Peace Is Not Enough: The Arab-Israeli Economic and Demographic Crises

CSIS_______________________________
Center for Strategic and International Studies

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Peace is Not Enough:

The Arab-Israeli Economic and
Demographic Crises
Part Two
Population Growth, Fertility and Population

Doubling Rates, Regional Trends, National
Trends, and the "Youth Explosion"
Anthony H. Cordesman
Co-Director, Middle East Program
February, 1998
Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved. Not be copied or excerpted without the written permission
of the author.
Arab-Israeli Trends: Peace is Not Enough 3/2/98 Page 2
Table of Contents
TOTAL POPULATION GROWTH PRESENTS AS GREAT A THREAT AS WAR AND THE FAILURE
OF ECONOMIC REFORM ................................................................................................................................ 4
ARAB-ISRAELI COMPARATIVE TOTAL POPULATION IN 1980 AND 1995....................................................................... 5
CIA ESTIMATE OF POPULATION TRENDS IN 1996...................................................................................................... 6
COMPARATIVE TOTAL POPULATION IN 1996............................................................................................................. 7
ARAB-ISRAELI ETHNIC AND RELIGIOUS DIVISIONS .................................................................................................... 8
COMPARATIVE TOTAL LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 1996 .................................................................................................... 9
POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 1985-1995............................................................................................................... 10
FERTILITY AND DOUBLING RATES AND THE POPULATION MOMENTUM BOMB........................ 11
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU ESTIMATE OF RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE IN THE POPULATION IN 1996 ............. 12
THE POPULATION DOUBLING RATE BY COUNTRY IN 1996....................................................................................... 13
POPULATION MOMENTUM ..................................................................................................................................... 14
WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE TOTAL FERTILITY RATES IN THE LEVANT: 1980-1995 ........................................... 15
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU ESTIMATE OF FERTILITY RATES IN 1996 ............................................................. 16
FUTURE REGIONAL TRENDS ...................................................................................................................... 17
WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION GROWTH RATE: 1980-2010 ............................................................. 18
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION OF ARAB STATES:............................................... 19
1996-2025............................................................................................................................................................ 19
FUTURE TRENDS IN EGYPT AND SYRIA................................................................................................... 20
EGYPT AND SYRIA PRESENT SERIOUS PROBLEMS .................................................................................................... 21
THE MOMENTUM BOMB: ABSOLUTE GROWTH IN ADDED POPULATION EGYPT AND SYRIA: 1990-2010:.................... 22
ESTIMATED TRENDS IN POPULATION OF EGYPT AND SYRIA DURING 1990-2030....................................................... 23
FUTURE TRENDS ISRAEL, JORDAN, GAZA AND THE WEST BANK AND LEBANON....................... 24
POPULATION PRESSURES WILL GROW IN GAZA, ISRAEL, JORDAN, AND WEST BANK: ................................................ 25
WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION GROWTH RATE IN THE LEVANT: 1980-2010...................................... 26
WORLD BANK ESTIMATE OF THE POPULATION OF THE LEVANT: 1980-2010............................................................. 27
POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU ESTIMATE OF INCREASE IN THE POPULATION OF THE ARAB LEVANT: 1996-2025.. 28
ESTIMATED TRENDS IN POPULATION OF ISRAELI, JORDAN, GAZA, AND WEST BANK ................................................ 29
DURING 1980-2010............................................................................................................................................... 29
ESTIMATED TRENDS IN POPULATION OF ISRAEL, JORDAN, GAZA, WEST BANK, AND LEBANON DURING 1990-2030... 30
ESTIMATED TRENDS IN POPULATION OF THE ARAB-ISRAELI RING STATES DURING 1990-2030 ................................. 31
THE "YOUTH EXPLOSION" ......................................................................................................................... 32
ARAB-ISRAELI YOUTH........................................................................................................................................... 33
COMPARATIVE CIA ESTIMATE OF THE "YOUTH RATE" ........................................................................................... 34
ALTERNATIVE VIEW OF THE YOUTH RATE.............................................................................................................. 35
ARAB-ISRAELI DIRECT UNEMPLOYMENT IN 1995.................................................................................................... 36
ESTIMATED COMPARATIVE DIRECT AND DISGUISED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN 1996: A ROUGH ESTIMATE ............... 37
COMPARATIVE NEW JOBS THAT MUST BE CREATED EACH YEAR ............................................................................ 38
COMPARATIVE NEW JOBS THAT MUST BE CREATED EACH YEAR LESS EGYPT ......................................................... 39
Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH: MEASURABLE INDICES OF SOCIAL CHANGE

