has low unemployment;
Chairman
officials have lowered their view of what sustainable level of
unemployment is based on low inflation, inflation pressures are
very muted today. Monetary policy is moderately
accommodative right now. Slowing global growth and mute
inflation pressures argue for a more accommodative policy (not
clear if he is referring to this year's rate cuts or future policy)
Fed will be data dependent and pre-emptive going forward
In the event of a recession, it would address it by putting
interest rates to zero, and also use communication and asset
purchases. (Nov 13th)

US economy and monetary policy is in a good place, that the

Fed will adjust policy if there is a material change to the
outlook. Too-low inflation is a greater concern than too high
inflation, he sees slower global growth affecting the US
economy. Ongoing uncertainty on trade and geopolitics are
making businesses cautious. The Fed's rate cuts were insurance
against ongoing potential risks. Reserves are now at an ample
level, where the reserves previously did affect liquidity in the
market and the sensitivity of interest rates. Monetary policy
 should not get involved with the volatility of trade and Brexit
and instead should take a longer view. (Nov 14th)

US economy is in a very good place, is close to achieving the 2%

inflation goal on a sustained basis; this year’s interest rate cuts
have been very effective and currently monetary policy is well
positioned, the Fed will stick to data dependency. Fed's
Williams added that his key focus in assessing stresses in the
repo market in September is monetary policy, where the Fed
will be thinking why the level of reserves needs to be so high,
including looking at regulations. The NY Fed President said that
over the coming months, the Fed must ensure it is not
overreactive to individual data points, if inflation were to move
in the wrong direction on a sustained basis, the Fed could
become more accommodative. Williams said that because
reserve levels are higher than the Fed was anticipating, it does
not change monetary policy calculus, where the focus on repo
stresses is what is making banks want to hold such reserve
levels. (Nov 19th)

On the economy, there is some indication that global growth

headwinds are beginning to abate; reiterates Fed’s guidance that
it would respond materially to any material assessment of the
outlook. Clarida says we enter 2020 with the economy growing
around trend rate, and downside risks have diminished but he
sees inflation risks as skewed to the downside. On policy, rate
cuts last year were well-timed, and supported the economy.
Strong labour market is not putting any undue pressure on
inflation; repeats economy in a good place, inflation still muted
but expected to rise. On repo-operations, said Fed will adjust
details of repo operations as appropriate, though ongoing
purchases may be needed at least through April. (Jan 9th)

On policy, he does not see Fed taking forward guidance out of

its toolkit and it will use its full arsenal of tools in the event of
an economic downturn. Clarida highlighted that monetary
policy did support the economy through the tough stretch last
Vice
summer. On the economy, notes the US consumer is in great
Chairman of
Richard Clarida N/A Neutral shape and sees no signs of the consumer pulling back noting the
the Board of
US economy is in a good place and Fed’s baseline outlook for
Governors
economy is more of the same for 2020. (Dec 13th)

Inflation expectations reside at low end of range he considers

consistent with Fed’s price stability mandate
No evidence wages are placing excessive upward pressure on
inflation, believes the natural rate of unemployment extends to
4% and below, includes the current rate of 3.6%. (Nov 14th)

There are ongoing discussions about “makeup” inflation

strategies that could aid anchored inflation expectations and
support the economy should rates fall to zero. (Nov 12th)

October jobs report was very solid, and the resilient economy
was in a very good place, monetary policy was in a good place;
however, Clarida still views the balance of risks as somewhat
tilted to the downside. Nevertheless, his comments were quite
positive, noting that the Fed had a favourable view of the
outlook, and he reiterated the central bank's data dependency,
 stating that every meeting was live. On the consumer sector,
Clarida did not see any 'cracks' in the US consumer, saying the
sector has never been in better shape. Finally, Clarida did not
see wage inflation as a concern. (Nov 1st)

US economy is doing well, and he is optimistic about the

outlook, and also the longer-term potential of the U.S. economy.
Quarles said a particular source of strength has been the labour
market, and he was encouraged by labour force participation, as
the tight labour market has motivated workers to either join or
Vice
remain in the labour force, halting, at least for the time being, a
Chairman
Randal Quarles N/A Neutral long-standing downward trend. Although the pace of job gains
for
has slowed this year, Quarles said the Fed expected some
Supervision
deceleration because of how low the unemployment rate has
fallen. However, he noted that one prominent factor weighing
on a relatively robust domestic economy has been weak growth
among our trading partners; Find the weakness of investment to
be of particular concern. (1st Nov)
Noted that there is strong preference to address the effective
lower bound with existing tools, adding that negative rates are
unattractive for the US. (Oct 16)

