Dear Aspirants!

Follow up the Colour

Guidelines for Best Reading Experience

COLOUR Psychology

RED COLOR INDICATES……MOST IMPORTANT

( For Indicating Difficult Vocabulary, Phrases and Idioms )

GREEN COLOUR SHOWS……JUST IMPORTANT

(Names, Abbreviations, rhetorical expression and Grammar)

PURPLE COLOUR IS USED FOR……. TITLES

( Headings, sub heading )

ICEP Dawn Analysis

DAWN EDITORIALS PLUS OPINIONS
DECONSTRUCTION

Dated: Saturday 04 July, 2020

BY: ICEP Analysts Rabia Kalhoro & M.Usman.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Note:
We pick out Opinions from different Newspapers
related to:

#Competitive Exams
#Essay Writing
#Current Affairs
#Historical episodes
#Pakistan Affairs
# General Knowledge
# Global Issues
# Geopolitics
# International Relations
# Foreign Policy

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Before you read the NSS Investors Editorial: go through these
quick-notes

Quick Notes:
What is National Savings Scheme?

The Central Directorate of National Savings is the state-owned savings bank of

Pakistan. It operates as an autonomous governmental agency under the Ministry of
Finance and is managed by Central Directorate of National Savings.[1] Historically,
the operations of National Savings have been geared towards obtaining funds from
individual savers in Pakistan in order to provide non-bank financing to the
government's fiscal deficit. Towards this aim, the organization offers savings
products with competitive interest rates, along with a 100% guarantee from the
government treasury on all deposits.

Products offered by National Savings Bank:

The organization offers several savings and investment products; including prize
bonds, saving certificates, and saving accounts. Most products are available to
resident and non-resident Pakistanis, however, some products have restricted access
and require specified criteria to be met before they are offered.[9] These restricted
access products are italicized in the following products list:

▪ Prize Bonds
▪ Premium Prize Bonds
▪ Regular Income Certificates
▪ Behbood Savings Certificates
▪ Defence Savings Certificates
▪ Special Savings Certificates
▪ Short Term Savings Certificates
▪ Pensioners Benefit Account
▪ Shuhadas Family Welfare Account
▪ Special Savings Account
▪ Savings Account

Organizational Structure of the Bank:

National Savings organizational structure is based on directorates and branches.

The Central Directorate, or headquarters, is located in G-6 Markaz, Islamabad.
The organization's regional directorates are located in Lahore, Gujranwala,
Faisalabad, Karachi, Quetta, Hyderabad, Multan, Sukkur, Bahawalpur, Islamabad,
Abbotabad, and Peshawar.

Under these regional directorates, there are 376 branches of National Savings Centers
across the country.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

NSS investors| Dawn Editorial
A RECENT decision by the government to disallow (prohibit, ban) all institutional
investors from placing funds in the products offered by the National Savings
Scheme has narrowed the scope for participation of the very people the schemes are
supposed to exist for.

▪ It makes sense to stop participation in NSS schemes of those institutional

investors who operate for profit, as has been done since 2003.
▪ But pension and provident funds (retirement savings) are non-profit entities
and operate for the benefit of retirees and salaried people, and these funds
should continue to have access to NSS products, because the benefits they
derive from this participation go directly to the owners of the funds, and not the
institution.
▪ By closing the door on NSS products for pension and provident funds, the
government has succumbed (surrender) to the pressure of owners of mutual
funds in particular, who have long lobbied (to pressurise) too either be
allowed to invest in NSS products, or to turn away pension and provident
funds.

Detailed Analysis:

The arguments made over the years by the mutual funds are specious at best.

▪ For example, they argue that the participation of pension and provident funds
in NSS products has a disruptive effect on the financial markets of the country.
In order to for this argument to hold any merit, it will first need to be
established that the returns enjoyed by investors in NSS products diverge
significantly from the returns offered on government securities, whether
treasury bills or Pakistan Investment Bonds.
▪ If there is significant variation in the yield (supply) curves of these instruments
then an argument for ‘disruptive impact’ can potentially be made. At the
moment, however, returns on NSS instruments closely track the returns on
government securities. Mutual funds have also complained about the
redemption (pay off) feature in NSS instruments, describing it as a ‘free
lunch’, but this feature is necessary in a country where funded pension schemes
are rare and people have few options to build up long-term savings.

Conclusion:

The sad fact here is that those who have lobbied to close the door on NSS products
for pension and provident fund managers are actually the ones in search of a ‘free
lunch’. Instead of improving the quality of the product offerings or sharing the
returns they make by investing other people’s money, they are trying to grow the size
of their market by shutting down other people’s access. The reality is that retirement
funds are solidly risk averse (oppose), and if shut out of NSS, are more likely to
expand their participation in auctions (public sale) of government securities rather
than play into the hands of the sharks (exploiting person) that rule the private and
for-profit financial markets of this country. The government has allowed itself to be
played by vested interests in making this decision, to the detriment (damage) of
salaried and retired individuals. The decision should be reversed.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

On merit alone | Dawn Editorial

A CHALLENGE to the concept of merit has fortunately been beaten back (moved
back).

