Student Name Dr. Gilford B.

Estores
Student No. Date

A Research Critique

on

‘Probabilistic analysis of a pull-out test’

J. Humbert, J. Baroth, L. Daudeville

(2010)

Introduction and Review of Related Literature

In this study, the problem which is the uncertainties of the materials and failure modes of the
analysis of pull-out strength of reinforcement embedded in concrete was clearly defined and discussed.
There were two modes of failure of the pull-out test considered and illustrated. These are the bond failure
at the steel/concrete interface and steel bar failures. Moreover, this paper was considered by the authors
as complementary research on both nonlinear modellings of pull-out tests with a basis of probabilistic
tools such as Monte Carlo Simulations and the Lagrange method. This paper is very interesting because
these probabilistic methods were used and applied for the first time in the evaluation of the first-order
moments and probability density functions (PDF) of failure strength of a composite connection at failure.
Concerning the background of these methods, there was only a brief discussion about their applications
and advantages. However, there was a good explanation, although it is brief, on when and where such a
model is appropriate and applicable. Unfortunately, there was only one related study mentioned the pull-
out test using a nonlinear damage model and a probabilistic approach. Not much literature has been
mentioned about the application of Monte Carlo Simulations and Lagrange method related to the pull-
out test. I also noticed that there were some inconsistencies in the labelling of the figures.

Problem Description

This study aims to take into account the uncertainties on materials and failure modes in the
analysis of a pull-out test using Monte Carlo Simulations and Lagrange method. I think the utilization of
these methods, although they are new in this case, is relevant because according to the authors, the
failure strength of reinforcement embedded in concrete depends mainly on the variability of material and
geometrical characteristics of the assembly and the uncertainties on modes failure should be considered
and quantified. They pointed out also that the existing design codes consider only the semi-probabilistic
approach that uses a 5% fractile of the uncertain parameters as input data for failure strength calculations.
Modeling, Results, Analysis, and Conclusion

There were only a few pull-out data available experimentally. The means and coefficient of
variance were tabulated for the random variable modeling the failure strength for anchoring lengths of
each mode. There was sensitivity analysis done first along with the finite element (FE) model of the
described pull-out test to examine the failure strength of two failure modes for comparison. There were
good illustration and description of the boundary conditions of the FE model mesh of the steel-concrete
half-connection. Then, Monte Carlo Simulations and Lagrange method were applied to the FE model while
considering material behavior remains elastic. The uncertain parameters for input and output random
variables were clearly defined. There was also a good illustration through graphs on how the authors came
up with such uncertainties. Using the Monte Carlo Simulations, there was also a good comparison of how
they arrived at a 10,000 number of samples they utilized corresponding to a mechanical FE computation.
The result of the Monte Carlo simulations was assumed sufficiently accurate. Moreover, this result was
compared with the result of the Lagrange method. The process of obtaining the best result was specified
and discussed. Specifically, this method used various integration points for both modes of failure to
determine the best result. Then, the results were presented well through an illustration of the estimated
PDF obtained both by direct Monte Carlo Simulations and the Lagrange method which was compared to
the target PDF. The comparison turned out to have a good level of agreement. Then, the reasons for the
authors to adopt the Stochastic FEM based on the Lagrange polynomials for failure strength analysis was
clearly explained.

The data and results presented were not complete. Like in Table 1, the standard deviation or
C.O.V. of the mechanical parameters is supposed to be included. Moreover, it is better if the estimated
PDF for mode 2 failure is presented for comparison. I also noticed that there were some inconsistencies
again in the labeling of the figures. The computer software used for all the models used was not specified.
However, the appendices on the formulation of the Monte Carlo Simulations and the Lagrange method
were clearly defined and specified. Lastly, the conclusions were cited clearly and the solution to the
problem was addressed well.

Comment and Suggestion

The probabilistic models used in this study are somehow unique because it is a combination of
Finite Element method, Monte Carlo Simulations, and Lagrange method which was used for the first time
to model a composite connection at failure. However, these methods can be extended and be applied to
model the probabilistic analysis of the uncertainties that may influence the performance of anchor bolts.