Chapter 

RESULTS

Climate change

After I produced the maps with current temperature and precipitation distribution. I calculated the
temperature and precipitation range for each species. Then I did an overlay of the municipalities and calculated the
average temperature and precipitation for each one. Later I produced some charts for each species including the list of
municipalities, their average temperature and precipitation. I added/subtracted to this chart the temperature and
precipitation calculated by Urritia and Vuille (2009). Finally I extracted the list of municipalities that would suffer an
increase/decrease of temperature and precipitation compared to the values that were found for each species range.
Some of the municipalities will have an increase or decrease only in the temperature or the precipitation, not necessarily
both of them. The following charts show the results of this comparison.

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Peanut species and climate change

There is a decrease in Lowlands of –0.6 °C which affects mainly Arachis ringonii. The precipitation in this region
according to the model made by Urritia and Vuille (2009) is supposed to increase around 220 mm. by 2070. This increase
is a general risk to the entire peanut species selected in this study (Table 6, 7 and 8).

Table 6.

Municipalities with a change of average precipitation. Arachis batizocoi

Municipality Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.

Charagua 605.27 877.73

Lagunillas 674.67 885.97

Camiri 676.61 896.61

Boyuibe 695.42 922.75

Cuevo 679.72 903.19

Machareti 774.45 966.69

Huacaya 771.87 969.17

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Table 7.

Municipalities with a change of average temperature and average precipitation. Arachis duranensis.

Municipality Average Temperature Average Projected Temp. Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.
Boyuibe 695.42 922.75

Machareti 774.45 966.69

Entre Rios 22.42 21.48 732.86 899.53

Villa Montes 810.94 1030.38

Carapari 830.58 1008.99

Yacuiba 833.34 1048.91

Table 8.

Municipalities with a change of average temperature and average precipitation. Arachis ringonii.

Municipality Average Temperature Average Projected Temp. Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.
Santa Cruz 25.05 24.40 695.42 922.75

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Potato species and climate change

Potato species and its distribution on the eastern slope of the Andean mountain chain will have a temperature
decrease of 0.8 °C. Solanum gandarillasii area of distribution over the selected municipalities is the one that presents
more threat for temperature change. Precipitation on this part of the Inter-Andean valleys will decrease in 380 mm. This
represents a general threat to the areas where the selected species for potato grow (Table 9, 10 and 11).

Table 9.

Municipalities with a change of average precipitation. Solanum boliviense subsp. astleyi

Municipality Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.

295.45 -121.73
Betanzos
177.70 -146.16
Puna

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Table 10.

Municipalities with a change of average temperature and average precipitation. Solanum gandarillasii.

Municipality Average Temperature Average Projected Temp. Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.
Totora 14.43 13.31 336.61 -67.90

Comarapa 126.77 -183.42

15.44 14.59
Poroma
18.39 17.81
Sucre
15.52 14.49
Tarabuco
15.67 14.96
Toro Toro
Pocona 388.11 1.4

Vacas 396.39 16.79

Alalay 399.66 20.86

Pampa Grande 47.92 -300.67

Saipina 82.83 -289.03

Aiquile 440 5.20

Moromoro 24.75 -353.89

Trigal 23.39 -356.48

Quirusillas 24.36 -354.24

Vallegrande 61.41 -232.35

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Municipality Average Temperature Average Projected Temp. Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.

Villa Mojocoya 266.94 -125.39

Villa Serrano 89.87 -263.75

Tomina 306.56 -104.48

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Table 11.

Municipalities with a change of average temperature and average precipitation. Solanum alandiae.

Municipality Average Temperature Average Projected Temp. Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.
Pojo 284.50 -96.99

Totora 14.43 13.31 336.61 -67.90

Comarapa 126.77 -183.42

Pocona 388.11 1.39

Alalay 399.66 20.86

Pampa Grande 47.92 -300.67

Omereque 210.96 -175.16

Saipina 82.83 -289.03

Aiquile 440 5.20

Pasorapa 82.86 -223.30

Moromoro 24.75 -353.89

Trigal 23.39 -356.48

Quirusillas 24.36 -354.24

Vallegrande 61.41 -232.35

Pucara 28.01 -345.51

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Quinoa species and climate change

Following the model by Urritia and Vuille (2009), temperatures in the high Andean zones of Bolivia could increase
up to 1.5 °C. This increase mainly affects some municipalities for Chenopodium hircinum and Chenopodium hircinum
subsp. eu-hircinum (Table 12 and 14). Precipitation will decrease in 50 mm. This variable is more favorable for quinoa
species as less municipalities seem to be threaten by these decrease in precipitation.