Fed has taken insurance out against risks from trade uncertainty
US consumer is resilient and upbeat
Sees economy growing above trend next year
Wants to see how the economy reacts to existing rate cut. (Nov
20th)

Towed the Fed policy line, saying that she will be watching data
carefully for any signs of a material change to the outlook, then
Board of policy changes would be required; expects US economy to grow
Lael Brainard N/A Neutral
Governors above trend next year, but risks to the outlook are to the
downside, although sentiment appears to be improving, she
caveated, in addition to recent strong housing data showing the
Fed’s rate cuts had been having a positive impact. Brainard
expressed concern that trend inflation has slipped below 2% and
changes to the framework are needed to raise it. In the next
crisis, she said the Fed should consider capping treasury bond
rates - rather than relying on the sort of QE it used last time -
where short- to medium-term securities would be focused on,
but the credibility of policy would mean purchases of bonds
may only need to be limited, she added. The Board of Governors
member also said the costs of NIRP are not worth the benefits.
(Nov. 26th)

US economy is in a "good place" and is likely to remain so; Fed

policy rate is likely to remain at current levels this year absent
of a change in the outlook. The typically less vocal Governor
Board of
Michelle Bowman N/A Neutral spoke in-fitting with other Fed officials, expressing her
Governors
expectations for inflation to increase to the 2% target over the
next few years.
(16th Jan 2020)
 Reiterated he expects the US economy to grow ~2% this year
(in-line with Fed’s median view) and for inflation to reach the
Fed’s 2% target. Harker also noted the US Labour market is
outperforming forecasts, with low unemployment and workers
coming off the side-lines. However, he reiterated the fed’s line
that the global slowdown, trade uncertainty is holding back
business investment, as are geopolitical tensions. On the repo-
markets, he reiterated that they have worked to calm money
markets.
Patrick Harker (17th Jan 2020)
N/A Philadelphia Neutral
(2020 Voter)
Rates are in a good place, unless there is a significant change in
inflation, added that the Fed doesn't need to lower rates right
now, citing risks of financial stability. On inflation, Harker said
the Fed can implement some forms of forward guidance by
allowing inflation to rise above 2%, also that it is not evident
inflation would increase if the FFR was moved; adding it does
not make sense for the 2% inflation target to be changed.
(15h Jan 2020)

Would be healthy to lay out a path where the Fed can reduce
repo operations and curtail balance sheet growth, where it
should have a structure in place so that it can have the smallest
balance sheet possible; concerned of balance sheet growth's
effect on risk assets. Kaplan expects business investment to
continue to underperform, but said the consumer is strong and
the job market is tight on a historical basis, whilst the
unemployment rate could fall a little bit.
(15th Jan 2020)

Current rates are the roughly appropriate setting; sees between

2% to 2.25% growth in 2020, saying outlook has "firmed" in
recent weeks, if anything; expects unemployment to fall further
and inflation rising to the 2% goal. When mulling a potential
rate change, Kaplan said the Fed will look at growth, inflation
and financial stability. Kaplan is willing to tolerate inflation
Robert Kaplan above 2%, but also cognizant of financial stability; open to
N/A Dallas Neutral
(2020 Voter) longer-term averaging for the inflation target but does not want
it as a "commitment". Kaplan wants to actively explore options
to limit the growth in the balance sheet; doesn't want the
balance sheet to fuel instability.
(9th Jan 2020)

Sees no 2020 rate moves, saying the appropriate path for policy
is for it to stay where it is; a material change to the outlook
would be required for him to support a rate cut. Kaplan sees no
hikes in 2020 (in line with the FOMC’s median dot); Kaplan’s
remarks were very much in line with the FOMC ‘median’.
Kaplan was keen to stress that inflation pressures were muted,
suggesting a tight labour market can be run without a risk of
price rises, globalisation is hampering upward pressures and that
he sees persistent muted inflation in 2020. On funding market
pressures, Kaplan said the Fed should be “seriously consider” a
standing repo facility, adding that the repo market is
manageable but the Fed may need to run a larger balance sheet
than previously thought; he wants the Fed too also re-examine
 how it treats Treasuries versus reserves for capital requirements
to ease repo pressures. (Dec 17th)

