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ICEP Dawn Analysis

DAWN EDITORIALS PLUS OPINIONS
DECONSTRUCTION

Dated: Tuesday 07July, 2020

BY: ICEP Analysts Rabia Kalhoro & M.Usman.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Note:
We pick out Opinions from different Newspapers
related to:

#Competitive Exams
#Essay Writing
#Current Affairs
#Historical episodes
#Pakistan Affairs
# General Knowledge
# Global Issues
# Geopolitics
# International Relations
# Foreign Policy

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Slowing trajectory? | Dawn Editorial
Introduction:

AS the official figures for daily new Covid-19 infections fall across the country, the
prime minister wants to ensure that transmission rates continue to slow down as Eid
approaches. At a visit to the NCOC over the weekend, Mr Khan said there should be
strict implementation of SOPs and that officials should undertake the necessary
administrative actions for smart lockdowns. He also stressed on the need for a strong
awareness campaign to prevent any ‘resurgence’ of the disease during Eidul Azha
when animal markets are flooded with purchasers.

Key Points:

▪ The official figures for Covid-19 infections are indeed looking positive, but are
in sharp contrast to the trend in most other countries where strict lockdowns are
not in place.
▪ According to the WHO, the world saw the biggest jump in daily new Covid-19
cases on June 28 with 212,326 cases in 24 hours. Given what we know about
the fast transmission of the virus, more clarity is needed on why Pakistan’s
official cases are decreasing. This is a question officials and epidemiologists
should examine very closely. It may well be that the government’s smart
lockdowns have had some effect, and there could be other contributory factors
as well.
▪ But a report by BBC Urdu, which has yet to be denied or corroborated
(certify) by the government, revealed that graveyard burial figures from June
2020 in Lahore and Karachi showed a considerable increase when compared to
data from the previous year in the same month. While Lahore registered
1,744 deaths in June 2019, this year there were 3,723 — with just 487
recorded officially as Covid-19 deaths.
▪ Similarly, in Karachi, burial data in 32 government graveyards showed
2,375 deaths in June 2019 and 3,594 burials in June 2020. Official Covid-19
burials in these graveyards were recorded at 118. An official quoted in the
report said some families hide Covid-19 death certificates from graveyard
authorities because of the stigma attached, therefore, it is likely that more than
118 were coronavirus deaths. The Edhi Foundation in Karachi, too,
lent(granted) weight to this insight by saying that morgues(burial place)
processed more than twice the number of bodies in June 2020 than the previous
year.

Critical Analysis: In light of this information and given that testing is far from the
promised 100,000 per day, authorities must investigate why the official figures are so
low. Why are more burials taking place in graveyards in major cities this year than in
the previous year? Is it possible that some of them are uncounted Covid-19 fatalities?
Or is there a possibility that patients with other illnesses are succumbing to them
because they were reluctant to visit hospitals or seek medical attention?

Recommendations:The government must look at the figures and determine whether

or not they are linked to Covid-19. It is far too early to be optimistic — especially
when there are fears that lockdowns may be relaxed in the run-up to Eid.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Railway revamp | Dawn Editorial
Introduction:

THE association of train drivers has called upon;

the Pakistan Railways authorities;

to focus on “rehabilitation of the [train] track for the safety of passengers, line
staff and rolling stock” as the number of minor and major accidents involving
significant loss of human lives and railway property continues to rise for some years.

▪ The association has also warned of protests if the drivers are asked to operate
passenger or cargo trains on the existing tracks without ensuring regular repairs
to make them less dangerous. Given the present state of affairs at PR, it seems
highly unlikely that anyone from among the railway authorities is paying heed
to this call for making the dilapidated(damaged) tracks safer for train
operations.

Detailed Analysis: The railway is in a total mess because of a number of factors. For
starters, it has failed to keep pace with rapidly changing technologies, improve
services and invest in ground infrastructure or efficient rolling stock to make its
operations safer. Once a popular mode of travel for a large majority of middle-class
families, people now avoid trains for fear of their lives.

▪ Similarly, in the last couple of decades or so, PR has completely lost its cargo
business to road haulage owing to the shortage of freight(transport goods)
trains and a highly erratic service.
▪ Meanwhile, frequent political interventions for short-term gains, red tape,
corruption, a highly inefficient management and a broken business model have
made matters worse. Unscrupulous (immoral) (labour unions linked with
political parties have also played their part in its downturn.
▪ Although the government is working to replace the ground infrastructure of
the main line (ML-1) from Peshawar to Karachi with a Chinese loan, hopes
for a sustainable turnaround hinge (part of structure) on a complete break
from the past.