▪ The Federal Services Tribunal has dismissed an appeal against the combined
seniority list of male and female sub-inspectors of the Federal Investigation
Agency.
▪ The appellant (one who makes appeal), a sub-inspector at FIA-investigation,
had asked that the organisation issue segregated (separated based on race)
lists for sub-inspectors (investigation) and female SIs/ASIs (immigration) as
being separate wings.
▪ Included among the respondents were the interior secretary, the DG FIA
and 74 women FIA officials.

Critical Analysis of the Issue:

The government since 2003 has issued combined seniority lists for FIA sub-
inspectors belonging to the same group, on which their promotions are based.
However in 2008, segregated lists were issued, based on a sexist presumption that
women sub-inspectors were only fit to work in immigration — in other words, at a
desk job. According to this mindset, men alone have the skills and mental capacity to
undertake criminal investigations. The segregated lists deprived the female sub-
inspectors of their upcoming promotions, and allowed newly inducted male sub-
inspectors to be promoted earlier than their female counterparts.

▪ Naturally, this caused much heartburn and resentment among the women FIA
sub-inspectors. They challenged the segregated lists, and finally managed to
prevail. Indeed, they had a strong case, given it was based on their
constitutional right to be treated equally under the law, and not be
discriminated against on account of their gender. As in much of the world,
women in Pakistan too have had to fight for equal opportunities. Even while
things are changing, especially in the urban centres, the patriarchal mindset is
alive and well. It surfaces frequently to ‘claim’ a self-arrogated right to the
choicest pickings in terms of employment or to sideline women from
decision-making processes.

Conclusion: Tribute to Women Officers

In law enforcement, women have proved themselves to be more than capable of

shouldering the same responsibilities as their male counterparts even in extremely
perilous(risky) situations. When the Chinese consulate in Karachi was attacked in
November 2018, it was a female ASP, Suhai Aziz, who led the successful security
operation against the assailants. A few months ago, a woman police officer won
praise across the board for standing her ground (idiom: hold one position) against
a mob in a Karachi locality in order to enforce the ban on congregational prayers to
prevent the spread of Covid-19. As the struggle of the FIA’s female sub-inspectors
shows, more and more women are now determined to fight for their aspirations and
not let misogynistic elements cow them (to tame, to intimidate) into playing
secondary roles.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Polio in pandemic |Dawn Editorial
Introduction to the Issue:

THE national tally (recorded) of polio cases so far this year has already crossed 50.

▪ The latest victim of the crippling disease is from Sangtoi in South

Waziristan district. All four limbs of the three-year-old boy have been
paralysed. Such are the circumstances that he was not administered even a
single dose of the anti-polio vaccine.

Polio Cases in Pakistan: Critical Analysis

Cases like these from various parts of Pakistan are viewed with disbelief by a world
which is at a loss to understand the thinking that leads to opposition to immunisation
against polio. As yet, however, there are no workable solutions in sight. What has
happened in recent times, on the other hand, is that the Covid-19 pandemic has
provided the authorities here with another excuse to cover their inefficiency.

▪ Pakistan has told the Independent Monitoring Board for polio eradication
that the pandemic is the reason for the surge in polio cases here as it has
“hampered routine immunisation and campaigns”. The IMB was briefed on
various aspects of the anti-polio campaign in the country, a huge task that has
engaged the best minds for years.
▪ But Pakistan did feel the need to reassure the global monitors that nothing
about the national polio immunisation programme would be concealed from
them.
▪ Even before the pandemic struck, there were strong signs that 2020 was going
to be a bad polio year for Pakistan.
▪ The novel coronavirus poses a huge danger and is a test of our resources — in
terms of both finances and thinking out of the box.
▪ A viable (feasible) strategy is needed to address other health issues too during
the present crisis — such as building tighter networks with the help of our
doctors practising at the grassroots.

Recommendations:

The government has told the public that Covid-19 is a reality that we must all learn to
live with. We cannot forever go on blaming our failures and below-par(less than)
performances on a single emergency. There are other battles in the health sector and
these must not be neglected.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Jinnah’s Pakistan needed | Dawn Opinion
Tariq Khosa

From CSS Point Of view this Opinion will be helpful in

understanding Current affairs and Pak-affairs

The writer is former IG Police and author of The Faltering State and Inconvenient
Truths.

Jinnah’s vision of pluralistic state

THE pandemic is an opportunity to identify fault lines and alternatives in order to

forge a cohesive contract between state and citizens. Pakistan today needs effective
measures to make the nation more egalitarian, less authoritarian, more just, less
oppressive, more free and less fragile. Jinnah wanted a separate homeland for
Muslims because he feared they would become a political underclass in a unified
India dominated by Hindus. His vision was not to create a theocracy but a
pluralistic, democratic polity ( form of rule) based on social justice. For him,
religion had nothing to do with the business of the state. He addressed the
Constituent Assembly on Aug 11, 1947, thus: “We shall not be an Islamic state,
but a liberal, democratic Muslim state.”