AND STRESS..................................................................................................................................................... 40
MINIMAL COMPETITIVENESS FOR YOUTH: PERCENTAGE OF SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT .............................. 41
LITERACY RATES .................................................................................................................................................. 42
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF MIDDLE EASTERN YOUTH: INFORMATION AGE AND LEVEL OF MEDIA
SOPHISTICATION ................................................................................................................................................... 43
ARAB-ISRAELI TELEPHONE LINES PER 1,000 PEOPLE .............................................................................................. 44
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF MIDDLE EASTERN YOUTH: COMPUTERS AND FAX MACHINES BY COUNTRY ..... 45
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF MIDDLE EASTERN YOUTH: COMPUTERS AND FAX MACHINES LESS ISRAEL....... 46
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF ARAB YOUTH: CURRENT RATE OF URBANIZATION AND EXPOSURE TO URBAN
MEDIA.................................................................................................................................................................. 47
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF ARAB YOUTH: GROWING URBANIZATION AND EXPOSURE TO URBAN MEDIA.... 48
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH: GROWING HYPER-URBANIZATION IN CITIES OF ONE MILLION OR MORE49
GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH: DECLINE IN PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL WORK FORCE INVOLVED IN
AGRICULTURE: 1970 VERSUS 1995 ....................................................................................................................... 50
THE IGNORANCE FACTOR: PERCENT OF ADULT ILLITERACY.................................................................................... 51

Part Eight
Total Population Growth Presents

as Great a Threat as War and the Failure of Economic
Reform
No country has economic growth that solidly outpaces

its rise in population.
Demographics combine with the failure in economic
reform to stifle improvements in living standards.
Gross over-population and over-urbanization could
become critical threats by 2010-2030.
Population growth in Gaza, Syria, and the West Bank
represent the most threatening trends.

Arab-Israeli Comparative Total Population in 1980 and 1995

(Millions)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Egy pt I sr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a West
Bank &
Gaza
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Bank Atlas, 1997, pp. 36-37, and World
Development Report, 1997, pp. 220-221.

CIA Estimate of Population Trends in 1996
Total Pop. Growth Life Fertility Literacy

Population 0-14 Rate Expectancy Rate Rate (%)
(%)
Arab-Israeli
Egypt 63,575,107 37 1.91 61.43 3.58 51.4
Israel 5,421,995 29 2.11 78.01 2.77 95
Jordan 4,212,152 44 2.65 72.48 5.1 86.6
Lebanon 3,776,317 36 2.16 69.99 3.24 92.4
Syria 15,608,648 47 3.37 67.13 5.91 70.8
Total/Average
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the CIA World Factbook, 1996, April, 1997.

Comparative Total Population in 1996

(In Millions)
Egy pt
Isr ael
Popul at i on Ref er ence

Bur eau
CIA
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from The CIA World Factbook, 1996, April 1997; Population Reference
Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave.
NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009; and the World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, p. 14.

Arab-Israeli Ethnic and Religious Divisions
Ethnic Religious Labor
Egypt 90% Eastern Hametic 94% Muslim (Sunni) 36% State & armed forces
10% Greek, Italian, 6% Coptic & Other 34% Agricluture
Syrian, Lebanese 20% Private service &
manufacturing
Gaza Strip 98.8% Palestinian Arab 99% Muslim (Sunni) 32% Comm & Indust
0.2% Jewish 0.7% Christian 24.4% Construction
(Arabic, Hebrew 0.2% Jewish 25.5% Service
English) 18.1% Agriculture
Israel 83% Jewish 82% Judaism 29.3% Public services

17% Arab & Other 14% Muslim (Sunni) 22.8% Indus & Mining
2% Christian 12.8% Commmerce
(Hebrew, Arabic, 2% Druze & other 9.5% Finance & Bus
English) 6.8% Trans & Comun
5.8% Personal serv.
5.5% Agriculture
1% Elec. & Water
Jordan 55% Palestinian Arab 92% Sunni 20% Agriculture

43% Transjordanian 8% Christian 20% Manu & mining
Arab
1% Circassian
1% Armenian
(Arabic, English)
Lebanon 95% Arab 75% Muslim 79% Comm, Indust,