Recommendations to Govt:

✓ The revival of the railway is not possible without the government foregoing its
tight control over its management and freeing it from the clutches of an
inefficient civil bureaucracy so that it may operate independently and make
timely decisions in the manner of any private corporate entity.
✓ Moreover, the government would also need to invest in and develop dedicated
freight corridors to win back the massive cargo business to make it profitable.
✓ Last but not least, the railway management should be responsible for only
maintenance of the ground infrastructure. Privatising cargo and passenger train
operations needs to be given serious thought. Without a complete overhaul,
there is little hope for a functioning railway in the country.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Pressure on media | Dawn Editorial

Introduction:

THE state of media freedom in Pakistan today is far from satisfactory. The last two
years have seen growing pressures of all kinds on the media leading to shrinking
(flinching) space for freedom of expression. Journalism in a democracy is all about
speaking truth to power, but doing so in this country carries consequences.

Key Note:

▪ The latest in a series of incidents signalling a growing lack of state tolerance is

the suspension of the broadcast licence for Channel 24. Pemra has pulled
the channel off air citing some licensing issues but the channel management
says they are closing transmission because they cannot face “blackmailing”
from the government. Hundreds of people will now lose their jobs.
▪ The trend unfortunately is quite clear. The present government has
piled(concentrated)pressure on the media through all means available adding
to the existing financial woes of the industry. Recent years have witnessed
unprecedented job losses and cutbacks within the industry. While some of this
may be attributed to ‘market correction’, much of it is a result of policies
pursued by the government in terms of advertisements and non-payment of
arrears(unpaid services).

Detailed Analysis:

At the same time, state pressure to toe the official line and not cross some red lines
has led to self-censorship and muted critique by a majority of news organisations.
Those that have resisted such pressures have faced punishment through various
means including financial ones. Threats of physical violence are also frequently
reported. All this undermines democracy and promotes a culture of intolerance and
abhorrence(hate) for dissent. The culture flows down from the state to citizens at
large, and the media becomes an easy prey for scapegoating(to be blamed). With
the digital revolution gathering pace with each passing day, now is a good
opportunity for the government to facilitate the media so it gains strength and adds
greater value to the practice of democracy in Pakistan.

Recommendation:

Thee PTI government therefore needs to review its attitudes towards the media
industry before hard won-freedoms are put under threat.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

A scholar’s resignation | The News Editorial
Introduction:
The detailed resignation letter by Dr Pervez Hoodhboy, a distinguished professor at
the Forman Christian College University in Lahore for the past eight years and
one of the top scientists in the country, gives us an insight into why our system of
higher education is in such a terrible state.

Key Note:
▪ Dr Hoodhboy, who resigned from the university after being issued a one year,
non-renewable contract this year, has blamed petty rivalries (small
clashes)within the university as the reason for his exit.
▪ If anyone deserves to be called a public intellectual with a conscience in
Pakistan, it has to be Pervez Hoodbhoy. At the age of 70, he is still full of
energy and imparts his ideas and knowledge to audiences and students with an
academic zeal not normally seen in a country such as Pakistan.
▪ He is one of the few distinguished professors of Pakistan who are respected
and well-known in other countries too. He has been a proponent(advocate) of
freedom of speech and has delivered lectures, written articles and books to
promote a scientific attitude in Pakistani society.

Contributions of Hoodhby:
It is utterly unbelievable that his contract at the FCC University was cut short on
the flimsy accusation that he lacks the academic credentials and seriousness to teach.
His three-year contract was reduced to just one-year and that too with a proviso(legal
condition) that it would be nonrenewable. Perhaps the university had the rather naive
notion that he would accept this to secure at least one year’s employment. They failed
to realize that securing a one-year contract would be the least of his priorities. They
also failed to understand Dr Hoodbhoy’s record of standing up for injustices in
society, be it against academics, ethnic or religious minority groups, or students.