Barely seven months after Independence, Bengali leader Suhrawardy warned that
the new state might destroy itself by adopting a version of Islam that is not based “on
toleration, equality, brotherhood” and by “establishing in effect a communal state
within…” In such a state, he said, “there will be no commerce, no business and no
trade. There will be lawlessness”. His words proved correct, leading to the
break-up of the country.

The Pakistan that we need must be more egalitarian and less authoritarian.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Challenges to Pakistan’s resolution : balancing religion and Quaid’s narrative

After Jinnah, the mullah, initially opposed to the creation of Pakistan, tried to
hijack the political narrative of our creation through the Objectives Resolution
of 1949. According to human rights activist I.A. Rehman, many people thought the
religious and political definition of the two-nation theory to be the same. In fact, the
political definition was used first and later clerics used its religious definition to
impose their version of faith.

Historian Dr Ishtiaq Ahmed rightly said that people, and not the state, had a religion
because if the state adopted one it became partisan. He lamented (regretted) that
religiosity often took precedence over democracy in Pakistan. After the country
became an Islamic republic in 1973 and the Objectives Resolution was included as a
substantive part of the Constitution, clerics started asserting themselves to make the
polity conform fully to their interpretations of religion. So, the first issue we must
grapple (grip and hold ) with is the role of the state as an enforcer or enabler of
faith.

Event which led to the switch of civilian government over military rule : Ayub
Khan in power

Jinnah was a firm believer in civilian supremacy over military matters. The first
senior army officer against whom he ordered a probe (investigation) as governor
general was none other than Brig Ayub Khan who was in charge of repatriation and
settlement of refugees from eastern Punjab. The mismanagement of refugee
settlement led to an inquiry against Ayub who was sent to East Pakistan. Before
leaving, he wrote to his friend Sher Ali, later major general, to put in a word with
army chief Gen Messervy. According to Maj Gen Sher Ali, the army chief, after
listening to him, said that Ayub was more of a politician than a soldier. Interestingly,
the inquiry officer was Musa Khan, later appointed army chief by Ayub Khan. After
the death in an air crash of a general tipped as the next chief, Ayub Khan became the
first native army chief.

Wrecked Pakistan under military regimes

Ayub, violating the Constitution of 1956, became a party to the imposition of the
first martial law in 1958, presiding over the destiny of a nation that the founding
father had conceived of as a democratic, pluralist polity(an advocate of a system in
ICEP Dawn Analysis
which two or more states, groups, principles, sources of authority, etc., coexist.) .
The next chief Gen Yahya presided over the breakup of Jinnah’s Pakistan. During
the 1980s, army chief Gen Zia injected fundamentalism (strict adherence to a
system of beliefs) into the army. Then it was Gen Musharraf’s turn to dupe the
nation on the slogan of ‘enlightened moderation’ while retaining the distinction
between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ Taliban. It is hoped that his conviction
(acknowledgement) will deter any future martial law. However, more important is a
change of mindset; every soldier must adhere to the oath administered on joining a
noble profession that entails (demand) the supreme sacrifice of life in defence of the
motherland.

But civilian supremacy over military matters will remain elusive unless the political
leadership provides good governance and upholds the rule of law.

Lacking in our political system

• Successive civilian governments have failed to uphold merit and transparency

in policymaking and appointments to crucial public offices, eg the appointment
of bureaucrats after retirement as members of the federal and provincial public
service commissions.
• Negating a merit-based,
• transparent process of selection,
• prime ministers and chief ministers promote patronage and nepotism by
arbitrarily picking up some of the retired officers, mostly from one service
group, when each service group in FPSC should have one member.
• Selection should be merit-based and open to all segments.

In addition, willful ignorance prevails in the policymaking corridors. Advisers and

special assistants to the prime minister should include a small group of technical
experts; instead, we see a platoon of special assistants enjoying perks and facilities of
state ministers. This is a waste of taxpayers’ money. These ‘technocrats’(one who
supports a government based on technological knowledge) are mostly affluent;
their expertise should be available free of cost.

Eliminating patronage and corruption remained an uphill task

Jinnah in his Aug 11 address warned against the curse of corruption and nepotism.
He stressed the role of the state in maintaining law and order. Recently, our aviation
minister reported that a third of the national carrier’s pilots had fake
qualifications and some had cleared their exams through proxies. This scam is
just the tip of iceberg in an ocean of corrupt practices in every sphere. Accoun-
tability, with no exceptions, is what we need.

