Tavi 1.

msoflios mzardi mosaxleoba

ramdeni adamiani cxovrobs dedamiwaze? aseTi kiTxva bevr

CvenTagans uCndeba, magram masze zusti pasuxis gacema praqtikulad
SeuZlebelia, radgan dedamiwis mosaxleobis raodenoba Zalian
swrafad icvleba. yovelwliurad, yoveldRiurad, yoveli saaTisa
da wuTis ganmavlobaSic ki msoflios sxvadasxva qveynebSi
ibadebian da kvdebian adamianebi, rasac saTanado koreqtivebi Seaqvs
mosaxleobis raodenobis maCvenebelSi. drois mixedviT mosaxleobis
raodenobis cvlilebas msoflioSi da calkeul qveynebSi
mosaxleobis raodenobis dinamika ewodeba.

miuxedavad mudmivi cvlilebisa, mecnierebi da specialistebi mainc

iZlevian met-naklebad sarwmuno cifrebs mosaxleobis savaraudo
raodenobis Sesaxeb. danamdvilebiTaa cnobili, rom 1999 wels
msoflios mosaxleobis raodenobam 6 miliards miaRwia, xolo 2010
wels am maCvenebelma 6,8 miliards gadaaWarba.

ris safuZvelze adgenen eqspertebi mosaxleobis raodenobas?

yvelasaTvis naTelia, rom mTels msoflioSi, an Tundac mis
calkeul nawilebSi, drois SedarebiT mcire monakveTSi
mosaxleobis daTvla fizikurad SeuZlebelia. mosaxleobis
raodenobis gansazRvra ZiriTadad sxvadasxva qveyanaSi Catarebuli
mosaxleobis aRweris monacemebsa da maT safuZvelze warmoebul
Sefasebebs eyrdnoba. mosaxleobis aRwerebi gansazRvruli
periodulobiT (rogorc wesi 10 weliwadSi erTxel) Tanamedrove
msoflios qveyanaTa did umravlesobaSi tardeba.

kacobriobis mTeli istoriis manZilze dedamiwaze arasdros

ucxovria imden adamians, ramdenic dRes cxovrobs. rogor
icvleboda msoflios mosaxleobis raodenoba droTa ganmavlobaSi?
am kiTxvaze pasuxis gacema advilad SeiZleba mosaxleobis
raodenobis dinamikis amsaxveli grafikis (ix. nax. 4) gacnobiT. masze
naTlad Cans, rom uZvelesi droidan XIX saukunemde mosaxleobis
raodenoba msoflioSi sakmaod nela izrdeboda da 1 miliards
arasdros aRemateboda. TiTqmis 100 weli dasWirda mosaxleobis 1
miliardidan 2 miliardamde gazrdas anu gaormagebas, rac XX
saukunis dasawyisSi moxda. gansakuTrebiT swrafi tempebiT xdeba
mosaxleobis raodenobis zrda 1950-iani wlebidan. savaraudoa, rom
mosaxleobis matebis maRali tempebi momavali ramodenime
aTwleulis ganmavlobaSic gagrZeldeba.

1
nax. 4. msoflio mosaxleobis raodenobis dinamika

7000

7000

6000
6000
6000
6000

5000
5000

milioni
4000

4000
milioni

3000

3000 2000
1625

900
1000
545 610
425
2000

1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

weli

1000
530

150
5 9 14 27 50
4 4. 2 4. 5
0
8000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3 000