Table 12.

Municipalities with a change of average temperature and average precipitation. Chenopodium hircinum.

Municipality Average Temperature Average Projected Temp. Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.
Oruro 11.68 13.30

Tocobamba 13.40 14.71

Santuario de Quillacas 12.65 14.10

Uyuni 13.47 15.54

Colcha “K” 14.70 16.51

Moromoro 24.75 -23.89

Trigal 23.39 -26.48

Table 13.

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Municipalities with a change of average temperature. Chenopodium hircinum subsp. catamarcensis
Municipality Average Temperature Average Projected Temp. Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.
Pojo 18.36 20.40

Comarapa 18.91 20.63

Mizque 442.22 402.06

Toro Toro 452.03 411.76

Poroma 528.71 458.73

Table 14.

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Municipalities with a change of average temperature. Chenopodium hircinum subsp. eu-hircinum
Municipality Average Temperature Average Projected Temp. Average Precipitation Average Projected Precip.
Pojo 18.36 20.40

Comarapa 18.91 20.63

Pampa Grande 18.80 20.47

Aiquile 18.11 19.47

Pasorapa 17.95 19.18

Moromoro 18.39 19.90 24.75 -23.89

Villa Serrano 18.39 20.11

Sopachuy 17.53 19.44

Tarvita 18.35 19.69

Pucara 18.35 19.69

Population

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 For these results I will only present three representative images that have a scatter plot where population density is
expressed in Km2 versus rate of growth between 1992 and 2001. The first one is for Arachis batizocoi (Fig. 2). For peanut
species, population density is in general low (less than 50 persons per Km2). Growth rate is low for A. batizocoi and A.
duranensis. In the case of A. ringonii (Apendix I) the result of this graph is negative as there is a high population density
with a growth rate over 5.

In the case of potato, figure 3 corresponds to Solanum gandarillasi, where population density goes over 1000
persons per Km2. Solanum aladiae has low population density but some municipalities have a growth rate over 3. The
situation with S. boliviense subsp. astleyi is different, where there is low population density and the growth rate is lower
than 2.

Figure 4 for Chenopodium hircinum subsp. catamarcensis has low population density but some municipalities
present high growth rates. C. hircinum subsp. catamarcensis and C. hircinum subsp. eu-hircinum have both high
population density and growth rate.

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Fig. 2 Population density with growth rate for Arachis batizocoi Fig. 3 Population density with growth rate for Solanum
gandarillasi

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Fig 4. Population density with growth rate for Chenopodium hircinum subsp. catamarcensis

Literacy Rate

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 This variable has results for all the municipalities. In the eastern region of Bolivia (Fig. 9) and the high Andean zone
(Fig. 11 and 12) levels of literacy are higher. It is in the Inter-Andean valleys, where the rate decreases below 60. No
municipality that was selected reported a rate below 20.

For this variable the maximum value was 96.08 and the lowest 40.62. This range was divided in 4 equal parts to
obtain 4 categories and use them to qualify each municipality. From 40.62 to 54.72 a down arrow () was assigned
representing a negative impact. The next category from 54.73 to 68.58 was assigned a left arrow (). A more promising
category from 68.59 to 82.16 has the right arrow (). The positive category from 82.17 to 96.08 was symbolized with an
upper arrow (). This symbology was used in the next section (Synthesis) to define which could be the municipalities to
put a special emphasis in order to engage the conservation of the selected species.

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Fig. 5 Literacy Rate for peanut species Fig. 6 Literacy Rate for potato species

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Fig. 7 Literacy Rate for C. hircinum Fig. 8 Literacy rate for C. hircinum subsp. catamarcensis

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Women in municipalities

All the municipalities have a level of women representation in the local government. The lowest percent of women
involved in local government is 20. This is equivalent to one woman out of 5 positions in the municipal government.

Eastern municipalities for peanut have an average of two to three women elected and involved in municipal
government (Fig. 9). A very similar panorama happens for the Inter-Andean valleys where potato is distributed (Fig. 10).
The highest number is 100% for Choque Cota municipality in Oruro. This is where Chenopodium hircinum and
Chenopodium hircinum subsp. eu-hircinum grow (Fig 11). For the synthesis, the range for this variable was divided again
in four categories: from 20 to 40% (), 41 to 60% (), 61 to 80% () and from 81 to 100% ().