Police in Pakistan must be depoliticized at grassroots level to avoid strain on

national security

Rule of law and maintenance of order require fearless judges with integrity. Our
criminal justice system is broken. There is no political will to reform the police. The
latest Police Reforms Committee report prepared in January 2019 is gathering dust.
Police in Pakistan must be depoliticised through democratic institutional
oversight. For both internal and external accountability of police, independent police
complaints authorities should be established in Islamabad and the provincial capitals.
Operational and administrative autonomy of police command must be ensured.
Functional specialisation in investigation and CT branches will enhance
professionalism. The role of police as service provider and an institution that
ICEP Dawn Analysis
protects citizens must be consciously pursued to change the present
militarisation of internal security.

Way forward

It is hoped the virus will not prove fatal to our parliamentary democracy as during the
pandemic, the politics of crisis can lead to far greater authoritarian tendencies by a
state facing the test of public dissatisfaction. Pakistan needs to be a progressive,
peaceful and prosperous nation.

The writer is former IG Police and author of The Faltering State and Inconvenient
Truths.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Modi’s trap
Muhammad J. Siddiqui

From CSS Point Of view this Opinion will be helpful in

understanding Current affairs and I.R

Topic: What was Modi thinking when he decided to take

on China?

What lies ahead in future amid the escalating hostility : China VS India

THE recent skirmish between India and China has been reported with different
underlying assumptions and implications in the press across the globe. While
mainstream opinion makers are keeping a cautious eye on the conflict, a limited
number of hawks in the local media have exaggerated this conflict to epic
proportions, terming it as perhaps the emergence of Chinese dominance and
supremacy over the region. To be specific, it is being portrayed as a swift, glaring
victory of China over a largely subdued Indian army.

While a lot of intellects are euphoric over this recent Chinese victory over India, the
truth of the matter is that, as a result of this conflict, Prime Minister Modi has laid a
trap for the emergence of India as a new global power.

Bilateral investment and mutual interest of India and China strengthened their
backbone of the economy

Comprising almost one-third of the world’s population, both China and India are
competing for global respect. Over the last few decades, with an immense amount of
ICEP Dawn Analysis
investment in education of their masses, developing emerging markets, and global
branding of their nations, both have finally developed a stable middle class — the
backbone of the global financial system that primarily acts as a catalyst for the global
economy.

Converging areas of Indo-Chinese ties

• While this competition is intense in its search for new markets and raw
materials, a few areas such as global warming and the World Trade
Organisation show an unprecedented cooperation and union between the two
countries, to the point where the West (the US in particular) seems to be the
common enemy.
• Staunch (strong) , organised objections and reservations to WTO and
Kyoto/Paris accords are a few trademarks of the Sino-Indian friendship.
• Trade between the two is estimated to be at a historic high of $84 billion.
• Both countries, more so than the West, have a monopoly over commodity
markets (ranging from oil and gas to lentils and canola oil) across the globe.
• As a matter of fact, to avoid bidding in search of new assets, the National Oil
Company of India has forged an informal consultation alliance with the
Chinese Petroleum Company.
• With similar rich histories, traditions, and multiculturalism of over 3,000 years,
both countries thus face similar challenges as well.
• Both countries have difficulty in the UN when it comes to their unimpressive
record on human rights.

The above points noting the similarities between the two nations lead to an important
question: What was going through Modi’s mind when he decided to take on China?
The Indian prime minister has based his limited but high-profile conflict strategy on
the assumption that under current circumstances,

China will not escalate any conflict in the region due to the following:

(a) It would raise uncertainty in the already in turmoil capital markets of mainland
China, which may impact the much needed liquidity that the regime requires to come
out of this economic crisis.

(b) The Chinese regime currently faces perhaps its biggest challenges in the last 50
years, which include

▪ accusations put forward by several countries, including the US, Australia and
France of a Covid-19 cover-up,
▪ the future of Hong Kong protests and its amalgamation in mainland China, and
▪ the future of Chinese firms after the international blockade of Huawei. The
downfall of Huawei, while orchestrated by the US, is an absolute delight for
the European, South Korean and Japanese tech sectors, as it brings a long-
sought fair and competitive balance to the global tech market.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

India is ready to hit the bull’s eye :Regional powers face off

With these limitations to a Chinese response, Modi has finally set the stage to
preserve his legacy as the man who will bring about India’s emergence as an
international giant. The climax of this conflict would result in a sombre (dark) and
permanent solution, which would demonstrate to the world that India could not only
stand against a global giant but also resolve complex democratic conflicts in a
reasonable manner.

The current Indian regime has various audiences to this conflict

▪ Firstly, there’s Vietnam and Cambodia, which are some of the fastest-growing
economies in the world and in need of a reliable defence partner against China,
making India a likely future ally.
▪ The recent rift between the US and South Korea over the purchase of an $8bn
defence system, coupled with the constant manoeuvring of US/North Korea
relationship, South Korea, along with Japan, is looking for a fellow Asian
power to confront China.
▪ The grand prize that Modi wants to deliver to his nation is a permanent
member, non-veto seat in the UN Security Council, something which his arch
rival Pandit Nehru could only dream of, which would be a delight for its
newfound allies, including Israel.