4% Armenian 25% Christian Services
1% Other (5 Islamic sects, 11% Agriculture
(Arabic, French, 6 Catholic sects, 10% Government
Armenian, English) 4 Orthodox sects,
Potestants, Jews)
Syria 90.3% Arab 74% Sunni 36% Government

9.7% Kurds, Armen., 16% Druze, Alawite & 32% Agriculture
& Other Other Muslim 32% Indus &
(Arabic, Kurdish, 10% Christian Construction
Armenian, Aramaic, - Jewish
Circassian, French)
West Bank 88% Palestinian Arab 80% Muslim (Sunni) 22.4% Agriculture
12% Jewish 12% Jewish 24.2% Construction
(Arabic) 8% Christian & Other 29.8% Comm & Bus
(Hebrew) 23.6% Service & Other
(English)
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the CIA, World Factbook, 1996, and IISS, Military Balance,
1996-1997.

Comparative Total Life Expectancy in 1996

(In years; Female rates exceed male rates by 2-4 years in all countries)
Dev el oped Wor l d
Wor l d
Dev el opi ng Wor l d Popul at i on

Ref er ence
Bur eau
A r ab Wor l d
CI A
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from The CIA World Factbook, 1996, April 1997; Population Reference
Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave.
NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009; and the World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, p. 14.

Population Growth Rate: 1985-1995

(Percentage of Average Annual Growth)
Popul at i on
Ref er ence
Bur eau: Rat e of
Egy pt
Nat ur al
Incr ease: 1 9 9 5
CIA : 1 9 9 5
Isr ael
Wor l d Bank:
1980- 1990
J or dan
Wor l d Bank:
1990- 1995
Lebanon
Wor l d Bank:
1985- 1995
West Bank
Gaza
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.1;
Population Reference Bureau - telecon, April 1997; CIA World Factbook, 1996; World Bank, World Development
Indicators, 220-221.

Part Nine
Fertility and Doubling Rates and the Population

Momentum Bomb
Gross trends in the population doubling rate are not

worse than in the rest of the world, but the rest of the
world is not a desert.
Population momentum rates represent a major threat
that requires massive birth control programs.
Declines in growth rates could be threatened by high
female fertility rate.
Gross over-population and over-urbanization could
become critical threats by 2010-2030.

Population Reference Bureau Estimate of Rate of Natural Increase in the Population in

1996
(Birth rate minus death rate, implying natural rate of population growth less immigration)
Dev el oped Wor l d
Wor l d
Dev el opi ng Wor l d
A r ab Wor l d
Egy pt
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 1 2 3 4 5
The Natural Increase Rate of the Developed World is 0.1%
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Population Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population,
December, 1996, prepared by Farzaneh Roudi; 1875 Connecticut Ave. NW. Suite 520, Washington, DC, 2009.

The Population Doubling Rate by Country in 1996

(Time for Population to Double at Current Growth Rate)
Wor l d
A r ab Wor l d
Egy pt
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 10 20 30 40 50
Developed World doubles every 501 years

Population Momentum
(Ratio of the population when zero growth finally occurs relative to the population in 1995, assuming that fertility
rate is at the replacement level in 1995 and remains at that level)
Hi gh Income
East A si a
Crisis
Level
= 1.7
Low Income
MENA
Egy pt
J or dan
Lebanon
Problem
Gaza & West Bank Level
= 1.3
Sy r i a
0 0 .2 0 .4 0 .6 0 .8 1 1 .2 1 .4 1 .6 1 .8
The Momentum Ratio of the High Income World is 1.1
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997. pp. 38-41.

World Bank Estimate of the Total Fertility Rates in the Levant: 1980-1995
(Births Per Woman)
Hi gh I ncome St at es
1995
Egy pt
1980
I sr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Sy r i a
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Section 2.1.

Population Reference Bureau Estimate of Fertility Rates in 1996

(The average number of children per woman assuming that current age specific birth rates remain constant
through the child bearing years of 15-49)
Dev el oped Wor l d
Wor l d
A r ab Wor l d
Egy pt
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
The Fertility Rate of the Developed World is 1.6%

Part Ten
Future Regional Trends
Projections present serious problems for all countries.

Only a limited amount can now be done to redress the
momentum of past high birth rates.

World Bank Estimate of the Population Growth Rate: 1980-2010

1995-
Egy pt 2010
1980-
1995
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 1 2 3 4 5

Population Reference Bureau Estimate of the Population of Arab States:

1996-2025
(In Millions)
Egy pt
J or dan
Lebanon
2025
2010
Gaza & West Bank 1996
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100

Part Eleven
Future Trends in Egypt and Syria
Declining growth rates in Egypt are offset by population

momentum, water problems, and over-urbanization.
Syria has wasted a decade with half-hearted economic
reform, and faces major population problems.
Syria has not corrected its growth rate problems.
Infrastructure issues will overtake water as a
population-driven problem.