Critical Analysis:

If professors that hold influence within an institution are capable of acting against a
man of the calibre of Dr Hoodhboy, then we must question where we stand in terms
of academics. Clearly personal factors including rivalry is enough for the dismissal of
a person whose immense knowledge in both the sciences and humanities would
obviously benefit his students. One wonders whether those behind such a misguided
and petty attempt to remove Hoodbhoy from the university even realised the backlash
this would have and how badly it would tarnish the image of the university both
nationally and internationally.

Conclusion: Dr Hoodbhoy is one of the most prominent academics in Pakistan and

treating him thus will have raised serious questions about the academic integrity of
the university and its management. This case is perhaps the biggest indictment of the
state of higher education in Pakistan – something Dr Hoodbhoy has been writing
about for years.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Russia emerging as the new agricultural epicenter | Opinion
By: Sumeera Asghar Roy

From CSS point of view it is helpful in Current Affairs and Essay

Quick Notes:

What is grain?
A grain is a small,
hard, dry seed. A
grain crop is a grain-
producing plant. The
two main types of
commercial grain
crops are cereals
and legumes. The
term specifically
refers to seeds of
plants of the grass family, such as wheat, corn, and rice; seeds of non-edible grass
species are also often called "grains."

Infographics:

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Introduction to the Topic:

Today, Russia is a major player in the global wheat and grain market. Its numbers
leave behind all global powers. The credit for this goes to the grain industry of
Russia, which has brought back the confidence in an erstwhile dead economy, by
bolstering the agriculture sector.

Russian Agriculture Production:Massive Developments

▪ Russian agricultural production has increased around 20% in the last half a
decade, despite the broader recession. Russian President Vladimir Putin
expressed his joy by dubbing it a “breakthrough”, while discussing these
figures in a meeting with growers and farmers.
▪ In 2017, Russia’s revenues from agriculture exports reached over $20 billion.
Grains have been the star of the show, as Russia became the number one
exporter of wheat for the first time in 2016. Russians have started to underline
that, for them, “grain is now second oil”.
▪ Russia’s wheat export exceeded that of the United States and the European
Union, respectively. Russia currently holds a 22% share of the global wheat
market with the EU and the US, accounting for 14% and 13%,
respectively. This is a remarkable achievement for a country that was close to
becoming a net food importer a few years ago.

Massive Investment and grain Production’s Targets:

This episode encouraged Russia to invest adequately in the country’s agriculture

sector with a $70 billion investment package to boost productivity in the agriculture
sector via improved infrastructure and logistics. The Agriculture Ministry reported in
the third quarter of 2019 that it is targeting grain production of 150.3 million tonnes
by 2023, a conspicuous attempt that could prove to be instrumental in achieving the
country’s target of $45 billion agricultural export by 2024.

Since the collapse of the USSR, the agricultural sector has gone through a lot of
transformation, from “an insufficient collective model to the sufficient capitalist
model.”

Islamabad should ban – or starts with controlling – imports. Then

gradually, there should be a complete ban on importing cereals and
vegetables, complemented with proper planning and kisaan packages.
This can prove to be a turnaround for the sluggish economy of Pakistan.

Steps Russian Govt has taken:

✓ According to the head of SovEcon, an agricultural consultancy in Russia, the

agriculture sector remains in private hands, which boosted the competition in
the country.
✓ Now the role of the state has increased in the agriculture sector. It is another
positive for the Russian economy.
✓ In 2014, Moscow decided to ban agricultural imports from nations which had
sanctioned Russia, giving an additional boost to the local growers.

History of Russian Agriculture Sector at a glance:

ICEP Dawn Analysis

 ➢ Back in history, Russia was a big agrarian exporter. Then a Bolshevik
collective approach wiped out farming culture and created an inefficient
cooperative system, which forced the Soviet Union to import grain and other
food items.
➢ After the collapse of the Soviet Union, farmers and growers had to learn
modern agriculture growing system and reforms. They travelled the world
to study the best management practices systems, to learn about the private
ownership and mainly how people work for themselves.

Russian Strategies for Development of Grain Market:

1. Over the decades, the government made agriculture a national priority and
showed support by offering subsidies, along with investment in machinery and
land.
2. The government recognized the newfound strength of local competitors. One
proof of this was the closing of an American trade group after 26 years of
operations.
3. Russia has increased its market share in the Middle East and Africa.
4. Russian weather conditions, and its geographical location, helped them beat the
competitors in America.
5. They grabbed the market by lowering prices, and banning agricultural imports
from western counties.
6. Now Russia is targeting other distant markets, such as Indonesia and Mexico.