The trap has been set by the Indian prime minister, and it is now time to observe the
Chinese response, which is generally long term and routed through its allies.

The writer is an international banker based in Toronto.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

 Crisis Facing the Global Order |Opinion
From CSS Point of view this article helps in the following areas:

International Relations. + Paris Agreement + Global Challenges

Introduction to the Topic:

The corona crisis has laid bare the fissures in the global order. This article
examines the four issues that are principal global challenges. Pandemic has
accentuated these challenges.

Principal global challenges

1) Geopolitical tensions

2) Climate crisis.

3) Global mistrust.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

4) The dark side of the digital world are four issues which U.N.Secretary-
General Guterres listed as primary threats.The four challenges have, for now,
been overshadowed by the corona pandemic crisis.

Climate change challenge

▪ The drop in emissions in 2020 is projected to be about 8 per cent

down on last year.
▪ This drop will just put us on track to where we should be if we are
to reach the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 C.
▪ The threat of climate change, although raising its head again, has been
constrained.
Digital space and its dark side

▪ Cyberspace has been a digital saviour during the corona crisis.

▪ Virtual communications enhanced through various services, new apps,
expanded coverage has been key to enhanced virtual lives for millions
by increase of the avenues for working from home, video chat
connectivity and online delivery of goods.
▪ Companies that have deftly used cyberspace have prospered the most:
Amazons net capital gain has been over $400 billion in 2020.
▪ However, a surge in cybercrime and cyber fraud is anticipated, if not
there already.
▪ The logic being that cyberspace use has expanded without
commensurate growth in security features.
These are dire projections of an impending "cyber Pearl Harbour".

Geopolitical tensions

▪ Accentuation of geopolitical tensions during the corona crisis is well-

documented.
▪ The US-Chinarelationship was already deteriorating, the blame game
over the virus has exacerbated it.
▪ The brazen behaviour of China in matters relating to Taiwan, Hong
Kong, Australia, South China Sea and the India-China border has added
to the inflammable state of geopolitics.
▪ Rarely has the world seen such paucity of international cooperation
since World War II.
▪ The unravelling of the international institutions and partnerships that
have been built since World War II is stark.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Trust deficit among states

▪ Trust amongst states has plummeted to its worst since World War II.
▪ When faced with corona crisis shortages, almost all EU states
responded at the national level.
▪ Globally, at one time, more than 70 per cent of the world's ports of
entry air, sea and land restricted travel.
▪ According to a Global Trade Alert study, nearly 90 governments
blocked the export of medical supplies while 29 restricted food exports.
▪
Efficiency to self-sufficiency

▪ Lack of trust is also impacting diversified supply chains.

▪ The corona crisis is driving a shift from efficiency to self-sufficiency.
▪ Japan is paying companies to relocate factories from China.
▪ President Emmanuel Macron has pledged "full independence" for
France in crucial medical supplies by year-end.
▪ Prime Minister Modi has called for self-reliance and being vocal for
local in India.
▪ In the US, support for "Buy American" benchmarks for government
health spending has growing bipartisan support.
▪
Pakistan's role

▪ Challenges that transcend borders are of cardinal importance to

Pakistan's well being.
▪ It is, therefore, time to conceptualise, in concrete terms, pathways to
address them.
▪ This will need to include our envisaging the new order and Pakistan's
own role in it as well as who our partners in this venture are to be.
▪ Others are already working on their game plans.
Consider the question "The cracks in the global order were apparent but the
pandemic has accentuated the challenges to the global order. In light of this,
examine the challenges to global order is facing the role that Pakistan should
play."

Conclusion

If Pakistan wants to be "rule shapers" rather than being "rule takers", then we
need to start working in partnership at blueprints for change. It is never too
early to plan for the future.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Ladakh face-off | India, China agree to hold
more talks | Opinion

Why in News
Recently, the third round of Corps Commander-level talks was held
between India and China. This Opinion is published in the Hindu
Newspaper.

From CSS point of view it will be helpful in Current Affairs etc

Recently in the Border Clash,both

the sides emphasised on expeditious,
phased and step-wise de-escalation
in areas close to the Line of Actual
Control (LAC) in Ladakh as
priority.
Key Points
▪ Background:

o In the previous two rounds, India

sought restoration of the status
quo as it existed before
the standoff began in May 2020.
• Indian and Chinese troops scuffled at Pangong Tso in Ladakh on
5/6th May.
o After the first round of talks on 6th June, 2020, clashes occurred in Galwan
Valley (Ladakh) that claimed 20 Indian soldiers’ lives and an unknown
number of casualties on the Chinese side.
o While faceoffs and standoffs keep occurring on the LAC due to differences in
perception on the alignment, there has been no instance of firing on the LAC
since 1975.
• India and China fought a war in 1962.