December employment situation report suggests that the

economy is slowing. Kashkari would support a rate cut if jobs
growth continues to weaken, inflation stays low, inflation
expectations slip. He sees rates on hold for the foreseeable
future, and sees the next move as a cut, rather than a hike. He
supports an SRF, and said it would allow the Fed to have a
smaller balance sheet. (10th Jan 2020)

Business investment is low due to tariff uncertainty, where an

improvement in trade tensions could support gains in optimism;
doesn't see a recession in the next few years. Kashkari added
that the Fed is in a much better position to lift inflation now
that rates are on pause; sees a pause in rates for the foreseeable
future, dependent on the inflation outlook. The Minneapolis Fed
President added that he is not concerned about low rates causing
corporations to take on too much debt, but is more concerned
with banks holding the debt, and wants to ensure they have
enough capital. (9th Jan 2020)

US Consumer is still strong, businesses have cut back on

investments. (Nov 21st)

Balance of risks are were still tilted to the downside and

Neel Kashkari repeated his argument that monpol has been too tight during
N/A Minneapolis Dove
(2020 Voter) recovery. Kashkari said he was concerned about the trend in
inflation expectations and repeated his view that forward
guidance might play role in helping. On future policy, Kashkari
said that negative rates cannot be ruled out as a tool. On
potential future moves, Kashkari seemed to indicate he was data
dependent, and also noted that the Fed does not know where
neutral rate exactly is, but Kashkari thinks rates are around
neutral and somewhat accommodative. Elsewhere, he observed
that wage growth net of inflation was now positive, which is a
very positive thing. (Nov 4th)

Monetary policy had been too tight, US economy was not at

maximum employment, and inflation has been below 2%;
Kashkari argued that the Fed was in a "free lunch zone" where
there is no trade-off between the two mandates of employment
and inflation. (Nov 1st)

Said US economy is sending 'mixed signals'; Kashkari views the

US consumer as strong, though business were nervous and
pulling back on spending and hiring. (Oct 18)

Said the time to provide a shock with a 50bps cut had passed –
he had previously been in favour of such action. (Oct 11)
 US economic fundamentals were good, and is encouraged by the
consumer sector which can offset manufacturing weakness.
Mester said uncertainty has clouded the outlook, however, and
expects some slowing of the growth rate towards the trend.
Mester sees growth just above the trend rate this year (which
she sees around 2.0%), and she said she does not mind inflation
being just beneath or just above 2%. In the event of a negative
shock, Mester says the Fed has room to move around its 2%
inflation target. When asked about actions in a downturn, says
QE was effective and forward guidance can be effective.
(3rd Jan 2020)

Sees risks tilted to the downside and sees no sign that weakness
is spreading to the wider economy, says it is worth considering a
Loretta Standard Repo Facility. Would re-evaluate monetary policy if
Mester N/A Cleveland Hawk there were signs of weakness in either hiring or consumer
(2020 Voter) spending. Expects the US economy to grow by an average of 2%
this year, and for inflation to be slightly below 2%. Does not see
the current inflation readings as problematic. (Nov 21st)

That she would have preferred for rates to have remained on

hold at the latest FOMC meeting, although said current policy is
well calibrated to the economy. The Cleveland Fed President
towed the Fed line of a strong consumer and labour market,
whilst watching out for signs of sectoral weakness spreading to
other segments of the economy. Mester said the FOMC was on
pause whilst it watches how the US economy evolves to recent
easing. In regard to repo operations, Mester echoed other
policymakers saying that there were ongoing discussions about
the possibility of a standing repo facility. (Nov 18th)

He is content where rates are currently, and the Fed should

asses the lagged effects of the recent rate moves. Bullard favours
the standing repo facility as a long-term solution, which he
believes could help keep the balance sheet from growing too
large. Bullard said there is reasonable chance of a soft landing in
the US in 2020 due to the fast growth of 2018 and 2019's risks;
businesses are remaining profitable despite trade uncertainty.
On recent geopolitics, Bullard said that if tensions in the Middle
East push up oil prices, the US will be more resilient in the face
of any energy shock.
(9th Jan 2020)

