North America

Truckload Freight
Rate Index & Forecast
July 2021

Signal Report | July 2021 1

Hello, there!
Thank you for downloading the July 2021 Signal Report summary from DAT iQ.
The rate forecasts in this report are derived from market data and proprietary forecasting in the Benchmark Analytics product from DAT iQ.
Multiple machine-learning algorithms along with traditional time-series models are used to model and analyze historical contract rate data
from hundreds of leading shippers as well as other external macroeconomic variables. Detailed forecasts for Dry Van, Temp-Control, and
Intermodal are available only for DAT iQ users.

Contents
Market Forecast 03 Current Rate Indices 11 *Appendix 18
Rate Forecasts 05 *All-In Contract Rate Changes 13 *Data table: Historical & forecast 19
*Dry Van 07 *All-In Spot Rate Changes 14 data by mode
*Temp-Control 08 *All-In Spot Rate Premium by Mode 15
*Intermodal 09 *Contract Flow by Mode 16
*Included in full Pulse Signal report. Click
*YoY Market Inflation 10 *Spot Budget Risk 17 here to request the full Signal Report.

Signal Report | July 2021 2

Market Forecast: July 2021
The Domino Economy continues, as bottlenecks at ports and hubs and widespread supply chain disruptions are still occurring on
an almost daily basis. TL capacity does not appear to be increasing dramatically – even though the number of carriers has
increased, this is more of a shifting of capacity, not an addition. Adding to the mix is the continuing strong demand for both
durable and consumable products as well as services of all kinds – from restaurants to entertainment venues.

The recent merger of GlobalTranz and Worldwide Express along with the acquisition of Transplace by Uber Freight might indicate that there is a
consolidation in the brokerage and 3PL space. While there has been a flurry of M&A activity in the industry (listen to our most recent Freightvine
podcast with Bill Cassidy for more on this), we do not believe this will have any impact in the short term. More interestingly are some of the moves from
TL carriers into the LTL space – perhaps the line between the two modes will start blurring as e-commerce continues to rise. Also, while the number of
new carriers with operating authority has increased dramatically in 2021, the total capacity has not really moved as this is more of a shifting of leased
drivers to owner/operators.

While we have been expecting a turn in the market since 2021Q2, we are no longer holding our breath. Disruptions, delays and widespread Delta variant
outbreaks continue to push this back. With seasonal shipments entering the system a little earlier than most years, we do not see markets loosening this
year. We do not expect any return to “normal” until 2022Q1 when, hopefully, supply will eventually catch up with demand.

As we enter the Fall, shippers should brace themselves for rate increases across the modes. To minimize budget impact, we continue to recommend a
portfolio-based transportation procurement strategy (dedicated, contract and dynamic) as well as a mix of both asset and non-asset providers.

Learn more about DAT iQ analytics

Keep your finger on the pulse of the freight economy, with the industry’s only 360-view of the truckload marketplace. Schedule a demo
to see how DAT iQ benchmarks and forecasts can work for you. Request a demo to contact one of our experts.

Signal Report | July 2021 Contract rates are cooling off Contract Rates are saying steady Contract rates are heating up
3
Market Forecast

Dry Van Temp-Control Intermodal

The dry van market is still hot, but with As with Dry Van, Temp-Control Intermodal markets are starting to
signs that the temperature should start markets remain hot, though the rise although the NRD has
cooling, according to the SPR and NRD. pace of increases continues to decreased for two months in a row.
decline.

Contract rates are cooling off Contract Rates are saying steady Contract rates are heating up

Learn more about DAT iQ analytics

Keep your finger on the pulse of the freight economy, with the industry’s only 360-view of the truckload marketplace. Schedule a demo
to see how DAT iQ benchmarks and forecasts can work for you. Request a demo to contact one of our experts.

Signal Report | July 2021 4

Rate Forecasts
The following pages include 6 to 12-month forecasts for
the Spot Premium Ratio (SPR), New Rate Differential
(NRD), and Contract Rate Index (CRI) in the U.S. for dry
van, temp-control, and intermodal.

Signal Report | July 2021 5

 YoY Market Inflation

Market insights
• Making monthly year-over-year comparisons is a
dangerous game, as we are now one year past the
surging spot market of Q3 2020.

• As expected, the YoY comparisons are dropping –

but the actual rates are increasing.