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Fig. 9 Percent of women involved in local Fig. 10 Percent of women involved in local
government for peanut distribution government for potato distribution

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Fig. 11 Percent of women involved in local government C. Fig. 12 Percent of women involved in local government C.
hircinum hircinum subsp. catamarcensis

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Percent of workers involved in agriculture activity

Except for La Paz, El Alto, Oruro, Sucre and Santa Cruz, the municipalities that I chose for this analysis are rural
municipalities. In general all rural municipalities have a larger percent of people involved in agricultural activity. Urban
municipalities have other activities as priority like construction, commerce and retail. The difference among workers is that
in the eastern part (Fig. 13) where peanut grows, agriculture is done in an extensive manner. In the areas where potato
grows (Fig. 14), agriculture is intensive and usually done in smaller scale than in the eastern part. Andean region where
quinoa grows (Fig. 15) has more subsistence agriculture activity.

The lowest value for this variable is 12.8% and the highest is 84%. The scale was divided in four categories: 12.8
to 30.6% (), 30.7 to 48.4% (), 48.5 to 66.2% () and 66.3 to 84% ().

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Fig. 13 Percent of workers involved in Fig. 14 Percent of workers involved in
agriculture activity for peanut distribution agriculture activity for potato distribution

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Fig. 15 Percent of workers involved in agriculture activity for C. Fig. 16 Percent of workers involved in agriculture activity for C.
hircinum hircinum subsp. catamarcensis

Land Tenure

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 Land tenure is an uneven process that takes place mainly in the Lowlands of the east part (Fig. 17). This is a
positive variable for municipalities where peanut is distributed. For potato (Fig. 18), most municipalities have a low percent
of land tenure process. Municipalities where quinoa grows (Fig. 19 and 20), have a mix of municipalities whit a high
percent of land with tenure process and municipalities whit a low percent of their land under this process.

The lowest value for this variable is 0% and the highest is 96.5%. The four categories used for the synthesis were:
0 to 24% (), 25 to 48% (), 49 to 72% () and 73 to 96.5 ().

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Fig. 17 Percent of land assigned with tenure Fig. 18 Percent of land assigned with tenure
for peanut distribution for potato distribution

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Fig. 19 Percent of land assigned with tenure for C. hircinum Fig. 20 Percent of land assigned with tenure for C. hircinum subsp.
catamarcensis

Mine concessions

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 This variable is not a threat for peanut (Fig. 21). Mining activity in this part of Bolivia is not significant. The
municipalities where potato distribution takes place have few mining concession areas (Fig. 22). However, in the high
Andean region, there are more mining concession areas (Fig. 23 and 24). The municipalities in this area do not have
mining concessions that go over the 55% from their land.

It is important to mention that for this variable the use of colors has changed, where black represents the lowest
percent and white is equivalent to the highest percent. The lowest value for this variable is 0% and the highest is 44%.
The four categories used in the synthesis were: 0 to 11% (), 12 to 22% (), 23 to 33% () and 34 to 44% ().

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Fig. 21 Percent of mine concessions for Fig. 22 Percent of mine concessions for
peanut distribution potato distribution

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Fig. 23 Percent of mine concessions for C. hircinum Fig. 24 Percent of mine concessions for C. hircinum subsp.
catamarcensis

Oil

concessions

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 This variable behaves opposite from mine concessions. Municipalities for peanut have higher percent of their land
with permission for oil activity. This can reach more than 80% of their land with this kind of permission (Fig. 25). The
municipalities where potato is distributed (Fig. 26) have a positive outcome from this variable, as there are no concessions
for oil activity. In the case of quinoa (Fig. 27 and 28), just two municipalities have low percent of their land under oil
concessions.

The color scale for this variable is reverse from the other variables. Black is assigned to low percent and white to
high percent of oil concessions. The highest value for this variable is 99.95% and the lowest is 0%. I also used four
categories that later are shown in the synthesis part. The categories are: 0 to 25% (), 26 to 50% (), 51 to 75% ()
and 76 to 100% ()

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Fig. 25 Percent of oil concessions for Fig. 26 Percent of oil concessions for potato
peanut distribution distribution

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Fig. 27 Percent of oil concessions for C. hircinum Fig. 28 Percent of oil concessions for C. hircinum subsp.
catamarcensis

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