James Bullard said he has pencilled in no rate increases for 2020, in

Bullard N/A St Louis Dove line with the Fed dot plot, and reiterates that the Fed should be
(2022 Voter) data dependent. Bullard stated he would want to see more
inflation before he would call for rate increase; “I’m not putting
a lot of weight” on the idea that inflation is going to be
particularly high anytime soon. (Dec. 19th)

Bullard said the yield curve is in a more normal state, which

could be bullish for the economy in 2020; notes he had flagged
concerns over the yield curve inversion but now says that Fed
policy is considerably more accommodative. Says risks remain,
but the Fed cuts this year may prompt faster than expected
growth and better inflation outcomes next year. Bullard noted it
is better to wait and see the impact of the cuts made so far this
year. Fed can reconsider whether to “take “back” the recent
 insurance cuts if and when business adjust to new trade
landscape expects US job growth to slow, forecasts growth of 2%
or higher in the coming periods. Now hopes can get a bit better
growth due to rate cuts, hopeful improvements in productivity
may push growth above 2%. On framework review, says Fed
does not have a vehicle for large change to monetary
framework. Ideas like average inflation targeting may come to
influence policy debate, but "not so much that we are going to
write it in stone" (Nov 15th)

N.B. Bullard was a dovish dissenter (voting for a 50bps cut) at

the September FOMC meeting, and 25bps in October.
Towed the Fed’s line that rates on hold for now is appropriate in
her view as the bank assess the economy’s response to the
Esther Hawk – previous rate cuts and the incoming data. George continues to
George N/A Kansas City September forecast strong consumer spending, continued weakness in
(2022 Voter) Dissenter manufacturing and business investment this year. On growth,
expects GDP growth to slow to its long growth trend of 1.75-2%
(Median long-term view stands at 1.9%). (14th Jan 2020)
Economy faces upside inflation and financial stability risks,
something that low rates may induce, adding that the Fed is in a
risky place as its stimulative policy is well below the level which
is considered to be neutral. (13th Jan 2020)

Additional policy easing was unnecessary in the near term, and

that the economy is currently in a good place, performing as
expected, despite recent concerns about slower global growth
and trade uncertainty. The Boston Fed President, a noted
hawkish dissenter in this year’s cutting cycle, said
unemployment will likely fluctuate narrowly around its current
rate of 3.5% in 2020 and inflation will be close to the Fed’s 2%
Hawk- target; said the economy has grown at close to 2% annual rate
Eric
July & over the past two quarters, as strength in households has offset
Rosengren N/A Boston
September weaknesses in business investment – and said that pattern is
(2022 Voter)
Dissenter likely to continue, as consumer spending is bolstered by job
creation and increases in personal income and wealth. (Dec 17th)

Explaining his hawkish dissent at this week's FOMC, says fiscal

and monetary policy are already accommodative
Adds that with labor markets tight, inflation near target, real
GDP growing around estimates of its potential, and a
moderation of the risks surrounding trade and Brexit, Rosengren
believes further accommodation is not needed. (Nov 1st)

Nothing has come in since October that would change the view
that the last rate cut was not needed, US economy is in pretty
good shape. (Nov. 11th)
US economy is in a very good place, with rates in the right place
to support it; expects employment growth to decelerate over
time; sees inflation reaching 1.9% this year (in-line with Fed
median dot plot), with current rates supporting inflation.
Charles Evans (9th Jan 2020)
(2021 voter) N/A Chicago Dovish
US economy's fundamentals were good at the moment, and the
labour market was strong at present. Evans argued that policy
was accommodative, but the Fed has more room to move if
needed; he said the previous rate hikes were not a mistake, just a
misunderstanding. When asked about what the Fed would do in
 the next downturn, Evans said rates would be lower for a long
time and then use of forward guidance. On today's grim ISM-
Manufacturing data, Evans said he is seeing a lot of uncertainty
regarding tariff policy.
(3rd Jan 2020)

Monetary policy is at a good setting currently and he is data

dependent, where it would require a lot of new data to change
his opinion, echoing other policymakers in that inflation would
have to go meaningfully above 2% for him to support monetary
tightening. Evans expressed his concern with low inflation but
said the economy is strong, although he does see employment
growth moderating lower to closer to 100,00 jobs a month.
(Dec 18th)