• Spot rates are fluctuating around the $3.20 mark and

do not show any signs of dropping. While this is a
historical high, note that the Spot Premium Ratio
(comparing spot to contract) is not at a record high.

• Contract rates increased slightly by $0.04 to $2.48

per mile in June. While we would like to think this is
indicating the end of a rate cycle, we are doubtful.

• Rather, we believe that contract rates will remain at

this elevated level throughout the summer and fall.
Demand for all manners of products and services is
staying strong, and we do not see any major capacity
additions in the next quarter. It might not be until
2022 Q1 for any loosening of the Dry Van TL market.

Signal Report | July 2021 6

Rate Forecasts: Dry Van

DAT iQ users receive the full

Signal report every month.
The full report includes detailed
measurements of how much
pressure spot rates are placing
on contract rates, as well as a
comparison of new rates entering
the market versus rates exiting
the market. Request the full
With each metric, the Signal Signal Report.
Report provides forecasting to
help guide your transportation
decisions.

Signal Report | July 2021 7

Rate Forecasts: Temp-Control

DAT iQ users receive the full

Signal report every month.
The full report includes detailed
measurements of how much
pressure spot rates are placing
on contract rates, as well as a
comparison of new rates entering
the market versus rates exiting
the market. Request the full
With each metric, the Signal Signal Report.
Report provides forecasting to
help guide your transportation
decisions.
.

Signal Report | July 2021 8

Rate Forecasts: Intermodal

DAT iQ users receive the full

Signal report every month.
The full report includes detailed
measurements of how much
pressure spot rates are placing
on contract rates, as well as a
comparison of new rates entering
the market versus rates exiting
the market. Request the full
With each metric, the Signal Signal Report.
Report provides forecasting to
help guide your transportation
decisions.

Signal Report | July 2021 9

Current Rate Indices
The following pages summarize current and historical
rate trends compared to the January 2017 baseline.

Signal Report | July 2021 10

Current rate indices regions defined
Pacific Northwest Southwest Midwest

Southeast Northeast National

Signal Report | July 2021 11

All-in contract rate changes (vs. January 2017 baseline)

Request the full

Signal Report.

Signal Report | July 2021 12

All-in spot rate changes (vs. January 2017 baseline)

Request the full

Signal Report.

Signal Report | July 2021 13

All-in spot rate premiums by mode

Request the full

Signal Report.

Signal Report | July 2021 14

Contract flow by mode

Request the full

Signal Report.

Signal Report | July 2021 15

Spot budget risk

The Spot Budget Risk indices are

defined as the percent of Spot
Volume in a given period multiplied
by the Spot Price Premium over the
most current contract rate
estimates for the same period
across all DAT iQ members.
Request the full
Assuming contract rates are aligned with Signal Report.
budget targets (which is not a trivial
assumption since most shippers pad their
budget with some level of spot volume as a
consideration), Budget Risk indices reflect
unplanned freight expense impacts as a
result of price and volume influences of the
spot market. For example, a weighting of
volume and price assuming 20% of spot
volume occurred in aggregate at 20% price
spot premium will yield a 4% budget risk.

Signal Report | July 2021 16

Appendix

Signal Report | July 2021 17

Historical & forecast data by mode

Request the full

Signal Report.

Signal Report | July 2021 18

About Benchmark Analytics
As part of the DAT iQ suite of freight analytics services, Want more?
Benchmark Analytics provides unparalleled visibility to both
contract and spot transportation rates across the globe, Join other leading shippers
whether you are negotiating prices, assessing procurement utilizing DAT iQ to make the
strategies or seeking insights on true market conditions. best business decisions.

DAT analyzes almost $50B in actual shipment data each year to provide accurate Schedule a demo
and actionable information to transportation buyers — data which considers the
characteristics of the freight (e.g., inbound vs. outbound, asset vs. broker, direct
vs. multi-stop, etc.), not just averages on lanes. Specific solutions are available for
Shippers and Brokers/3PLs.

Signal Report | July 2021 19

The Signal Report is intended solely for informational purposes. All the data, figures, graphics, tables, analysis, conclusions, predictions and recommendations contained in this report are subject
to change as a result of the addition, deletion, or modification of data in current and/or future reports. DAT Solutions employs good faith efforts to verify and validate data quality; however, the
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Signal Report | July 2021 20