2000

1000

1000

2000
Zv.w.aR Cv.w.aR
weli

TiTqmis 12 aTasi weliwadi dasWirda imas, rom mosaxleobis

raodenoba dedamiwaze erTi miliardi gamxdariyo. mecnierTa azriT
es daaxlovebiT 1820 wels moxda. mosaxleobis Semdegi erTi mlrd-
iT gazrdisaTvis ki erT saukuneze cota meti xani gaxda sakmarisi:
1927 wels msoflio mosaxleobis raodenobam 2 mlrd Seadgina. 1960
wels, e.i. 33 wlis Semdeg dedamiwaze mosaxleobis raodenobam ukve
3 miliards miaRwia. gavida kidev 14 weli da 1974 wels dedamiwas 4
memiliarde mcxovrebi moevlina, 1987 wels (kidev 13 weliwadSi)
mosaxleobis raodenoba 5 mlrd gaxda, 1999 wels ki (12 weliwadSi)
- 6 mlrd.
zemoTmoyvanili monacemebi aseve gviCvenebs, rom mosaxleobis
gaormagebas 1-dan 2 mlrd-mde 107 weli dasWirda, Semdgom
gaormagebas 4 mlrd-mde ki – mxolod 47 weli. es maCveneblebi
TvalnaTliv asaxaven msoflio mosaxleobis raodenobis zrdis
Zalian swraf tempebs.

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mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraoba. demografiuli gadasvlis modeli

ratom icvleba mosaxleobis raodenoba dedamiwaze? mosaxleobis

raodenobis cvlilebas ganapirobebs, erTis mxriv, axalSobilTa
raodenoba, e.i. Sobadobis done da, meore mxriv, gardacvlilTa
raodenoba, e.i. sikvdilianobis done. Sobadobis siWarbe
sikvdilianobasTan SedarebiT gansazRvravs mosaxleobis matebis
odenobas, anu bunebriv matebas. Tu Sobadoba Camouvardeba
sikvdilianobas saqme gvaqvs bunebriv klebasTan. Sobadobisa da
sikvdilianobis process mosaxleobis bunebriv moZraobas
uwodeben.

ukanasknel wlebSi msoflios mosaxleoba yovelwliurad 80-100

milioni adamianiT izrdeba. es metia vidre bevri didi qveynis,
magaliTad, didi britaneTis, safrangeTis an italiis mTeli
mosaxleobis raodenoba. Tumca, mosaxleobis mateba yvela qveyanaSi
erTnairi tempiT da masStabiT ar xdeba. sxvadasxva qveyanaSi
mosaxleobis cvlilebebis erTmaneTTan Sedarebis gasaadvileblad
specialistebi amjobineben, rom Sobadobis, sikvdilianobisa da
bunebrivi matebis maCveneblebi saSualod yovel 1000 kacze
gadaiangariSon da promilebSi (‰) gamosaxon. ufro iSviaTia, roca
es maCveneblebi yovel 100 kacze gaiangariSeba da, Sesabamisad,
procentebSi (%) gamoisaxeba.

rogor gansxvavdeba mosaxleobis bunebrivi moZraoba qveynebisa da

regionebis mixedviT? mravali, gansakuTrebiT ganviTarebuli,
qveynis magaliTze dayrdnobiT mecnierebma SeimuSaves mosaxleobis
zrdis amsaxveli suraTi, romelsac demografiuli gadasvlis
modeli ewodeba. es modeli, romelic warmodgenilia diagramis
saxiT (ix. nax. 5), asaxavs mosaxleobis raodenobis cvlilebis oTx
ZiriTad etaps, romelic gaiara da mosalodnelia rom gaiaros
bevrma qveyanam.

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nax. 5. mosaxleobis demografiuli gadasvlis modeli

etapi 1 2 3 4
Sobadobisa da Sobadoba
40‰
sikvdili-anobis
wliuri tempebi
promilebSi
sikvdilianoba
(‰)