Fed has accomplished accommodative policy with its third rate

cut in 2019, adding that he believed policy was now not that far
off neutral, and reiterated an argument heard from many Fed
officials that the US economy and monetary policy was in a
good place. Looking ahead, Evans said he will be keeping an eye
on inflation in deciding future policy, stating that inflation has
been on the light side, and it was important to be clear on what
it means by 'symmetry' to its 2% inflation target. On the Fed's
repo operations, Evans said there are operational issues in setting
up a repo facility, though the Fed balance sheet operations
should address many of the repo issues. (Nov 6th)

Expects US GDP to grow at 2% in 2020 and unemployment to

remain little changed, whilst seeing inflation rising to 2%,
noting inflation is lower partly because of global factors, but sees
it sustainably reaching 2% in 2021. Tight labour market is
supporting labour force participation, which is good for the
economy. Fed has a plan in place to maintain ample reserves
Yield curve is flattter than in the past due to slower growth and
lower neutral rate; watching yield curve although it is not
Mary Daly
N/A San Francisco Neutral alarming right now. (15th Jan 2020)
(2021 Voter)
Tools for addressing next recession include Fed Fund Rate,
forward guidance and balance sheet policy, adds her view is Fed
is very far from going to negative rates and notes the labor
market is very strong. Yield curve inversion is strongly
correlated to recessions, but there are reasons to think this time
might be different. (Nov 1st)
Non-Voter Rate cuts this year have put monetary policy in a very good
place; open to the idea that risks are on the downside, but Fed's
stance is right so far. (Nov 13th)
Encouraged by job reports and the pace of holiday spending.
(9th Jan 2020)

US economy was healthy, but external shocks could still pose

recession risks. Otherwise, the economy is converging to trend
growth rate as consumer spending is experiencing support from
Thomas Barkin (2021
N/A Richmond Hawkish Fed rate cuts. Barkin cited the US strikes on the Iranian officials
Voter)
as the sort of event that could lead to an economic "heart attack"
if the situation worsens. Elsewhere, Barkin said he is still
concerned about weak business investment and the high level of
policy uncertainty, warning that the US could talk itself into a
recession due to the current global uncertainty and domestic
politics. Several leading indicators were pointing to continued
 economic growth (like consumer confidence, consumer
spending and initial jobless claims). Barkin also said he wants to
see the effects of the insurance rate cuts before taking further
action.
(3rd Jan 2020)

Believes we are in a reasonable place on the balance sheet, and

policy is still accommodative, he is very focused on data.
Hard to find evidence of deteriorating credit quality at the
moment, but the Fed is watching the data
Echoed Harker, saying policy was mildly accommodative
following the recent cuts and that he doesn’t see rate cuts as
having a big effect on investment, which he believes is being
shadowed by the negative climate for business, trade
uncertainty, regulation and geopolitics. (Nov 12th)

It is a good time to pause with interest rates and to see how the
economy evolves, noting if there is a material change to the
outlook the Fed will reassess their monetary policy stance. Notes
the cut in interest rates this year is relatively unprecedented,
given the US economies state; will see in 6-9 months if the cuts
have the desired effects. At the October meeting believed that
uncertainty was less than in September, but this 'has far from
gone away'. (Nov 5th)

US economy is generally doing fine and the Fed should sit back
and let the economy do as it is doing until something changes;
he does not see a recession nearby. The Atlanta Fed President
said that in the event that businesses are rapidly changing their
outlook on hiring and spending, that consumer confidence is
weakening and that there are changes in savings, then a change
to the policy outlook would be warranted. Bostic echoed other
official commentary that there is a pretty high bar for any move
to hike rates until inflation moves higher, adding that the Fed
needs to guard against a drop in inflation expectations, meaning
it will want to let the economy "run and run hot". (13th Jan
2020)
Raphael Bostic (2021
N/A Atlanta Neutral
Voter) He would not have supported the last rate cut if he had a vote
on the policy committee. US economy is on solid footing and
that monetary policy is accommodative, while he added further
adjustments will be data dependent and that he is comfortable
with standing pat to weigh economic data over the upcoming
months. Furthermore, Bostic said he expects economic data
released before end of the quarter to boost GDP growth.
Consumer remains solid in his district, expected to continue;
business are not panicking on trade tensions, risks to the outlook
still remains. Fed should wait and see on future rate cuts; says
economic growth will remain in this good growth place where it
is for at least the next 6 to 12 months; sees no slowdown in
consumer spending and GDP ending at 2.2% (Nov 8th)