Egypt and Syria Present Serious Problems

Egypt remains a critical case, and may be little growth in real per capita
income.
Grew from 54 million in 1990 to 58 million in 1995.
Will rise to 63 million in 2000, 67 million in 2005, and 73 million in

2010.
Population growth seriously threatens Syriaís development:
Grew from 12 million in 1990 to 14 million in 1995.
Will rise to 17 million in 2000, 20 million in 2005, and 23 million in

2010.
Will impose major construction, infrastructure, water, education, job creation,

import, desertification, and social stability problems on all countries in the
area.
Growth in real per capita income often very limited.

The Momentum Bomb: Absolute Growth in Added Population Egypt and Syria: 1990-
2010:
(/World Bank Estimate Made in 1997 in Millions)
35
30
25
Egy pt
20
15
10
5
Sy r i a
0
2010
1995
1980
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, pp. 34-36.

Estimated Trends in Population of Egypt and Syria During 1990-2030

(in 1,000s)
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
Egy pt
Sy r i a
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Population Projections, 1994-1995, Washington, World
Bank, 1994 and material provided by the CIA.

Part Twelve
Future Trends Israel, Jordan, Gaza and the West

Bank and Lebanon
Jordan, West Bank, and Gaza will growth to crisis point

as a result of existing momentum.
Population momentum rates represent a major threat
that requires massive birth control programs.
Lebanonís growth rate slower: Will rise from 4 to 5
million during 1995-2010.
Gross figures disguise sharp cultural issue in Israel due

to higher birth rates among oriental Jews.

Population Pressures will Grow in Gaza, Israel,

Jordan, and West Bank:
Population growth seriously threatens Jordanís development:
Grew from 3.2 million in 1990 to 4.4 million in 1995.
Will rise to 5.1 million in 2000, 5.9 million in 2005, and 6.7 million in
2010.
Israel will only rise from 4.6 to 6.8 million.
However, population growth seriously threatens Gazaís development unless

integrated into broader economic region:
Grew from 610,000 in 1990 to 795,000 in 1995.
Will rise to 953,000 in 2000, 1.15 million in 2005, and 1.37 million in
2010.
Same true of West Bank:
Grew from 916,000 in 1990 to 1.15 million in 1995.
Will rise to 1.37 million in 2000, 1.60 million in 2005, and 1.84 million
in 2010.

World Bank Estimate of the Population Growth Rate in the Levant: 1980-2010
Hi gh I ncome Nat i ons

1995-
2010
Egy pt
1980-
1995
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Sy r i a
West Bank & Gaza
0 1 2 3 4 5

World Bank Estimate of the Population of the Levant: 1980-2010

(In Millions)
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
2010
1995
1980
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 5 10 15 20 25

Population Reference Bureau Estimate of Increase in the Population of the Arab Levant:
1996-2025
(In Millions)
J or dan
2025
Lebanon 2010
1996
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Estimated Trends in Population of Israeli, Jordan, Gaza, and West Bank

During 1980-2010
(in 1,000s)
I sr ael
4
3
J or dan
2
1
West Bank & Gaza
0
1980
1995
2010
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, Washington, World Bank,
1997.

Estimated Trends in Population of Israel, Jordan, Gaza, West Bank, and Lebanon During
1990-2030
(in 1,000s)
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Estimated Trends in Population of the Arab-Israeli Ring States During 1990-2030

(in 1,000s)
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
J or dan
2000
Isr ael
1000
0 West Bank
1990 1995
2000 Gaza
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

Part Thirteen
The "Youth Explosion"
Over 40% of the population is 14 years or younger.

Youth rate drives population momentum problem.
Over 20% of population would normally leave home in
next five years.
Extremely high under and un-employment problems are
creating a generation with nowhere to go.