What Pakistan can Learn from Russian Model:

Pakistan has excellent potential for grain and vegetable production. This is where we
can learn from Russian practices, especially from the fact that they started doing well
after banning imports from western counties.

Steps Pakistan's Govt needs to take:

i. The local farmers and growers seized the opportunity, and began growing
grains – wheat, barley, et al. – now they are the leaders in grain production.
The same can be followed in Pakistan.
ii. Islamabad should ban – or starts with controlling – imports.
iii. Then gradually, there should be a complete ban on importing cereals and
vegetables, complemented with proper planning and kisaan packages.
iv. This can prove to be a turnaround for the sluggish economy of Pakistan.

Similarities between Pakistan and Russia:

Pakistani and Russian agriculture sectors have many similarities.

▪ Neither country is a stable economy.

▪ Food security is a common problem for both –
▪ Russia still imports more food than it exports.
ICEP Dawn Analysis
 ▪ But Russia is on track, approaching its goal of feeding itself.
▪ In the last five years, Russia has become self-sufficient in the poultry industry.
If Russian agriculture can grow from scratch, why not Pakistan’s?

❖ Wheat is staple food outside Pakistan as well. The whole of South Asia eats
wheat and rice. Therefore, we can earn a good share of our trembling
economy by focusing on grain, vegetable, and poultry industry.

Conclusion:

The time has come to explore every available option to help Pakistan’s economy. By
initiating a comprehensive plan, and a channelized approach, in collaboration with
astute think-tanks, who know agriculture in a real and proper sense, with modern
application and competition, Pakistan too can take strides towards self-sufficiency.

The author is a doctoral candidate at China Agricultural University, Beijing

ICEP Dawn Analysis

The pendulum of tricky times | Dawn Opinion
Jawed Naqvi

From CSS point of view it is helpful in Current Affairs and I.R

Topic : Changing dynamics of international polity :

swinging pendulum of India

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

Outline

▪ Shifting sands of Indian polity in International arena

▪ Increasing Role Of US has left many countries devastated
▪ History of Indo-US bolstering ties
▪ Strategic Alliance of India with Russia : loosening grip of US
▪ India’s helplessness for Trump’s re-election : Unlike China
▪ John Bolton’s revelations : China can tip the balance of US
▪ Europe’s tilt towards China : Indo-US strategic aims
unachievable
▪ Suggestion to India to limit its troops forbidding for US
▪ Modi’s Hindutva Policy needs to fix its swaying pendulum

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Shifting sands of Indian polity in International arena

ONE need not look to the deadly scuffle between Indian and Chinese soldiers in the
inhospitable terrain of the Galwan Valley to explain the prevailing pro-US chorus in
New Delhi. It has been the quest of India’s weathercock strategists ever since the
demise of the Soviet Union to somehow replace Pakistan as South Asia’s blue-
eyed boy (a person highly regarded by someone and treated with special favour.)
in Washington’s calculations.

Increasing Role Of US has left many countries devastated

This ignores the trail of political malevolence and social damage the US embrace has
left Pakistan with. Egypt, Latin America and Africa have been the other victims. Iran
wouldn’t be where it is but for the Shah’s mindless embrace of Washington and vice
versa. Nor would mediaeval era polity be tolerated in Saudi Arabia without US
support.

History of Indo-US bolstering ties

• Vajpayee’s secret missive to Bill Clinton, which the US media creditably

revealed to the world, that India’s 1998 nuclear tests targeted China, was only
one of the telling episodes of India fancying its chances with the United States.
• A subsequent love call was sent out by the Vajpayee administration to Bush
Junior, offering Indian bases to the US to launch the fateful war on Afghanistan
after the 9/11 terror attacks. It is another matter that the US opted for Pakistan
as the launch pad for the miscued (fail to execute) offensive — to a very
unenthusiastic Pakistan, one might add. Wasn’t it the nightclub bouncer-like
Richard Armitage who threatened Pervez Musharraf to come on board or
have Pakistan reduced to rubble?

The enthusiasm with which Indian officials are showering rose petals on a dream is
so palpable that it can be seen from a satellite.

Now, after suffering a forbidding toll in men and money, Washington has
accepted the futility of its tragic venture in Afghanistan. In fact, the pendulum has
swung so sharply in the opposite direction that Donald Trump is courting the very
zealots (fanatic) the US had targeted as alleged collaborators in destroying the World
Trade Centre.