▪ India’s Response:

o Military:

• India has moved in additional divisions, tanks and artillery across the LAC
to match Chinese deployments.
• Further, India has approved the purchase of 33 Russian fighter jets and
upgrades to 59 war planes at a cost of Rs. 18,148 crore.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

 o Economic:

• Citing the “emergent nature of threats” from mobile applications,

including popular ones of Chinese origin such as TikTok, ShareIt,
UCBrowser, and Weibo, the government has banned 59 apps.
• Further, India’s trade deficit with China fell to $48.66 billion in 2019-
20 on account of the decline in imports. The trade deficit stood at $53.56
billion in 2018-19 and $63 billion in 2017-18.

• However, the tensions on the border, as well as the Covid-19

pandemic, have thrown light on India’s economic dependencies on
China.
• India remains reliant on Chinese products in several critical and
strategically sensitive sectors, from semiconductors and active
pharmaceutical ingredients to the telecom sector, where Chinese
vendors are involved not only in India’s 4G network but in on-
going 5G trials as well.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China in India has dipped to
$163.78 million in 2019-20 from $229 million in 2018-19.

• In April 2020, the Indian government tightened FDI norms coming

from the countries which share land borders with
India. Government approval has been made mandatory.
▪ China’s Reaction:
o It has described the app ban action as “a deliberate interference in practical
cooperation” between the two countries. China’s State media has warned of
economic repercussions, such as affecting outbound Chinese investment into
India.
Possible Reasons Behind Increased China’s Deployment at the LAC
▪ India’s decision to strengthen its border infrastructure (Darbuk-Shyok-Daulat Beg
Oldie road).
▪ India’s United States tilt (e.g. Quad) amid US-China tensions.
▪ China views India’s assertions regarding Gilgit-Baltistan, as an implicit attack on
the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China’s flagship programme.
▪ China’s growing assertiveness over the South China Sea.
▪ Political and economic tensions within China due to Covid-19 pandemic.
▪ India being a growing power in Asian region.

Territorial Explanation:
Line of Actual Control

▪ Demarcation Line: The Line of Actual Control (LAC) is the demarcation that
separates Indian-controlled territory from Chinese-controlled territory.
▪ LAC is different from the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan:

ICEP Dawn Analysis

 o The LoC emerged from the 1948 ceasefire line negotiated by the United
Nations (UN) after the Kashmir War.
o It was designated as the LoC in 1972, following the Shimla
Agreement between the two countries. It is delineated on a map signed by the
Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) of both armies and has the
international sanctity of a legal agreement.
o The LAC, in contrast, is only a concept – it is not agreed upon by the two
countries, neither delineated on a map or demarcated on the ground.
▪ Length of the LAC: India considers the LAC to be 3,488 km long, while the
Chinese consider it to be only around 2,000 km.

▪ Sectors Across the LAC:

o It is divided into three sectors: the eastern sector which spans Arunachal
Pradesh and Sikkim (1346 km), the middle sector in Uttarakhand and
Himachal Pradesh (545 km), and the western sector in Ladakh (1597 km).

• The alignment of the LAC in the eastern sector is along the

1914 McMahon Line.
• The McMohan line marked out previously unclaimed/undefined borders
between Britain and Tibet.
o The middle sector is the least disputed sector, while the western sector
witnesses the highest transgressions between the two sides.
▪ Disagreements:

o India's claim line is different from that of the LAC. It is the line seen in the
official boundary marked on the maps as released by the Survey of India,
including Aksai Chin (occupied by China).
o In China’s case, LAC corresponds mostly to its claim line, but in the eastern
sector, it claims the entire Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

 o The claim lines come into question when a discussion on the final
international boundaries takes place, and not when the conversation is about
a working border i.e. LAC.
▪ Border Negotiations:

o Indian Prime Minister’s visit to China in 2003 led to the agreement on

appointing Special Representatives (SRs) and, in April 2005, there was
agreement on the political parameters and principles that would underpin
negotiations.The aim was a comprehensive solution encompassing all three
sectors. The agreed boundary would follow well-defined geographical features
and respect the interests of the settled populations.
o During Indian Prime Minister’s visit to China in May 2015, the proposal to
clarify the LAC was rejected by the Chinese.
o However, in the Wuhan (2018) and Mahabalipuram (2019) summits, both
China and India had reaffirmed that they will make efforts to “ensure peace
and tranquility in the border areas”.
Relevance of Pangong Tso Lake
▪ Location: It is a long narrow, deep, endorheic (landlocked) lake situated at a
height of more than 13,000 ft in the Ladakh Himalayas.
▪ Significance: It lies in the path of the Chushul approach, one of the main
approaches that China can use for an offensive into Indian-held territory.
▪ Governance: It is overlooked by the Finger Area - a set of eight cliffs extending
out of the Sirijap range (on the northern bank of Lake).