Arab-Israeli Youth
(Percent of Total Population 14 Years or Younger)
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Egy pt I s r ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a Gaza West
Bank
Youth of 14 Years or Less

% of Total 37 29 44 36 47 52 45
Male 11,970,197 793,712 949,822 687,631 3,768,671 244,026 332,628
Female 11,462,689 765,735 903,043 662,100 3,557,474 231,976 315,968
Annually
Enetering Labor
Force
Males 660,453 50,508 45,406 - 164,598 - -
Females - 48,176 - - - - -
Fertility Rate 3.58 2.77 5.1 3.24 5.91 7.79 5.2

Birth Rate 28.18 20.31 36.67 27.93 38.56 50.67 38.78
Growth Rate 1.91 2.11 2.65 2.16 3.37 6.79 4.99
Infant Mortality 72.8 8.5 31.5 36.7 40.0 27.5 28.6
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from CIA, World Factbook, 1996, April, 1997, CD ROM.

Comparative CIA Estimate of the "Youth Rate"

(Percentage of the Population Aged 14 Years or Less)
US
Developed Nations
Average 20%
Wor l d
Egy pt
1996
Lebanon
1995
Sy r i a
J or dan
World Average is
32%
West Bank
Gaza
Isr ael
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from CIA on-line Internet data base for the World Factbook.

Alternative View of the Youth Rate

(Percentage of the Population which is Under 15 years of Age)
Developed Rate is
20%
Dev el oped Wor l d
Developing World is
35%
Wor l d
Arab World
A r ab Wor l d is 42%
25% is
Probable
Egy pt Maximum Long-
Term Stability
Rate
J or dan
35%
Represents
Lebanon High Risk Rate
for Arab
Countries
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 10 20 30 40 50
The Youth Rate of the Developed World is 20%

Arab-Israeli Direct Unemployment in 1995

(In percent)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Egy pt I s r ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a Gaza West
Bank
Unemployment
Rate (%) 20 6.3 16 30 8 30-45 25-30
Labor
Force 16,000,000 1,900,000 600,000 650,000 4,700,000 - -
Occupation by Percent
Agriculture 34 3.5 7.4 12.0 22.0 20.0 21.8
Commerce - 13.9 10.5 - - 14.9 12.6
Construction - 6.5 10.0 - - 33.4 28.2
Finance - 10.4 - - - - -
Industry 20 22.1 11.0 28.0 36.0 - -
Public 36 29.3 - - - - -
Services - 8.0 50.2 60.0 42 21.7 22.9
Transport - 6.3 8.7 - - - -
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from CIA, World Factbook, 1996, April, 1997, CD ROM.

Estimated Comparative Direct and Disguised Unemployment Rate in 1996: A Rough

Estimate
(Rate measured in Percent)
Egy pt Di sgui sed
Di r ect
( CIA )
Lebanon
Sy r i a
J or dan
West Bank
Gaza
Isr ael
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Rough estimate by Anthony H. Cordesman based on CIA and World Bank estimates for 1996. Disguised includes
public sector, civil service, and private sector jobs with no use economic output.

Comparative New Jobs That Must Be Created Each Year
Egy pt
Lebanon
Sy r i a
J or dan
West Bank
New Mal es J obs Per Year New Femal e J obs
Gaza
Isr ael
0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from CIA on-line Internet data base, estimate is for 1996.

Comparative New Jobs That Must Be Created Each Year Less Egypt
Lebanon
Sy r i a
J or dan
West Bank
New Mal es J obs Per Year New Femal e J obs
Gaza
Isr ael
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from CIA on-line Internet data base, estimate is for 1996.

Part Fourteen
Guessing at the Expectations of Youth: Measurable

Indices of Social Change and Stress
Highly educated youth by global standards, although

not competitive with developed world.
Very high literacy rates supplemented by broad
exposure to media.
High urbanization and high exposure to media create
high expectations, consumer demand.
Decline in agriculture + urbanization end much of
traditional "safety net."
Illiteracy/different values in older population adds to
problem.

Minimal Competitiveness for Youth: Percentage of Secondary School Enrollment

(Percentage of the Population in Secondary School which is 12-17 years of Age)
Dev el oped Wor l d
Wor l d
A r ab Wor l d
Egy pt
J or dan
Men
Lebanon
Women
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100
The Secondary Education Rate of the Developed World is 92-95%

Literacy Rates
(Percentage Literate: Often Based on "Literacy" at graduation or non-statistical estimates. True adult literacy rate
often much lower)
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the on-line edition of the CIA World Factbook, 1996, April 1997.

Guessing at the Expectations of Middle Eastern Youth: Information Age and Level of
Media Sophistication
(Items Per 1,000 People in 1995)
East A si a
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
Tel epohne
Li nes
Mobi l e Phones
Lebanon
TVs
Radi os
Gaza & West Bank
New spaper s
Sy r i a
0 100 200 300 400 500

Arab-Israeli Telephone Lines Per 1,000 People
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Bank Atlas, 1997, pp. 42-43.