This awareness of the pendulum’s wayward movement seems to have eluded

(avoided) New Delhi. The enthusiasm with which Indian officials are showering rose
petals on a dream is so palpable that it can be seen from a satellite.

Strategic Alliance of India with Russia : loosening grip of US

What’s taking time? There is Russia, of course, with its sway over India’s defence
apparatus. Moreover, Vladimir Putin has also pulled India into the orbit of the
Shanghai club. There is also the perennial US demand that India embrace more
ICEP Dawn Analysis
politically costly neoliberal economic policies. Above all, the pendulum is being
powered by the existential crisis the US itself faces, in which China alone seems
to be in a position to nurse it back to health.

India’s helplessness for Trump’s re-election : Unlike China

India, despite its efforts, has no leverage to assist Trump’s re-election. Although
Trump did get his quota of anti-malarial pills from Modi, the latter cannot ensure the
non-resident Indian vote for a second term to the president in November. American
NRIs have been predominantly a pro-Democratic lot. China, of course, can tip
the vote, like Khomeini did against Carter in 1980. Going by John Bolton’s
revelations, and even without them, Trump clearly would love Xi Jinping to bail him
out, which Xi can do if he so chooses before the US polls later this year. However,
China may opt to help Joe Biden instead, preferably with a promise to ease the
anti-China Asian pivot that John Pilger has described in his compelling
documentary: The Coming War on China. Xi, like his predecessors, is too
nuanced to easily pick up farm produce from the US to placate(pacify) Trump’s
constituency.

John Bolton’s revelations : China can tip the balance of US

The bind makes the alleged Russian influence on US elections look like a prank.
China knows how in 1980, Jimmy Carter fell into bad odour with Iran with his ill-
fated commando attempt to rescue American hostages from the US embassy in
Tehran. Iran helped Ronald Reagan’s election to spite Carter, and released the
captives only after Carter accepted defeat in an election he could have won with
Iran’s indulgence. Reagan rewarded Tehran with the Iran-Contra deal, which
helped both sides to further degrade Iraq’s military apparatus. The fall guy was Capt
Oliver North.

From Bolton’s ringside notes, it may be inferred that China can tip the balance, if it
so chooses, just as Khomeini once did. Joe Biden naturally took a pre-emptive course
on Bolton’s claims, saying: “If these accounts are true, it’s not only morally
repugnant (offensive) , it’s a violation of Donald Trump’s sacred duty to the
American people.”

Europe’s tilt towards China : Indo-US strategic aims unachievable

The Washington, D.C. that the post-Soviet India looks keen to link up with has been
slighted also by the European Union. While welcoming China to its gradual
opening from the post-Covid shutdown, Europe has pointedly excluded the US.
India too doesn’t figure in the list of countries welcome to Europe in the near future.
The nation that Trump described as the source of the “plague” stands invited but not
the country that Trump leads. This is how the cookie crumbles for India’s strategic
community and its assorted analysts, as it does indeed for the rest of the world.

Suggestion to India to limit its troops forbidding for US

What is to be done? Pakistani economist Akbar Zaidi may have hit the nub of the
issue in a TV discussion on why Bangladesh was doing better than Pakistan. He
said: “Sab sey pehli cheez: unhon ne fauj ki chhutti kar di.” (First of all,
Bangladesh effectively disbanded its army.) The answer while absolutely valid for
the entire cluster of developing nations will not wash with India in its current mood.
Given the fabled inviolability (incorruptibility) of Pakistan’s military, Akbar Zaidi

ICEP Dawn Analysis

got away unharmed. A similar thought would be forbidding for anyone making the
suggestion to India, currently.

Modi’s Hindutva Policy needs to fix its swaying pendulum

There’s still hope though. Prime Minister Modi has done well to negotiate a
promising disengagement with China. Another landmark move by him,
Hindutva’s exigencies(state of emergency) permitting, would be to implement
the agreement on Jammu and Kashmir that Manmohan Singh and Gen
Musharraf had all but clinched. Modi’s lasting legacy could be a prosperous India
at peace with its neighbours and, potentially, with its citizens too. Alternatively, he
can repair America’s grandfather clock and fix its erratic pendulum.