o India claims that the LAC is coterminous with Finger 8 but it physically
controls area only upto Finger 4.
o Chinese border posts are at Finger 8, while it believes that the LAC passes
through Finger 2.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Way Forward
▪ Detailed protocols are in place for troops to handle face-off incidents. The countries
need to stick to the 2005 protocol and the 2013 Border Defence Cooperation
Agreement.
▪ On 1st April, 2020, India and China completed their 70 years of diplomatic
relations. Both sides should acknowledge that the situation is precarious, and that
the recent days in particular have undone decades of painstakingly negotiated
confidence-building mechanisms.
▪ For India, the first priority has to be to restore the status quo ante at the border as
it existed in April. This will require both a display of military strength at the
border by standing up to Chinese aggression, and diplomatic work by making it
clear to China that its intervention will lead to heavy costs across all spheres of the
relationship.
▪ India cannot afford to sever all its economic links with the world’s second-largest
economy, even in the digital space. Chinese finance will help in sustaining India’s
start-up economy. However, through Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan, India can try
to replace chinese products with domestic products in the sectors where it is
possible. Further, it needs to boost up its economic relations with other countries.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Yes sir!’ society
Irfan Husain Updated July 04, 2020

THERE are two lessons from the tragic PIA crash in Karachi, and if we don’t learn
from them, the almost 100 victims would have died in vain.

Firstly — and more easily fixable — is the business about pilots flying on fake
licences. There is nothing to suggest that the captain of the ill-fated PIA flight was
one of them, but his mishandling of the aircraft is an indicator of the culture of
incompetence that rules our skies.

When an Airblue plane crashed a few miles from Islamabad a decade ago, killing all
on board, the inquiry report shone a laser on the relationship between the captain and
his first officer. Although the latter informed the captain that their approach was too
low, and they should pull up, he was ignored because to have agreed would have
indicated that his junior knew more than the captain did.

Then there was the near-tragedy at Islamabad airport some 30 years ago when the
PIA Jumbo scraped home on its belly. Initially, the pilot was praised for executing a
masterful belly landing, saving many lives. It then emerged that he had switched off
the sensor that warns pilots they were too close to land without lowering the
undercarriage.

Our brainwashing begins earlier than the classroom.

I’m sure there are many other examples of why PIA is considered such a dangerous
airline to fly on. The powerful pilots union (Palpa) prevents any meaningful
punishment for blatantly dangerous manoeuvres.

But fake licences should not surprise us: remember the recent Axact scandal where
millions of dollars were coined by the Karachi-based firm selling fake degrees around
the world? After a flurry of arrests and court cases, the whole affair seems to have
been forgotten.

Perhaps even a dysfunctional country like Pakistan can fix the problem of fake
licences. But if this happens, it’ll be due more to foreign pressure and our image
abroad than any concern for the lives of Pakistani passengers.

However, it is the second problem that is far more pervasive and deeply entrenched.
As the Airblue report highlighted, the rigid hierarchy, even on a three-man flight
deck, was such that the first officer could not do more to convince his captain of his

ICEP Dawn Analysis

dangerous approach than utter emollient words like ‘Sir, are too low’. The captain
was apparently too full of his authority to agree, and insisted on maintaining his
course: any change would have implied that his junior officer knew more than he did.

Now multiply this attitude across our entire society. When the boss is convinced he
(seldom she) knows best, you will never get the optimum outcome. Take Kargil as an
example of poor planning resulting from this rigid hierarchical approach.

When Musharraf cursorily ran the broad outline of his madcap adventure past Nawaz
Sharif, there were few of the obvious questions that should have been asked. The
kitchen cabinet reportedly saw the prime minister’s mild approval, and kept quiet.
Musharraf’s team, for their part, only spoke out against the enterprise after they had
retired. They, too, were prisoners of the ‘Yes, sir! No, sir!’ syndrome. To this day, the
report of the debacle has not been released, even as an internal case study, as far as I
know.

But it’s not just the military that operates on this principle. When I was president of a
private university, I used to call weekly meetings of the teaching staff. At these
sessions, I put forth my ideas for changes, and asked my colleagues to give counter-
arguments. Although these were educated, intelligent people, they almost always
stayed quiet, or agreed with me.

And when I monitored classes from the back of the room, I noticed that students
hardly ever asked questions. Although I hated interfering, I would almost urge them
to query or criticise. Again, silence. So clearly, the senior/junior hierarchy was at
work. This is why we produce so few inquiring, curious minds.

Sucking up to the boss for promotions is a global malady, but mostly, it ends at the
end of work. Here, we live with it each moment of our lives.

Our brainwashing begins earlier than the classroom. Boys are deemed too
inexperienced to choose their careers, so their fathers decide. Girls aren’t practical
enough to choose their husbands, so their parents use force, if necessary, to select a
‘suitable’ spouse. I know things are changing for the younger generation in a certain
class. But for the majority, these major decisions are still made by parents.

Much of Asia is prisoner to this paternalistic approach, and is the poorer for it.
Individuality is crushed, and bad decision-making is just one result. When people end
up in the wrong career, or a disastrous, abusive marriage, relations between parents
and their children can be ruined for life.

I am informed by a friend that Japan Airlines trains its pilots to overcome their
childhood conditioning, and stand their ground. But how do we transfer this to our
entire society?