Guessing at the Expectations of Middle Eastern Youth: Computers and Fax Machines by
Country
East A si a
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
I nt er net Host s per 1 0 , 0 0 0
Lebanon PCs
Fax Machi nes
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Guessing at the Expectations of Middle Eastern Youth: Computers and Fax Machines Less
Israel
East A si a
Egy pt
J or dan
Lebanon
Int er net Host s per 1 0 , 0 0 0
Gaza & West Bank PCs
Fax Machi nes
Sy r i a
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Guessing at the Expectations of Arab Youth: Current Rate of Urbanization and Exposure
to Urban Media
(Percentage of the Population Now Living in Urban Areas)
Dev el oped Wor l d
Wor l d
A r ab Wor l d
Egy pt
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100
Over 90% of the Arab world has daily access to at least a transistor radio.

Guessing at the Expectations of Arab Youth: Growing Urbanization and Exposure to

Urban Media
(Percentage of the Population Now Living in Urban Areas)
MENA Regi on
1995
1980
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Sy r i a
0 20 40 60 80 100
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, 3.6 and Population
Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996.

Guessing at the Expectations of Youth: Growing Hyper-Urbanization in Cities of One

Million or More
(Percentage of the Population Living in Urban Agglomerations of 1 Million or More )
Hi gh Income
East A si a
2015
MENA Regi on 1995
1980
Egy pt
Isr ael
J or dan
Lebanon
Sy r i a
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, 3.6 and Population
Reference Bureau report on Arab World Population, December, 1996.

Guessing at the Expectations of Youth: Decline in Percentage of Total Work Force

Involved in Agriculture: 1970 Versus 1995
(Percentage of the Labor Force)
Egy pt
Isr ael
1995
1970
J or dan
Lebanon
Gaza & West Bank
Sy r i a
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Arrows show countries where major shifts are likely to result in major increases in expectations.
Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from the World Bank, World Development Indicators, 1997, April, 1997, pp.
14-17.

The Ignorance Factor: Percent of Adult Illiteracy

( as a Percent of Total: 1995)
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Egy pt Isr ael J or dan Lebanon Sy r i a West
Bank &
Gaza
Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from World Bank, World Bank Development Report, 1997, pp. 214-
216.

Peace Is Not Enough: The Arab-Israeli Economic and Demographic Crises

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CSIS_______________________________

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Peace is Not Enough:

Population Growth, Fertility and Population

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

GUESSING AT THE EXPECTATIONS OF YOUTH: MEASURABLE INDICES OF SOCIAL CHANGE

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Total Population Growth Presents

No country has economic growth that solidly outpaces

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Arab-Israeli Comparative Total Population in 1980 and 1995

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

CIA Estimate of Population Trends in 1996

Total Pop. Growth Life Fertility Literacy

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Comparative Total Population in 1996

Popul at i on Ref er ence

Gaza & West Bank

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Arab-Israeli Ethnic and Religious Divisions

Ethnic Religious Labor

Israel 83% Jewish 82% Judaism 29.3% Public services

Jordan 55% Palestinian Arab 92% Sunni 20% Agriculture

Lebanon 95% Arab 75% Muslim 79% Comm, Indust,

Syria 90.3% Arab 74% Sunni 36% Government

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Comparative Total Life Expectancy in 1996

Dev el oped Wor l d

Dev el opi ng Wor l d Popul at i on

Gaza & West Bank

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Population Growth Rate: 1985-1995

Gaza & West Bank

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Fertility and Doubling Rates and the Population

Gross trends in the population doubling rate are not

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Population Reference Bureau Estimate of Rate of Natural Increase in the Population in

Dev el oped Wor l d

Dev el opi ng Wor l d

Gaza & West Bank

The Natural Increase Rate of the Developed World is 0.1%

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

The Population Doubling Rate by Country in 1996

Dev el opi ng Wor l d

Gaza & West Bank

Developed World doubles every 501 years

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

The Momentum Ratio of the High Income World is 1.1

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Population Reference Bureau Estimate of Fertility Rates in 1996

Dev el oped Wor l d

Dev el opi ng Wor l d

Gaza & West Bank

The Fertility Rate of the Developed World is 1.6%

Copyright Anthony H. Cordesman, all rights reserved.

Future Regional Trends