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

Vocabulary description
Weathercock (n) : a weathervane in the form of a cockerel.

Malevolence (n) Quality of wishing evil or harm to another.

Nuanced (adj) Characterized by subtle shades of meaning or expression.

Ringside (adj) Offering a good view of a performance or event

ICEP Dawn Analysis

 Project Force: Could the world survive a nuclear
winter? | Opinion
Al-Jazeera

From CSS point of view it is helpful in Current Affairs and I.R

Topic : The consequences of a nuclear war would extend

far beyond the blast itself, killing millions of people across
the globe.

by Alex Gatopoulos

Catastrophic impacts of Nuclear War on environment

Firestorms triggered by burning cities create a huge plume of smoke, soot and ash.
The plume rises above the clouds, into the upper atmosphere of the planet, where it
will stay, encircling the globe, shielding the Earth from the Sun's light, cooling the
planet.

This is the scenario we could expect following a nuclear clash between nations.

The term nuclear winter was coined in the 1980s as scientists began to realise that
the horrors of a nuclear war would not be confined to explosive blasts and
radiation.

As climate prediction models become more powerful and sophisticated, scientists

have been able to examine more closely what would happen in a nuclear conflict
between two antagonists. In the past, most scenarios focused on potentially
apocalyptic (pertaining to the end of the world) conflicts between Russia
and the United States.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

But new models now predict that even a very limited nuclear war would have
drastic knock-on effects for global agriculture and dire consequences for life on
Earth.

Anatomy of a nuclear blast

A blast from a modern nuclear weapon would produce a vast amount of energy
almost instantly. The effects would be devastating.

First, a blinding flash of light and radiation in the form of heat from the initial
explosion would produce temperatures as high as that of the Sun. Wood, plastics,
fabrics and flammable liquids would all ignite.

This would almost immediately be followed by the blast wave, moving at several
times the speed of sound. A wall of compressed superhot air, the wave would gather

ICEP Dawn Analysis

up rubble and anything moveable, levelling all buildings within the blast zone and
killing everyone in its path for several kilometres.

Within 20 to 30 minutes, a shroud of highly radioactive ash would begin to fall,

blanketing both the blast site and the surrounding area, tens of kilometres
downwind, and very quickly killing anyone caught outdoors who had somehow
managed to survive the initial explosion.

For people outside the blast zone, the situation would also be grim. All electronic
equipment would cease to function as the electromagnetic pulse fried every
electronic circuit. No phones, internet, computers or cars would work.

Hospitals would be quickly overwhelmed, with the vast majority of the population
needing some kind of medical care. Food would disappear as logistical supply trains
stopped working. What little there was would be contaminated by the radioactive
fallout, along with any water.

In the case of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, for example, it is
estimated that between 50 million and 125 million people would die.

What comes afterwards?

Those would be the initial, local effects of a nuclear conflict on a population. But the
ensuing nuclear winter would take it to a whole new level.

The vast plumes of dark soot entering the upper atmosphere would spread not just
regionally but right around the planet within months. The resulting darkening of
the sky would severely affect harvests, even in areas nowhere near the conflict zone.

In one recent simulation, global harvests plummeted (plunge) between 20

percent and 40 percent for at least a decade. Temperatures dropped dramatically as
the climate shifted, triggering widespread drought, a worldwide famine ( great
hunger) and the death of tens of millions more people.

When Mount Tambora erupted in Indonesia in 1815, the ash it spewed into the atmosphere cooled the
Earth by 0.7 degrees centigrade. Even a "limited" nuclear exchange could result in a temperature drop of
up to five degrees centigrade [Al Jazeera]

ICEP Dawn Analysis

If these scenarios seem far-fetched, consider that the 1815 volcanic eruption of
Tambora in Indonesia ruined harvests as far away as the US with 1816 known as the
"Year Without Summer" as temperatures dropped sharply around the planet and
the resultant failed harvests triggered severe famine across Europe.

The Tambora eruption lowered the global temperature by 0.7 degrees Celsius. The
estimated temperature drop from a "limited" nuclear exchange is reckoned to be
anywhere between 2 and 5 degrees Celsius.

The Pakistan vs India scenario

The latest studies show that there does not need to be a large-scale nuclear war to
have this effect: A possible nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan is the
scenario most of these studies have used as their prime example.