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Weight of a dream
Fahd Husain July 04, 2020

The writer is Dawn’s resident editor in Islamabad.

IT is hard to outrun legitimacy.

Judge Arshad Malik is unemployed as of Friday. That is his problem. But he could
become someone else’s problem. And this is a huge problem not because of the
problematic nature of the problem per se, but of the stakes — and players — involved
in the problem.

In short: Judge Arshad Malik gave a judgement in the accountability court in

December 2018 convicting former prime minister Nawaz Sharif in the Azizia steel
mill reference. In July 2019, Maryam Nawaz Sharif held a press conference and
played a secretly recorded video in which Judge Arshad Malik is heard confessing
that he was pressured to convict Nawaz Sharif. Soon thereafter, another video
featuring the same judge surfaced which compromised him further. It then transpired
that the judge had actually gone to Raiwind and met Nawaz Sharif after convicting
him. All these disclosures triggered a series of inquiries and petitions and
departmental actions that unfolded over subsequent months. Finally on Friday July 3,
an administrative committee of the Lahore High Court headed by the chief justice
dismissed Judge Arshad Malik from service.

Is this then the end of the Judge Arshad story? Dream on.

Judge Arshad’s judgement legitimised a certain narrative. His dismissal has

inconvenienced it. This narrative — that brought PTI to power — had already begun
to sag under the weight of its underwhelming performance; now Judge Arshad’s
dismissal could drag it down to a perilously low level. How low does low need to be
before it becomes low enough to scare the government?

Context may help. Judge Arshad’s fate has legal and political consequences for Imran
Khan and Nawaz Sharif. Legally speaking, experts now have to determine if Judge
Arshad’s dismissal has any bearing on his judgement against Nawaz Sharif. We
could be looking at a gruelling court battle in the weeks and months ahead. Politically
speaking, the war begins now.

This is the war PTI should be ready to fight with all its might because at stake is the
one thing that no government can afford to lose: legitimacy.

ICEP Dawn Analysis

Legitimacy issues have dogged PTI since it clawed its way into power in 2018. These
issues pertained primarily to the allegation that the party won the elections with more
than considerable help from those who can provide more than considerable help.
Such help, it was said, started much before the elections and gifted PTI willing and
winning candidates among other goodies. Anecdotal evidence of this political
nourishment may not hold up in a court of law but it has enough substance to dilute
the fragrance of victory that PTI desperately wanted to savour.

The election of 2018 was Round 2 of this bout. Round 1 was the downing of Nawaz.
Together, both rounds stitched a narrative that catapulted Imran to power. While it
was easier to talk about the help that Imran received in Round 2, it was much harder
to speak of any such stuff in Round 1. When it comes to courts and the dispensation
of justice, even anecdotal evidence piles up with great caution and trepidation. For
Imran’s opponents therefore it was easier to delegitimise Round 2 than Round 1.

Judge Arshad’s judgement played a critical role in Nawaz’s downfall and by

extension Imran’s victory in Round 1. His dismissal from service on Friday is the
first real challenge to the political verdict of Round 1.Then of course, there’s Round
3.

This round — covering PTI’s stint in power — has been an unending series of
governance migraines for all concerned. The promise of PTI’s reformist governance
was supposed to have compensated for the problems of legitimacy in Round 2. The
opposite happened. In the absence of institutional reform and in the presence of
unending scandals — sugar, wheat, petrol, aviation, just to name a few — PTI has
succeeded in fuelling legitimacy concerns even in Round 3.

This is where we stand today in terms of a new low for PTI: legitimacy issues now
plague Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3. Together, they may start generating some
very serious questions that PTI would rather not address.

But it may be starved for choice. Round 2 cannot change; Round 1 can only get
worse and Round 3 is already afflicted with the inadequacy of performance. Early
warning signs have started becoming visible and data — both anecdotal and
otherwise — is piling up. The admission of a retired Supreme Court judge that
history will not be kind to the Panama case verdict may not have much to do with a
latest survey showing PML-N president Shahbaz Sharif rated higher as a leader
Pakistanis want today than Prime Minister Imran Khan — and this may not be linked
with the literal and metaphorical grounding of PIA; which in turn may not be
connected with the dismissal of the judge who convicted Nawaz Sharif; and yet,
somehow, these random sequencings seem to draw a discernible pattern across the
darkly clear political sky.

It is a pattern the PTI government better read correctly because it is harkening the
ghosts of deeds interred in the past. Something stirs yonder. Wrongs may yet be
righted amid cosmic corrections whose faint rumble is audible over the din of
shallow politics.

PTI’s success lay less in its politics and more in its ability to make people dream of a
better Pakistan. It was a dream easy to dream when escaping from the drudgery of
seven decades of mal-governance by a soiled leadership. But for dreams to come
true, they have to be weighted down with the armour of legitimacy and potency of
action.

Or else, you wake up — and poof, just like that — the dream is gone.
ICEP Dawn Analysis
ICEP Dawn Analysis