mosaxleobis bunebrivi
zrdis mrudi mateba

bunebrivi
kleba
‰

0 ‰
magaliTebi mcirericxovani egvipte, kenia, brazilia aSS, iaponia,
CamorCenili indoeTi germania, italia
sazogadoebebi
Sobadobis tempi maRali maRali mcirdeba dabali an
Zalian dabali
sikvdilianobis maRali ecema swrafad ecema naklebad dabali
tempi swrafad
bunebrivi mateba mcire mateba an Zalian swrafi Senelebuli neli mateba,
stagnacia mateba mateba stagnacia an
neli kleba
Sobadobis meurneobis (ZiriTadad soflis gaumjobesebuli ojaxis dagegmva.
tempis meurneobis) sawarmoeblad bevri samedicino da jandacvis kargi
cvlilebis bavSvis yolaa saWiro. amas Tan sasursaTo isitema. qalebis
mizezebi axlavs religiuri da socialuri uzrunvelyofa. rolis zrda.
mxardaWera. ar arsebobs ojaxis naklebi gviani
dagegmva moTxovnileba qorwinebebi
bavSvebze
sikvdilianobis daavadebebi, gaumjobesebuli jandacva, kargi jandacva.
tempis SimSili dabali wyalmomarageba, sanitaruli stabiluri
cvlilebis samedicino pirobebi, bavSvebis sikvdilianobis sasursaTo
mizezebi kultura. kleba uzrunvelyofa
bavSvebis
maRali
sikvdilianoba
SeniSvna: mecnierebi demografiuli gadasvlis Tanamedrove etapze sul ufro
xSirad gamoyofen gadasvlis me-5-e da Semdgom etapebsac, rac bevr qveyanaSi
axali demografiuli situaciis – sikvdilianobasTan SedarebiT Sobadobis sul
ufro zrdadi CamorCenis – aRmniSvnelia.

pirvel etapze adgili aqvs Zalian maRal Sobadobas da aseTive

maRal sikvdilianobas. Sesabamisad bunebrivi matebis tempi dabalia,

4
risi mizezebic diagramaSia moyvanili. mosaxleobis aseTi zrda
damaxasiaTebelia industriulis wina (preindustriuli)
qveynebisaTvis, romelTa raodenoba Tanamedrove msoflioSi sul
ufro da ufro mcirdeba. meore etapze Sobadobis maRali
maCveneblebi SenarCunebulia, sikvdilianoba ki mniSvnelovnad
klebulobs, rac iwvevs Zalian maRal bunebriv matebas da
tranziciis anu gadasvlis dawyebas. mesame etapze Sobadobis
maCvenebeli mkveTrad ecema, sikvdilianobisa ki- SedarebiT
naklebad. mosaxleobis matebis tempi mcirdeba, gansakuTrebiT
mesame etapis bolos. meore da mesame etapebze myofi qveynebi,
rogorc wesi, ganviTarebad samyaros ganekuTvnebian. meoTxe etapi
Sobadobis Semdgomi SemcirebiTa da sikvdilianobis dabali
maCvenebliT xasiaTdeba. mosaxleobis mateba mcirea, zogjer
SesaZloa adgili hqondes mosaxleobis klebasac. msoflios
ganviTarebuli, e.w. postindustriuli (industriulis Semdgomi)
qveynebi demografiuli gadasvlis swored am etapze imyofebian.

amrigad, mosaxleobis demografiuli gadasvlis modeli iZleva

ganzogadebul suraTs, Tu:
• rogor unda icvlebodes bunebrivi moZraoba da mosaxleobis
raodenoba ama Tu im qveyanaSi;
• romeli faqtorebi iwveven mosaxleobis raodenobis cvlilebis
ama Tu im reJims demografiuli gadasvlis konkretul etapze
(ix. diagramis komentarebi);
• ganviTarebis ra doneze imyofeba, savaraudod, esa Tu is qveyana.
amave dros, gasaTvaliswinebelia, rom zogierT konkretul
SemTxvevaSi, gansakuTrebiT evropis yofil socialistur
qveynebSi, demografiuli gadasvlis faza ar asaxavs qveynis
ekonomikuri ganviTarebis dones. magaliTad, saqarTvelos da
belgias daaxloebiT erTnairi demografiuli reJimi aqvT, magram
maTi ekonomikuri ganviTarebis doneebi Zalian gansxvavebulia.