Why India and Pakistan? They are traditional enemies, with long-standing and
unresolved territorial disputes between them. They are nuclear-armed, and both
adhere to military doctrines that could potentially trigger a conflict.

India implements a pro-active or "Cold Start" doctrine for conventional attacks on

Pakistan. This involves placing military units as close to the area of operations as
possible, coupled with the pre-placing and stockpiling of military materiel such as
ammunition, medical supplies, anything that can be used to sustain an advance.

This allows for the swift deployment of armed forces and is designed to deliver a
short, sharp, severe shock to the enemy before international diplomatic pressure
can halt the conflict.

There is any number of scenarios where these historical foes could or would use
nuclear weapons, but a more likely one might begin with a conventional attack by
India, whose army is three times the size that of its adversary.

Geographically, Pakistan is a long, thin country that is relatively easy to cut in two
using armoured thrusts, most likely through India's Thar desert in Rajasthan, near
Pakistan's narrowest point.

Finding itself in danger of being overrun, Pakistan could offset its smaller armed
forces by blunting any offensive with smaller, tactical nuclear weapons. These are
designed to destroy enemy concentrations while inflicting minimal damage on the
surrounding area, since it would be likely that Pakistan would be using them on or
near its own soil.

It is this combination of India's shortcut to large-scale military action, combined

with Pakistan's reliance on battlefield nuclear weapons that has the potential for a
conflict to rapidly escalate.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

A nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan could kill as many as 125 million people, making it one of the
deadliest events in human history [Al Jazeera]

Regardless of how India reacts once struck, the taboo over using these weapons
would be broken, and the threshold for further use by both sides would be far
lower.

Command-and-control centres, supply nodes and industrial areas would be

considered legitimate targets. Most of these - ports, railway junctions, factories,
headquarters and seats of government - are located in cities, whose populations
would be considered forfeit.

In a conflict that goes nuclear between the two countries, a recent academic paper
puts the potential death toll as high as 125 million people. To put that into
perspective, the current annual global death rate from all causes is about 56 million
people. In such a conflict, these casualties would occur in a matter of days.

As terrible as all that is, the greatest damage to the environment would be from the
vast amount of superheated ash and soot that would rise from these destroyed
cities, swept up by a nuclear firestorm into the upper atmosphere.

Darkness and starvation

The impact of even such a "limited" nuclear conflict would be devastating for the
Earth as a whole. With global dimming, harvests would fail across the planet.

Basic staples would be severely hit as one study shows that China's wheat
production would halve in the first year after a conflict, its rice production dropping
by 21 percent.

The US's corn supply would drop by as much as 20 percent. International supply
chains would falter as food became scarce. Hoarding, panic buying and price
gouging would become commonplace, leading to further scarcity and marginalising
the world's poor who would struggle to survive the ordeal.

In 2016, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organisation

estimated that 815 million people were food-insecure. They would all be

ICEP Dawn Analysis

put at far greater risk as food supplies rapidly dwindled in the aftermath of such a
conflict.

Another major, cascading effect of even a partial nuclear winter would be the
depletion of the ozone layer, allowing crops to be further damaged by unfiltered
hard ultraviolet solar radiation.

Ozone would be destroyed by the heating of the upper atmosphere as the darker
soot-laden layer of air absorbed more solar energy. The effect would last for more
than five years, with 20 percent of the ozone lost across the planet and, in some
places, as much as 70 percent, leading to significant destruction of plant, marine
and animal life on Earth, and resulting in skin cancers, DNA mutation and eye
damage in humans and animals alike.

This, coupled with the violent competition for shrinking resources, likely civil
unrest due to mass starvation, rapidly shifting weather patterns and financial
collapse, would disrupt all human life with no part of the planet left unscathed.

While the physical effects of a nuclear winter would begin to dissipate after a
decade as the sky started to clear, the catastrophic consequences of even a localised
nuclear conflict would have far-reaching consequences.

The bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki are tiny when compared to the weapons in modern
nuclear arsenals [Al Jazeera]

This nightmarish scenario is based on just a relatively small nuclear conflict

between two minor nuclear powers who together possess 230 nuclear weapons.

By contrast, the US and Russia have a staggering 12,675 nuclear warheads between
them.

They are not the only ones; China, France, the United Kingdom, Israel and North
Korea also possess these deadly weapons, all able to inflict catastrophic damage on
the planet.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

ICEP Dawn Analysis